Post Winter Meetings Free Agency thread

[Crusader]

So ... Now that the Cubs traded for Tucker, who plays 3B until Shaw is ready, and when do we think Shaw will be ready? 

Also, with the extra spot open on the 40 man from the Tucker trade, Cubs made the Carson Kelly signing official. 

Edited December 14, 2024 by Crusader

[Petrey10]

Well I think right at this moment Belli plays 1st and Busch plays 3rd 

 

 

but likely Belli is moved very soon

[Rex Buckingham]

I'm not great with GIFs, so just imagine that says "Michael Busch playing somewhere that isn't 1B" instead of fetch. 

[Crusader]

Michael Busch at 3b seems less than desirable

[Tim]

3 hours ago, Crusader said:

when do we think Shaw will be ready? 

Opening Day

[Tank]

I fully believe the FO believes Shaw will be the third baseman on opening day. 

[Jason Ross]

 

I wouldn't call this a definitive answer, but I think its at least worth sharing. I know there has been some discourse on his defensive ability, and at the least, this is an outside-the-organization opinion from two people who recently watched him play the position.

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

 

Yeah, feels like the team is going to add someone, but that the someone is going to be more of a "speedbump" than a "roadblock" (someone who would be so good they lock down the job without a competition) for Shaw in that, I think they will bring someone else in that has a floor (I think Josh Rojas makes a lot of sense, especially with the glove) to soften his landing on the MLB roster, but that the team is going to give him the opportunity to take the job and run with it. 

[Rcal10]

I think we are looking at either Rojas or Moncada. With the team hoping Shaw wins the job and that FA is bench strength. Assuming Bellinger is gone that would give them FA, Canario, Kelly and either Cowles, another FA or Detroit rule 5 pick up on the bench. Can any play 1st to cover for Busch at times? And who is the right handed bat to give Busch a day or rep off against a tough lefty. If it is Moncada, I guess he can play 1st and he does switch hit, so he would be the righty replacement. But if it is Rojas the Cubs might need to sign a righty bat too. Wisdom? 🤷

Edited December 14, 2024 by Rcal10

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I think we are looking at either Rojas or Moncada. With the team hoping Shaw wins the job and that FA is bench strength. Assuming Bellinger is gone that would give them FA, Canario, Kelly and either Cowles, another FA or Detroit rule 5 pick up on the bench. Can any play 1st to cover for Busch at times? And who is the right handed bat to give Busch a day or rep off against a tough lefty. If it is Moncada, I guess he can play 1st and he does switch hit, so he would be the righty replacement. But if it is Rojas the Cubs might need to sign a righty bat too. Wisdom? 🤷

In a weird way, the Cubs probably don't need  a Patrick Wisdom type after the Tucker trade as Kyle Tucker hits LHP really well. Since 2021, he's the 23rd best hitter against LHP in all of baseball, with a 136 wRC+. He's more than capable of taking some games at 1b (and I suspect he'll moonlight a bit in CF, too). It isn't that the Cubs couldn't use some more RHH's, only that they have a bunch of options as to how they handle a bench spot with Tucker in tow. His versatility and splits against both handed pitchers allows the Cubs a pretty wide birth as to how they tackle the bench.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

13 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Yeah, feels like the team is going to add someone, but that the someone is going to be more of a "speedbump" than a "roadblock" (someone who would be so good they lock down the job without a competition) for Shaw in that, I think they will bring someone else in that has a floor (I think Josh Rojas makes a lot of sense, especially with the glove) to soften his landing on the MLB roster, but that the team is going to give him the opportunity to take the job and run with it. 

I think how they view Workman is a sneaky factor in this.  Maybe he’s simply a flyer since they like the profile and there’s little consideration in building the roster.  But they haven’t made many Rule 5 picks, and doing so after the Tucker rumors began feels a little intentional.  If they think he’s a 90-95 wRC+, especially if shielded from LHP, maybe they think they have Rojas at home?
 

If so, then it may make sense to go after a Wisdom type, a RHH with higher offensive floor but more defensive questions.  Donovan Solano is the FA name that jumps off the page, and Jorge Polanco isn’t RHH but may serve a similar purpose if you think either can play 3B at least part time.

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I think how they view Workman is a sneaky factor in this.  Maybe he’s simply a flyer since they like the profile and there’s little consideration in building the roster.  But they haven’t made many Rule 5 picks, and doing so after the Tucker rumors began feels a little intentional.  If they think he’s a 90-95 wRC+, especially if shielded from LHP, maybe they think they have Rojas at home?
 

If so, then it may make sense to go after a Wisdom type, a RHH with higher offensive floor but more defensive questions.  Donovan Solano is the FA name that jumps off the page, and Jorge Polanco isn’t RHH but may serve a similar purpose if you think either can play 3B at least part time.

Yeah, the Workman thing was interesting as a signal from the start. With that said, going in with a Shaw/Workman pair at 3b feels...worrisome? And I say this as Captain of the USS Matt Shaw, Workman's glove is really good but damn, that feels like you're really banking a lot into a rookie at 3b and a guy who's never taken a PA above Double-A (and was a bit of an over-ager at that level as is). 

With that said, I do like Donovan Solano. I used him as my bench position in my mock offseason and think he's a fun guy. With that said, I'd be shocked if the Cubs went Polanco - they value defense too highly for me to think they'd go back to someone who could be a disaster at the corner. Maybe they'd surprise me there, but they've made defense a hallmark of almost all of their acquisitions. Why I think they'll go with someone who has a soft-floor with their glove (like as you said, Workman. They could love the glove so much they don't care about the bat so much).

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just now, 1908_Cubs said:

Yeah, the Workman thing was interesting as a signal from the start. With that said, going in with a Shaw/Workman pair at 3b feels...worrisome? And I say this as Captain of the USS Matt Shaw, Workman's glove is really good but damn, that feels like you're really banking a lot into a rookie at 3b and a guy who's never taken a PA above Double-A (and was a bit of an over-ager at that level as is). 

With that said, I do like Donovan Solano. I used him as my bench position in my mock offseason and think he's a fun guy. With that said, I'd be shocked if the Cubs went Polanco - they value defense too highly for me to think they'd go back to someone who could be a disaster at the corner. Maybe they'd surprise me there, but they've made defense a hallmark of almost all of their acquisitions. Why I think they'll go with someone who has a soft-floor with their glove (like as you said, Workman. They could love the glove so much they don't care about the bat so much).

I think the idea would be that across a trio of Workman, a Wisdom type, and Shaw, that you get there in the aggregate.  Pre-Shaw callup you have a platoon with Workman getting shielded from tough RHP and serving as late innings defensive replacement.  Post Shaw Workman still has utility as a LHH IF with all the other non-1B bring RHH.  And then the Wisdom profile provides platoon cover for Busch and maybe even PCA if they think Tucker can play a little CF.

[Rcal10]

I think Solano would be the guy I would like to see then Cubs sign. The next option for me would be Moncada. If they go with a bench of either FA, Canario, Kelly and Workman to cover all positions and have a righty bat to cover 1st. I like the idea of Tucker filling in at 1st a bit as well. But when they do that Canario can get in a game. I think Shaw will win the job at 3rd. I also think he will be fine. But they do have to have a back up plan. 

Edited December 14, 2024 by Rcal10

[chibears55]

5 hours ago, Tank said:

I fully believe the FO believes Shaw will be the third baseman on opening day. 

I believed he could play 3B too when I was saying they should trade Paredes and everyone said I was crazy 😅

[Jason Ross]

29 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I think the idea would be that across a trio of Workman, a Wisdom type, and Shaw, that you get there in the aggregate.  Pre-Shaw callup you have a platoon with Workman getting shielded from tough RHP and serving as late innings defensive replacement.  Post Shaw Workman still has utility as a LHH IF with all the other non-1B bring RHH.  And then the Wisdom profile provides platoon cover for Busch and maybe even PCA if they think Tucker can play a little CF.

Wasn't thinking of it entirely that way but yeah, that makes a lot of sense taking a step back and re-analyzing jt.

[TarzanJoeWallis]

48 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I think Solano would be the guy I would like to see then Cubs sign. The next option for me would be Moncada. If they go with a bench of either FA, Canario, Kelly and Workman to cover all positions and have a righty bat to cover 1st. I like the idea of Tucker filling in at 1st a bit as well. But when they do that Canario can get in a game. I think Shaw will win the job at 3rd. I also think he will be fine. But they do have to have a back up plan. 

I like Solano too. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

The Brewers weren't afraid to hand the keys to a rookie(s) and let him take his lumps and they ran away with the division. There's enough cover in the lineup to throw Shaw to the sharks.

 

Similarly they're not afraid to put rookies on the bench either. It's up to Counsell and staff to put them in advantageous spots and develop their games. 

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

The Brewers weren't afraid to hand the keys to a rookie(s) and let him take his lumps and they ran away with the division. There's enough cover in the lineup to throw Shaw to the sharks.

 

Similarly they're not afraid to put rookies on the bench either. It's up to Counsell and staff to put them in advantageous spots and develop their games. 

Yeah kind of like how gathering depth on the pitching staff lets you take some bigger swings on risk/reward, I think on offense having a lineup anchor like Tucker does similar.

Scouts love Shaw, the data loves Shaw (already projects as a first division starter), make sure you get a good hedge for the bench but otherwise let it rip.

[squally1313]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I think the idea would be that across a trio of Workman, a Wisdom type, and Shaw, that you get there in the aggregate.  Pre-Shaw callup you have a platoon with Workman getting shielded from tough RHP and serving as late innings defensive replacement.  Post Shaw Workman still has utility as a LHH IF with all the other non-1B bring RHH.  And then the Wisdom profile provides platoon cover for Busch and maybe even PCA if they think Tucker can play a little CF.

Is there anything to suggest workman would have a better April in the pros than Shaw would? Or is this more about wanting shaw to check all the boxes on his way up before giving him the spot? Because if that’s the case, I still lean towards Shaw skipping his AAA graduation ceremony and jumping in the deep end. He’s done more at AAA than PCA ever did, and yeah, it was a rough 6-8 weeks for PCA but he came out of it alright and if our alternate third base plan doesn’t involve league average production anyways…might as well run with Shaw and give yourself the chance that he’s a unicorn?

[BKHoo]

Time for this “amazing” farm system to show out. Shaw you are up. 

[JBears79]

I firmly believe if Shaw shows up in ST he makes the team opening day. Counsell has a track record of letting the young guys play and take their beatings. He did with Busch and PCA this year and he was known for it in Milwaukee too. Thats one of the reasons we are paying him so much. I expect Shaw will get the same considerations to work through his issues in the MLB. 

Some combo of Rojas, Moncada and Workman (if he stays) seems like a good bench counterpart for him to shield him from tough matchups.

[NorthsideAvenger]

Could either Kim (the former Padres player or the INF that Korea posted this offseason) be an option for the Cubs?

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

Is there anything to suggest workman would have a better April in the pros than Shaw would? Or is this more about wanting shaw to check all the boxes on his way up before giving him the spot? Because if that’s the case, I still lean towards Shaw skipping his AAA graduation ceremony and jumping in the deep end. He’s done more at AAA than PCA ever did, and yeah, it was a rough 6-8 weeks for PCA but he came out of it alright and if our alternate third base plan doesn’t involve league average production anyways…might as well run with Shaw and give yourself the chance that he’s a unicorn?

I doubt it. Workman posted a 140 in wRC+ in Double-A last year, which was about the same as Shaw's 148 he posted in Double-A, but the former's feels far less...exciting. He was a few years older, on his second go-around and struck out 10% more. Shaw then went on to post impressive numbers in Triple-A. 

I think the best answer is: Matt Shaw should be given the rope to go take the position.