I don’t think we are good enough yet.

[Bertz]

The projections like Cease and King pretty equally, but Cease has WAY more track record (including shocking durability for someone who throws as hard as he does) and way better pure stuff.  I imagine that impacts trade value to a meaningful degree.

[Rcal10]

30 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

An extension should not be taken into account on trade value since the contract either player would sign is a different transaction. As of now, the Padres and any team acquiring either are trading one year of control. 

I would assume King would be slightly less expensive via trade, however,. as the perceived value of Cease is likely more due to track record. Though I'm not sure it's a massive difference.

I realize the current team couldn’t care less about if the team he is traded to can sign him long term. But I have to believe that’s a consideration for the team trying to get one of those players. If a team values them equally I would think they would go a little harder on King than Cease if they felt his agent would be easier to deal with than Boras. That is, or course, if retaining either is even something the team trading for one of them is something they want to do. In the case of the Cubs, I would hope they would traded or one of them either the intent on!extending whoever they traded for. 

[Rcal10]

36 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

An extension should not be taken into account on trade value since the contract either player would sign is a different transaction. As of now, the Padres and any team acquiring either are trading one year of control. 

I would assume King would be slightly less expensive via trade, however,. as the perceived value of Cease is likely more due to track record. Though I'm not sure it's a massive difference.

Delete. Double post

Edited January 28, 2025 by Rcal10

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Rcal10 said:

I realize the current team couldn’t care less about if the team he is traded to can sign him long term. But I have to believe that’s a consideration for the team trying to get one of those players. If a team values them equally I would think they would go a little harder on King than Cease if they felt his agent would be easier to deal with than Boras. That is, or course, if retaining either is even something the team trading for one of them is something they want to do. In the case of the Cubs, I would hope they would traded or one of them either the intent on!extending whoever they traded for. 

It is a separate transaction. Once the Padres trade Michael King or Dylan Cease, what happens between the acquiring team and that players has nothing to do with SD - it means they can't really ask for more or expect more. I also don't think the Cubs would thus, pay more. At least in terms of anything significant. 

I do think Dylan Cease, due to track record will cost more. But I don't think the price on King is going to magically equal that of Cease simply because he doesn't have Boras as an agent. 

[BKHoo]

Ehh a true number 1 that can dominate in short playoff series is pretty important. Game 1 is the most important game of every playoff series. Steele is a borderline number 1. I’m not sure he is the number 1 on most contending teams. 
 

Aim higher Cubs. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just now, BKHoo said:

Ehh a true number 1 that can dominate in short playoff series is pretty important. Game 1 is the most important game of every playoff series. Steele is a borderline number 1. I’m not sure he is the number 1 on most contending teams. 
 

Aim higher Cubs. 

I understand what you're getting at, but this is an arbitrary line to draw and ultimately not very helpful.  I think you can make reasonable arguments that there are anywhere from 1 to 5 NL teams with a clearly better Game 1 starter than Steele.  Getting into the minutiae of what you like more in a pitcher for what you put for that answer isn't all that useful for roster building.

 

IMO a better way to think of this is to get starters good enough that you're fine with them starting multiple games in a playoff series.  Steele and Shota both are clearly in this group, and ideally you'd have another that I don't think they have today.  

[Rcal10]

13 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

It is a separate transaction. Once the Padres trade Michael King or Dylan Cease, what happens between the acquiring team and that players has nothing to do with SD - it means they can't really ask for more or expect more. I also don't think the Cubs would thus, pay more. At least in terms of anything significant. 

I do think Dylan Cease, due to track record will cost more. But I don't think the price on King is going to magically equal that of Cease simply because he doesn't have Boras as an agent. 

I agree with part about the Padres asking for what they ask and not caring about what happens after the trade. I disagree that the team trading for a particular player doesn’t consider if he can be retained. That is, of course, unless their plan is to only have a guy for one year. But if the Cubs are looking long term and really want a pitcher now who they also hope to keep after this season, I would think they would be more aggressive with a trade for whichever they think they can sign. The buying team has to factor that in IMO. Unless, of course, if the man calling the shots is on the last year of his contract, maybe he doesn’t care……

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I understand what you're getting at, but this is an arbitrary line to draw and ultimately not very helpful.  I think you can make reasonable arguments that there are anywhere from 1 to 5 NL teams with a clearly better Game 1 starter than Steele.  Getting into the minutiae of what you like more in a pitcher for what you put for that answer isn't all that useful for roster building.

 

IMO a better way to think of this is to get starters good enough that you're fine with them starting multiple games in a playoff series.  Steele and Shota both are clearly in this group, and ideally you'd have another that I don't think they have today.  

I agree with this.’

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

I agree with part about the Padres asking for what they ask and not caring about what happens after the trade. I disagree that the team trading for a particular player doesn’t consider if he can be retained. That is, of course, unless their plan is to only have a guy for one year. But if the Cubs are looking long term and really want a pitcher now who they also hope to keep after this season, I would think they would be more aggressive with a trade for whichever they think they can sign. The buying team has to factor that in IMO. Unless, of course, if the man calling the shots is on the last year of his contract, maybe he doesn’t care……

I think this general argument/thought process falls apart if you play it out. Like yeah, it's easy to make Boras the villain here. But ultimately both guys are going to (correctly) want to maximize their future wealth. Getting into some weird theoretical discussion about markets or weather or agents or whatever else is pretty futile when you can just pare it down to 'these guys want the most money they can get'. Now, there's maybe some merit to 'the market values Cease higher due to track record/throwing really hard/has a cool mustache, but I think King will perform/age better based on proprietary models'. But that would drive the first decision (the trade) more so than the subsequent extension conversation. 

[Jason Ross]

11 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I agree with part about the Padres asking for what they ask and not caring about what happens after the trade. I disagree that the team trading for a particular player doesn’t consider if he can be retained. That is, of course, unless their plan is to only have a guy for one year. But if the Cubs are looking long term and really want a pitcher now who they also hope to keep after this season, I would think they would be more aggressive with a trade for whichever they think they can sign. The buying team has to factor that in IMO. Unless, of course, if the man calling the shots is on the last year of his contract, maybe he doesn’t care……

The Cubs or any acquiring team is not likely to have any real concept of what a player is likely to want or need for a contract extension. They're not factoring this in to their bottom line. Ultimately, the Cubs are only acquiring Michael King or Dylan Cease for a year. Perhaps they're more interested, in say, pursuing King over Cease for that reason, but I don't think the bottom line is changing much. They can't be assured they're going to get King for any more time than 1 year. 

[Rcal10]

22 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

The Cubs or any acquiring team is not likely to have any real concept of what a player is likely to want or need for a contract extension. They're not factoring this in to their bottom line. Ultimately, the Cubs are only acquiring Michael King or Dylan Cease for a year. Perhaps they're more interested, in say, pursuing King over Cease for that reason, but I don't think the bottom line is changing much. They can't be assured they're going to get King for any more time than 1 year. 

I disagree, but I am fine agreeing to disagree. 

[harmony]

FanGraphs currently ranks the Cubs seventh in the National League in projected 2025 WAR overall, including fifth in the league in position player WAR and 11th in the league in pitching WAR:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=17

[muntjack]

No.

[Tryptamine]

41 minutes ago, harmony said:

FanGraphs currently ranks the Cubs seventh in the National League in projected 2025 WAR overall, including fifth in the league in position player WAR and 11th in the league in pitching WAR:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=17

That list has so many Cubs having way below average years. Apparently Seiya is going to have the worst year of his career. Tucker his worst year since 2020, PCA will put up the same value in 50% more ABs, Happ will have his worst year since 2021, Dansby his worst year since 2021, etc. etc. Fantastic projection system when it has everyone getting worse, some significantly. 

[Bertz]

56 minutes ago, harmony said:

FanGraphs currently ranks the Cubs seventh in the National League in projected 2025 WAR overall, including fifth in the league in position player WAR and 11th in the league in pitching WAR:

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=17

Steamer's utility is in its availability not its accuracy.  ZiPS is the gold standard among public systems.

[SABR Gamer]

This is, obviously, an imperfect method, but with the Padres' projections finally in and giving us the entire league, I put every team into an Excel sheet to compare. The win totals were way too high using 47.7 as replacement level, with the league averaging 86.5 wins. So, I adjusted replacement level down to allow for the league to average 81 wins, and here are the results: 

 

ETA: I had to correct a mistake. I adjusted the Astros win total down 1 win after the Padres projection came in. They were at 88 wins using 81-81 as the Padres placeholder record, and when the Padres came in at one win more than that, it required a minor replacement level adjustment to get the perfect 81 average, lowering the Astros to 87 wins. 2nd edit: Mets too.

Edited January 30, 2025 by SABR Gamer

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, SABR Gamer said:

This is, obviously, an imperfect method, but with the Padres' projections finally in and giving us the entire league, I put every team into an Excel sheet to compare. The win totals were way too high using 47.7 as replacement level, with the league averaging 86.5 wins. So, I adjusted replacement level down to allow for the league to average 81 wins, and here are the results: 

 

ETA: I had to correct a mistake. I adjusted the Astros win total down 1 win after the Padres projection came in. They were at 88 wins using 81-81 as the Padres placeholder record, and when the Padres came in at one win more than that, it required a minor replacement level adjustment to get the perfect 81 average, lowering the Astros to 87 wins. 

Cubs are the 3rd best team in the MLB by those projections.  Nice.  They aren't even done spending.

Edited January 30, 2025 by Stratos