General Offseason Priorities

[squally1313]

34 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Jeez o' pete. Can we agree that they were among the most used relievers and stop with the pedantic bull horsefeathers. 

 

this you?

On 9/24/2024 at 9:44 AM, CubinNY said:

At the risk of turning this into something it shouldn't here are some axioms

1. We live in a cause and effect universe

2. Behavior is a dynamic property that is frequently changing and subject to multiple variables

3. Reality is never wrong

4. All mathematical modes are subject to measurement error. The errors can be large or small. When the model deviates from reality, the model has errors. See #3. What some call luck/variance is an attribute or explanation not based on a model.  It's also called an explanatory fiction. 

----------------

The fact that the Cubs underperformed or some team overperformed their Pythagorean record doesn't mean they got lucky/negative-positive variance. It means the model isn't perfect and other unidentified factors may have contributed to the deviation. It doesn't mean the model is useless either. 

 

[CubinNY]

2 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

this you?

 

You are the king of not getting it. 

[Stratos]

8 hours ago, Cuzi said:

If there are 4 people tied for 1st, the 5th person isnt 2nd, they are 5th.

Then who is 2nd, 3rd, and 4th?  I've never seen anything ranked this way in my life.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

5 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Then who is 2nd, 3rd, and 4th?  I've never seen anything ranked this way in my life.

Everything is ranked this way. You can't be 2nd when there are 4 people ahead of you.

[Cuzi]

16 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Then who is 2nd, 3rd, and 4th?  I've never seen anything ranked this way in my life.

That's how ranking works?

https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/2024/masters-tournament/R2024014/past-results

There's golf for you, which is the easiest example to show you.

[squally1313]

33 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

You are the king of not getting it. 

Look man, I don’t go find conversations you’re having and tell you to stop the ‘pedantic bull horsefeathers’. There’s an entire rest of the internet out there if this isn’t up your alley. It’s a message board about a sports team, this is all pointless. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

Then who is 2nd, 3rd, and 4th?  I've never seen anything ranked this way in my life.

Look at mlb home run leaders. 3 guys are tied for 6th. Then the guy with one less than them is shown as 9th. It is always that way. 

[Bull]

On 9/22/2024 at 8:15 PM, Tim said:

I understand why you're saying the Cubs are currently an 83 win team. If they finish 3-3 against Philly & Washington, they'll literally be an 83 win team. But I'd argue there are good reasons to suggest the baseline is higher than that.

1. By pythagorean wins, they're currently 14 games above .500, which would put them at 88 wins with neutral luck
2. They had a crapload of injuries early in the year
3. They've played much better in the second half since they got a bit healthier, PCA matured his approach, and we swapped out Morel for Paredes
4. While I feel like I say this in the second half of every year, they should have much better bullpen options to start the season next year and seem to have found a legit closer in Hodge

But I still agree with the overall point. They need to do more than just add a big bat, even if that big bat is Soto.

1. Pythgorean wins doesn't just correct for luck. It corrects for "bunchiness" and streakiness. It places the runs in a 12-1 win against a scrub as equal in nature to the 1 run in a 2-1 loss because you didn't have a real closer. Some of that evens out, some of it doesn't

2. Injuries hurt more than usual, but the depth in the SR helped them overcome. Lack of quality depth elsewhere was a problem.

3. PCA, for all his nincompoopiness, makes the Cubs significantly better next. Progress from Busch and the arrival of Shaw et al, will help next year as well.

4. Go get a legit closer and leave the variance/league adjusts potential in Hodge start out in the 7th inning.

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Cuzi said:

That's how ranking works?

https://www.pgatour.com/tournaments/2024/masters-tournament/R2024014/past-results

There's golf for you, which is the easiest example to show you.

Ok i guess i'm wrong on the ranking.  Changes nothing about my point though

[Rcal10]

55 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Ok i guess i'm wrong on the ranking.  Changes nothing about my point though

That is true. If your point was they were used a lot during the handpicked timeframe you used, you are right. You proved that to be correct. If you point was what you showed backs your belief that overuse caused them to all suck in September and to have 2 of the 3 get injured, I think you fell short of proving that. How did the other 25 guys all around the same amount of games do in September? How many of them are hurt now? Leiter and Merryweather tied for 23rd in total appearances last year. Alzolay didn’t even crack the top 100. There is simply no proof overuse caused issues. 
There is just not a one size fits all solution to the pen. All 3 of those guys have shown in the past to have bad stretches. Just because they all had a bad stretch in September does not mean it was because of use prior to that. Could just mean they are all middle relief pitcher who by nature are all prone to be good for some time and bad for some time. The nature of that spot lends itself to that sort of a pitcher. As for injuries, I do tend to agree with you on the Cubs should have expected or at least be prepared for Alzolay to go down. But not because of that 2 month stretch. Because his history shows he could be susceptible to arm problems. Same with Merryweather, really. 

Edited September 26, 2024 by Rcal10

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

That is true. If your point was they were used a lot during the handpicked timeframe you used, you are right. You proved that to be correct. If you point was what you showed backs your belief that overuse caused them to all suck in September and to have 2 of the 3 get injured, I think you fell short of proving that. How did the other 25 guys all around the same amount of games do in September? How many of them are hurt now? Leiter and Merryweather tied for 23rd in total appearances last year. Alzolay didn’t even crack the top 100. There is simply no proof overuse caused issues. 
There is just not a one size fits all solution to the pen. All 3 of those guys have shown in the past to have bad stretches. Just because they all had a bad stretch in September does not mean it was because of use prior to that. Could just mean they are all middle relief pitcher who by nature are all prone to be good for some time and bad for some time. The nature of that spot lends itself to that sort of a pitcher. As for injuries, I do tend to agree with you on the Cubs should have expected or at least be prepared for Alzolay to go down. But not because of that 2 month stretch. Because his history shows he could be susceptible to arm problems. Same with Merryweather, really. 

It's really not possible to "prove" why Alzolay got injured or Leiter sucked in Sept.  I think there's a decent chance that if they had another reliable arm or 2 they may have been able to avoid the injuries and/or some Sept fade (even though the pen did ok in Sept besides those 2 guys).

[Tim]

I was bored, so I modified this one to include Soto...

Adding to my previous post to put actual names with things...

• Sign Soto (12/$600M, some of the money deferred for cap purposes, variety of opt-outs)
• Trade for Sandy Alcantara + Calvin Faucher (2 top 100-ish propects + decent add on - say Alcantara, Rojas, McGeary)
• Trade for Garret Crochet (2 top 50-ish prospects + decent add on - say Caissie, Mo, Will Sanders)
• Bellinger opts out
• Sign Carson Kelly
• Sign Tanner Scott
• Extend Lopez

That's a do-able offseason. 2 trades, 1 extension, & three FA. That's probably over the cap, but how much so depends on how much money Soto is willing to defer. He doesn't have the endorsement money that Shohei brings in. But the SP adds are both cost controlled, Lopez shouldn't cost a ton with his background. Kelly should be moderately priced. Scott is probably the other expensive add - I'd be fine with Robertson instead, but if we're pushing the chips in it makes sense to invest in a big-time reliever to add to the pen.

On offense, we'd have the following all reasonably projected at 3+ WAR:

• Soto
• Happ
• Swanson
• Hoerner
• Seiya
• PCA
• Paredes

The other positions would project to 2+ WAR:

• Busch
• Kelly/Amaya

Bench would be catcher + Shaw + Tauchman + whomever. To start the year, Shaw gets a Zobrist role to insert into the lineup depending on injuries, resting starters, matchups, performance, etc. That is probably a 28+ WAR team and top 5 in baseball.

Starting pitching would be damn good and probably top 5 in baseball:

• Steele
• Crochet
• Shota
• Alcantara
• Taillon
• Brown / Assad / Wicks / Wesneski / Horton

Relievers would be deep and strong at the top:

• Scott
• Hodge
• Lopez
• Faucher
• Miller
• Brown / Assad / Wicks / Wesneski
• Merryweather
• Pearson
• Little
• Roberts
• Almonte
• Keegan
• Neely
• Palencia
• Adbert
• Rookies

That's an easy 93 win team and could push 100, IMO. We'd likely need to start dumping salary after the first couple years as some players get more expensive, but we'll also get relief as some of the current players start exiting their deals. We'd still have Horton, Shaw, Cam Smith to headline our prospects. Maybe there's another big-boy path available, but I think this one covers the needs without being too crazy.

[CubinNY]

12 minutes ago, Tim said:

I was bored, so I modified this one to include Soto...

Adding to my previous post to put actual names with things...

• Sign Soto (12/$600M, some of the money deferred for cap purposes, variety of opt-outs)
• Trade for Sandy Alcantara + Calvin Faucher (2 top 100-ish propects + decent add on - say Alcantara, Rojas, McGeary)
• Trade for Garret Crochet (2 top 50-ish prospects + decent add on - say Caissie, Mo, Will Sanders)
• Bellinger opts out
• Sign Carson Kelly
• Sign Tanner Scott
• Extend Lopez

That's a do-able offseason. 2 trades, 1 extension, & three FA. That's probably over the cap, but how much so depends on how much money Soto is willing to defer. He doesn't have the endorsement money that Shohei brings in. But the SP adds are both cost controlled, Lopez shouldn't cost a ton with his background. Kelly should be moderately priced. Scott is probably the other expensive add - I'd be fine with Robertson instead, but if we're pushing the chips in it makes sense to invest in a big-time reliever to add to the pen.

On offense, we'd have the following all reasonably projected at 3+ WAR:

• Soto
• Happ
• Swanson
• Hoerner
• Seiya
• PCA
• Paredes

The other positions would project to 2+ WAR:

• Busch
• Kelly/Amaya

Bench would be catcher + Shaw + Tauchman + whomever. To start the year, Shaw gets a Zobrist role to insert into the lineup depending on injuries, resting starters, matchups, performance, etc. That is probably a 28+ WAR team and top 5 in baseball.

Starting pitching would be damn good and probably top 5 in baseball:

• Steele
• Crochet
• Shota
• Alcantara
• Taillon
• Brown / Assad / Wicks / Wesneski / Horton

Relievers would be deep and strong at the top:

• Scott
• Hodge
• Lopez
• Faucher
• Miller
• Brown / Assad / Wicks / Wesneski
• Merryweather
• Pearson
• Little
• Roberts
• Almonte
• Keegan
• Neely
• Palencia
• Adbert
• Rookies

That's an easy 93 win team and could push 100, IMO. We'd likely need to start dumping salary after the first couple years as some players get more expensive, but we'll also get relief as some of the current players start exiting their deals. We'd still have Horton, Shaw, Cam Smith to headline our prospects. Maybe there's another big-boy path available, but I think this one covers the needs without being too crazy.

I'd be over the moon if that happened. 

[gflore34]

7 minutes ago, Tim said:

I was bored, so I modified this one to include Soto...

Adding to my previous post to put actual names with things...

• Sign Soto (12/$600M, some of the money deferred for cap purposes, variety of opt-outs)
• Trade for Sandy Alcantara + Calvin Faucher (2 top 100-ish propects + decent add on - say Alcantara, Rojas, McGeary)
• Trade for Garret Crochet (2 top 50-ish prospects + decent add on - say Caissie, Mo, Will Sanders)
• Bellinger opts out
• Sign Carson Kelly
• Sign Tanner Scott
• Extend Lopez

That's a do-able offseason. 2 trades, 1 extension, & three FA. That's probably over the cap, but how much so depends on how much money Soto is willing to defer. He doesn't have the endorsement money that Shohei brings in. But the SP adds are both cost controlled, Lopez shouldn't cost a ton with his background. Kelly should be moderately priced. Scott is probably the other expensive add - I'd be fine with Robertson instead, but if we're pushing the chips in it makes sense to invest in a big-time reliever to add to the pen.

On offense, we'd have the following all reasonably projected at 3+ WAR:

• Soto
• Happ
• Swanson
• Hoerner
• Seiya
• PCA
• Paredes

The other positions would project to 2+ WAR:

• Busch
• Kelly/Amaya

Bench would be catcher + Shaw + Tauchman + whomever. To start the year, Shaw gets a Zobrist role to insert into the lineup depending on injuries, resting starters, matchups, performance, etc. That is probably a 28+ WAR team and top 5 in baseball.

Starting pitching would be damn good and probably top 5 in baseball:

• Steele
• Crochet
• Shota
• Alcantara
• Taillon
• Brown / Assad / Wicks / Wesneski / Horton

Relievers would be deep and strong at the top:

• Scott
• Hodge
• Lopez
• Faucher
• Miller
• Brown / Assad / Wicks / Wesneski
• Merryweather
• Pearson
• Little
• Roberts
• Almonte
• Keegan
• Neely
• Palencia
• Adbert
• Rookies

That's an easy 93 win team and could push 100, IMO. We'd likely need to start dumping salary after the first couple years as some players get more expensive, but we'll also get relief as some of the current players start exiting their deals. We'd still have Horton, Shaw, Cam Smith to headline our prospects. Maybe there's another big-boy path available, but I think this one covers the needs without being too crazy.

Don't know if it was previously posted nevertheless, may we see the non-Soto version? Thank you.

I don't think it realistic to even dream of the Cubs pursuing Soto, I believe he's going to stay in NY or, after the Dodgers don't win the WS, sign with LA with creative financing or, whatever, horsefeathers they do, deferring until 23rd century.

[WhyCantWeWin]

Will be the same team next year and be the same record yet again. Just gotta hope the rest of the NL sucks

[Tim]

2 hours ago, gflore34 said:

Don't know if it was previously posted nevertheless, may we see the non-Soto version? Thank you.

I don't think it realistic to even dream of the Cubs pursuing Soto, I believe he's going to stay in NY or, after the Dodgers don't win the WS, sign with LA with creative financing or, whatever, horsefeathers they do, deferring until 23rd century.

Here you go. From earlier in the thread. (page 8?):

-------------------------------------------------

Adding to my previous post to put actual names with things...

Leaving off Soto, because I think one of the NY teams will drop $600m on him:

• Trade for Crochet (3 top 100-ish propects, all MLB-ready, Alcantara/Caissie/Triantos)
• Let's just say Robertson
• Bellinger stays
• Sign Carson Kelly
• Sign Flaherty

That's a do-able offseason. 1 trade, 1 opt-in, 1 extension, & three FA.

On offense, we'd have the following all reasonably projected at 3+ WAR:

• Happ
• Swanson
• Hoerner
• Seiya
• PCA
• Paredes

The other positions would project to 2+ WAR:

• Bellinger
• Busch
• Kelly/Amaya

Bench would be catcher + Shaw + Tauchman + whomever. To start the year, Shaw gets a Zobrist role to insert into the lineup depending on injuries, resting starters, matchups, performance, etc. That's probably a 25+ WAR team and top 5-10 lineups in baseball. Add Soto in place of Bellinger and it is probably a 28+ WAR team and top 5.

Starting pitching would be damn good:

• Steele
• Crochet
• Shota
• Flaherty
• Taillon
• Brown / Assad / Wicks / Wesneski / Horton

Relievers would be deep and strong at the top:

• Robertson
• Hodge
• Lopez
• Miller
• Merryweather
• Pearson
• Little
• Roberts
• Almonte
• Keegan
• Neely
• Palencia
• Adbert
• Brown / Assad / Wicks / Wesneski
• Rookies

That's an easy 90 win team and could push 95, IMO.

[Stratos]

An issue with our team is having so many great glove, mediocre bat players.  Nico, Swanson, PCA, then you have Amaya who isn't good at hitting or defense.  That's 4 guys in the lineup that don't hit much (PCA is a work in progress - jury is still out).

Their overall value via WAR is the same, the gloves on these 3 guys help our pitchers overachieve which is great.  But I also think some of our pitchers aren't quite as good as we think they are because of it since it lowers their ERAs.  xFIP/FIP can come in handy here to help evaluate.

[Stratos]

We probably need to acquire a quality bat, a quality SP, and figure out how to build a pen not filled with JAGs who suck the first 3 months.   Anyone with a set of eyes can tell the talent difference between someone like Hodge and guys like Michael Fulmer, Jose Cuas etc

[muntjack]

Amaya after losing the leg kick was a 124 wRC+ bat.   Not saying he's a lock for that production but struggling young players who make adjustments and get better are a real thing.   

[Rex Buckingham]

39 minutes ago, muntjack said:

Amaya after losing the leg kick was a 124 wRC+ bat.   Not saying he's a lock for that production but struggling young players who make adjustments and get better are a real thing.   

Yeah, even a 90-100 wRC+ at the C position is a positive

[muntjack]

And those 170+ PAs include a very normal  .290 babip and an !  11% K rate.  I would covet Amaya if he were on another team.   Not saying they shouldn't look to improve,  I just don't think there are that many clear improvements that could be available, and if they pencil him in as the primary catcher for '25, I won't be upset.     

[CubinNY]

I’m thinking if Cody opts in - Trade Nico + Caissie for TOR SP. Move Busch to 2nd, go after Vlad. Buy high leverage relievers. 

 

If Cody opts out- buy Fried and look to trade for a middle order bat. Get a lefter masher for the bench. Buy high leverage relief. 

[JHBulls]

7 hours ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Will be the same team next year and be the same record yet again. Just gotta hope the rest of the NL sucks

Yep. You just know that Jed and the Ricketts thinking will be that the team finished 6 wins below contenders Mets and Braves, so minimal upgrades are needed. Pricks.

[LBiittner]

32 minutes ago, muntjack said:

And those 170+ PAs include a very normal  .290 babip and an !  11% K rate.  I would covet Amaya if he were on another team.   Not saying they shouldn't look to improve,  I just don't think there are that many clear improvements that could be available, and if they pencil him in as the primary catcher for '25, I won't be upset.     

A point to consider: it was reported Jed inquired about O'hoppe at the deadline. Seems he might be interested in upgrading over Amaya? 

[Rcal10]

52 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

A point to consider: it was reported Jed inquired about O'hoppe at the deadline. Seems he might be interested in upgrading over Amaya? 

True. But when did Amaya start performing better? Around the deadline? He could change his mind if they believe what they saw from Amaya is real. Personally I would like to see, at the very least, a solid guy to split time with him.