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harmony

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Everything posted by harmony

  1. harmony
    The Cubs and Seattle Mariners face similar questions on whether to upgrade from a current rookie third baseman. The Cubs have received 1.3 bWAR in 70 games from Matt Shaw while the Mariners have received 1.2 bWAR in 80 games from Ben Williamson. Shaw has 6 Defensive Runs Saves in 562.2 innings while Williamson has 7 DRS in 662 inninngs. Shaw has posted a wRC+ of 82 in 252 plate appearances while Williamson has posted a wRC+ of 75 in 279 plate appearances. ZiPS projects Shaw and Williamson with 0.6 WAR each the remainder of the season, Shaw in 42 games and Williamson in 47 games. The Cubs selected Shaw out of the University of Maryland with the 13th overall pick in the 2023 draft while Seattle took Williamson out of William & Mary 44 picks later. Shaw is a year younger than Williamson, who played four years at the college level to Shaw's three years.
  2. harmony
    No Seattle Mariners? With Seattle's trade for the lefthand-hitting Josh Naylor, speculation is that the Mariners might make available the lefthanded bat of Luke Raley or Dominic Canzone. Raley, who comes with three more years of team control, has posted 6.3 bWAR and an OPS+ of 124 since the start of the 2023 season. Canzone, who comes with four or five years of team control, has posted 0.8 bWAR and an OPS+ of 147 in 36 games this year after posting a .296/.360/.564/.925 line in 45 games at Triple A Tacoma.
  3. harmony
    The third Wild Card berth is becoming a blight on the trade deadline—perhaps more with each passing year. Is it a bad thing that mediocre teams are discouraged from tanking by becoming sellers at the trade deadline? Does the expanded postseason format encourage clubs to build long-term during the offseason instead of depending on a two-month fix by poaching off struggling teams at the trade deadline?
  4. harmony
    Thanks. The previous post has been clarified.
  5. harmony
    Despite the "fringe garbage bats in the Mariners' lineup," Seattle ranks second in the American League with a team OPS+ of 111: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2025.shtml
  6. harmony
    Since the start of the 2022 season Cal Raleigh ranks ninth among all hitters with an fWAR of 18.3, ahead of Dansby Swanson and Kyle Tucker, among others: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2022&season=2025 Swanson and Tucker made a combined five All Star appearances over that period while Raleigh made none. Heading into Friday's game, Raleigh had posted 4.4 fWAR in 72 games this season while Pete Crow-Armstrong had posted 4.1 fWAR in 73 games: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2025&season=2025
  7. harmony
    Before the series with the Cubs, the White Sox had taken two of three from the Reds and the Marlins (not the Mariners). Sweeps are indeed sweet. Coming off a 1-5 homestand, this weekend the Mariners swept the Padres, who entered the series in San Diego with a 27-15 record.
  8. harmony
    Seattle seems short one starter currently and is unlikely to trade from the rotation coming off a 5-1 homestand. Through Saturday's games the Mariners had posted an OPS+ of 105 and an ERA+ of 99.
  9. harmony
    The Red Sox reportedly will sign Alex Bregman to a three-year, $120 million contract: https://x.com/Chandler_Rome/status/1889878592005480904 Can this redundant post be deleted?
  10. harmony
    Hours have passed since this obscure source reported that Alex Bregman and the Detroit Tigers have reached a contract agreement: https://bsky.app/profile/alvingarcia.bsky.social/post/3lhwj5vnqk22h The lack of confirming news renders the report unreliable (but interesting).
  11. harmony
    FanGraphs currently ranks the Cubs seventh in the National League in projected 2025 WAR overall, including fifth in the league in position player WAR and 11th in the league in pitching WAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=17
  12. harmony
    Feedback is always welcome. Thank you.
  13. harmony
    Indeed the Cubs have moved ahead of the Seattle Mariners in FanGraphs' projected position player WAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3 ... while still trailing the Mariners in overall projected 2025 WAR.
  14. harmony
    Last year the Cubs posted a team wRC+ of 101 while the Seattle Mariners posted a team wRC+ of 104, including a league-leading wRC+ of 118 after August 15.
  15. harmony
    According to Roster Resource, the current Seattle first baseman is Luke Raley, who this year posted 3.2 bWAR in 137 games to Cody Bellinger's 2.2 bWAR in 130 games.
  16. harmony
    "Castillo is not clearly superior to Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga ..." FWIW ZiPS projects 2025 WAR of 3.3 for Justin Steele, 3.1 for Shota Imanaga and 3.3 for Luis Castillo. Steamer projects 2025 WAR of 2.8 for Steele, 3.0 for Imanaga and 2.8 for Castillo.
  17. harmony
    This year the Seattle Mariners posted a team wRC+ of 104, including a league-leading wRC+ of 118 after 118. The Cubs this year posted a team wRC+ of 101. This offseason the Mariners and Cubs look to upgrade their hitting.
  18. harmony
    The reference to "the previous three seasons" came directly after the sentence that noted the "disparity in their 2024 production." As noted: "Snell may well have the higher ceiling but Castillo has been more durable and reliable." Durability is a scarce commodity among today's starting pitchers. Castillo has averaged 186 innings per season the last two years (and 177 innings over the last four years) while Snell has averaged 142 innings per season the last two years (and 135 over the last four years).
  19. harmony
    Blake Snell and Luis Castillo, who were born eight days apart, have each made 211 starts in their MLB careers. Snell has posted 24.5 fWAR and 23.4 bWAR over 1,096.2 innings while Castillo has posted 23.9 fWAR and 24.0 bWAR over 1,230 innings. Over the past four seasons Snell has made 103 starts while Castillo has made 121 starts. The disparity in their 2024 production cannot be ignored but at what point does recency bias enter the equation? Over the three previous seasons, including Snell’s 2023 Cy Young campaign, Snell posted 9.9 fWAR and 9.7 bWAR in 83 starts while Castillo posted 10.9 fWAR and 11.5 bWAR in 91 starts. Would Castillo waive his no-trade clause to join the Cubs? Snell may well have the higher ceiling but Castillo has been more durable and reliable. Each quality provides value. Given the deals landed by Snell and other starters this offseason, Castillo’s contract is not underwater.
  20. harmony
    Matthew Boyd cannot be traded without his permission until June 15.
  21. harmony
    Rumored negotiations on three-way trade involving Cubs, White Sox and Mariners: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9qlUp9MaB8
  22. harmony
    Or a trade partner could be looking for an injury discount: https://orthoinfo.aaos.org/en/diseases--conditions/flexor-tendon-injuries/
  23. harmony
    Any updates on Nico Hoerner's recovery from concerning flexor tendon surgury? Will Hoerner be ready when players report to Spring Training? Will Hoerner be available on Opening Day? This year Bryan Woo averaged 6+ innings over his final 11 starts. Woo posted quality starts in 10 of his 22 starts this year; as a point of reference, Justin Steele recorded quality starts in 11 of his 24 starts this year.
  24. harmony
    Whose arm health is more concerning: Nico Hoerner's or Bryan Woo's?
  25. harmony
    Bryan Woo has one year and 121 days of MLB service, according to Baseball Reference. This year Super Two status was set at two years, 132 days: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/super-two-status-set-at-2-132-years-of-service.html Regardless, Seattle is unlikely to trade a young, cost-controlled starter for Nico Hoerner whose recovery from flexor tendon surgery may cut into his two years of team control at a guaranteed $23.5 million. If Hoerner would flop in Seattle -- ala recent second basemen Adam Frazier, Kolten Wong and Jorge Polanco -- the Mariners would be on the hook for $12 million in 2026.
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