Cubs Season Flow Thread

[CubinNY]

So, here we are after the NY series. It was a weekend series I only caught sporadic glimpses of the games. It sounds like Happer has a nagging hammy. The trending slump is full slump except for Dansby, but that happens during the season. The pen is the pen until something changes. I don't know what that something will be. 

Horton-hears-a-whoo had three good innings out of 4 in his debut against one of the best lineups in the NL. You have to like that. 

All and all, and all things considered, I'm happy they took one. Now they play weaker competition. It's time for them to rise above and show they are contenders. 

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

All and all, and all things considered, I'm happy they took one. Now they play weaker competition. It's time for them to rise above and show they are contenders. 

Yeah. I think everyone targeted this Mets series as the end of the gauntlet, and I don't think anyone would have wanted or predicted much better than 23-18 through that stretch. And we did that with pretty much nothing from Steele and not a whole lot from Shota besides some clutch pitching moments. It's really unfortunate we can't be at full strength for this next stretch because, yeah these teams suck, but historically so does Colin Rea, and Horton could be fun but you look through the top pitching prospects and how they're doing in the majors and its dire (Roki 4.72 ERA/6.17 FIP, Jobe 4.88 ERA/5.65 FIP, Dollander 7.71 ERA/6.54 FIP, Chase Petty has gotten rocked). Rea sucks, Horton/Boyd/Brown are different levels of restricted in terms of a full season worth of innings, and our only current length in the bullpen is Chris Flexen, who is probably the worst pitcher on the team. The offense very well might be enough, but they're going to have to beat up on bad pitching pretty consistently to pad their record the way that they should. 

[Bertz]

 

 

[mul21]

49 minutes ago, Bertz said:

 

 

Palencia with the leg kick is amazing. 🤣

[CubinNY]

One of the markers of a good team is that they can win even when they are not playing at their best. The Cubs won the series against the Marlins, not playing their best baseball. It's a good sign that they are a good team. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

gonna leave this here as a reminder for all of us schemers

[Dfan25]

Merryweather may be pitching for his roster spot , his next few outings . When Hodge comes back , way  I see it it’s him or Flexen gone . Flexen gives them length when needed at the least . 

[javy knows my name]

18 hours ago, Dfan25 said:

Merryweather may be pitching for his roster spot , his next few outings . When Hodge comes back , way  I see it it’s him or Flexen gone . Flexen gives them length when needed at the least . 

Am I imagining it, or did he used to be comfortably at 98/99? Last night he was throwing 96 mph dick shots, just getting crushed. Has he just never recovered from the injury?

[We Got The Whole 9]

46 minutes ago, javy knows my name said:

Am I imagining it, or did he used to be comfortably at 98/99? Last night he was throwing 96 mph dick shots, just getting crushed. Has he just never recovered from the injury?

Yeah averaged 98.2 in 2023 and he's at 96.3 the last couple years. I dont think its coming back, at least not this year. 

[Stratos]

On 5/24/2025 at 9:49 AM, javy knows my name said:

Am I imagining it, or did he used to be comfortably at 98/99? Last night he was throwing 96 mph dick shots, just getting crushed. Has he just never recovered from the injury?

Maybe that plus maybe some natural age- related velo drop.   Not throwing much last year might have an effect also.  Bottom line is he just didn't look good.

[CubinNY]

They are doing what good teams do. I can’t wait until they play the Cardinals.

The pitching has to improve if the want to contend

[BigbadB]

Quote

 

Very good chance of passing some of these teams after the Colorado series.

 

All reactions:

 

 

[Bertz]

92 pitchers have at least 50 IP this year.  Among them Ben Brown ranks (all stats oriented so 1st = best):

- 31st in groundball rate

- 43rd in walk rate

- 22nd in groundball rate

- 76th in hard hit rate

- 56th in barrel rate

- 23rd in xFIP

- 73rd in xERA

- 91st in ERA

He is getting hit hard, so he shouldn't have results as sparkling as his FIP suggests.  But there's just not any reason to think he should have an ERA over 5, much less 6.  Hell even with the hard contact you'd probably expect south of 4 going forward. 

This is about as slam dunk a case of bad luck as you can find.  If he was on any other team we'd be champing at the bit to buy low on him.

[CubinNY]

The Cubs continue to do what good teams do. They should have a .750ish winning record against below .500 teams. I like that they demonstrate the ability to score in different run-scoring environments. 

The injuries to the pitchers are a significant issue and will be costly to correct though.

[Rcal10]

17 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

The Cubs continue to do what good teams do. They should have a .750ish winning record against below .500 teams. I like that they demonstrate the ability to score in different run-scoring environments. 

The injuries to the pitchers are a significant issue and will be costly to correct though.

Agree about the pitching concerns. More due to numbers of innings they should expect. Maybe once Imanaga comes back they can go to a 6 man staff. Maybe when Assad comes back either Brown or Horton can go to the pen. And even with that they need a starter at the TDL. I don’t think they should expect any more than 120 innings from Brown and Horton and maybe 135-140 from Boyd. And assuming they make the playoffs, that is going to be hard to stay under. 

[gflore34]

On 5/26/2025 at 8:18 AM, CubinNY said:

They are doing what good teams do. I can’t wait until they play the Cardinals.

The pitching has to improve if the want to contend

Aren't the Cardinals in same boat with their starters?  No TOR, all MOR types who are currently over performing, the regression monster hasn't come from them yet but, it will.  The difference is the lineups where, I think, the Cubs have the edge.  Cubs also have the edge in buying power, if a TOR or maybe, upper tier MOR is available at the TDL Cubs have the assets to get one of them.

[mul21]

12 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Aren't the Cardinals in same boat with their starters?  No TOR, all MOR types who are currently over performing, the regression monster hasn't come from them yet but, it will.  The difference is the lineups where, I think, the Cubs have the edge.  Cubs also have the edge in buying power, if a TOR or maybe, upper tier MOR is available at the TDL Cubs have the assets to get one of them.

Surprisingly, most of their underlying numbers weren't far off from their actual numbers last time I looked.  It seems like Liberatore has finally turned the corner and he might be an actually good pitcher.  The rest of them, between age and regression, I suspect are due for some decline in performance though.

[Rcal10]

5 hours ago, mul21 said:

Surprisingly, most of their underlying numbers weren't far off from their actual numbers last time I looked.  It seems like Liberatore has finally turned the corner and he might be an actually good pitcher.  The rest of them, between age and regression, I suspect are due for some decline in performance though.

I think the bigger problem with the Cubs than pitchers starting to pitch poorly is them pitching at all. I am not overly concerned about Boyd being able to stay solid. I also think Horton will get better. If anything, so will Brown. I think the only regression the Cubs might see is in Rea. But Brown and even Horton can get better. But the innings are the issue. 

[thawv]

19 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Agree about the pitching concerns. More due to numbers of innings they should expect. Maybe once Imanaga comes back they can go to a 6 man staff. Maybe when Assad comes back either Brown or Horton can go to the pen. And even with that they need a starter at the TDL. I don’t think they should expect any more than 120 innings from Brown and Horton and maybe 135-140 from Boyd. And assuming they make the playoffs, that is going to be hard to stay under. 

Craig said that there's no hard innings limit on Horton.  He wants him in the rotation through the playoffs. 

[Bertz]

55 minutes ago, thawv said:

Craig said that there's no hard innings limit on Horton.  He wants him in the rotation through the playoffs. 

"No hard Innings limit" =/= In the rotation through the playoffs

Horton is going to get paused or slowed down at some point.  There's not a hard limit, so it's not some Strasburg situation where Horton hits 120 innings and is immediately shut down, but they definitely have a realistic range in mind and will take proactive steps to limit him to roughly that range.

Expect either an IL trip at some point, even if its for something flimsy, or a transition to the bullpen.  Which one they go with probably depends on how well he's pitching.

And every word above applies to Brown as well.

[KCCub]

 

 

[Bertz]

32 minutes ago, KCCub said:

 

 

I wonder if they do an opener.  The top of the Reds lineup is very susceptible to lefties, and as much as I think Brown's issues are mostly luck based you could see him pretty rattled in the first inning last weekend.  While his confidence is wavy he might do better coming into a game that's already flowing.

An opener might be a two birds one stone deal.

[We Got The Whole 9]

14 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I wonder if they do an opener.  The top of the Reds lineup is very susceptible to lefties, and as much as I think Brown's issues are mostly luck based you could see him pretty rattled in the first inning last weekend.  While his confidence is wavy he might do better coming into a game that's already flowing.

An opener might be a two birds one stone deal.

Does Cabrera have good stats vs the Reds lineup?

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Does Cabrera have good stats vs the Reds lineup?

Not sure about that. But Reds are very bad against left handed pitching. So maybe they use those guys tomorrow. They now have 3 pen lefties.  So who knows.🤷

[gflore34]

8 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Not sure about that. But Reds are very bad against left handed pitching. So maybe they use those guys tomorrow. They now have 3 pen lefties.  So who knows.🤷

Was watching a little Braves-Phillies last night, they were discussing how it's not only the Reds but, league wide is not doing well against LHP.