Starting rotation options available now

[squally1313]

5 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

My thing with Alcantara is I worry that he just wont be the guy were hoping for to finish out this season.

I think what he has done so far will continue as he is working his way back from his surgery and missing a full season, now next season he can be much better and closer to his normal self.

I was ready to disagree with you, but after digging in a little bit I might be falling into the same camp. Current Alcantara is probably the back end innings eater you want, but with his extra year of control and future upside you're probably paying the 'playoff starter' premium and you might not able to/want to do that twice. 

He's getting real unlucky on sequencing, and the walk rate is back to being pretty elite, but the strikeout rate, especially given how many batters he's facing, just isn't there, and he's not enough of a ground ball monster to overcome that in my opinion.

[KCCub]

7 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I was ready to disagree with you, but after digging in a little bit I might be falling into the same camp. Current Alcantara is probably the back end innings eater you want, but with his extra year of control and future upside you're probably paying the 'playoff starter' premium and you might not able to/want to do that twice. 

He's getting real unlucky on sequencing, and the walk rate is back to being pretty elite, but the strikeout rate, especially given how many batters he's facing, just isn't there, and he's not enough of a ground ball monster to overcome that in my opinion.

Yea if you go Sandy, the hope would be to get the best rental possible (Kelly, etc) to help compete this season. For me, it's the two extra years of control you get with Sandy that is the most appealing (Losing Jamo + Boyd after next season). The Cubs defense + pitching infrastructure seems like an optimal match and you're buying at the lowest point possible. I have other multi year options ahead of him on my wishlist, but I wouldn't complain if he's the multi year fish we land.

[Dfan25]

I don’t think the Marlins will deal Alcantara  They aren’t going to sell low . The starter they will move is Cabrera . 

[squally1313]

26 minutes ago, KCCub said:

Yea if you go Sandy, the hope would be to get the best rental possible (Kelly, etc) to help compete this season. For me, it's the two extra years of control you get with Sandy that is the most appealing (Losing Jamo + Boyd after next season). The Cubs defense + pitching infrastructure seems like an optimal match and you're buying at the lowest point possible. I have other multi year options ahead of him on my wishlist, but I wouldn't complain if he's the multi year fish we land.

Forgot about the option, good call. And yeah, I love the idea of Alcantara for the next two years, but I just don't know if right now is the time to make that splash because I don't think 2025 Alcantara, and the opportunity cost required, is the right use of resources to optimize this year's chances of success. 

[KCCub]

 

[Geographyhater8888]

I assume the Marlins will ask for less for Cabrera assuming they’re not selling low on Alcantara?

[Geographyhater8888]

11 hours ago, KCCub said:

 

Any word on what he’ll cost?

[Geographyhater8888]

Joe Ryan in play at all?

[Tryptamine]

Ryan or Cabrera would be slam dunks. Pair them up with a rental like Kelly or Lugo and this rotation suddenly looks very strong. 

[KCCub]

 

[Jason Ross]

13 minutes ago, KCCub said:

 

I just spent the last hour deep diving on Charlie Morton for a front-page article, so when I came and saw "Rays acquire RHP from Orioles" I about threw an absolute horsefeathers fit.

[KCCub]

 

Having a solid year in terms of results. Under the hood metrics aren't great however. If he doesn't hit 140 IP this season, the team has a $14m club option. If he hits 140 IP, it turns into a $19m mutual option. 

[Tryptamine]

The Cubs certainly do love guys who don't miss a lot of bats. It's really bizarre. 

SP: 7.63 K/9 (23rd)

RP: 7.40 K/9 (30th)

Overall: 7.53 K/9 (27th)

Giolito this year 7.96 K/9.

Edited July 10, 2025 by Tryptamine

[squally1313]

Just now, Tryptamine said:

The Cubs certainly do love guys who don't miss a lot of bats. It's really bizarre. 

SP: 7.63 K/9 (23rd)

RP: 7.40 K/9 (30th)

Giolito this year 7.96 K/9.

I'm guessing it's somewhat on purpose from a value perspective when you consider how good the defense is. And it's coming with the second lowest walk rate in baseball (behind the Twins), which is pretty imperative if you're going to commit to this. But yeah, some reliever with a 13K/9 rate would be a fun add. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Another thing to keep in our heads is that large gaps in comparing teams is only so much in nominal terms.  The difference between the 2025 Cubs current K% and being in the top 5 is one K every 33ish hitters, or 3 K's every 2 games or so.  It's the magnitude of difference that when you think about it in those terms, is fairly easily offset by differences in batted ball type, contact quality, walk reduction, health, etc.  Sure enough, the Cubs are 2nd in BB%, and as a result, 9th in WHIP.

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Another thing to keep in our heads is that large gaps in comparing teams is only so much in nominal terms.  The difference between the 2025 Cubs current K% and being in the top 5 is one K every 33ish hitters, or 3 K's every 2 games or so.  It's the magnitude of difference that when you think about it in those terms, is fairly easily offset by differences in batted ball type, contact quality, walk reduction, health, etc.  Sure enough, the Cubs are 2nd in BB%, and as a result, 9th in WHIP.

Fair, and the walk rate is the most important part. But to the original point, it's been trending in the wrong direction (7.0 K/9 last 30 days, 6.77 last 14 days). Looking at the top three pitchers in K/9 from everyone who has thrown an inning this year, Brown is on summer vacation, Hodge is hurt and/or broken, Steele is gone. Boyd is the only starter over 7 K/9, for the Brewers (as an example) it's everyone except Quintana. 

Again, the walks and defense offset it and have kept the overall performance mostly average. But it definitely stands out. 

[Tryptamine]

I think I'm kind of all in on Charlie Morton. I definitely don't want him as the only pitcher the Cubs get, but if they're grabbing a 2nd pitcher who is a low cost rental, he's kind of ideal. I don't know what happened to him after his incredibly rough start but since May 10, he has been absolutely killing it. 

Since May 10, not including today's 6IP 4H 1ER 3 BB 4K win over the Mets

45.2IP  2.76ERA  2.73 FIP  3.15 xFIP  11.04 K/9   2.56 BB/9

 

 

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I think I'm kind of all in on Charlie Morton. I definitely don't want him as the only pitcher the Cubs get, but if they're grabbing a 2nd pitcher who is a low cost rental, he's kind of ideal. I don't know what happened to him after his incredibly rough start but since May 10, he has been absolutely killing it. 

Since May 10, not including today's 6IP 4H 1ER 3 BB 4K win over the Mets

45.2IP  2.76ERA  2.73 FIP  3.15 xFIP  11.04 K/9   2.56 BB/9

 

 

Yep, you can add him to the lower cost, rental pitcher to eat innings and lengthen your rotation. 

[Tryptamine]

12 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Yep, you can add him to the lower cost, rental pitcher to eat innings and lengthen your rotation. 

Part of me thinks Gallagher would be the ask knowing Baltimore's needs. I'm not sure I'm entirely ok with that, but that probably means it's reasonable. 

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Part of me thinks Gallagher would be the ask knowing Baltimore's needs. I'm not sure I'm entirely ok with that, but that probably means it's reasonable. 

That is probably true.

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, squally1313 said:

I'm guessing it's somewhat on purpose from a value perspective when you consider how good the defense is. And it's coming with the second lowest walk rate in baseball (behind the Twins), which is pretty imperative if you're going to commit to this.

Probably true.  Cubs seem to value guys who have command, which is much less teachable, whereas you can always teach a guy a new grip.  Defense can't defend against walks.

Guys with lots of Ks and low BB cost a lot of money, and the Cubs don't seem to invest in elite pitching.

[Jason Ross]

Mike Soroka was named in a Athletic piece by Mooney and Sharma and I really like that name. The ERA looks bad, but the Savant page tells a different story; he's lowered his arm angle, increased his walk rate (positively), added a MPH and some glove side run on the fastball. xFIP and xERA really like him. Added a cutter. His LOB% is comically low pitching in front of the worse defense in baseball.

Couple him with Cabrera. Expiring contract, should be cheap to acquire. 

[UMFan83]

If the top option available was a lefty would that be less attractive for you?  I saw Gore from the Nats mentioned in an article here recently.  No doubter to add a pitcher of his caliber with team control, but would it be an issue to have your top 3 starters entering a playoff series (Shota, Gore, Boyd) all being LHP?  For some matchups it might be an advantage but others it might be a death sentence. 

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, UMFan83 said:

If the top option available was a lefty would that be less attractive for you?  I saw Gore from the Nats mentioned in an article here recently.  No doubter to add a pitcher of his caliber with team control, but would it be an issue to have your top 3 starters entering a playoff series (Shota, Gore, Boyd) all being LHP?  For some matchups it might be an advantage but others it might be a death sentence. 

Handedness is a luxury, IMO. Gore is so good that if you can get Gore, you just do it and worry about having three lefties, or four of 'em next year, later. 

[UMFan83]

6 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Handedness is a luxury, IMO. Gore is so good that if you can get Gore, you just do it and worry about having three lefties, or four of 'em next year, later. 

Yeah makes sense.  Also just looking at the splits leaderboards, the top 4 teams vs. LHP in wRC+ are all in the AL (NYY, HOU, DET, BOS). 

The Dodgers are at 115, the Cubs are 2nd at 112 (surprise), and the Phillies are at 106.  Every other NL team is under 100.   Obviously Philly is above average but the only dangerous NL team IMO would be the Dodgers and they are dangerous regardless (119 wRC+ vs. RHP)

 

Edit: Should also mention, here are a few other NL Contenders vs. LHP:

Brewers - 98

Mets - 95

Padres - 91

Cardinals - 88

Reds - 79

Giants - 76

 

So if anything it may be an advantage to have 3 lefties topping the rotation this year.

Edited July 11, 2025 by UMFan83