Starting rotation options available now

[gflore34]

5 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Of the at least fairly reasonable options, not guys like Degrom who wont ever be available, I think I rank them like this at the moment

1) Joe Ryan-  He hits Arbitration next year and Minnesota is salary dumping getting ready for sale, that's the only reason he's possibly available.  Over the last two seasons he's posted a 3.24 ERA 3.37 FIP 3.49 xFIP. The cost would be damn near Mackenzie Gore high.

2) Pablo Lopez- Again, the Twins are looking to lower payroll. He's signed thru 2027 at 21.5M a year. This year he's posting a 2.82 ERA 2.99 FIP 3.54 xFIP. Cost would be high, but not quite as high as Ryan

3) Edward Cabrera- The performance isn't up there with Ryan or Lopez but the upside is probably even higher. He seems to be ironing out his notorious control issues with a career low 3.79 BB/9 this year. 3.41 ERA 3.83FIP 3.80 xFIP. He's not a free agent until 2029 so the cost would still be rather high

4) Seth Lugo- He's a FA at the end of the year which means he shouldn't cost too much. FIP and xFIP have never really loved him but he consistently puts up solid ERAs. 2.74 ERA 4.18 FIP 4.02 xFIP

5) Merrill Kelly- Another rental piece, who has consistently been at least good if not very good in 3 of the last 4 years. 3.55ERA 3.48 FIP  3.49 xFIP

6) Mitch Keller- He's actually a really solid pitcher, not great but good, I just get the impression that due to him being under control through 2028 at a reasonable 16.5M in '26, 18M in '27 and 20M in '28 that his price will be much higher than I can stomach. 3.64 ERA 3.24 FIP 3.93 xFIP 

7) Yusei Kikuchi- The Angels almost certainly aren't selling yet, but if they take a turn for the worst he's a guy I'd absolutely love the Cub pitch lab to get their hands on. I really wanted him in the offseason. He's under control through 2027 where he'll make 21M in '26 and '27. 2.81 ERA 3.79 FIP 4.00 xFIP.

 

Guys I want no part of:

1) Alcantara- The price tag is way too high for a guy who has been mediocre to miserable for a season and a half now

2) Gallen- I don't know if it's mechanics or injury but something is very wrong there in both movement and velocity

3) Eflin- He was hurt, came back still hurt and pitched terribly, now he's on the IL again. It's a shame, he was a guy I had my eye on a month or or two ago as an acquisition.

4) Sugano- His regression to his peripherals has been hard and fast

5) Heaney- K/9 way down, and surviving on a babip 41 points below his career average. I don't think he gives you anything that Wicks, Assad, etc. couldn't give you other than reliable starts. 

6) Marquez- Only if the Cubs have a time machine to go back 4 or 5 years

7)  Anderson- Same as Heaney, I don't think he gives the Cubs anything they couldn't find internally other than a guy who's a pretty solid bet to make his starts

 

Appears Lopez is on the the 60 day IL?  If so, I'd think he'd be removed from consideration by the Cubs.

[Tryptamine]

10 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Appears Lopez is on the the 60 day IL?  If so, I'd think he'd be removed from consideration by the Cubs.

I did not see he got moved to the 60 day on June 11. I thought he was still on the 15 day. Yeah, that more or less completely removes him. Surgery is almost certainly coming.

[PeanutPunch33]

Ryan would be great, but I feel like the window to make that trade was last off season, where he was coming off of a season ending injury and before he's currently having his best year as a pro.  That price will just be way too high 

This can't be the main move but if the Cubs want to move in on someone that I think they could fix, Tanner Houck is an interesting name.  He had a great year last year and this year... it's just all fallen apart for him 

2 more years of control, but an obvious risk because he has an ERA north of 8 this year lol

[Dfan25]

Bubic has only 1 year left after this one ? Thought he had more 

[Geographyhater8888]

Right handed corner infield platoon bats are as pressing of a need as a starting pitcher right now. They’ve been blanked by just about every left handed starter for the past month+.

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Right handed corner infield platoon bats are as pressing of a need as a starting pitcher right now. They’ve been blanked by just about every left handed starter for the past month+.

Outside of Cantillo last night (which, I actually think Counsell got a little caught out on. He thought he was an opener and used a RHP lineup against a LHP. As well, he planned on using McGuire all series in the game against a RHP before that RHP got busted for gambling) they've gone through the worst run you could imagine against lefties. I know we want to blame the Cubs offense solely, but some of that is the fact that they've had to hit against the likes of Skubal, Luzardo, Valdez...

Until last night, the worst LHP they had faced since the colander ticked over to June was Mathew Libratore who is the 22nd best SP in baseball this year.

I'm fully on board with getting a better LHP hitting bench option (we need one!), but I do think context matters in their struggles against LHP right now. It's a combination of both competition and their bench. 

[Geographyhater8888]

16 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Outside of Cantillo last night (which, I actually think Counsell got a little caught out on. He thought he was an opener and used a RHP lineup against a LHP. As well, he planned on using McGuire all series in the game against a RHP before that RHP got busted for gambling) they've gone through the worst run you could imagine against lefties. I know we want to blame the Cubs offense solely, but some of that is the fact that they've had to hit against the likes of Skubal, Luzardo, Valdez...

Until last night, the worst LHP they had faced since the colander ticked over to June was Mathew Libratore who is the 22nd best SP in baseball this year.

I'm fully on board with getting a better LHP hitting bench option (we need one!), but I do think context matters in their struggles against LHP right now. It's a combination of both competition and their bench. 

Every single left handed starter lowers their ERA vs a lineup scoring at a 5.3 rpg clip. Valdez had a 2.88 ERA going into the game on Sunday, not 0.00. Once again the Cubs couldn’t put runs on the board.

 

Hopefully it’s a funk and nothing deeper but the inconsistency can be largely traced to their horrific platoon splits. I’d love Bregman assuming he opts out to complete the lineup but that 70 wRC+ gap from Busch to Turner is 2 different lineups.

They’re not far away, addressing that and of course another starter closes any gap between the other playoff teams because it’s not as if the cubs have a lot of glaring holes. 

Edited July 4, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

Which prospects are most likely to be traded? I wish they had a prospect value chart like they have with the NFL draft and assign points to a player and prospects. Gallen and Suarez on a hypothetical trade would cost Cassie for example? 

[Jason Ross]

25 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Every single left handed starter lowers their ERA vs a lineup scoring at a 5.3 rpg clip. Valdez had a 2.88 ERA going into the game on Sunday, not 0.00. Once again the Cubs couldn’t put runs on the board.

 

Hopefully it’s a funk and nothing deeper but the inconsistency can be largely traced to their horrific platoon splits. I’d love Bregman assuming he opts out to complete the lineup but that 70 wRC+ gap from Busch to Turner is 2 different lineups.

They’re not far away, addressing that and of course another starter closes any gap between the other playoff teams because it’s not as if the cubs have a lot of glaring holes. 

It's as much competition as it is on the Cubs. We have this really bad habit of blaming the Cubs offense, but the pitcher controls just as much of the outcome as a hitter. Yes, the Cubs couldn't put runs on the board like we'd want, but Valdez, for example, was horsefeathers nasty. Sometimes you tip your cap. What can you do?

In terms of Bregman, we'll see. As well, Matt Shaw is showing really big signs of growth. The results have been highly unlucky over the year and especially recently. The EV's are popping (he's made a 4mph increase since a mechanical change) and has hit 31% of his hard hit balls in his last nine games. No shade to Bregman, he's been awesome, but he's also playing way over his xData. His wOBA is .403 but his xwOBA is .353. That's really good! But he had a 125 wRC+ two years ago with a similar wOBA. His 158 wRC+ is a positive luck. And he's going to be a starter, not a Turner replacement. Not knocking him, but the Cubs probably only have so many bullets in July and I just don't know if they'll go that route. Shaw is probably coming closer and closer to an average offensive 3b and a positive defender.

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Which prospects are most likely to be traded? I wish they had a prospect value chart like they have with the NFL draft and assign points to a player and prospects. Gallen and Suarez on a hypothetical trade would cost Cassie for example? 

There's no such thing, though. Draft picks are not players. How one team views, say, Owen Caissie, versus another is very different. There's no defined value.

Gallen has been terrible this year. We probably don't want him. His fastball has taken a significant step back, and he's been among the worst SP in the league. I'd far rather have Merrill Kelly. With that said, I'd hold off trading for Suarez like Bregman. I think Shaw is teetering on the breakout and I think the Cubs should shoot for a more controlled SP with the prospect value.

I wrote an article just this week on this topic, however, on names likely to be moved. You can check it out here.

 

[Geographyhater8888]

14 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

It's as much competition as it is on the Cubs. We have this really bad habit of blaming the Cubs offense, but the pitcher controls just as much of the outcome as a hitter. Yes, the Cubs couldn't put runs on the board like we'd want, but Valdez, for example, was horsefeathers nasty. Sometimes you tip your cap. What can you do?

In terms of Bregman, we'll see. As well, Matt Shaw is showing really big signs of growth. The results have been highly unlucky over the year and especially recently. The EV's are popping (he's made a 4mph increase since a mechanical change) and has hit 31% of his hard hit balls in his last nine games. No shade to Bregman, he's been awesome, but he's also playing way over his xData. His wOBA is .403 but his xwOBA is .353. That's really good! But he had a 125 wRC+ two years ago with a similar wOBA. His 158 wRC+ is a positive luck. And he's going to be a starter, not a Turner replacement. Not knocking him, but the Cubs probably only have so many bullets in July and I just don't know if they'll go that route. Shaw is probably coming closer and closer to an average offensive 3b and a positive defender.

Bregman being the starting third baseman for 3 months shouldn’t be a problem. He’ll play first vs lefties and Shaw will play third. If you want to complete the lineup he’s the guy as far as available bats. But really anyone will suffice if we’re talking strictly a platoon bat. 
 

during a playoff series against these pitchers there’l be a lol of cap tipping on your way to the offseason losing a best of series.

 

 

Edited July 4, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Bregman being the starting third baseman for 3 months shouldn’t be a problem. He’ll play first vs lefties and Shaw will play third. If you want to complete the lineup he’s the guy as far as available bats. But really anyone will suffice if we’re talking strictly a platoon bat. 
 

during a playoff series you’ll be facing a lot of pitchers you’ll be tipping you cap to on your way to the offseason losing a best of series.

 

 

How many games do you think Alex Bregman has ever started at 1b? How many innings do you think he's ever played at 1b? Answer in the spoiler below, if you'd like to play along with the game

Spoiler

Zero. He's never logged an inning at 1b.

The Cubs are not going to trade for someone to play 1b who has never played 1b. It isn't as cut and dry as "he'll figure it out". Maybe he can with a lot of work, but I doubt the Cubs are going to play that game with two months to go in the season. Bregman, as well, at 5"11 probably isn't the ideal candidate, either. 

The most likely answer is that the Cubs will acquire someone who can play 1b to platoon with Busch. Not someone they hope can maybe play 1b. 

 

[Geographyhater8888]

7 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

How many games do you think Alex Bregman has ever started at 1b? How many innings do you think he's ever played at 1b?

  Reveal hidden contents

Zero. He's never logged an inning at 1b. 

 

He’s just an example. He has some experience, you may or not be comfortable with it but where do you go from here? Is there another platform bat on the market? How many versatile corner infielders who can hit are available? Jake Burger is an example I like using as he’d cost you less and has solid platoon splits. 
 

A lot of the in house options are left handed bats. If Jonathon Long is the guy I’m not sure how many more reps he needs. 
 

like the rangers in 2023 I like the idea of outscoring teams with an elite defense, a bullpen that hopefully keeps producing at a high level and another MOR starter to at least insure quality starts. Cubs are a slugging platoon bat away from more consistently.

Edited July 4, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

17 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

There's no such thing, though. Draft picks are not players. How one team views, say, Owen Caissie, versus another is very different. There's no defined value.

Gallen has been terrible this year. We probably don't want him. His fastball has taken a significant step back, and he's been among the worst SP in the league. I'd far rather have Merrill Kelly. With that said, I'd hold off trading for Suarez like Bregman. I think Shaw is teetering on the breakout and I think the Cubs should shoot for a more controlled SP with the prospect value.

I wrote an article just this week on this topic, however, on names likely to be moved. You can check it out here.

 

I know it doesn’t exist. It would be fun though.

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

He’s just an example. He has some experience, you may or not be comfortable with it but where do you go from here? Is there another platform bat on the market? How many versatile corner infielders who can hit are available? Jake Burger is an example I like using as he’d cost you less and has solid platoon splits. 
 

A lot of the in house options are left handed bats.

I would look at Willi Castro or Ramon Urias. Urias has moonlit at first base a few innings in his career, Castro hasn't, but has so much versatility that you can likely find some combination that works out. Both hit LHP really well, and both give you flexibility to give Shaw, Hoerner and others days off, too. Both can hit RHP decently as well. 

Neither are likely as in-demand as Bregman or Suarez, either, by a decent shot, which would allow you to target, say, Edward Cabrera from Miami with your bullets instead of spreading them across the board more. And I'd argue that a Castro/Urias+Cabrerra is just as good as Suarez/Bregman+Kelly if you think Matt Shaw's recent steps forward has him as a league average offensive 3b or slightly better moving forward.

[Jason Ross]

I'll post this a few places but Jordan Wicks was just spotted arriving at Wrigley. 

[Ding Dong Johnson]

10 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I'll post this a few places but Jordan Wicks was just spotted arriving at Wrigley. 

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Ding Dong Johnson said:

He's made some really nice improvements in Iowa. Think he's set up to do well. Velo is up. His change command has returned. 

[Geographyhater8888]

It’d be nice if Wicks stayed healthy and could develop into that number 3-4 starter they drafted him profiling his high floor low ceiling. Does he still have any trade value? Keegan Thompson all but disappeared.

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Geographyhater8888 said:

It’d be nice if Wicks stayed healthy and could develop into that number 3-4 starter they drafted him profiling his high floor low ceiling. Does he still have any trade value? Keegan Thompson all but disappeared.

Wicks has some value in a trade. Only 25 and with draft pedigree. He's shown good things in Iowa, especially recently, The swing and miss has ticked up. Command on the changeup has gotten good again. 

That said, he may still have more value to the Cubs. There's a decent chance he's better than Colin Rea for the rest of 2025 and could conceivably grab a rotation spot in 2026. Other teams will knock him for injuries and some poor MLB play. So it depends on how the Cubs continue to view him. If they share those same knocks, they could trade him. If they think he's better than that and making progress, then his internal value likely outpaces his trade value enough that he's unlikely to be traded.

[KCCub]

Innings concerns aside, Bubic is my favorite name that’s been mentioned. Royals need OF prospects. Let’s make it work. 

[Derwood]

Is a 1.40 WHIP at AAA supposed to instill confidence in me?

[UMFan83]

39 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Is a 1.40 WHIP at AAA supposed to instill confidence in me?

If you are lazy and just look at the stat line. Most young yo-yo pitchers go back down to AAA to work on stuff. Also he’s had a 0.84 WHIP since mid May

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

If you are lazy and just look at the stat line. Most young yo-yo pitchers go back down to AAA to work on stuff. Also he’s had a 0.84 WHIP since mid May

Also should be noted Iowa's such a hitters paradise an 800 OPS is barely above average.

[UMFan83]

Wicks is up because Taillon is going on the IL. Poor recent form aside that’s a tough blow. 

Guessing Wicks is now Saturday’s game

Edited July 4, 2025 by UMFan83