Cubs (Boyd) vs Mets (Canning): 5/11/25, 11:05am

[DrCub]

1 hour ago, Derwood said:

No one is in the circle of trust anymore

The circle of trust has become a frickin dot

[BKHoo]

Ok we now have 17 games to go in May - every single games is against a team < .500. 
 

 

[soccer10k]

1 hour ago, UMFan83 said:

welp that's 2 lost series in a row and 3 of 5.  Time to pick it up boys

I mean we have the Marlins, White Sox and Marlins in the next 9 games followed by Cincy and the Rockies. I’m not going to panic unless they struggle against those teams. But it’s not outlandish to think we could go like 11-4 in that run.

[UMFan83]

8 minutes ago, soccer10k said:

I mean we have the Marlins, White Sox and Marlins in the next 9 games followed by Cincy and the Rockies. I’m not going to panic unless they struggle against those teams. But it’s not outlandish to think we could go like 11-4 in that run.

Definitely a good time to get an easy schedule but baseball has a way of humbling you when you’re not playing well. Thats why bad teams win 45% of games and good teams win 55% of games.  On the flip side when you’re playing well like the Cubs were in April you can regularly beat good teams (if you’re also a good team which the Cubs are).

Dont mind me, I do think the a cubs are definitely better than 2023 and 2024 but the pitching really scares me. Eventually the offense will hit again and we’ll play well (and not like the offense is playing terrible for an extended stretch)

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Have you looked at his 14 day splits? 

How many runs did he give up. He came in yesterday and waked a guy to then get two guys to hit ground balls and get the save. The time before that he came I. With the Manfred runner in second and the inning ended with that runner on second. I get it, he isn’t lock down sure thing no worry reliever. Unfortunately they don’t really have one. He has had 2 bad games. The one in the 18th of April and now this one. A few other times when he did give up runs they were in bloop hits not over 75mph. No, he isn’t perfect, but to suggest he has been awful for 2 weeks is not accurate. There is so much to complain about with the one, that is an issue. Until today Hosge wasn’t an issue, at least not in the last 2 weeks. 

[chibears55]

2 hours ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Welp, they didn't get swept, and go home still in first place with the insanely difficult part of the schedule finally out of the way.

Right, it would of been nice to split these last 6 games of their extremely difficult schedule to start the season but in the end of you were to have told me they'd be above 500 after today and in first place, I would of been happy, especially with their top 2 starters down.

These next 18 games, they can not let down and go into any kind of funk. They are all very winnable games against opponents that aren't even close talent wise that they just finished playing the last month, I expect no worse then 12-6.

 

[Donzo]

Not signing Tanner Scott kinda broke me on the Cubs this year. Now I remember why.

[We Got The Whole 9]

55 minutes ago, Donzo said:

Not signing Tanner Scott kinda broke me on the Cubs this year. Now I remember why.

He'd probably have more walks than strikeouts 

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Right, it would of been nice to split these last 6 games of their extremely difficult schedule to start the season but in the end of you were to have told me they'd be above 500 after today and in first place, I would of been happy, especially with their top 2 starters down.

These next 18 games, they can not let down and go into any kind of funk. They are all very winnable games against opponents that aren't even close talent wise that they just finished playing the last month, I expect no worse then 12-6.

 

Agreed. Cubs came out of a very difficult early schedule in good shape. Cardinals are only 1 game back but from now until June 16 or so, the next 31 games the only team they play who would be considered bad is the Orioles. And they might turn it around by then. By the time the Xubs face the Cardinals in late June their lead should be at least 4 or 5 games. I’m not sure I cam say I expect no worse than 12-6 the next 18. horsefeathers happens in baseball. But I agree they should start distancing themselves from .500 and the division. ThrbCardinals haven’t played one game against the NL West yet. The schedule not going to be their friend starting tomorrow. 

[Stratos]

11 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Cubs are getting-.7 WAR out of third base.  Didn’t think it was possible to downgrade from Morel/Wisdom/Madrigal but here we are. 

Yay.

[Stratos]

10 hours ago, BigSlick said:

How hard is it to find a replacement level third baseman? It seems like it should be a relatively doable task

Berti is replacement level.  Gage and Shaw stunk it up.

[Stratos]

8 hours ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Didnt this happen last year too? Great start and then horsefeathers just hit the fan

Yes.  We play Miami/White Sox/Miami though next 3 series, hopefully they get back on track.

[Stratos]

8 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Do you bring Ballesteros up and put Busch and 2B or 3B? This team needs to score runs to win and I’m sick of seeing these automatic outs like Berti and Turner in the everyday lineup. 

Also need to get guys out in the field to win too.   If the Cubs want Ballesteros to be a catcher he needs to get those defensive reps in the minors, he's still only 21 y/o.  His bat looks pretty much ready though.  Still think they'd prefer him staying down for most of the year.

Hopefully Shaw gets going soon and is back up in the next month or so.

[thawv]

17 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

W

This is also the worst bench I can remember. Busch Suzuki and Kelly were going to regress from their 900 OPS+ pace, not a surprise the scoring is down ever since Carson Kelly remembered he’s Carson Kelly and not babe Ruth.

 

third base, rotation and pen are trending as expected. 88 wins it is, although it’s still the cubs we’re talking about l.

 

 

The bench gets exposed when they play too much.  Not having a 3B means playing a bench player every game.  Busch not hitting LHP means a bench player is playing too often.  Happ not playing the last two games means a bench player in in the lineup again.  Bench players should play a minimal amount of games. 

 

[gflore34]

If this Happ injury is going to be a thing and let's face it, it's the Cubs, and it probably will be a thing.  I wonder if any thought will given towards a Ballesteros cup of coffee at DH?  He certainly cannot perform any worse than the corpse of Justin Turner.

Edited May 12, 2025 by gflore34

[BKHoo]

While we can say (with numbers) that the upcoming schedule looks easier. We also have to admit that every team we will play, except for the Marlins, has a superior bullpen to the Cubs. 

[gflore34]

4 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

While we can say (with numbers) that the upcoming schedule looks easier. We also have to admit that every team we will play, except for the Marlins, has a superior bullpen to the Cubs. 

It may also be a chance for the bullpen to get back on track, no more facing loaded lineups game after game.  There should be an uptick in performance in the following weeks.

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

While we can say (with numbers) that the upcoming schedule looks easier. We also have to admit that every team we will play, except for the Marlins, has a superior bullpen to the Cubs. 

Is the Sox bullpen better than the Cubs? I honestly don’t know that. Sox seem to lose a lot of late games. 

[squally1313]

7 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

While we can say (with numbers) that the upcoming schedule looks easier. We also have to admit that every team we will play, except for the Marlins, has a superior bullpen to the Cubs. 

We don't have to admit that because it isn't true. The White Sox bullpen has been metrically worse, as has the Rockies, the Nationals bullpen has been worse by both basic and advanced stats, the Reds bullpen is 18th in fWAR compared to the Cubs being 21st. These are very bad teams in pretty much every facet of baseball. They will still win somewhere around 3 out of every 10 games, because that's how this works, but the Cubs are regressing from a very high watermark. 

[BKHoo]

7 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Is the Sox bullpen better than the Cubs? I honestly don’t know that. Sox seem to lose a lot of late games. 

Yes they are slightly better. 

Bullpen ERAs

sox 4.62

cubs 4.75

[Rcal10]

18 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

Yes they are slightly better. 

Bullpen ERAs

sox 4.62

cubs 4.75

ERA is not really the best, or at least the only, way to measure a pen. And you did not count the Nationals and the Rockies in the upcoming games. Their pens suck too. Really in the next 21 games the only one better than the Cubs, is the Reds. Sox might not be worse, but it is a real stretch to call them better. And the Rockies and Nationals are worse. 

[mul21]

28 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

Yes they are slightly better. 

Bullpen ERAs

sox 4.62

cubs 4.75

That's about the only category they're better than the Cubs in.

[gflore34]

10 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

ERA is not really the best, or at least the only, way to measure a pen. And you did not count the Nationals and the Rockies in the upcoming games. Their pens suck too. Really in the next 21 games the only one better than the Cubs, is the Reds. Sox might not be worse, but it is a real stretch to call them better. And the Rockies and Nationals are worse. 

There hasn't been much good about the Cubs bullpen but, facing good to loaded lineups game after game has to be a factor.  I don't know of many bullpens that'll come out with sterling numbers after facing the gauntlet the Cubs just finished.  While were seeing negative regression out of the lineup, I'd say there's an excellent chance we're going to see some positive regression from the pitching the next few weeks.

Edited May 12, 2025 by gflore34

[squally1313]

16 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

There hasn't been much good about the Cubs bullpen but, facing good to loaded lineups game after game has to be a factor.  I don't know of many bullpens that'll come out with sterling numbers after facing the gauntlet the Cubs just finished.  While were seeing negative regression out of the lineup, I'd say there's an excellent chance we're going to see some positive regression from the pitching the next few weeks.

Kinda jumping around on sides here, but the positive regression you'd expect is, in my opinion, going to be pretty offset by the fact that Steele and Shota aren't here. Horton is exciting but the track record of other top pitching prospects their first time up is not encouraging, Colin Rea is Colin Rea, we're one injury to the most injury prone dude in baseball away from Jameson Taillon being our ace for the near term future. 

Basically, in my mind: the offense is very good, PCA, Busch, and Nico are slightly outperforming their xwOBA but PCA and Busch even with a little regression are still elite players. Tucker, Dansby, Happ, Suzuki are all underperforming and have already been fine to great. Catchers are fine. The bullpen is bad, but all the talk around here that the Cubs are in this unique situation where we need to be nervous about close and late situations but everyone else is just nails is very over the top. The rotation is kinda shaping up to be a disaster, some part of that bad injury luck, some part of it self inflicted, a lot of which can be solved in an expensive way, and with knock on effects that would ease the bullpen problems. Go pay for a starter or two, as soon as possible. 

[gflore34]

3 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Kinda jumping around on sides here, but the positive regression you'd expect is, in my opinion, going to be pretty offset by the fact that Steele and Shota aren't here. Horton is exciting but the track record of other top pitching prospects their first time up is not encouraging, Colin Rea is Colin Rea, we're one injury to the most injury prone dude in baseball away from Jameson Taillon being our ace for the near term future. 

Basically, in my mind: the offense is very good, PCA, Busch, and Nico are slightly outperforming their xwOBA but PCA and Busch even with a little regression are still elite players. Tucker, Dansby, Happ, Suzuki are all underperforming and have already been fine to great. Catchers are fine. The bullpen is bad, but all the talk around here that the Cubs are in this unique situation where we need to be nervous about close and late situations but everyone else is just nails is very over the top. The rotation is kinda shaping up to be a disaster, some part of that bad injury luck, some part of it self inflicted, a lot of which can be solved in an expensive way, and with knock on effects that would ease the bullpen problems. Go pay for a starter or two, as soon as possible. 

Is Hoyer prepared to pay the price tag, I mentioned, if Happ' injury lingers, giving Ballesteros a try, however, I'm all for trading him while his value is at it's highest point.  Is Hoyer?  Or, more likely, what bargain bin starting pitching will he target?  Don't know who but, I'm certain there's plenty of these types he'll have on his shopping list.