Cody Opts In

[Cuzi]

3 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

You have 6 guys (Happ, PCA, Suzuki, Bellinger, Busch, Rooker) for 5 spots (LF/CF/RF/DH/1B), and that's before doing potentially dumb/creative things like giving Busch a second baseman's glove. Everybody gets a day off once a week and you always have an above league average hitter on your bench. Seems plenty workable to me. 

Seems inefficient to me.

Using significant capital to bolster the teams strength versus the teams weakness? Rather focus on dealing for a cost controlled SP or catcher.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 hour ago, Cuzi said:

Seems inefficient to me.

Using significant capital to bolster the teams strength versus the teams weakness? Rather focus on dealing for a cost controlled SP or catcher.

No less efficient than using the marginal resources on a 2nd SP when they have Assad/Brown/Wicks and at least 3 others for the 5th spot.  Reasonable people can disagree on exactly where to tune the dials(I might prefer to trade for Lowe over Rooker), but the important point is that it is not wrong/redundant and in fact necessary to get another good hitter.  They still have ~50 million to work with plus a cache of prospects that are around peak value, there are some things that Bellinger opting in may make less likely but it's not as if austerity is the name of the game all of a sudden.

[Rcal10]

13 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

No less efficient than using the marginal resources on a 2nd SP when they have Assad/Brown/Wicks and at least 3 others for the 5th spot.  Reasonable people can disagree on exactly where to tune the dials(I might prefer to trade for Lowe over Rooker), but the important point is that it is not wrong/redundant and in fact necessary to get another good hitter.  They still have ~50 million to work with plus a cache of prospects that are around peak value, there are some things that Bellinger opting in may make less likely but it's not as if austerity is the name of the game all of a sudden.

I agree with this. Nothing wrong with having 9 starters for 8 non catcher spots. But I would rather that guy be Lowe over Rooker as well. I like the idea of a guy who can play the infield. Especially with Hoerner possibly miasing some time to start the season. And he would cost less in the way of prospects. Maybe then use more prospects to get that quality catcher. O’Hoppe or Langeliers.Then use free agency to add pitching. That would strengthen the line up, the bench, the rotation and the pen. 

Edited November 2, 2024 by Rcal10

[Transmogrified Tiger]

4 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Can they use Tauchman to help with their offseason shopping list?  He doesn't have a ton of value but is a useful role player that can be a secondary trade piece or maybe bring a 2nd reliever.  For example, KC needs OF bats and likely trusts their pitching dev, so maybe Tauchman for Bubic is a framework that gets you RP2 on your offseason needs.

Another possibility in this vein might be Cleveland, who ended up with a Tyler Freeman/Lane Thomas platoon in CF most of the year and don't have an obvious heir apparent.  Trevor Stephan was a good enough reliever to get a pre-arb extension before getting TJS in ST last year, so for basically a wash money wise Cleveland may feel it's worth to bank some more solid CF production vs Stephan hopefully getting back to 7th/8th inning form.  The stuff is good enough that you could hope for a multi-year solution, and unlike many arb relievers he appears to have options which helps be more aggressive with FA and your own out of options retentions.

[Derwood]

Outside of trading one (or more) starters, I can't imagine this team looking a lot different last year.

[muntjack]

I know it's only the most recent ~30% of their respective mlb careers,  but Amaya was just so much better (offensively) than O'Hoppe from July forward,   

Sending a heavy package of prospects for a guy that may well weaken the lineup doesn't seem ideal.  

I like O'Hoppe, and think he could have a good career,  I just feel the same about Amaya, and would therefore rather spend prospect capital elsewhere.   

[Stratos]

Belli is a good player and think the HR can go up from last year but he's still a 20-25 HR guy.  We could really use more HR.  But he brings other things to the table, a good all- around player, virtually no holes in his game.

This lineup is looking exactly the same as last season. That's a bit worrisome.  At least we have a full year of Paredes.

Counting on finding a catcher to get more power and an offensive boost to the lineup will be tough. Especially since catchers don't play every day.  Jed has been good at filling holes when needed though.

Amaya could do better next year but it's not something we should count on.  He was terrible every month but July and Aug.

A Bellinger trade is unlikely but isn't off the table.  Jed is very flexible and does things we dont expect so I think they'll still look at Soto and any other options that could boost the offense.

Edited November 2, 2024 by Stratos

[imb]

5 hours ago, Cuzi said:

Seems inefficient to me.

Using significant capital to bolster the teams strength versus the teams weakness? Rather focus on dealing for a cost controlled SP or catcher.

I’d rather have a good extra OF than pass on him so we can spend money on another 500 ops catcher

[chibears55]

Why would Oakland trade him now ?

He's in Arb and under team control for 3 more years.

 

[Cuzi]

14 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Why would Oakland trade him now ?

He's in Arb and under team control for 3 more years.

 

Because they suck and they don't carry any payroll ever and that's what teams like that do to bulk buy top prospects.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Cody is opting in because he knows Soto and a top tier SP are coming. World Series 2025, you ninnies!

[chibears55]

2 hours ago, Cuzi said:

Because they suck and they don't carry any payroll ever and that's what teams like that do to bulk buy top prospects.

He made 750 K last season and is projected to make 5 million this season, i think they can handle that.

Not saying they won't but they don't need to trade him this offseason. 

[Cuzi]

36 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

He made 750 K last season and is projected to make 5 million this season, i think they can handle that.

Not saying they won't but they don't need to trade him this offseason. 

The Rays could have handled Paredes too. It's what teams like them do. It's how they survive. They dont wait til the last minute to trade someone when they aren't going to be competitive from now til then. There's no point in watching value dwindle for the sake of having 1 good player on a ****** team that cant afford to build in FA.

Edited November 3, 2024 by Cuzi

[Stratos]

6 hours ago, muntjack said:

I know it's only the most recent ~30% of their respective mlb careers,  but Amaya was just so much better (offensively) than O'Hoppe from July forward,   

Sending a heavy package of prospects for a guy that may well weaken the lineup doesn't seem ideal.  

I like O'Hoppe, and think he could have a good career,  I just feel the same about Amaya, and would therefore rather spend prospect capital elsewhere.   

Amaya has some upside but i don't think the FO should make decisions for next year based on 2 good months when the others were terrible (including Sept).  Anyone can hit well for 100 AB's.  I hope they see him as a 2nd catcher at this point until he proves otherwise and can find an upgrade to pair with him.

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Cuzi said:

The Rays could have handled Paredes too. It's what teams like them do. It's how they survive. They dont wait til the last minute to trade someone when they aren't going to be competitive from now til then. There's no point in watching value dwindle for the sake of having 1 good player on a ****** team that cant afford to build in FA.

True,  but if they do move him this offseason,  I doubt Hoyer even attempt to have that conversation unless he trades Bellinger or gets one of Happ or Suzuki to waive and trade.

I bet he'll be content with having Bellinger, Happ, Suzuki, PCA (Busch) as his regulars with Caissie and Alcantara as his future/depth and won't feel a need to add another guy that will require 500+ AB  for the OF/DH.

The names we would likely have to be looking at are probably Catchers, and ones that will be useful off the bench that would be upgrades over who they have now.

Bethencourt, Wisdom,  Canario, and Tauchman 

 

[CubinNY]

12 hours ago, imb said:

I’d rather have a good extra OF than pass on him so we can spend money on another 500 ops catcher

Strengthening a strength is a good strategy in baseball as long as the best players get the most opportunities. We know how often Suzuki gets hurt. 

[jumbo]

The idea of 9 players for 8 spots is a good one. Injury, slumps, rest are all good enough reasons why. You also get real threats available to pinch hit and play matchups later in games. 

I still like the idea of breaking camp with Shaw in a rotation with the infield. I did the math once on 6 games a week, 18 spaces for 3B, SS, 2B - give Dansby 5-6, Paredes, 5-6, Nico, 4-5, Shaw 3-4. The high and low sides at up to 18 each. Increase/decrease based on all the factors above. 

The OF/DH thing was shown above, same idea. With Cody now you add 1B to the rotation. I like it

[jersey cubs fan]

3B, SS and 2B are not interchangeable positions and I don’t really see a point in bringing up Shaw to play 3 times a week 

[thawv]

22 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Closer to $50m

Using Cots, and only signing 3-4 arb guys, I see it at around 65 million right now.

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, thawv said:

Using Cots, and only signing 3-4 arb guys, I see it at around 65 million right now.

Youre missing something in your math then. It's been reported plenty of times, even dating back to Oct 1st by Sharma in the Athletic that an opt-in would leave the Cubs roughly $50m below that of what they spent in 2024. It would have been around $80m had he opted out. Don't know what youre missing, but that's the number.

[thawv]

Just now, 1908_Cubs said:

Youre missing something in your math then. It's been reported plenty of times, even dating back to Oct 1st by Sharma in the Athletic that an opt-in would leave the Cubs roughly $50m below that of what they spent in 2024. It would have been around $80m had he opted out. Don't know what youre missing, but that's the number.

I've done the math several times,  I had 92 million with Cody opting out, and 65 with him not opting out.  I have 10-11 guy getting non tendered.  Cot's still has those salaries in their numbers.  Back those out, and you have the correct payroll. 

 

[thawv]

16 hours ago, Stratos said:

Belli is a good player and think the HR can go up from last year but he's still a 20-25 HR guy.  We could really use more HR.  But he brings other things to the table, a good all- around player, virtually no holes in his game.

This lineup is looking exactly the same as last season. That's a bit worrisome.  At least we have a full year of Paredes.

Counting on finding a catcher to get more power and an offensive boost to the lineup will be tough. Especially since catchers don't play every day.  Jed has been good at filling holes when needed though.

Amaya could do better next year but it's not something we should count on.  He was terrible every month but July and Aug.

A Bellinger trade is unlikely but isn't off the table.  Jed is very flexible and does things we dont expect so I think they'll still look at Soto and any other options that could boost the offense.

I expect better performances from Paredes, Busch, and PCA.  Add a catcher, and put all the money towards pitching.  I'd like to see a top 10 offense, and a top 5 rotation and pen.  

[Jason Ross]

9 minutes ago, thawv said:

I've done the math several times,  I had 92 million with Cody opting out, and 65 with him not opting out.  I have 10-11 guy getting non tendered.  Cot's still has those salaries in their numbers.  Back those out, and you have the correct payroll. 

 

Okay. Im still going to side with Sahadev Sharma over your math. It's been widely believed the number is roughly $50m. So you're either non-tendering people who aren't being non-tendered or missing something. Or somehow you've found a missing $15m that no one else has found. No shade towards you, but I'm guessing it's an error moreso than the latter considering Sharma and how close he is to the team. 

[thawv]

23 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Okay. Im still going to side with Sahadev Sharma over your math. It's been widely believed the number is $50m. So you're either non-tendering people who aren't being non-tendered or missing something. Or somehow you've found a missing $15m that no one else has found. No shade towards you, but I'm guessing it's an error moreso than the latter considering Sharma and how close he is to the team.

Here's my numbers.  Please correct me with your numbers.  This is Cot's CBA numbers.

Contracts (7)

Belli 26.7

Dansby 25.3

Happ 20.3

Suzuki 17

Jaimo 17

Imanago 13.2

Nico 11.7

Total 131.2 million

 

Arb guys (4)

Steele 6.3

Paredes 5.3

Pearson 1.2

Merryweather 1.2

Total 14 million

 

0-3 guys (12)

Assad

Wesneski

Amaya

Miller

Busch

Wicks

Little

Brown

PCA

Kilian

Hodge

Vasquez

Total approx 9.3 million

 

Total 154.5 million

 

Now add in almost 22 million for 0-3 bonus pool, 40 man guys, and player benefits, and we have a payroll of around 176 million.  That would be 65 million under.

 

Honestly, help me with this.  What do YOU see?  Not Sharma.   

Edited November 3, 2024 by thawv

[Bertz]

18 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Okay. Im still going to side with Sahadev Sharma over your math. It's been widely believed the number is roughly $50m. So you're either non-tendering people who aren't being non-tendered or missing something. Or somehow you've found a missing $15m that no one else has found. No shade towards you, but I'm guessing it's an error moreso than the latter considering Sharma and how close he is to the team. 

With Bellinger gone I had 80, and that included about $5M as buffer so you could call it 85 if you want to be super literal.  Bellinger opting in cuts $27M, which brings us down to~$53M.  Smart money is always to round down, hence $50.  But you could maybe call it $55 with a Tauchman trade seemingly pretty inevitable?