Starting rotation options available now

[Bertz]

33 minutes ago, mul21 said:

@Jason Ross any insights on why Gallen has been so bad this year?  I see all the indicators are going in the wrong direction (walk 5, K%, hard hit, etc.) but I'm curious if he's just lost location or spin is down or there's something specific he's not doing now that he has in the past.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/can-the-diamondbacks-survive-their-rotation-troubles/

Ben Clemens lays out a fairly compelling case that he's simply throwing too many fastballs

[Jason Ross]

30 minutes ago, Bertz said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/can-the-diamondbacks-survive-their-rotation-troubles/

Ben Clemens lays out a fairly compelling case that he's simply throwing too many fastballs

Yeah, it's probably the easiest conclusion. I'll add just a little to the article, only because I caught a few things looking at his pages, and some thoughts, but Ben's probably the authority here.

Which makes him an interesting use case for the Cubs - a team who *loves* their fastballs this year. His fastball has lost velocity (about half a mph on average), He's been on a pretty decent downturn on fastball shape according to Stuff+ year-over-year as well, though BP's stuffpitch+ and propitch+ think it's not overall different. Just checking Savant, he's getting more rise on the fastball than he had been despite the similar arm slot. Ben mentioned this as well.

BP's deserved +/-, however, suggests he's not been very good and he's earned it. 

A few other things of note; he's throwing more pitches in the zone, getting less chases out of it, The positive is that he's generating more whiffs on chase than normal, but it doesn't seem to be anywhere near enough to offset things. 

I'd say that if Tyler Zombro sees an easy, internal fix here, then he's probably worth a look, but as with a few other pitchers who are going to be available, they feel more like "fixer-uppers" and in two months time in a new org, that could be a stretch as they head into October. But with how the Cubs have emphasized fastball and Gallen has is struggling with fastball, my gut reaction is that the Cubs won't be enamored by him unless Zomrbo and Co have a quick-fix for the fastball they can implement.

[Bertz]

I'll say if the rumor of Jed wanting to get a SP in house sooner rather than later is true, Gallen's easily the best option IMO.  Bring him in, give Hottovy a month to see if his issues are indeed a quick fix him, if not (or god forbid there's further injury) go back to market at the end of July.

Similar to Billy Beane adding Jeff Samardzija and Jon Lester in 2014.

[Rcal10]

8 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I'll say if the rumor of Jed wanting to get a SP in house sooner rather than later is true, Gallen's easily the best option IMO.  Bring him in, give Hottovy a month to see if his issues are indeed a quick fix him, if not (or god forbid there's further injury) go back to market at the end of July.

Similar to Billy Beane adding Jeff Samardzija and Jon Lester in 2014.

That the thing. If the Cubs are talking a move sooner rather than later I have to think it will be a bigger move, Gallen, Alcantara, Gore, Skenes. I know the last couple are way bigger than the first 2 and probably not very likely. But I don’t see the Cubs trading for someone like Heany, etc…now. It has to be bigger if it comes soon, IMO. 

[squally1313]

9 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

That the thing. If the Cubs are talking a move sooner rather than later I have to think it will be a bigger move, Gallen, Alcantara, Gore, Skenes. I know the last couple are way bigger than the first 2 and probably not very likely. But I don’t see the Cubs trading for someone like Heany, etc…now. It has to be bigger if it comes soon, IMO. 

Feel like one of us are reading this wrong because I think it's the opposite (and would prefer it that way). Get the mediocre innings eater now to take some burden off, find the (still healthy in 6 weeks) stud closer to the trade deadline. 

[Rcal10]

Just now, squally1313 said:

Feel like one of us are reading this wrong because I think it's the opposite (and would prefer it that way). Get the mediocre innings eater now to take some burden off, find the (still healthy in 6 weeks) stud closer to the trade deadline. 

I would think if they want to do it now they want to make a statement and get the guy they want. Not lose an asset, who might be of value as a 3rd piece for a bigger get later, to get a mediocre pitcher now.. Hate to jump the market for an average guy and then not get a better guy because now you end up settling for the average guy. I might feel this way, too, because I just don’t see them adding 2 starting pitchers via trades. But, who knows🤷.

[mul21]

9 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Feel like one of us are reading this wrong because I think it's the opposite (and would prefer it that way). Get the mediocre innings eater now to take some burden off, find the (still healthy in 6 weeks) stud closer to the trade deadline. 

I'm reading it the same as you.  I think the cost of a splashy move right now would be prohibitive, even with the MiL depth the Cubs currently have.

[squally1313]

21 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I would think if they want to do it now they want to make a statement and get the guy they want. Not lose an asset, who might be of value as a 3rd piece for a bigger get later, to get a mediocre pitcher now.. Hate to jump the market for an average guy and then not get a better guy because now you end up settling for the average guy. I might feel this way, too, because I just don’t see them adding 2 starting pitchers via trades. But, who knows🤷.

Unfortunately they need both. We're missing a playoff pitcher and someone who can take innings away from Brown/Horton. The type of average pitchers I'm thinking about, trading for them isn't 'jumping the market'...an Andrew Heaney trade would barely register, would have a immaterial impact on our prospect pool, and would come with the implicit understanding that this doesn't have an impact on our playoff rotation. 

[KCCub]

53 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Feel like one of us are reading this wrong because I think it's the opposite (and would prefer it that way). Get the mediocre innings eater now to take some burden off, find the (still healthy in 6 weeks) stud closer to the trade deadline. 

Agree with this. 

[Bull]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

Feel like one of us are reading this wrong because I think it's the opposite (and would prefer it that way). Get the mediocre innings eater now to take some burden off, find the (still healthy in 6 weeks) stud closer to the trade deadline. 

I agree with this, but would add that we (fans) wanted two pitchers in the offseason and Jed delivered Boyd and Rea. Temper your expectations. 

And yes I realize that without Rea and Boyd, this Cubs team would not be as good as they have been. 

Blind nut somethingsomething...finds a squirrel something something. 

Edited June 5, 2025 by Bull

[squally1313]

Just now, Bull said:

I agree with this, but would add that we (fans) wanted two pitchers in the offseason and Jed delivered Boyd and Rea. Temper your expectations. 

Generally agreed, and I think it was a misstep on his/their part, especially ending the offseason with 'dry powder', to the extent you want to believe Rickett's quotes about staying right below that first tax line. There were quotes/implications/whatever about setting that money aside for in-season acquisitions, which was a little absurd given the concept of picking up like $25m in pro-rated 2025 salary, but still. This was also before Steele went out and Shota went down.

Having said that, Boyd and Rea have given us 110 innings of sub-4 ERA, 1.7 fWAR production, Shota was regarded as an underwhelming signing and has been great, and Taillon was similarly viewed as middle of the road and has given us 400 innings of 4 ERA pitching. So Hoyer has earned some trust in that type of acquisition. And he's made relatively big moves (in quiet trade seasons) with essentially .500 teams in the last few years, so I wouldn't count on him sitting out. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

Unfortunately they need both. We're missing a playoff pitcher and someone who can take innings away from Brown/Horton. The type of average pitchers I'm thinking about, trading for them isn't 'jumping the market'...an Andrew Heaney trade would barely register, would have a immaterial impact on our prospect pool, and would come with the implicit understanding that this doesn't have an impact on our playoff rotation. 

Eh, guess I read it wrong. Time will tell. But if Heaney,or someone of that nature, doesn’t cost anything of consequence, what you are suggesting does make sense. Maybe he comes in and through the rest of the year Counsell gives Brown, Horton and maybe even Boyd a break by skipping them a start or two. Just not sure who they take off the staff. 

[squally1313]

20 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Eh, guess I read it wrong. Time will tell. But if Heaney,or someone of that nature, doesn’t cost anything of consequence, what you are suggesting does make sense. Maybe he comes in and through the rest of the year Counsell gives Brown, Horton and maybe even Boyd a break by skipping them a start or two. Just not sure who they take off the staff. 

I mean, it's Chris Flexen. 

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I mean, it's Chris Flexen. 

😄 I forgot they had him. 

[Rob]

I wonder if the Rangers might be willing to move DeGrom.

They're in 3rd place in the AL West, 4.5 back of the Astros and 4 back of the Mariners. They're also 4 games out of the wild card, and would have to pass 5 teams in the standings to sneak in there.

DeGrom was signed from 23-27 at $37M per year. He gave the Rangers a combined 41 IP in 23-24, but he's already at 69.1 IP this year. The underlying metrics indicate he's lost a step but is still an above-average starter. Still, with the Rangers quickly going nowhere this might be their only chance to have somebody else eat a big chunk of the remaining money on the contract.

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, Rob said:

I wonder if the Rangers might be willing to move DeGrom.

 

They're in 3rd place in the AL West, 4.5 back of the Astros and 4 back of the Mariners. They're also 4 games out of the wild card, and would have to pass 5 teams in the standings to sneak in there.

DeGrom was signed from 23-27 at $37M per year. He gave the Rangers a combined 41 IP in 23-24, but he's already at 69.1 IP this year. The underlying metrics indicate he's lost a step but is still an above-average starter. Still, with the Rangers quickly going nowhere this might be their only chance to have somebody else eat a big chunk of the remaining money on the contract.

I think deGrom is the least likely guy the Cubs would go after. That contract is terrible. They can absolutely give up any chance of resigning Tucker, if deGrom’s salary is on the books next year. 

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I think deGrom is the least likely guy the Cubs would go after. That contract is terrible. They can absolutely give up any chance of resigning Tucker, if deGrom’s salary is on the books next year. 

Any sort of DeGrom deal would assuredly include the Rangers eating a substantial portion of that contract. Having said that, no real interest in the moment. If you aren't getting elite level DeGrom you can store on the shelf until September and you can't provide me any real certainty he's going to be around for the rest of the year, I don't really see the upside. 

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

Any sort of DeGrom deal would assuredly include the Rangers eating a substantial portion of that contract. Having said that, no real interest in the moment. If you aren't getting elite level DeGrom you can store on the shelf until September and you can't provide me any real certainty he's going to be around for the rest of the year, I don't really see the upside. 

I agree. Fact is if they ate enough for the Cubs to afford the contract he would probably cost more assets than he is worth to the Cubs. Honestly, right now I am pretty sure DeGrom is not tradable without the Rangers eating salary. 

[Post Count Padder]

I love me some Gallen and if they could solve some of those issues down the stretch, that would be awesome. But he is having a down year and is a pending FA. And I can see Arizona not wanting to sell low but also want to get something for him if he walks and he has ace stuff. What would the cost even be?

[Tryptamine]

I'm gonna throw out a hot take. What about Sugano? I'm not saying he'd be the only move, but he'd be an interesting pick up as a 2nd pitcher. He's a FA after 2025 and I think his peripherals would absolutely suppress any return he'd bring. He's a really strange pitcher. His peripherals suggest he shouldn't be anywhere near this successful and yet he shows no signs of slowing down. I do expect some regression but his abnormally low babip and abnormally high lob% really aren't terribly out of line with average numbers in Japan. He seems to do an extremely good job at limiting hard contact and walks almost no one. With the Cub defense behind him, I'd be intrigued to pick him up if the going rate is like someone like Kipp.

Edited June 5, 2025 by Tryptamine

[Rcal10]

57 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I'm gonna throw out a hot take. What about Sugano? I'm not saying he'd be the only move, but he'd be an interesting pick up as a 2nd pitcher. He's a FA after 2025 and I think his peripherals would absolutely suppress any return he'd bring. He's a really strange pitcher. His peripherals suggest he shouldn't be anywhere near this successful and yet he shows no signs of slowing down. I do expect some regression but his abnormally low babip and abnormally high lob% really aren't terribly out of line with average numbers in Japan. He seems to do an extremely good job at limiting hard contact and walks almost no one. With the Cub defense behind him, I'd be intrigued to pick him up if the going rate is like someone like Kipp.

I really don’t know much about him. But if I am looking at the Orioles I would they rather go with Eflin. But, who knows🤷

[JunkyardWalrus]

Why does Alcantara feel like a trap?

[Rcal10]

29 minutes ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

Why does Alcantara feel like a trap?

I am actually starting to warm to the idea of Alcantara. But he has to be able to be acquired using no more than 2 top 10 prospects in the system and maybe another lower level guy. I know it is a risk, but it is also a big swing that could pay off. 

[Ding Dong Johnson]

5 hours ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

Why does Alcantara feel like a trap?

Because he hasn’t been good for a while, had a significant injury, and is about to be on the wrong side of 30?

[Stratos]

11 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

That the thing. If the Cubs are talking a move sooner rather than later I have to think it will be a bigger move, Gallen, Alcantara, Gore, Skenes. I know the last couple are way bigger than the first 2 and probably not very likely. But I don’t see the Cubs trading for someone like Heany, etc…now. It has to be bigger if it comes soon, IMO. 

I don't see much of a need to trade for a SP right now, unless it's a clear upgrade.  They can wait and see and pull the trigger based on injuries.  Imanaga doesn't seem that far from a return.  Assad has also been playing catch and Wicks has been pitching better in Iowa.

If it's an upgrade they might as well do it now and get their money's worth.  Losing Steele will hurt in the playoffs.

A late-inning reliever and a bench player might also be on the deadline shopping list.