Cubs Season Flow Thread

[CubinNY]

I know the site is officially against mega threads, but I think a thread is needed to discuss the season as it flows along. Mods, please delete if not appropriate. 

 

Anyway, the Cubs are coming out of a brutal schedule in fine fashion. They do have some readily apparent weaknesses, but they look like a contending club at this point. When I say contending, I mean for the World Series, not the division. 

Strengths- the bottom of the order

Weaknesses- bullpen walks. 3B. Shaw not having a ST really hurt his beginning of the season and it showed. I'm hoping he gets back to form and is called up by the end of May. If not, they need to make a trade before July. 

I like this team a lot. They need some SLG off the bench and Dansby needs to do something at the plate. 

So far so good. 

[Brian707]

The 2024 Cubs had a similar start in April and we all know how that turned out. Granted, against a much easier schedule. This team can be a WS contender, we shouldn't settle for just winning a horsefeathers NL Central. It all depends if PTR opens up the padlock on his wallet. Otherwise you can't count on Jed to go dumpster diving at the deadline.

[Post Count Padder]

I don't know if this has been discussed anywhere else but Nico has not swung and missed at a pitch in the zone all season. 😮

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/nico-hoerner-is-flirting-with-perfection

[Derwood]

2 hours ago, Post Count Padder said:

I don't know if this has been discussed anywhere else but Nico has not swung and missed at a pitch in the zone all season. 😮

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/nico-hoerner-is-flirting-with-perfection

he also hasn't hit a ball more than 300 feet

[PackLandVA]

AVG - .307

Doubles - 7

Triples - 1

HRs - 9

RBI - 35

K - 20

BB - 17

 

Cubs Catchers thru 20% of the season!

[CubinNY]

Well, here we are, and without our #1 and #2 starters. We will see how resilient this team is for the next six weeks. I'm disappointed in Wicks's lack of development. He could be just what the doctor ordered. I wouldn't panic, but I also wouldn't waste too many more innings of Horton in AAA. 

[Rcal10]

14 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Well, here we are, and without our #1 and #2 starters. We will see how resilient this team is for the next six weeks. I'm disappointed in Wicks's lack of development. He could be just what the doctor ordered. I wouldn't panic, but I also wouldn't waste too many more innings of Horton in AAA. 

I think Horton has to come up, right? Maybe today they will bring up a pen arm, since Horton doesn’t really have to be used until after the Mets series. With an off day Thursday they can go without a 5th starter until the following week. But when the do have to use a starter aside from the 4 they have in the rotation now, it better be Horton. 🤞

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

[CubinNY]

Our Cubs lost a winnable series at home, and the bats are trending toward slump. Someone mentioned the lack of depth is starting to show. It's plausible, but it's also conceivable that this is an ebb and flow to the season. Hopefully, they bust the slump trend in NYC. The Mets have a good lineup. 

We have a better idea of the shopping list for Jed, 3B, SP, lockdown closer. That's a long list and will require a high price. Let's all hope Shaw is ready to take over by mid June. 

[Derwood]

The lack of depth will register more as the weather gets hot. Guys like Happ, Tucker, Seiya and Dansby simply cannot play every single day

[Jason Ross]

Every team will drop series. The Cubs will eventually lose 5 games in a row at some point. The bats will go cold for a few weeks. 

A good reminder is this: when things are going really well, it's never as good as it seems at the top. When things are going really well, you're almost assuredly getting positive variance, and positive luck. Balls that shouldn't drop are, and balls that should for the other team don't.

The same reigns true for when things aren't great. When the Cubs get swept against a team they shouldn't, or they lose five of seven in a week, balls that should drop won't be. The umpires will make calls that go against us. Things are never as bad as they feel when you're at the lowest.

This is what happens over a 162 game year. Weird things happen. As hard as it can be, I just try to remain balanced. I think the Cubs are a pretty good team. Imperfect? Sure. But every team is imperfect. Even the Dodgers.

[squally1313]

The Cubs averaging 5 runs a game in the Giants series, after averaging 5.3 runs a game in the Brewers series, after averaging 6.6 runs a game in the Pirates series, is technically yes trending down, but not at all portending a 'slump'. 5 runs a game gets you 810 over a season which would have been fourth in baseball last year. We were hitting at a borderline historic pace for the first month or so of the year (123 wRC, which would have been second best of any single season team in baseball since 2020). It's coming down to 'just' being a really good offense and we're having grouping/timing issues. It happens. 

To 1908's point: it's absolutely going to get worse than this. And that's fine, we had a really strong start and we have a really good opportunity coming out of the Mets series to pad the record (Miami, CWS, Miami, Cincy maybe without Hunter Greene, Colorado, Cincy, Washington). We need a starter, maybe two, and we need Shaw to provide some consistency at third (even if it's not a bunch of excess production). But I think the offense alone gets us to 85 wins and I think that probably is enough to win the division, so we have some cushion to identify the needs and the best solutions to optimize getting beyond just a playoff appearance. 

[Outshined_One]

3 hours ago, Derwood said:

The lack of depth will register more as the weather gets hot. Guys like Happ, Tucker, Seiya and Dansby simply cannot play every single day

I'm not as worried about position player depth as pitching. There's enough quality depth at the top of the minors to cover most of the IF and OF if anyone has to take an extended IL stint, and I think the team would be able to tread water in those circumstances.

Pitching, on the other hand...ugh.

[Dfan25]

Kaplan is hearing Horton will come up Saturday . If true the 40 roster move will be interesting . I don’t see an obvious DFA candidate .  Do they give up on Pearson ? 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

9 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

Kaplan is hearing Horton will come up Saturday . If true the 40 roster move will be interesting . I don’t see an obvious DFA candidate .  Do they give up on Pearson ? 

Morgan to the 60 day IL feels like the path of least resistance since he'd only have to be IL'd for 5 more weeks to get to 60 days and there hasn't been much sign of him being back to pitching.

[Dfan25]

7 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Morgan to the 60 day IL feels like the path of least resistance since he'd only have to be IL'd for 5 more weeks to get to 60 days and there hasn't been much sign of him being back to pitching.

Yeah , for some reason I thought Morgan was already on the 60. That should take care of the problem .

[Jason Ross]

Tommy Birch, Iowa Cubs beat writer also confirming: Cade Horton will be called up

[Irrelevant Dude]

This is exciting.  It has been a LONG time since the Cubs have had a legitimate SP prospect debut.

[squally1313]

27 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

This is exciting.  It has been a LONG time since the Cubs have had a legitimate SP prospect debut.

Alec Mills erasure

[Outshined_One]

26 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

This is exciting.  It has been a LONG time since the Cubs have had a legitimate SP prospect debut.

Trying to rack my brain on the last time the Cubs had a SP like Horton debut. Wicks was probably the closest in recent memory, but his stuff/upside wasn't comparable.

Juan Cruz maybe?

[We Got The Whole 9]

10 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

Trying to rack my brain on the last time the Cubs had a SP like Horton debut. Wicks was probably the closest in recent memory, but his stuff/upside wasn't comparable.

Juan Cruz maybe?

Cruz was before the real answer to your question

[Jason Ross]

22 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

Trying to rack my brain on the last time the Cubs had a SP like Horton debut. Wicks was probably the closest in recent memory, but his stuff/upside wasn't comparable.

Juan Cruz maybe?

Cruz made his debut in 2001. Mark Prior his debut in 2002. So I would give the nod to Prior as the "most recent" in this tier of upside. 

We had some cool prospects make some debuts, such as Hendricks but I think this is the most excited I've been to see a starting pitching get a shot since Prior. 

Also. This.

[Outshined_One]

I had it in my head that Cruz was called up later. 🤷‍♂️

Prior's callup was fun. I was good friends with his cousin in HS and Prior stayed with them when he first came to Chicago.

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

I had it in my head that Cruz was called up later. 🤷‍♂️

Prior's callup was fun. I was good friends with his cousin in HS and Prior stayed with them when he first came to Chicago.

Honestly, had to look it up once you mentioned Cruz! I kind of forget Cruz and how great of a prospect he was. I knew it was in that "early 00's" but couldn't remember if he beat Mark by a year, or was a year after. 25 years ago was a long time ago. 

Mark Prior is really the first "prospect" I remembered following. Before that it was more like these guys appeared as if an apparition, out of thin air. Prior was kind of the first guy I knew of draft to first game. 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Yeah, it's clearly Prior. 

Cashner and Brown debuted as relievers. Samardzija, Hendricks and Steele weren't top 100 prospects (and Samardzija and Steele debuted as relievers).

It's been a pretty rough few decades for homegrown pitchers.