Padres (Hart) vs Cubs (Brown): 4/6/25, 1:20pm

[CUBDOM4life]

3 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

This is not in question.  But he is also pretty bad within the given restraints.

Fair enough. In hindsight, I agree with you. We could have thrown onkc onto the roster to back up 1B and spent the Turner money elsewhere

[17 Seconds]

2 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Games lost when the Cubs have a lead in the 8th inning or later tracker:  2

Games lost when the Cubs had a lead in the 8th inning or later through 12 games last year: 2

 

Oh yeah its back!

It's annoying, but the cubs gave up 21 baserunnerss, it's hard for me to care about when the padres took the lead

[Transmogrified Tiger]

10 minutes ago, Max Power said:

The Cubs organization’s insistence on stocking the bullpen with bat seeking nibblers has to change at some point, doesn’t it?

I don't really see an organizational approach thing there.  The biggest culprits for walks so far have been Pressly, Thielbar, and Pearson, none of whom have the history with walks that would suggest that.  It's mostly a 'relievers are very random over a handful of outings' thing, along with 'relievers are pretty random year to year' and possibly a bit of a coaching/pitch-calling phenomenon.  Playing the offenses they have doesn't help either.

[BKHoo]

Counsel is supposed to add Ws, right? Geeez. 

[UMFan83]

1 minute ago, 17 Seconds said:

It's annoying, but the cubs gave up 21 baserunnerss, it's hard for me to care about when the padres took the lead

I kind of do care because I'd like our 8th and 9th inning guys to be lockdown.  Hodge has mostly looked good but gave up the tying run today.  Presley has been a disaster and while he didn't make the error and should have been out of the inning the leadoff walk doomed him.

If you could feel confident about your 8th and 9th inning guys, it makes baseball games so much easier to manage.  Hodge might be one, but not convinced he's a lockdown reliever just yet.  Really wish we got Treinen

Edited April 6, 2025 by UMFan83

[SpongeWorthy]

5 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I don't really see an organizational approach thing there.  The biggest culprits for walks so far have been Pressly, Thielbar, and Pearson, none of whom have the history with walks that would suggest that.  It's mostly a 'relievers are very random over a handful of outings' thing, along with 'relievers are pretty random year to year' and possibly a bit of a coaching/pitch-calling phenomenon.  Playing the offenses they have doesn't help either.

thielbar's command was terrible last year as a 37 year old and pearson has never been good so i'm not sure what positive variance we should expect to lean into

[Transmogrified Tiger]

5 minutes ago, SpongeWorthy said:

thielbar's command was terrible last year as a 37 year old and pearson has never been good so i'm not sure what positive variance we should expect to lean into

Thielbar's BB% last year was a career-worst 11.1% and after today it is north of 26%.  Pearson ran a sub-4% BB% as a Cub and is currently at 14%, his worst since before his arm surgery. Pressly hadn't been above 9% for 9 years running and after today is 20%. For context, average teamwide BB% from RP as of today is about 10%.

[muntjack]

Sure,  but BB% is always going to go up as stuff diminishes.  Necessarily playing at the edges of the zone because you a are throwing 92 instead of 96 is one factor.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

4 minutes ago, muntjack said:

Sure,  but BB% is always going to go up as stuff diminishes.  Necessarily playing at the edges of the zone because you a are throwing 92 instead of 96 is one factor.

It's just not rational to think 'ah yes this level of walk rate from these relievers was clearly foreseeable'.  And the diminishing stuff bit is largely a post-hoc justification and not even particularly true, Pressly's velocity is the same as it was last year, Pearson's is higher!  

Sometimes weird stuff happens in small samples, especially when you have an abnormal calendar to start the year and you're facing a bunch of good offenses in a row(note that BBs were not a problem against the A's).  Sometimes the bad stuff will continue, I'm concerned about Pressly not missing bats on top of the walks.  But not every upsetting day from the pen(or the offense, or a SP) has to be proof positive of a structural issue.

[Jason Ross]

14 minutes ago, muntjack said:

Sure,  but BB% is always going to go up as stuff diminishes.  Necessarily playing at the edges of the zone because you a are throwing 92 instead of 96 is one factor.

Pressley has seen his fastball average 93.9 mph (entering today). This is identical to last year, where he walked 7.4% of hitters faced. His career walk rate is 7.2%. If we want to blame the increase in walks on stuff decline, then it doesn't really check out on the fastball like you're pointing to, when compared to 2024 or his career walk rate. 

Now, we can point to his slider as not grading out well this year - that's fair. His slider has always been a Stuff+ monster and this year it's been bad. He's getting less horizontal break on it in 2025 and a significant lack of whiff. Whether this is a dead arm, whether this is age (though the fastball velocity suggests it might not be), or mechanical flaw...I'm unsure. But that's probably the thing to monitor. The walk rate should be alright if he can figure out the slider. But if he cannot figure out the slider, he will be a problem.

[Derwood]

If only our relievers could get Seiya’s strike zone. 

Edited April 6, 2025 by Derwood

[Stratos]

6 hours ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

If Tom can't turn Jed into the scapegoat, and the Cubs don't re-sign Tucker, there's no way Tom shows his face at Cubs Convention next year.

Fans would throw poo at Tom.

[Stratos]

Surprised Rea didn't make an appearance today.  Is he dead?

[Stratos]

2 of 3 and almost a sweep against a hot team with a tough lineup and pen is still pretty good.

[Stratos]

Cubs pitchers are 2nd worst in MLB in walks allowed.  Have played 2 extra games though.  Walk rate not as bad.

Edited April 7, 2025 by Stratos

[BKHoo]

PCA sux right now. Can’t hit. Can’t bunt. 

[CubinNY]

Bad ending, but a good series for the Cubs. I'm not going to make a lot out of Brown's start. The other guy couldn't throw strikes, either. 

[mul21]

I didn't read the whole thread so not sure if it's been mentioned, but the offense doing absolutely nothing after the first 2 innings is as much to blame as the relievers and Brown.  7 runs should be enough to win a game but when you get them all in the first 2 innings and barely manage a hit after that I don't think you can just say stupid bullpen and call it a day.  Still, 2 of 3 against the Padres is a net positive.

[UMFan83]

Cubs offense has started out hot for the 3rd straight year.  Here is how they compare and how they did in May and June in 2023 and 2024.

2025: 77 runs (6.4 runs per game) - .776 OPS thru 12 games

2024: 73 runs (6.1 RPG) - .771 OPS thru 12 games, .647 OPS May, .682 OPS June

2023: 69 runs (5.8 RPG) - .779 OPS thru 12 games, .696 OPS May, .697 OPS June

 

I know I make weird connections to things that don't have any relationship to each other, but I am not claiming how they hit in April determines how they will hit in May and June, just pointing out that it feels very familiar to how the last 2 years have started: hot offense, shaky bullpen. 

[squally1313]

12 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Cubs offense has started out hot for the 3rd straight year.  Here is how they compare and how they did in May and June in 2023 and 2024.

2025: 77 runs (6.4 runs per game) - .776 OPS thru 12 games

2024: 73 runs (6.1 RPG) - .771 OPS thru 12 games, .647 OPS May, .682 OPS June

2023: 69 runs (5.8 RPG) - .779 OPS thru 12 games, .696 OPS May, .697 OPS June

 

I know I make weird connections to things that don't have any relationship to each other, but I am not claiming how they hit in April determines how they will hit in May and June, just pointing out that it feels very familiar to how the last 2 years have started: hot offense, shaky bullpen. 

Yeah I finally went back and found it after meaning to make this comment for a few days, but on 4/5/24 the Dodgers were in town and the Cubs chased then-top-prospect Bobby Miller in a 5 run second inning by just grinding him out (HR/walk/single/single/FO/walk/double) and I remember thinking that the team could be special because there just weren't any weak spots. Of course I was thinking that about a lineup that had Morel, Madrigal, and Gomes in the lineup, and also thinking Bobby Miller was good. Which is all to say....baseball seasons are so long. 

[chibears55]

18 hours ago, CUBDOM4life said:

I still feel Hoyer is restricted by Ricketts

Then he needs to do better with evaluating the available talent that he can add  to his roster

[CUBDOM4life]

9 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Then he needs to do better with evaluating the available talent that he can add  to his roster

I mean, this team is about to be 8-5, in first place with one of the best run differentials in MLB… with a sub-luxury tax payroll ($20 million). What more can you expect?

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, CUBDOM4life said:

I mean, this team is about to be 8-5, in first place with one of the best run differentials in MLB… with a sub-luxury tax payroll ($20 million). What more can you expect?

Cubs have the best run differential in the MLB as of right now, even with the 2 extra games in Tokyo and losing them.

[We Got The Whole 9]

The team is really good but Jed should have pushed harder for Scott et al. I still believe Robertson can help the team as well. The pen can easily sink the ship. I definitely don't feel like it is one you want to carry into November. 

[chibears55]

22 hours ago, CUBDOM4life said:

I mean, this team is about to be 8-5, in first place with one of the best run differentials in MLB… with a sub-luxury tax payroll ($20 million). What more can you expect?

They beat up on the As in a minor league park, what I want is for him to be better at evaluating pitching, especially for the bullpen if he's going to be restricted with payroll.

Quit signing guys that at end of career just because they come cheap and he ends up releasing them later in season.

He would need to do better going forward if he remains with the Cubs after this season