NSBB 2005 Top 50 Prospects

[Tim]

It's finally here!

 

In a first for North Side Baseball, the NSBB writers collaborated together, along with special guest Todd Andrews, to put together a unique Top 50 Cubs Prospect list and chat discussion. You can get to the Top 50 list through the menu on the left of the page or by clicking here.

 

The Chat Transcript that accompanies the list (see the link at the top of that page) is a great read, though a bit difficult to follow at points. The effort is very worthwhile, though, to get some great discussions on our differing opinions on Richard Lewis, the catching prospects (go Fox!) and a lot of other things.

 

Have fun, and as always, your comments are very welcome!

[Chris]

I am going to enjoy reading this. Adding the chat transcript was a great idea! This is just another reason why NSBB is the best! Keep up the great work!

[Outshined_One]

Might as well ask it before some one else does...

 

Where do you think Sisco would rank if he was given back to the Cubs?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Wow, the chat is long. This will be an enjoyable read. :D

[YearofDaCubs]

Very good stuff. Thanks.

[rawaction]

Might as well ask it before some one else does...

 

Where do you think Sisco would rank if he was given back to the Cubs?

 

I still like Sisco a lot (probably can't tell by my posts in the Sisco thread), and at one point, I still had him as the 4th best prospect in the system. After more thought, I probably would have put him between 9-13. Lower than Marshall, but higher Wuertz and Nolasco.

[Tim]

Might as well ask it before some one else does...

 

Where do you think Sisco would rank if he was given back to the Cubs?

Given what he's shown this spring? I'd put him right above Pinto.

 

Where would I have put him last winter? Right below Brownlie. It looked like a similar story to Brownlie, honestly. Andy was just awesome back in 2002, but developed biceps tendonitis at the end of the year. In 2003, he didn't have quite the same stuff, but it was blamed on something else and it was assumed that he'd be full strength the following season. In 2004, he had even less stuff. Performance-wise, he looked okay both years, though not great. But the scouting reports in both cases was very disturbing. He had a loss of velocity that seemed permanent, not to mention less sharpness on the breaking ball. There just seemed to be something lingering and even worsening. In Andy's case, it seems it was just attitude and poor conditioning.

 

Too bad Bobby hasn't had a similar rebound. :(

[Shawon12]

Great stuff.

What are you using as the criteria..how well they will do in the big's?

[rawaction]

Great stuff.

What are you using as the criteria..how well they will do in the big's?

 

That was the interesting part. I think everyone individually did their list with some combination of what they've done so far, what they are capable of doing in the bigs, and what the likelihood is that they'll do it. Most of us put different weights to different criteria, which made the arguing fun.

 

Of course that still doesn't explain Tim's fetish for Jake Fox. :lol:

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

That's awesome. I don't have time to read through the chat right now, but just wow!

 

This site continues to get better and better.

[imb]

Wow, Petrick ahead of Pinto?

[CUBZ99]

I'm a little suprised to see Cedeno so low at 20. Considering factors such as (age, defense, increased offense last year and in spring training). Also, this year he will be in AAA along with Soto, and yet Soto is ranked 8 positions higher? My guess is that the Cubs as an organization have him ranked as one of the top 10 prospects. Is that assumption way off-base?

 

:-k

[Tim]

I'm a little suprised to see Cedeno so low at 20. Considering factors such as (age, defense, increased offense last year and in spring training). Also, this year he will be in AAA along with Soto, and yet Soto is ranked 8 positions higher? My guess is that the Cubs as an organization have him ranked as one of the top 10 prospects. Is that assumption way off-base?

 

:-k

Well, Cedeno and Soto...

 

1) are the same age

2) at the same level

3) both play positions of scarcity

4) both posted much better numbers than they had the past couple years

 

However,

 

4) both project as plus defenders, though Soto is currently much more advanced

5) Soto showed a lot more patience at the plate than Ronny

6) Soto showed the makings of better power than Ronny

 

 

All that said, there isn't a whole lot of separation between the two guys at this point. Cedeno has a higher ceiling and has looked very impressive so far this spring. Soto is closer to ready and is more of a sure thing to reach the majors and stick at some point with his defensive value as a catcher. Which gets rated on top depends on what you value.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Great stuff.

What are you using as the criteria..how well they will do in the big's?

 

That was the interesting part. I think everyone individually did their list with some combination of what they've done so far, what they are capable of doing in the bigs, and what the likelihood is that they'll do it. Most of us put different weights to different criteria, which made the arguing fun.

 

Of course that still doesn't explain Tim's fetish for Jake Fox. :lol:

 

I think reading the chat (I've only gotten to about spot 13 there) shows the differing criteria, from potential to closeness to the big leagues. The debate between Dubois and Petrick was a good read. It's like some guys from various publications - BA, BP, etc. - got together to flesh this out, and it's great to read varying opinions on why each of the players should be where. The chat shows excatly how well thought the prospect list is.

 

It's great to see the love that you and UK gave to Carlos Marmol and I liked how you dubbed Petrick a "poor man's Z."

[abuck1220]

great list...i'll have to look over it more in depth later. but just looking at it real fast...

 

glad you put hill up there...i'd rank him higher, but i like him more than anybody. i know he's old and wild, but his potential is so much higher than, say, leicester (though i realize leicester's done it in mlb, and i wouldn't rank hill higher than him...)...

 

i'm not nearly as big of fan of marmol as most. that's just based on what i've seen of him the two times i've seen him pitch live though.

 

i'd rank brownlie higer than soto purely based on potential. i don't think soto projects as a starting big league catcher, though he may have a better chance of making the bigs than bb. if (and i realize that's a huge if) bb gets his velocity back, his ceiling is pretty high.

 

i don't like ryu as much as most do...i'd rank greenburg, downs, patterson, kelton and coats all ahead of him.

 

i like rick's bat a lot, and if you told me i could only keep one of the catchers out of fox, soto and rick, i'd honestly say i may take rick. the problem is, he's pretty awkward/weird looking behind the plate.

[Tim]

great list...i'll have to look over it more in depth later. but just looking at it real fast...

 

glad you put hill up there...i'd rank him higher, but i like him more than anybody. i know he's old and wild, but his potential is so much higher than, say, leicester (though i realize leicester's done it in mlb, and i wouldn't rank hill higher than him...)...

 

i'm not nearly as big of fan of marmol as most. that's just based on what i've seen of him the two times i've seen him pitch live though.

 

i'd rank brownlie higer than soto purely based on potential. i don't think soto projects as a starting big league catcher, though he may have a better chance of making the bigs than bb. if (and i realize that's a huge if) bb gets his velocity back, his ceiling is pretty high.

 

i don't like ryu as much as most do...i'd rank greenburg, downs, patterson, kelton and coats all ahead of him.

 

i like rick's bat a lot, and if you told me i could only keep one of the catchers out of fox, soto and rick, i'd honestly say i may take rick. the problem is, he's pretty awkward/weird looking behind the plate.

I just don't think there's a chance in heck of Rick staying behind the plate after watching him a few times.

[abuck1220]

great list...i'll have to look over it more in depth later. but just looking at it real fast...

 

glad you put hill up there...i'd rank him higher, but i like him more than anybody. i know he's old and wild, but his potential is so much higher than, say, leicester (though i realize leicester's done it in mlb, and i wouldn't rank hill higher than him...)...

 

i'm not nearly as big of fan of marmol as most. that's just based on what i've seen of him the two times i've seen him pitch live though.

 

i'd rank brownlie higer than soto purely based on potential. i don't think soto projects as a starting big league catcher, though he may have a better chance of making the bigs than bb. if (and i realize that's a huge if) bb gets his velocity back, his ceiling is pretty high.

 

i don't like ryu as much as most do...i'd rank greenburg, downs, patterson, kelton and coats all ahead of him.

 

i like rick's bat a lot, and if you told me i could only keep one of the catchers out of fox, soto and rick, i'd honestly say i may take rick. the problem is, he's pretty awkward/weird looking behind the plate.

I just don't think there's a chance in heck of Rick staying behind the plate after watching him a few times.

 

unfortunately, you're probably right. and i'm basing my opinion just on seeing him do drills at fitch. he looked like he could barely get up to catch pop fouls.

[UK1679666180]

I'm proud of the persistence of me and Raw for Lewis.

[Tim]

I'm proud of the persistence of me and Raw for Lewis.

I'm starting to feel pretty happy about throwing Cedeno's name into the conversation around 14. I'm wishing I had pulled harder for him, though!

 

What a spring the kid has had so far in major league camp and at Iowa.

[TruffleShuffle]

I would bet somebody that E-Patt will be in the top 10 in 2006.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

More love for Connolly, please.

[Tim]

More love for Connolly, please.

When he gets through the PCL as a soft tossing lefty with great results, I'll give him more love. A lot of pitchers with good command and good offspeed stuff can thrive against inexperienced hitters, but get pounded by guys that have been around a while.

[MattyJLCC]

As I was looking at the rankings, I agreed with most of them from what I've heard or read myself about some of our young tallent.

 

A few ?'s...

-Nic Johnson - whats the story? I expected to see him atleast among the top 30...whats the latest on him? is he just developing slowly, not reaching the potential that was assumed?

 

-With the eval of Dopi, how soon could we expect to see him crack the ML roster?

 

-I've been a big fan of Guz for a while now and am excited to hopefully see him put together a full season this year. That being said, does he have a valid shot at making the ML roster this season?

 

-Sergio Mitre? Where's he fit into all of this? He didnt make the roster cuts so he's still in the system...

[Tim]

I just answered these questions in the other thread. :D

[MattyJLCC]

I just answered these questions in the other thread. :D

 

Thanks for the answers Tim. Could you explain a little more what happened to Nic Johnson, and if there seems to be any hope of him making a ML impact at any time?