Non-Soto FA thread

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Pete Crow-Armstrong was just fine doing the "wait until an injury opens up PT" plan. Shaw will be as well. Any injury to a 2b, SS or 3B will open up time for him. It'll be fine. We shouldn't be in such a rush to move in from a 4 win player. 

 

If a really good trade presents itself? Okay we can talk. But there is *literally* no rush.

Different year, but same thawv. He always wants to rush players. 

[Rob]

Shaw is exciting, and he may well render Hoerner redundant. But I see little need to push him.

Already, we know our playoff hopes likely have a razor thin margin. We aren't some powerhouse team that can afford to take a mild downgrade this season while Shaw works out issues at the big league level.  So pushing out a four win player for a guy who'd likely be worth closer to two this season (and maybe four a couple seasons down the road), is a move that we just can't make.

Shaw can do the "first guy up from AAA" thing in event of injury. He will get his reps eventually, I have no doubt.

Edited December 1, 2024 by Rob

[thawv]

43 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Pete Crow-Armstrong was just fine doing the "wait until an injury opens up PT" plan. Shaw will be as well. Any injury to a 2b, SS or 3B will open up time for him. It'll be fine. We shouldn't be in such a rush to move in from a 4 win player. 

 

If a really good trade presents itself? Okay we can talk. But there is *literally* no rush.

I feel differently.  I think that right now, Shaw is the better player than Nico.  We have enough glove first guys.  We can afford to sacrifice defense for offense right now.  I'd look to be making a hard effort to create a spot for Shaw opposed to waiting for an injury.  Shaw is also much more advanced and polished of a hitter than PCA is likely every going to be.  

[thawv]

39 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Different year, but same thawv. He always wants to rush players. 

Rushing a player is calling him up when he's not close to ready.  Shaw can't be any more ready.  If he's ready, it's not rushing him.  It's the next step, and it should be now instead of waiting for an injury.  The rest of the system is not really that close to being ready.  Shaw is ready. 

 

[thawv]

30 minutes ago, Rob said:

Shaw is exciting, and he may well render Hoerner redundant. But I see little need to push him.

Already, we know our playoff hopes likely have a razor thin margin. We aren't some powerhouse team that can afford to take a mild downgrade this season while Shaw works out issues at the big league level.  So pushing out a four win player for a guy who'd likely be worth closer to two this season (and maybe four a couple seasons down the road), is a move that we just can't make.

Shaw can do the "first guy up from AAA" thing in event of injury. He will get his reps eventually, I have no doubt.

So if everybody stays healthy, when do you call him up?  In 2027 when there's a spot for him?  Do you never call a guy up on his merit, or always wait for an injury?  Caissie and company are not close to ready.  Facing more minor league pitching for Shaw is not going to help his development when he has nothing left to prove.  

 

[Jason Ross]

16 minutes ago, thawv said:

Rushing a player is calling him up when he's not close to ready.  Shaw can't be any more ready.  If he's ready, it's not rushing him.  It's the next step, and it should be now instead of waiting for an injury.  The rest of the system is not really that close to being ready.  Shaw is ready. 

 

Three 2b have been worth more than Nico Hoerner the last three seasons. Youre entitled to your own opinion, but thinking Matt Shaw, today, is a top-3 second baseman feels like a pretty outlandish opinion. 

I didn't say you were "rushing" Shaw. I said you were in a rush to trade a four win player. The Cubs aren't so good that they should be dumping 4 win players or be in a rush to move them. 

As I said, if a really good trade offer comes in on Hoerner we can talk. But that feels pretty unlikely. Meaning the Cubs should be in no rush to make that happen. 

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Three 2b have been worth more than Nico Hoerner the last three seasons. Youre entitled to your own opinion, but thinking Matt Shaw, today, is a top-3 second baseman feels like a pretty outlandish opinion. 

Agreed. Shaw has had 600 AB as a professional. There is absolutely no reason to assume he is a top 5 2nd baseman in baseball. It is also very possible after 600 AB he isn’t ready and it is rushing him to expect him to be that good. 

[chibears55]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Within the parameters you set I can see the following off season all with FA signings. Eovaldi(3/$57M), Finnagen 1/$10M), FA catchers (2/$15M) and Grichek (1/$8M). All in $44.5M and under budget. Obviously there are all sorts of other options. They could also make trades. But the point is all of these would fit what you suggested. I think the only place we differ is I would consider this an active off season and you seem to be suggesting something like this wouldn’t be much. If you add Parades and Pearson along with Morgan, that is 7 different players on the team to start 25 then there was in early July of 24’. I 100% agree with you that they are not going to sign a “star” player to a long deal. But 5 moves in the off season, added to a couple in the last part of last season is significant chance that can improve the team significantly. 

They won 83 games with alot of key players not really hitting their average and a bullpen that struggled most of year, so yeah they can match that or better if just those two part of the roster is better then how they performed last season. 

That basically going to be the key to a successful season,  their regulars position players that slumped most of season all have to improve from last season. 

Bullpen has to be better then they started out last season, and hope who they add to replace Bethencourt, Tauchman,  and Wisdom can be as good or better then what they provided. 

 

Simple right ....   lol

Getting Sasaki would be major, hopefully they can somehow pull that off

[Rcal10]

Just now, TomtheBombadil said:

Hot take: This rush to swap out Hoerner for Shaw, rather than trading Shaw, is a part of this early offseason “the grass is always greener” theme we’re seeing all over. Hoerner’s a flawed ML, and thats bad for reasons, but Shaw’s a plenty flawed MiLB player. Assuming he’s going to be equal or better is one I’d pass on 

I’m not sure I would trade Shaw. But I guess if Shaw+  brings back someone at the level of Crochet I would consider it. That said, I do get your point. Instead of trading the established good player, trade the prospect for another good major league player. That makes the team better. 

[thawv]

9 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Three 2b have been worth more than Nico Hoerner the last three seasons. Youre entitled to your own opinion, but thinking Matt Shaw, today, is a top-3 second baseman feels like a pretty outlandish opinion. 

I didn't say you were "rushing" Shaw. I said you were in a rush to trade a four win player. The Cubs aren't so good that they should be dumping 4 win players or be in a rush to move them. 

As I said, if a really good trade offer comes in on Hoerner we can talk. But that feels pretty unlikely. Meaning the Cubs should be in no rush to make that happen. 

I think the team will be a better offense with Shaw over Nico from today on.  We'll lose some defense, but we'll gain a ton off offense.  I'm fine with putting Nico on the bench as a utility player.  But that's never going to happen. 

[thawv]

8 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Agreed. Shaw has had 600 AB as a professional. There is absolutely no reason to assume he is a top 5 2nd baseman in baseball. It is also very possible after 600 AB he isn’t ready and it is rushing him to expect him to be that good. 

It's also very possible that he's ready and it's not rushing him.  Teams take calculated risks to improve the team.  They don't run the same slightly above average players out there every year.  However, I can most certainly see the Cubs doing that 

Edited December 1, 2024 by thawv

[chibears55]

29 minutes ago, thawv said:

I feel differently.  I think that right now, Shaw is the better player than Nico.  We have enough glove first guys.  We can afford to sacrifice defense for offense right now.  I'd look to be making a hard effort to create a spot for Shaw opposed to waiting for an injury.  Shaw is also much more advanced and polished of a hitter than PCA is likely every going to be.  

With Hoerner injury/surgery he'll likebe out until May or June depending on how he recovers and rehabs, plus then he'll need time to get baseball ready, so we may just see Shaw start the season with them as long as he has a good ST, i don't think as of now they have any real competition for him on the current roster.

So he may have a great opportunity to show he belongs in the first month or so.

[thawv]

7 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

With Hoerner injury/surgery he'll likebe out until May or June depending on how he recovers and rehabs, plus then he'll need time to get baseball ready, so we may just see Shaw start the season with them as long as he has a good ST, i don't think as of now they have any real competition for him on the current roster.

So he may have a great opportunity to show he belongs in the first month or so.

This is the most likely scenario.  But his healing time is anywhere from Jan 15 ish to April 15 ish.  Maybe it's longer?  I've seen 3-6 months recovery time, and I've seen 6- 9 months recovery time.  I guess we'll see. 

Edited December 1, 2024 by thawv

[Jason Ross]

18 minutes ago, thawv said:

I think the team will be a better offense with Shaw over Nico from today on.  We'll lose some defense, but we'll gain a ton off offense.  I'm fine with putting Nico on the bench as a utility player.  But that's never going to happen. 

Matt Shaw is unlikely to be better than Nico Hoerner for a bit. Probably all 2025. Again, unless you think Matt Shaw is a top-3 2b, *right now*, than Matt Shaw isn't better than Nico Hoerner right now. *Maybe* he's better offensively. But he's not a better player or does he add more value. Go look at all of the best offensive prospects in the MLB. How many came up right away and were successful? Even the best of the best struggled for months on end. 

It would be a bad idea for the Cubs to force feed through a worse player *right now*. They're not good enough.

We have things like fWAR that do a really great job at determine value. A far better job than you and I. And it's pretty unlikely Shaw is a 4 win player right now. It's very likely Nico Hoerner is. He's been one for all intents and purposes for three years now. 

[thawv]

3 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Matt Shaw is unlikely to be better than Nico Hoerner for a bit. Probably all 2025. Again, unless you think Matt Shaw is a top-3 2b, *right now*, than Matt Shaw isn't better than Nico Hoerner right now. *Maybe* he's better offensively. But he's not a better player or does he add more value. Go look at all of the best offensive prospects in the MLB. How many came up right away and were successful? Even the best of the best struggled for months on end. 

It would be a bad idea for the Cubs to force feed through a worse player *right now*. They're not good enough.

We have things like fWAR that do a really great job at determine value. A far better job than you and I. And it's pretty unlikely Shaw is a 4 win player right now. It's very likely Nico Hoerner is. He's been one for all intents and purposes for three years now. 

I'm ready for Shaw to replace Nico.  Either Nico as a utility player or a trade.  I think Shaw plus the return for Nico is going to be better than Nico with Shaw in AAA.  

[Transmogrified Tiger]

An exhaustive list of 2B who were clearly better than Hoerner's established offensive norm last year:

• Ketel Marte
• Jose Altuve

Matt Shaw is a great prospect, I'm very high on him.  Assuming he is going to be an elite offensive 2B on day 1, never mind the massive defensive downgrade, is a mistake.  Nico Hoerner is really, really good.

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, thawv said:

I'm ready for Shaw to replace Nico.  Either Nico as a utility player or a trade.  I think Shaw plus the return for Nico is going to be better than Nico with Shaw in AAA.  

You keep moving the goal posts. The Cubs shouldn't do what you want, they should put the best team on the field. The best team in 2025 is almost assuredly with Nico Hoerner over Matt Shaw. 

We have discussed the potential of a Hoerner trade. If he was healthy, maybe a team trades you a mid rotation arm for him, but those teams are very limited. He's not healthy, it almost assuredly means there's even less teams.

What trade do you think the Cubs can make here?

[thawv]

1 minute ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

An exhaustive list of 2B who were clearly better than Hoerner's established offensive norm last year:

• Ketel Marte
• Jose Altuve

Matt Shaw is a great prospect, I'm very high on him.  Assuming he is going to be an elite offensive 2B on day 1, never mind the massive defensive downgrade, is a mistake.  Nico Hoerner is really, really good.

Are you implying that Nico is an elite offensive player?  He's not.  We know what he is offensively, and it's average.  Look, if you think that Shaw won't be as good as Nico offensively, then that's your contention.  I just don't agree with it.  I think that right now, Shaw is an offensive upgrade to Nico, who is and will not be no better than average.  I'd like to upgrade from average. 

[Bertz]

Doing things just for the sake of doing things or "switching things up" is a tried and true way to make a bad decision.

[thawv]

2 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

You keep moving the goal posts. The Cubs shouldn't do what you want, they should put the best team on the field. The best team in 2025 is almost assuredly with Nico Hoerner over Matt Shaw. 

We have discussed the potential of a Hoerner trade. If he was healthy, maybe a team trades you a mid rotation arm for him, but those teams are very limited. He's not healthy, it almost assuredly means there's even less teams.

What trade do you think the Cubs can make here?

A trade today is pretty much out of the question.  So no trade.  I'm hoping that he's still injured so that Shaw can start in MLB career.  It's pretty simple for me.  I'd prefer Shaw over Nico.  You don't feel that way.  I'm not trying to change your mind either.  

[thawv]

Just now, Bertz said:

Doing things just for the sake of doing things or "switching things up" is a tried and true way to make a bad decision.

So Nico is a better offensive player than Shaw in your eyes?  I disagree. 

[Rob]

39 minutes ago, thawv said:

So if everybody stays healthy, when do you call him up?  In 2027 when there's a spot for him?  Do you never call a guy up on his merit, or always wait for an injury?  Caissie and company are not close to ready.  Facing more minor league pitching for Shaw is not going to help his development when he has nothing left to prove.  

 

Everybody staying healthy is a pipedream. Did you forget that Hoerner had surgery that may keep him out the first part of the season?

Shaw is going to get a ton of chances in ST to prove his worth. And he's likely to line himself up as a the primary backup to 2B, 3B, and SS. He may start the season with the Cubs depending on Hoerner's recovery, but once Hoerner is good to go it probably makes sense to put Shaw back in AAA for his development. But I'd bet dollars to donuts that any prolonged injury to Swanson, Hoerner, or Paredes ends up with Shaw getting the nod.

I'd guess Shaw logs north of 60 games with the Cubs this year, and is poised to take over a spot next year.

And to touch on a point you've made to other people -- I don't know why you're so concerned about offensive runs versus defensive runs. There are arguments about the proper roster construction to be made in the playoffs, but for the regular season runs are basically runs. There's no point of diminishing returns on defense during the regular season. Remember 2016? We had the best defense in baseball.

[Rob]

Double post. Delete me please and thank you.

Edited December 1, 2024 by Rob

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, thawv said:

So Nico is a better offensive player than Shaw in your eyes?  I disagree. 

Offensively?  It's probably close.  Holistically?  It's probably not.

[Tryptamine]

in 2025, a slight offensive upgrade for a massive defensive downgrade, not sure i see the point.