Post Winter Meetings Free Agency thread

[Bertz]

52 minutes ago, KCCub said:

I think the silver lining is they've put together a good enough team that can get us to the TDL in a good spot as currently constructed (With the idea that they are still going to add to the margins with some of the remaining budget, Robertson, bench bat, etc). As much as I want a true TORP now, I can understand waiting until the deadline if the off-season demands are just to elevated for the guys who might be available - Cease/King. At least at the TDL you can get someone you know is healthy, and other, more appealing options might become available. 

 

Yeah I think if they don't make the move now it becomes imperative to do it at the deadline.  But, I do think there's enough support in place that I don't feel too bad about waiting for July.

We saw last year, the Brewers were pretty successful with Freddy Peralta and a bunch of innings eaters.  They were able to do this thanks to:

- A strong defense to mitigate all those extra balls in play

- A stellar bullpen to lock down close games and minimize unnecessary exposure for the weaker parts of the rotation

- A good offense that wins plenty of games where the pitching gives up 3/4/5 runs

I think, especially if we end up with Robertson or Suarez the Cubs should likely have all 3 of those components and be able to win plenty of games started by Taillon/Rea/Assad.  Add a playoff starter in July for the stretch run and we should be good.

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, thawv said:

Like 1908 said, his repeated issue has been repaired.  Barring a different injury, he should most certainly have 30 starts and 160 innings.   His reoccurring injury has been fixed.  I could be on an island here, but I expect him to be a very very good pitcher for us now that his elbow problems are behind him. 

I think going from 40 IP to 160 still building back from TJS is unlikely for him.  My impression is most orgs still don't like huge increases in IP year to year due to injury risk.

If he triples his innings to 120 i think that's an upper range spot for him.  Could make 30 starts but on a lower than average pitch count.

[Bertz]

Yeah Kilian is probably nothing at this point, at least as a SP.  He did have a big time velo bump last spring out of the bullpen, so you can at least dream on him in short relief.  98-100 generally plays even when it's fairly flat.

[Crusader]

2 hours ago, CubinNY said:

I don't know what the Cubs' plans are for Kilian or Brown, but before he got hurt, Kilian was dealing. He has the pitching repertoire to be a starter if he can throw strikes and has the potential to be a good one. I think Brown's repetitive movement neck injury thing or whatever makes him very unlikely to become a starter, but if he could... Needless to say, he also has the makings of a late inning guy, so if he is healthy, they have a pretty strong pen with all the other additions. 

I do tend to worry more about Shota and Steele taking a step back and putting more pressure on the pen. And I also worry about the brutal April and early May schedule taxing the pen until the ASB.

I said something similar a while ago. Although ST performances can be outliers that aren't good predictive meters for things to come, Kilian was down right dominant during ST last year. He was averaging 98 or 99, and would occasionally hit 101 now and again even when throwing 3-4 innings in multiple starts, and he was doing so with an easy and repeatable throwing motion that didn't come off max effort. Furthermore, he was locating his pitches well, especially that overpowering fastball. He was just blowing people away. He previously didn't really have an out pitch, but his fastball started to become one, and it played well with the change of velocity with his slider making that pitch also more effective. Unfortunately, then he got hurt in his last ST start.

https://x.com/WatchMarquee/status/1761142022943990036/video/1

According to his Triple A stats after he came back from the IL, it looks like he hit 99. 6 mph or so in one of his starts, but when he returned to MLB action and picked up a couple starts at the end of the year, he didn't seem to quite have the same velocity he had earlier in ST (he was only averaging 93.6 mph - the same velo he had in 2023), but it's also not as if it entirely disappeared, which isn't terrible after recovering from that injury. Even at 93.6 mph, Baseball Savant gave his FB a +1 in run value. If he shows up consistently throwing 4 or 5 mph harder, like he was in ST, you'd have to imagine he could be pretty effective. 

For me, he seems like our team's dark horse candidate on the pitching staff. If he comes back looking like the pitcher he was during ST last year, I think he can force his way into the starting rotation. 

Edited February 4, 2025 by Crusader

[chibears55]

Cubs and Bregman today ????

[Bobson Dugnutt]

7 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Cubs and Bregman today ????

no way I’m surprised no one’s talking about this possibility

[Stratos]

Pecota projects 84 wins for the Cubs hahaha

[Rob]

1 minute ago, Stratos said:

Pecota projects 84 wins for the Cubs hahaha

Projection systems always regress to the mean. It's a feature, not a bug.

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Stratos said:

Pecota projects 84 wins for the Cubs hahaha

No, Pecota still over 90. Fangraphs has them at 84. 

[squally1313]

I don't know if I care enough to try and find out on my own, but I am curious on the discrepancy behind the simple math of adding all the individual WAR numbers and what eventually got spit out here. I know you have to reduce playing time across the board, but not totally sure why it seemed to hit the Cubs the hardest. Fairly certain I had the Cubs ahead of the Mets, Phillies, and DBacks in pure cumulative math, all of which are now projected to have more wins than the Cubs, and I had us like 10 wins ahead of the Brewers, and that gap is now down to 3. 

[Rob]

2 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I don't know if I care enough to try and find out on my own, but I am curious on the discrepancy behind the simple math of adding all the individual WAR numbers and what eventually got spit out here. I know you have to reduce playing time across the board, but not totally sure why it seemed to hit the Cubs the hardest. Fairly certain I had the Cubs ahead of the Mets, Phillies, and DBacks in pure cumulative math, all of which are now projected to have more wins than the Cubs, and I had us like 10 wins ahead of the Brewers, and that gap is now down to 3. 

They talk about that a bit. Their projections are based off BaseRuns rather than WAR. BaseRuns has a different calculation, and doesn't treat all runs equally. They use the example that a team that outscores its opponents by 50 runs will have different win percentages if they score 650 and allow 600, versus scoring 850 and allowing 800.

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

15 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I don't know if I care enough to try and find out on my own, but I am curious on the discrepancy behind the simple math of adding all the individual WAR numbers and what eventually got spit out here. I know you have to reduce playing time across the board, but not totally sure why it seemed to hit the Cubs the hardest. Fairly certain I had the Cubs ahead of the Mets, Phillies, and DBacks in pure cumulative math, all of which are now projected to have more wins than the Cubs, and I had us like 10 wins ahead of the Brewers, and that gap is now down to 3. 

If you're talking about why adding up depth chart values doesn't add up similarly, I believe it's because the projected standings are still at least partially using Steamer, which is nearly as low on the Cubs as ZiPS is high.

[chibears55]

3 hours ago, Bobson Dugnutt said:

no way I’m surprised no one’s talking about this possibility

Lisa just mentioned it, so it officially official now...lol

https://x.com/Lisa_L_Dubbs/status/1887265192054300832?s=19

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

No, Pecota still over 90. Fangraphs has them at 84. 

You're correct.  My bad.

[Jason Ross]

14 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Lisa just mentioned it, so it officially official now...lol

https://x.com/Lisa_L_Dubbs/status/1887265192054300832?s=19

She's probably nothing but she did have some post about Bellinger signing last year. So maybe she's on it again. 

[Stratos]

What's the latest from KatyPerrysBootyHole?

[Stratos]

13 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

She's probably nothing but she did have some post about Bellinger signing last year. So maybe she's on it again. 

Yeah she got Bellinger before everyone.  She might know somebod.y.  Boras clients too

[Derwood]

This is my annual "have projections ever been right about anything?" post

Please proceed

[Brian707]

18 minutes ago, Derwood said:

This is my annual "have projections ever been right about anything?" post

Please proceed

Vegas says 85.5. That seems about right 

[chibears55]

Not sure if this was posted..

“Sources have confirmed that the Cubs have offered Alex Bregman a four-year contract, with opt-outs, worth north of $100 million,” Jacob Zanolla of Cubs Insider reported.

The news of the offer came shortly after Astros general manager Dana Brown shared some harsh comments about the likelihood of Bregman returning to the team as his free agency wears on.

"During his address at the team's annual media luncheon, Dana Brown twice spoke about Alex Bregman in the past tense, saying once that the team ‘lost Bregman,'" according to The Athletic's Chandler Rome.

Edited February 6, 2025 by chibears55

[TarzanJoeWallis]

18 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Not sure if this was posted..

“Sources have confirmed that the Cubs have offered Alex Bregman a four-year contract, with opt-outs, worth north of $100 million,” Jacob Zanolla of Cubs Insider reported.

The news of the offer came shortly after Astros general manager Dana Brown shared some harsh comments about the likelihood of Bregman returning to the team as his free agency wears on.

"During his address at the team's annual media luncheon, Dana Brown twice spoke about Alex Bregman in the past tense, saying once that the team ‘lost Bregman,'" according to The Athletic's Chandler Rome.

You really need to go to other parts of the site. You make good posts, but they are already being talked about for multiple pages. 

[Rcal10]

45 minutes ago, TarzanJoeWallis said:

You really need to go to other parts of the site. You make good posts, but they are already being talked about for multiple pages. 

Are they good posts? 🤷 

[We Got The Whole 9]

I mean the truth is that this site is full of insiders without media credentials. Breaking news usually gets posted within minutes. Continually coming in and posting days-old topics is frankly hilarious but also annoying.

 

I don't think I've seen him be the first to report a news break yet.

[TarzanJoeWallis]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Are they good posts? 🤷 

I think so. He is usually posting things that got posted in other threads, they are just not timely because he hasn’t seen them being discussed elsewhere. 

[KCCub]