Cubs sign Matt Boyd (2/29)

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Cuzi said:

And then you have no bench.

For bench they already have 4 OF.  If they want a 5th they can use Canario or invite some guys on minor league ST invite contracts. 

Middle INF bench they have Mastrob plus Cowles and Vazquez. I think the only MLB guy they might go after is a RH corner bat to replace Wisdom, but that guy could also be a minor league ST invite.

[Cuzi]

Just now, Stratos said:

For bench they already have 4 OF.  If they want a 5th they can use Canario or invite some guys on minor league ST invite contracts. 

Middle INF bench they have Mastrob plus Cowles and Vazquez. I think the only MLB guy they might go after is a RH corner bat to replace Wisdom, but that guy could also be a minor league ST invite.

They have 3 OFers, my guy. Suzuki is your starting DH as it stands. He is not on the bench.

[Bull]

2 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I really love Shaw and Caissie but neither should be relied upon Day 1 for a team who's in the state the Cubs are - just good enough that you can believe they can win the division but with plenty of negative variance opportunities to knock them back into the 80 win marker. Two prospects add to the variance and create even more potential negative outcomes. 

I think both players have futures that could be that of MLB starters or better. But with struggles likely, the Cubs need to aim higher and rely on them later in the year when injury strikes...not create whole sale openings for them as they finger cross their way through May hoping that it's just not so bad it sinks the Cubs into a pretty treacherous hole. 

They have nothing left to prove in the minors and I don't want them on the bench. If one falls short, send them down to learn their lessons and you still have Busch in the fold.

Sending a prospect down to iron out some things is pretty common. You have to let them play at some point. And Busch just does not instill confidence in me. Not enough to block the future.

 

The Cubs top 6 prospects have an ETA on the MLB official site. While I know it is not an official outlet for pressers, it does send a message: the kids are coming. Like it or not, they are either setting the stage to play them or trade them. If Caissie needs to go down, Alcantara is on his heels. Wait till you hear about Ballesteros!

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, Bertz said:

The team is ~$40M under the cap right now.  Let's assume for the sake of being conservative the plan is to only spend $30M more this offseason to leave deadline money and wiggle room for injuries/bonuses.

If you're paying retail in FA, the remaining items on the to do list cost:

Backup Catcher - $6-8M

Backup IF - $4-5M

RHH Bat - $5M

Closer - $10-12M

So that's that $30M right there without even considering a second SP.  So one of the following must be true:

- The team is planning to address one or more items in trade to provide $ relief

- The team is planning to skimp on or maybe even forego one or two of these items

- There is more money available than we think, whether because a Bellinger trade is coming down the pipe or simply because payroll is actually north of the LT

Gun to my head, they add a SP in arb making something in the $5-10M range, and then skimp on one of those lower cost items.  For example add Jesus Luzardo at $6M and go internally with Canario as your lefty masher.

That feels about right where I am at on what the next little bit entails. 

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, gocubs218 said:

Boyd’s salary for 2025 is 7.5 million, FYI.

 

Why do they give players a big signing bonus? What is the purpose?  Do they get that money up front?

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Bull said:

They have nothing left to prove in the minors and I don't want them on the bench. If one falls short, send them down to learn their lessons and you still have Busch in the fold.

Sending a prospect down to iron out some things is pretty common. You have to let them play at some point. And Busch just does not instill confidence in me. Not enough to block the future.

 

The Cubs top 6 prospects have an ETA on the MLB official site. While I know it is not an official outlet for pressers, it does send a message: the kids are coming. Like it or not, they are either setting the stage to play them or trade them. If Caissie needs to go down, Alcantara is on his heels. Wait till you hear about Ballesteros!

I'm not sure where people get this idea that someone has nothing left to prove, because I can find 5-10 things both of those prospects have yet to prove at Triple-A without blinking. Matt Shaw has 35 games in Iowa, or a little over a month of time. He's struggled against sweepers, doesn't pull the ball enough, and chases too often to be super comfortable with. He needs to show that he can elevate the ball more often with two strikes when he lessens the leg kick and he needs to show more definitive what his defensive future at 2b is. Owen Caissie needs to show improved game power (which he did in the 2nd half) coupled with the improved contact% he did in the first half. He needs to continue to show growth in RF defensively, needs to show that his approach isn't too passive. And he needs to continue to show that the LA and pull improvements can continue. 

I really like both. I'm about to write articles on both of them, and both will be very glowing. But look at the MiLB landscape right now. The very best prospects in the world have struggled to make impacts at the MLB level for partial seasons or longer. Jackson Chourio, Jackson Holliday, James Wood, Dylan Crews, Wyatt Landford....these are just some of the names of prospects who were universally considered to be better prospects who have taken considerable time to come around, if they have yet. Other than Shaw and Caissie being Cubs and these players not, what exactly would make us think that they won't have these struggles? 

You can let them play at one point, but the point shouldn't be the arbitrary point of "Opening Day" because "I want to see them". Better, make them absolutely, entirely, and definitively force the issue. An injury will occur and I guarantee both will come up in 2025. Make them force it. When teams force it, you get negative variance for extended periods, when the Cubs don't have a ton in the tank to absorb that variance. 

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Piecing together some things I wonder if you start to see a 'Dodgers-ification' of the pitching staff as a whole.  Previously Jed tended to value length, but with a rotation that already has several guys with that quality and several younger arms who you aren't going to plug and play for 200 IP, plus a manager who you can trust to manage it, maybe they just try and get a bunch of guys who can be really good for 80-120 innings.  This may also be part of the continued rumblings about Pearson starting, or possible interest in doing the Lopez/Hicks conversion with someone like Jeff Hoffman.

Yeah maybe 4-5 innings and piggy back a few innings with the young SP in the pen.  The young guys aren't going to give 170 IP either.

2/29 for an injury guy with little success track record who isn't going to throw a ton of innings still seems like an overpay.

[Bertz]

6 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Why do they give players a big signing bonus? What is the purpose?  Do they get that money up front?

That's exactly what it is.  And then mutual options/buyouts work the same in the opposite direction to let teams get the benefit of a little TVM before paying out.

[Bull]

1 minute ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I'm not sure where people get this idea that someone has nothing left to prove, because I can find 5-10 things both of those prospects have yet to prove at Triple-A without blinking. Matt Shaw has 35 games in Iowa, or a little over a month of time. He's struggled against sweepers, doesn't pull the ball enough, and chases too often to be super comfortable with. He needs to show that he can elevate the ball more often with two strikes when he lessens the leg kick and he needs to show more definitive what his defensive future at 2b is. Owen Caissie needs to show improved game power (which he did in the 2nd half) coupled with the improved contact% he did in the first half. He needs to continue to show growth in RF defensively, needs to show that his approach isn't too passive. And he needs to continue to show that the LA and pull improvements can continue. 

I really like both. I'm about to write articles on both of them, and both will be very glowing. But look at the MiLB landscape right now. The very best prospects in the world have struggled to make impacts at the MLB level for partial seasons or longer. Jackson Chourio, Jackson Holliday, James Wood, Dylan Crews, Wyatt Landford....these are just some of the names of prospects who were universally considered to be better prospects who have taken considerable time to come around, if they have yet. Other than Shaw and Caissie being Cubs and these players not, what exactly would make us think that they won't have these struggles? 

You can let them play at one point, but the point shouldn't be the arbitrary point of "Opening Day" because "I want to see them". Better, make them absolutely, entirely, and definitively force the issue. An injury will occur and I guarantee both will come up in 2025. Make them force it. When teams force it, you get negative variance for extended periods, when the Cubs don't have a ton in the tank to absorb that variance. 

Good and true. But its not so much that "I want to see them". Its more the limited budget makes improving the pitching AND offense hard to do. With those prospects in the wings I think its more palatable to improve the pitching at the EXPENSE OF the offense.

I think the Boyd signing makes it more likely.

And... way down the list ... I think they'd be fun to watch.

They may not be on the opening day roster, but if they aren't the bench will be so weak as to allow for their mid-season call up. This is more likely, but ewww. That's what prompted my initial post: someone pointing out a VERY weak bench.

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

In an effort to put a positive spin on this move, maybe this will be the 2024 version of the Lugo signing of 23’. He wasn’t the most sought after pitcher in his mid 30’s, and he signed a 2 year deal for $30M. I am certain many considered the Royals out of their minds for that signing. But it worked out. Same with Manaea and even Severino last year. It isn’t always the top pitchers who prove to  be the best signings. I actually like Boyd a bit. Just not at this dollar amount and not as the only move. 

I'm getting 2018 Tyler Chatwood/Brandon Morrow vibes. Lol.  Trying to be too cute for their own good.

Geez Richie Rich Ricketts just spend 10m over the tax so we can get some quality FFS.  Matthew Boyd???  So tired of this org.

[Jason Ross]

12 minutes ago, Bull said:

Good and true. But its not so much that "I want to see them". Its more the limited budget makes improving the pitching AND offense hard to do. With those prospects in the wings I think its more palatable to improve the pitching at the EXPENSE OF the offense.

I think the Boyd signing makes it more likely.

And... way down the list ... I think they'd be fun to watch.

They may not be on the opening day roster, but if they aren't the bench will be so weak as to allow for their mid-season call up. This is more likely, but ewww. That's what prompted my initial post: someone pointing out a VERY weak bench.

Fair. But the Cubs already have a 4 win 2b and a 3 win OF'er in front of those guys. It's unlikely that a team is going to trade for Hoerner on full value right now and Bellinger certainly not. With a limited budget the Cubs can still:

1. Acquire another good SP

2. Sign 1-2 BP arms

3. Get a backup catcher. 

It's more likely that the best version of the 2025 Chicago Cubs uses Hoerner and Bellinger and then goes from there. The kinds of trades we want to make with those two probably just won't happen. I like Shaw and Caissie too! Probably as much as anyone. I just think they have some work to continue to do and there's no rush to make them the guy.

[We Got The Whole 9]

4 minutes ago, Bull said:

Good and true. But its not so much that "I want to see them". Its more the limited budget makes improving the pitching AND offense hard to do. With those prospects in the wings I think its more palatable to improve the pitching at the EXPENSE OF the offense.

I think the Boyd signing makes it more likely.

And... way down the list ... I think they'd be fun to watch.

They may not be on the opening day roster, but if they aren't the bench will be so weak as to allow for their mid-season call up. This is more likely, but ewww. That's what prompted my initial post: someone pointing out a VERY weak bench.

The Brewers bench was basically internal fodder and Gary Sanchez who they paid 7M for. They trusted their own guys and their system to squeeze what they could out of them. With our current state financially and organizationally it makes no sense at all to me to spend on the bench. You're basically hoping a bench bat can give you an 80-90 wRC+ and be versatile in the field. I'll suffer a couple months of Vazquez (who can comfortably play all IF spots), Canario, and Mastro/whomever if it means getting a more important/significant upgrade elsewhere. 

 

 

 

 

[jersey cubs fan]

Seems like a lot of ink spilled over a guy I never heard of. Not sure how much that says for my growing disinterest in the sport or for this guys lackluster career. 

[Cuzi]

10 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Fair. But the Cubs already have a 4 win 2b and a 3 win OF'er in front of those guys. It's unlikely that a team is going to trade for Hoerner on full value right now and Bellinger certainly not. With a limited budget the Cubs can still:

1. Acquire another good SP

2. Sign 1-2 BP arms

3. Get a backup catcher. 

It's more likely that the best version of the 2025 Chicago Cubs uses Hoerner and Bellinger and then goes from there. The kinds of trades we want to make with those two probably just won't happen. I like Shaw and Caissie too! Probably as much as anyone. I just think they have some work to continue to do and there's no rush to make them the guy.

Marlins are the trade target, imo. I've been bringing up Nardi since the deadline last year. They've got 3 potential SP's to trade for to go with him in Alcantara, Cabrera, and Luzardo. I really dont want to target another lefty like Luzardo to stick in the rotation, so I would prefer Alcantara or Cabrera, with Cabrera being the more likely to be available, though Alcantara's actual money owed balloons up to $17M this year and for a team like the Marlins that could be an issue.

So trade for Alcantara/Cabrera + Nardi, sign Grichuk as the bench bat, roll with whatever infield fodder you want, and sign a catcher or trade for someone like Fermin from the Royals.

Still not in love with the overall team and wouldn't consider them favorites for anything. but that's about best case from my viewpoint.

Edited December 2, 2024 by Cuzi

[Rcal10]

17 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

The Brewers bench was basically internal fodder and Gary Sanchez who they paid 7M for. They trusted their own guys and their system to squeeze what they could out of them. With our current state financially and organizationally it makes no sense at all to me to spend on the bench. You're basically hoping a bench bat can give you an 80-90 wRC+ and be versatile in the field. I'll suffer a couple months of Vazquez (who can comfortably play all IF spots), Canario, and Mastro/whomever if it means getting a more important/significant upgrade elsewhere. 

 

 

 

 

I don’t think they are going to reconstruct the bench. But one decent right handed bat wouldn’t hurt. What would Grichek cost. Him, a back up catcher Canario and a utility infielder would be it. I don’t expect them to spend much. I can see them adding one pen arm, a staring pitcher via trade, a catcher and let’s say Grichek. If the staring pitcher is young with control left his salary isn’t going to be so bad. Between minor league assets and money they should be able to do all of this. 

[LBiittner]

Wouldn't Sagano have been a better signing? He had a dominant 2024 and pitched close to 160 innings. 

At 35 he's a year older than oil can Boyd 

Plus another brother for Sasaki to hang with

Edited December 2, 2024 by LBiittner

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Wouldn't Sagano have been a better signing? He had a dominant 2024 and pitched close to 160 innings. 

At 35 he's a year older than oil can Boyd 

Depends on the upside you project Sugano. He was great the NPB but there's questions over whether or not that will translate to the Western game. Japanese pitchers sometimes experience innings limits themselves and it wouldn't be very crazy at all to be more in on the upside of Boyd even at 90-110 innings over Sugano at 125-135 innings. 

[LBiittner]

Just now, 1908_Cubs said:

Depends on the upside you project Sugano. He was great the NPB but there's questions over whether or not that will translate to the Western game. Japanese pitchers sometimes experience innings limits themselves and it wouldn't be very crazy at all to be more in on the upside of Boyd even at 90-110 innings over Sugano at 125-135 innings. 

I guess we had same concerns for shota imanaga too.

If jed were to sign Sasaki, it's speculated the need for pitching in a quasi 6 man rotation. So Boyd's 90 innings might be juuust optimal

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Wouldn't Sagano have been a better signing? He had a dominant 2024 and pitched close to 160 innings. 

At 35 he's a year older than oil can Boyd 

Plus another brother for Sasaki to hang with

This is a good example of the spectrum of roster building, between quality and quantity of pitching innings.  In a perfect world, you add players who give you both, but they are very expensive and if they get hurt like pitchers do, you're in significant trouble.  

You also can't go too far in either direction.  If you get 6 SP who you expect to be excellent for 100 innings, you will have a lot of innings funneled to your bullpen, and managing the staff in October gets dicey.  If you have 5 innings eaters who go 6 innings but have mediocre results, you'll either miss the playoffs or get beaten up by good offenses in that crucible.

What Boyd appears to represent is a bet on his production over his durability.  He's probably not going to exceed 5 innings much, and he may not make even 25 starts.  But the plan is he's going to leave those starts in a much better place than if we had gotten Durable Joe The Innings Eater to get more outs but also give up more runs per inning.  On a roster that already has several guys who you can expect to eat innings on a per start basis(Steele, Shota, Taillon), and a group of talented young pitchers who aren't ready for a full starter's workload(Brown, Horton, maybe Pearson, Assad), Boyd adds quality of innings that can combine with those other talented pitchers with durability concerns.  And you pay Counsell record money to manage that balance to ensure you don't ask the bullpen to throw 30 innings a week.

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

I guess we had same concerns for shota imanaga too.

If jed were to sign Sasaki, it's speculated the need for pitching in a quasi 6 man rotation. So Boyd's 90 innings might be juuust optimal

Perhaps. But Imanaga also had stuff+ data behind him that suggested there was a really good pitcher there (he was grading out better than Ohtani at the WBC) and that what he needed was a pitch mentality change to use his super funky fastball in a better and more Western way. Sugano doesn't have that behind him. You'd have to be really into your own models on him. 

[Tryptamine]

Yeah Sugano had something absurd like a 5.5K/9 in Japan, there is no way that's going to work in MLB.

[Rob]

15 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Wouldn't Sagano have been a better signing? He had a dominant 2024 and pitched close to 160 innings. 

At 35 he's a year older than oil can Boyd 

Others have touched on this, but I'm less than sold on Sugano. Maybe he pulls it together like peak Kyle Hendricks or Miles Mikolas. But I think it's more likely than not that he struggles mightily stateside.

[thawv]

4 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

If they sign Flaherty as well they're going to have almost nothing to address the bullpen and bench.

I feel like the pen is pretty much set with the back 4 guys.  The bench could be Nico/Paredes, Canario, Vasquez, and Thaiss.  I have Shaw as an every day player now.   If they move Nico or Paredes, Cowles can be on the bench.  I personally don't see the bench or the pen being an issue at all.  

Right now, they have about 47.5 million to spend from now until the end of next season according to Cot's.  If we hold back 10 million for injuries and deadline moves, we still have 37 million.  Flaherty should be about 22 million, leaving more than enough money for whatever needs you are referring to.

[WhyCantWeWin]

A lot of flak around here about small sample sizes and here Hoyer gives an ol boy 30 mil based on 40 innings. 

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, thawv said:

I feel like the pen is pretty much set with the back 4 guys.  The bench could be Nico/Paredes, Canario, Vasquez, and Thaiss.  I have Shaw as an every day player now.   If they move Nico or Paredes, Cowles can be on the bench.  I personally don't see the bench or the pen being an issue at all.  

Right now, they have about 47.5 million to spend from now until the end of next season according to Cot's.  If we hold back 10 million for injuries and deadline moves, we still have 37 million.  Flaherty should be about 22 million, leaving more than enough money for whatever needs you are referring to.

Shaw is not going to be an everyday player this year. He is especially not going to be that guy if they have Nico and Parades on the roster. And right now they can’t get enough for either of those guys in a trade. Shaw may start the season for Nico. And if he hits maybe he sticks and plays 3 to 4 games a week. But him starting over either Nico or Parades.does not make the Cubs better next year. If Shaw proves he can hit early and then the Cubs can get proper value for either Parades or Hoerner in a deal, maybe at that time Shaw takes over. And because the Cubs get proper value for Nico or Parades, they are better with Shaw+.