Jesse Rogers on Cubs Future

[Dfan25]

If true , then its hard for me to understand the Kyle Tucker trade .

[We Got The Whole 9]

The Tucker trade happened for a multitude of reasons:

 

1) It's a chance to add a 8-9 win player based on last year's pace and that would be enough to swing the division in our favor, for less-than-half of what the market would likely pay him.

2) Matt Shaw 

3) Jed's on his final season and that probably allowed him to work a little more loosely with his prospects and a division crown probably keeps him in charge.

4) Paredes was a bad fit but had really high value to offset the prospect cost

Edited December 26, 2024 by We Got The Whole 9

[SOFNR]

If we get to next offseason and find out the Cubs never made any attempts at an extension and have no plans to bid for Tucker in FA I'll be pretty annoyed. But for the moment I'm still pretty jazzed that Hoyer was finally willing to take a swing. He's been ultra conservative with his prospects to this point and I think this was a good gamble. Tucker looks like a guy potentially breaking out into superstar status. That might price him out for us. But I'll take that risk for a Cam Smith every time. But they better still bring another starting pitcher and a back of the bullpen guy. Give this team a realistic shot to compete. And hell, if we get to mid-season, and its obvious we're not extending Tucker, and he's gonna cost too much in FA, then make some ballsy deadline moves, jump past that tax again this year, and give them a real chance in the playoffs. Nobodys gonna care about Cam Smith if they win another world series. 

[LBiittner]

21 hours ago, Stratos said:

It's been over 10 years and Ricketts has never signed a megadeal.  It's probably never going to happen.

Thank bejesus Heyward was merely a spit in the ocean of contracts

[Bertz]

56 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Thank bejesus Heyward was merely a spit in the ocean of contracts

When Jason Heyward's contract was signed it was around the 10thish biggest ever (I'm not going to do the work right now to find what order the contracts signed that winter got done).  

The 10thish biggest contract currently is Corey Seager's $325M.

[Wilson A2000]

How did the Cubs end up with the billionaires who don't really like to spend what they should to win? Aren't there like a billion other billionaire owners in pro sports who just throw money around like crazy because they want to win? How'd the Cubs get the cheap one? 

[LBiittner]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

When Jason Heyward's contract was signed it was around the 10thish biggest ever (I'm not going to do the work right now to find what order the contracts signed that winter got done).  

The 10thish biggest contract currently is Corey Seager's $325M.

Me thinks Stratos was confused when he used the word never or he wasn't sure about the term megadeal?

[Stratos]

10 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

The Tucker trade happened for a multitude of reasons:

 

1) It's a chance to add a 8-9 win player based on last year's pace and that would be enough to swing the division in our favor, for less-than-half of what the market would likely pay him.

2) Matt Shaw 

3) Jed's on his final season and that probably allowed him to work a little more loosely with his prospects and a division crown probably keeps him in charge.

4) Paredes was a bad fit but had really high value to offset the prospect cost

If my job were on the line i'd probably trade one of my best prospects too.

[Stratos]

  

7 hours ago, Bertz said:

When Jason Heyward's contract was signed it was around the 10thish biggest ever (I'm not going to do the work right now to find what order the contracts signed that winter got done).  

The 10thish biggest contract currently is Corey Seager's $325M.

It was the 20th biggest deal ever at the time, and among all active players in 2016 the deal gave Heyward the 18th highest AAV in baseball.  It was a big deal but not sure i'd call it a megadeal.

He was also coming off his age 25 season, so it makes sense they were willing to go 8 years.  Would they give a 400m or 450m deal to Tucker going into his age 29 season when the extension takes effect, which would make it the 4rd highest contract in baseball history?  Very doubtful.

Unless we get good AAV value like the Swanson and Heyward deals were at the time, it looks like the only way we get a player of his caliber is via draft or trade.

Edited December 27, 2024 by Stratos

[CubinNY]

11 hours ago, Wilson A2000 said:

How did the Cubs end up with the billionaires who don't really like to spend what they should to win? Aren't there like a billion other billionaire owners in pro sports who just throw money around like crazy because they want to win? How'd the Cubs get the cheap one? 

No. And the ones who would spend aren’t interested or wouldn’t pass muster. The Ricketts are awful humans. But they aren’t as bad as some owners. They should own the Royals or the Reds or some other franchise. 
 

Their philosophy is driven by the idea that the luxury tax level is enough money to spend on a team and sustainable development is the path to winning. 
 

They prefer to keep the rest of the money for themselves. I suppose I get it because they are splitting it 5 ways plus they have to give their investors a cut. But they are making money on the park environment that they are not sharing. 
 

As middle class people who are fans of team we cannot comprehend their lifestyle, appetites, and values. 

[Wilson A2000]

49 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

No. And the ones who would spend aren’t interested or wouldn’t pass muster. The Ricketts are awful humans. But they aren’t as bad as some owners. They should own the Royals or the Reds or some other franchise. 
 

Their philosophy is driven by the idea that the luxury tax level is enough money to spend on a team and sustainable development is the path to winning. 
 

They prefer to keep the rest of the money for themselves. I suppose I get it because they are splitting it 5 ways plus they have to give their investors a cut. But they are making money on the park environment that they are not sharing. 
 

As middle class people who are fans of team we cannot comprehend their lifestyle, appetites, and values. 

I thought all of the money the Cubs made went back to the team?

[CubinNY]

1 hour ago, Wilson A2000 said:

I thought all of the money the Cubs made went back to the team?

They lie a lot. I mean, really a lot, like all the time. They had the third highest revenue and the 10th highest payroll for an approximate 54% profit margin. I imagine the margins are less for the Ricketts as they have a group of minority owners who own about 5% of the team. That does not include all their side projects and whatever else they own that we don't know about.

Edited December 27, 2024 by CubinNY

[Bertz]

8 hours ago, Stratos said:

  

It was the 20th biggest deal ever at the time, and among all active players in 2016 the deal gave Heyward the 18th highest AAV in baseball.  It was a big deal but not sure i'd call it a megadeal.

He was also coming off his age 25 season, so it makes sense they were willing to go 8 years.  Would they give a 400m or 450m deal to Tucker going into his age 29 season when the extension takes effect, which would make it the 4rd highest contract in baseball history?  Very doubtful.

Unless we get good AAV value like the Swanson and Heyward deals were at the time, it looks like the only way we get a player of his caliber is via draft or trade.

It most certainly was not 20th. It's tied for 40th right now and 26 of those deals started in 2017 or later:

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/

Like I said I'm nor going to do the work of figuring out who signed first between him and e.g. Greinke, but he signed early that offseason so he was something like 10th/11th/12th.  In today's dollars that's a $300M-something contract.

[Bull]

14 minutes ago, Bertz said:

It most certainly was not 20th. It's tied for 40th right now and 26 of those deals started in 2017 or later:

https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/league-info/highest-paid-players/

Like I said I'm nor going to do the work of figuring out who signed first between him and e.g. Greinke, but he signed early that offseason so he was something like 10th/11th/12th.  In today's dollars that's a $300M-something contract.

And regardless, your point stands. It was certainly a “megadeal” for its time, regardless of your definition of that term. Or we could say they were at the top tier of the FA market. 

[JunkyardWalrus]

3 hours ago, Wilson A2000 said:

I thought all of the money the Cubs made went back to the team?

Of course it does! Just wait for the trickle down!

[Bull]

I believe the lack of parity is bad for the sport and that a hard floor and hard cap would be good for it. 

I've lived near Chicago (South Bend), St. Louis (Alton, IL), Pittsburgh (Carlisle, PA), Boston (Portland, ME), Washington (Charlottesville, VA) and Cincy (Southern Indiana, Northern KY and West Virginia) and now Atlanta (SE TN).  (10 states total)

The hopelessness among Pittsburgh and Cincy fans and the sheer shock when the Nationals were good is something foreign to Cubs fans.

 

 

[jersey cubs fan]

19 hours ago, Wilson A2000 said:

How did the Cubs end up with the billionaires who don't really like to spend what they should to win? Aren't there like a billion other billionaire owners in pro sports who just throw money around like crazy because they want to win? How'd the Cubs get the cheap one? 

They made their money off of cheap stock market trades. Discount retailer investing. They know cheapness and cutting costs. 

[The_Achiever]

I'm going to be mad mad mad if Ricketty doesn't cough up for Tucker.  

 

That is all. 

[Wilson A2000]

Was it common knowledge that Ricketts sold part of the team to investors in 2020? I hadn’t heard that before. 

[Tryptamine]

So we're at the point where there are significant doubts that the Bellinger money that was saved is actually going to be reinvested.  That's fun.

[CubinNY]

9 hours ago, Wilson A2000 said:

Was it common knowledge that Ricketts sold part of the team to investors in 2020? I hadn’t heard that before. 

Yes. They sold some amount to the guy who owns the South Bend team and a few others. If the media calls that "private equity, " they need to look up the term. I thought it was before 2020. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

22 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

So we're at the point where there are significant doubts that the Bellinger money that was saved is actually going to be reinvested.  That's fun.

I still don't think that is really in question.  They are going to spend the money within shouting distance of the luxury tax.  We probably just won't like the way they spend it, prioritizing short term deals and trading assets for affordable Major League talent rather than making any significant long term investments.

[Tryptamine]

Just now, Irrelevant Dude said:

I still don't think that is really in question.  They are going to spend the money within shouting distance of the luxury tax.  We probably just won't like the way they spend it, prioritizing short term deals and trading assets for affordable Major League talent rather than making any significant long term investments.

With what Marlin said and now this article, I think it's a very real question if we'll see a payroll as high as last year.

[Irrelevant Dude]

Just now, Tryptamine said:

With what Marlin said and now this article, I think it's a very real question if we'll see a payroll as high as last year.

Technically we won't, because last year was over the tax and there is no way they are going over the tax this year.  But I still think they will spend relatively close to the tax with a bit more wiggle room for a deal or two at the deadline.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

I still don't think that is really in question.  They are going to spend the money within shouting distance of the luxury tax.  We probably just won't like the way they spend it, prioritizing short term deals and trading assets for affordable Major League talent rather than making any significant long term investments.

That's exactly what they're doing.  Trading out assets for cost savings because Ricketts won't spend at the level the 3rd highest revenue team should.

During Theo's run we could have held onto Cease or Torres if the team spent a bit more money to acquire a quality SP or closer instead of lacking serious talent and surplus the last few years because our farm system sucked.  If we had Cease alone we'd have been in the playoffs in 2023 and probably 2024.  Torres would have also given us 2-3 more wins at 3B each of the last couple of years as well, not to mention an upgrade on Russell in 2018-19.  Might have nabbed us the NL Central in 2019 too.

Thanks Tom.