Trader Jed makes a move (trade for RP Eli Morgan)

[Transmogrified Tiger]

7 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Yeah, this is a solid pick up for the pen, but Morgan cannot be the best arm they add. There needs to be one high leverage or closer type brought in as well. If they went out and snagged Robertson tomorrow, I'd be 100% cool with riding that bullpen into spring training.

I've been kicking around the idea that they're likely to add 4 pitchers, and whether they add 1 SP or 2 impacts how they'd shop for RP.  Morgan being a super cheap and optionable RP keeps a lot of flexibility open.  

The one part that does seem a little out of place is the lack of a LHRP though.  Little should be around and I'm sure there's some fringe guys they can add to the pile(Zastryzny, maybe Riley Martin by midseason), but it feels like a conscious decision/design flaw considering the only real way for the 'big RP' to be LH is if they sign Scott(unlikely, imo)

[Bertz]

Just now, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I've been kicking around the idea that they're likely to add 4 pitchers, and whether they add 1 SP or 2 impacts how they'd shop for RP.  Morgan being a super cheap and optionable RP keeps a lot of flexibility open.  

The one part that does seem a little out of place is the lack of a LHRP though.  Little should be around and I'm sure there's some fringe guys they can add to the pile(Zastryzny, maybe Riley Martin by midseason), but it feels like a conscious decision/design flaw considering the only real way for the 'big RP' to be LH is if they sign Scott(unlikely, imo)

I don't want to get too caught up on half a season of L/R splits, but Hodge's peripherals were stronger against lefties than righties.  And with his cutter I think there's repertoire reasons to think it doesn't have to be a fluke.  

I wonder if the plan is to bring in a veteran closer, and then Hodge functions as the "lefty" setup man while Pearson is the righty?

I could also see if the big SP add is a lefty the thought being that you very much want a pen loaded with righties.

[Outshined_One]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Just spitballing, but Cleveland has a type and someone like Alfonsin Rosario would fit that type. 

I liked Rosario as a lottery ticket type prospect, but he's years away from the majors and has major flameout potential.  It sucks, but this is what we expected Jed to do to improve the team in the offseason, and it's a good move.

[JBears79]

Liked Rosario but dont mind giving him up here. Has way too much risk and the K rate annoyed me. Good move

[JBears79]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Just spitballing, but Cleveland has a type and someone like Alfonsin Rosario would fit that type. 

Cubs nostrodomas

[Transmogrified Tiger]

10 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I don't want to get too caught up on half a season of L/R splits, but Hodge's peripherals were stronger against lefties than righties.  And with his cutter I think there's repertoire reasons to think it doesn't have to be a fluke.  

I wonder if the plan is to bring in a veteran closer, and then Hodge functions as the "lefty" setup man while Pearson is the righty?

I could also see if the big SP add is a lefty the thought being that you very much want a pen loaded with righties.

Jed has also not been afraid of having an RHP be his LHH matchup guy, and like was mentioned Morgan doesn't have strong splits so with the 3 batter minimum it's less crucial than it used to be even if it's suboptimal to have one LHRP and it being the 6th best pitcher in the group.

[Post Count Padder]

I've low-key loved Morgan the past few years. His peripherals were great and then last year was a weird year with him also battling an injury but at his best he's a solid back end of the pen option who won't strike out a ton of guys but like it's been said, has gotten better at limited hard contact. 

I don't LOVE giving up Rosario but we're well stocked with OF prospects and he's still several years away. 

[jersey cubs fan]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Just spitballing, but Cleveland has a type and someone like Alfonsin Rosario would fit that type. 

[Post Count Padder]

Also the domino effect here is we've seen the last of Daily Wisdom. He's a good dude with real power. Hoping he lands somewhere where he can still rake a little.

[Tryptamine]

Ah yes, this is how you know the offseason has truly begun. People overhyping the living hell out of a solid prospect to justify a trade

[Bertz]

I wonder if getting Morgan in the door and doing so for barely north of league minimum makes Jed more likely to just pay retail for a closer.

No one in the pen is slated to make more than $1.5M.  Even if you spent $12-15M on a free agent closer you'd still be spending only ~$25M on the group collectively?

Similarly, expectations have been $50-55M is availabe to spend this winter.  With Morgan in tow you're still looking at that same $50-55M.  You could pay low 8 figures for a closer and still have ~$40M left for a SP and bench help.  It'd be a bit tight, but only by several million.  The team being willing to exceed the tax, or another trade similar to this one to fill one of the bench spots would get us in the clear.

[CubinNY]

Such a Jed move. Good start, let's keep it going.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

5 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I wonder if getting Morgan in the door and doing so for barely north of league minimum makes Jed more likely to just pay retail for a closer.

No one in the pen is slated to make more than $1.5M.  Even if you spent $12-15M on a free agent closer you'd still be spending only ~$25M on the group collectively?

Similarly, expectations have been $50-55M is availabe to spend this winter.  With Morgan in tow you're still looking at that same $50-55M.  You could pay low 8 figures for a closer and still have ~$40M left for a SP and bench help.  It'd be a bit tight, but only by several million.  The team being willing to exceed the tax, or another trade similar to this one to fill one of the bench spots would get us in the clear.

I think the years are the differentiator more than the dollars.  e.g. I doubt it was the 2M AAV difference between Stephenson and Neris compared to 2 vs 3 years.

[Bertz]

7 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I think the years are the differentiator more than the dollars.  e.g. I doubt it was the 2M AAV difference between Stephenson and Neris compared to 2 vs 3 years.

Yeah that definitely impacts the calculus

But like Neris was something like RP12 on last year's FA market.  Does this year having the arms they have as cheap as they have them mean that Jed's willing to shop in the RP3 - RP5 range?

Or put another way, last winter Jed was clearly shopping for "best reliever I can get on a 1 year deal."  Is that still his target, or will he raise his sights to "best reliever I can get without needing a 3+ year deal"?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Yeah that definitely impacts the calculus

But like Neris was something like RP12 on last year's FA market.  Does this year having the arms they have as cheap as they have them mean that Jed's willing to shop in the RP3 - RP5 range?

Or put another way, last winter Jed was clearly shopping for "best reliever I can get on a 1 year deal."  Is that still his target, or will he raise his sights to "best reliever I can get without needing a 3+ year deal"?

These are thin margins, but contract crowdsourcing seems to indicate there's not a huge line there with this group, which I think is probably mostly true given their track records and ages: 

Maybe Estevez or Holmes gets a 3rd year?

[Post Count Padder]

Just gonna leave this here.

 

[Stratos]

On 11/20/2024 at 1:23 PM, Bertz said:

His peripherals all went the wrong way last year but he became extremely successful at generating soft contact.  Curious how real the latter is.

Also pretty normal L/R splits, which is a bit surprising considering his signature pitch is a bugs bunny changeup.

He's had an elite chase rate the last 2 seasons too.   But below average K's/whiffs, could explain the soft contact.

Threw the change-up the least last year.  .161 xBA on his fastball.

He had a very low .222 BABIP, very high 85% LOB%, and a low 7% HR/FB last year, which all seems pretty unsustainable and not usual for him, so regression is virtually assured which seems obvious given his ERA.  His xFIP last year was 4.46, but Jed doesn't seem to look at xFIP much based on past signings.

We didn't get him for much so who cares I guess.

[Stratos]

On 11/20/2024 at 1:48 PM, LBiittner said:

Whats up bertz ?

Any relation to DJ Herz?

[Stratos]

On 11/20/2024 at 2:22 PM, LBiittner said:

Let's not sleep on palencia / 98mph fastball

Or Nuke Laloosh

[LBiittner]

32 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Any relation to DJ Herz?

Bugs Bunny reply to elmer

[LBiittner]

Jacob Webb looks interesting, late of the guardians