General Offseason Priorities

[Rcal10]

10 hours ago, Tim said:

Personal preference, but I hate long-term deals for pitchers. I'd rather deal for the TOR pitcher and sign the FA to a shorter deal. 

I get that. But I didn’t say anything about signing  FA pitcher to a long term deal. I said if they sign a quality starter, your example was Flaherty for 4 year, they can add a younger starter that doesn’t have to be at Crochett s ceiling. Maybe Cabrera, Keller or a starter the Marlins are willing to deal. When I suggested that I was just saying if they signed Flaherty they might not need Crochett. Personally both those guys scare me, but I am just using them because you suggested them. 

[muntjack]

It's not a fun answer, but variance is such a big part of this sport.  Yes, you try to compensate by filling all the gaps,  but the fact is Milwaukee ran away with the division and they have ONE qualified player over an .800 OPS. 

They gave Brice Turang (.675 OPS) 590 PAs and Sal Frelick (.648 OPS)  504 PAs

The Cubs had 3 SP who would have been the Brewers best.  

Find holes and plug them but sometimes variance is the real enemy. 

 

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Also offense is down league wide(only 35 qualifiers have an .800+ OPS), and Wrigley in particular has been brutal this year(29th park factor for runs in front of only Safeco).

[Stratos]

14 hours ago, muntjack said:

It's not a fun answer, but variance is such a big part of this sport.  Yes, you try to compensate by filling all the gaps,  but the fact is Milwaukee ran away with the division and they have ONE qualified player over an .800 OPS. 

They gave Brice Turang (.675 OPS) 590 PAs and Sal Frelick (.648 OPS)  504 PAs

The Cubs had 3 SP who would have been the Brewers best.  

Find holes and plug them but sometimes variance is the real enemy. 

 

 

The Brewers are 7th in MLB in runs scored, 10th in wRC+, and have the best mbaserunning in the MLB and best defense in the NL.  They're 6th in MLB in WAR.  Their defense has definitely helped their pitching and team ERA.

I'm not sure what you mean by "variance" regarding the Brewers, are you saying they've been lucky?

[Stratos]

On 9/20/2024 at 4:33 PM, Tim said:

Just thinking about my overall priorities for the offseason:

1. Sign Soto. He becomes the top/middle of the lineup anchor for years. He gets his own category here. I don't necessarily think the Cubs have to go get a "big bat", but if you can get Soto out of NY, you do it. I'd break the $500m level to get him. Maybe something like a 13/$520M offer? I'd go even higher if I could use the Ohtani trick and defer some of it. For me, Soto is the most "duh" combination of age, past performance, projected performance, etc. of any FA in many years (non-Ohtani category).
2. Top of rotation SP. Our best pitchers have health / durability concerns. We have no middle of the rotation going into next year. Literally every young pitcher we hoped would establish themselves have had injury concerns. I'd probably look to do a trade here to get this pitcher.
3. Bullpen anchor: It doesn't have to be a "closer", but someone that is going to be a really good bet to be a damn good pitcher.
4. Talk Bellinger into staying if you don't land Soto. I'm not enamored enough with the other bat options at the top of the market that I'd value their performances enough more than Bellinger to commit the years to them. I don't think Vlad Jr will actually be on the market and I'm not sure I'd want to extend him at the likely cost. 
5. If Bellinger opts out, then look into trading for Rooker, signing Santander, etc.
6. Upgrade at catcher. I'd do Carson Kelly, but there are options out there.
7. Add a second SP. Mid-rotation is good enough, but another TOR would be fun! This would probably be a FA if the first player was a trade.
8. Re-sign Lopez. He's been nails for the Cubs. He shouldn't cost a fortune to retain.

I think that's probably it? For the young guys, I'd be trading away a couple to get the starter. I'd bring up Shaw to start the year and Zobrist him into the lineup to start the year and figure it out as we go based on performances and health. Even if we miss on Soto and Bellinger comes back, I'd expect a better offense. A full season of Paredes, PCA being comfortable the whole year and the upgrade at catcher should take care of that. 

Starting pitching should be very solid with NewGuy#1, Steele, Shota, NewGuy#2, Assad/Brown/Wicks/Wesneski/Horton. Relief should also be solid to really good with the additions, Hodge, Lopez, Miller, non-Staters, 2024 injured guys coming back, etc. So even if we have injuries, there's a lot of depth there to make it work.

I'd think that's a 90+ win team. Add Soto in place of Bellinger and it's a really damn good team.

Appreciate the thought put into this post.

I would project Bellinger for around 3.3 WAR next year if he can stay in RF the whole year, plus he gets some added value tacked on for being able to play 1B well plus the other OF positions as backup, which doesn't show up in his WAR.  I'd project Soto for around 6.0 to 6.5 WAR,  So Soto adds about 3 wins to this team over Bellinger.  He'd be a very nice addition but yeah we need more improvements, we'd still only be about an 86-win team which is still a borderline wildcard team.

Catcher, SP, the pen, and ideally another bat upgrade somewhere definitely look like a priority.

[Stratos]

Assad is tied for the most starts for a SP on the Cubs, and has a 3.34 ERA.  He has a career 3.20 ERA in 289 IP.

I wonder how much the Cubs defense especially up the middle has benefited him?  Does he induce a lot of double-plays?  He has that good sinker.  His LOB% has also been consistently high every season, maybe its not a fluke? 

[Cuzi]

For the trade for a TOR SP crowd, who are you looking at that is better than Steele and/or Imanaga that is potentially available in trade and at a cost the Cubs can afford in prospects?

I can only come up with 4 and all but one is coming with only 1 year of control. Garrett Crochet, Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Framber Valdez.

Every one of those guys is going to cost a pretty nice prospect, if not multiple pretty nice prospects, in return for a very short window of opportunity, Crochet being the only one I would consider over trading those prospects for a bat on a 1 year deal.

There's 4 pitchers going into FA that you could argue in various ways would be #1 on the Cubs. Jack Flaherty, Yusei Kikuchi, Max Fried, and Nathan Eovaldi. Which pitcher are you trading for that is potentially available in trade that is better than them at a cost the Cubs can afford in prospects?

I would much rather sign one of the FAs to a modest deal. Probably not going to be Flaherty even though he probably fits the Cubs MO the most, I just think he'll get a deal that would make me uncomfortable betting on 1 year of success following multiple years of failure, similar to how teams viewed Bellinger last season. And then use tier 2 prospects to trade for a guy like Reid Detmers to fill in the back of the rotation. Then I still have my tier 1 prospects to go after a bat and/or catcher.

Edited September 22, 2024 by Cuzi

[Stratos]

17 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Also offense is down league wide(only 35 qualifiers have an .800+ OPS), and Wrigley in particular has been brutal this year(29th park factor for runs in front of only Safeco).

Last year there were 51 qualified players with at least a .800 OPS.

OPS in the MLB is down around 20 points.  .734 in 2023 vs .712 this year.

[muntjack]

6 hours ago, Stratos said:

The Brewers are 7th in MLB in runs scored, 10th in wRC+, and have the best mbaserunning in the MLB and best defense in the NL.  They're 6th in MLB in WAR.  Their defense has definitely helped their pitching and team ERA.

I'm not sure what you mean by "variance" regarding the Brewers, are you saying they've been lucky?

I'm just saying that them being 7th in runs scored despite not having a particularly loaded lineup is partially due to variance.  Sequencing, luck, clutchness, however you look at it.   The fact that people here are gnashing teeth over the offense and the pitching, yet, as you just laid out, it's been their baserunning and defense (also strengths of the Cubs) that have helped Milwaukee run away with things.  

[CubinNY]

1 hour ago, muntjack said:

I'm just saying that them being 7th in runs scored despite not having a particularly loaded lineup is partially due to variance.  Sequencing, luck, clutchness, however you look at it.   The fact that people here are gnashing teeth over the offense and the pitching, yet, as you just laid out, it's been their baserunning and defense (also strengths of the Cubs) that have helped Milwaukee run away with things.  

lol

[Tim]

18 hours ago, Stratos said:

Appreciate the thought put into this post.

I would project Bellinger for around 3.3 WAR next year if he can stay in RF the whole year, plus he gets some added value tacked on for being able to play 1B well plus the other OF positions as backup, which doesn't show up in his WAR.  I'd project Soto for around 6.0 to 6.5 WAR,  So Soto adds about 3 wins to this team over Bellinger.  He'd be a very nice addition but yeah we need more improvements, we'd still only be about an 86-win team which is still a borderline wildcard team.

Catcher, SP, the pen, and ideally another bat upgrade somewhere definitely look like a priority.

I understand why you're saying the Cubs are currently an 83 win team. If they finish 3-3 against Philly & Washington, they'll literally be an 83 win team. But I'd argue there are good reasons to suggest the baseline is higher than that.

1. By pythagorean wins, they're currently 14 games above .500, which would put them at 88 wins with neutral luck
2. They had a crapload of injuries early in the year
3. They've played much better in the second half since they got a bit healthier, PCA matured his approach, and we swapped out Morel for Paredes
4. While I feel like I say this in the second half of every year, they should have much better bullpen options to start the season next year and seem to have found a legit closer in Hodge

But I still agree with the overall point. They need to do more than just add a big bat, even if that big bat is Soto.

[Tim]

19 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I’m mostly confident the Mariners will move Logan Gilbert this offseason. He’s the pipedream arm for this rotation: right health, right power, right variety, right contract, right age yada yada 

 

Why would they trade their best pitcher?

[Cuzi]

1 hour ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I’m mostly confident the Mariners will move Logan Gilbert this offseason. He’s the pipedream arm for this rotation: right health, right power, right variety, right contract, right age yada yada 

 

Sounds like a whole lot of reasons a playoff caliber team wont trade him.

[Bertz]

Even setting the Cubs of it all aside TT's Luis Castillo trade idea feels the most right from the Mariners POV.

If I'm Jerry DiPoto and my seat is getting a little warm, turning around and immediately throwing Castillo's salary at a bat (probably Alex Bregman) is far preferable to the extra prospect oomf you get from trading one of the younger guys.

[Cuzi]

14 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Even setting the Cubs of it all aside TT's Luis Castillo trade idea feels the most right from the Mariners POV.

If I'm Jerry DiPoto and my seat is getting a little warm, turning around and immediately throwing Castillo's salary at a bat (probably Alex Bregman) is far preferable to the extra prospect oomf you get from trading one of the younger guys.

Castillo signed an extension with the Mariners and has a full NTC through 2025.

Edited September 23, 2024 by Cuzi

[Cuzi]

8 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

The same reasons anyone else would trade a pitcher in 2024? He’s Aging and getting more expensive, two of the worst things pretty much anyone can do. Throw in that 20 minutes ago their best pitcher was Kirby, 20 mins before that Castillo, and all they’d be doing is moving from a position of strength 

The Mariners have made the playoffs once in the past gazillion years and, other than Crochet after not being moved at the deadline, all pitchers you mentioned are on playoff teams. What makes him less likely than Framber, Cease, King? 

Edit: He’s also the only Mariners ace to actually even be mentioned in trade rumors including the Cardinals last year 

You really dont understand why pitchers on 1 year deals would be more available in trade than a guy going into arb 1?

[Cuzi]

If the Mariners are trading any of their pitchers for a bat its between Miller and Woo. Gilbert isn't going anywhere for anything short of Jackson Holliday.

[Cuzi]

6 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Why would they trade dirt cheap, quality arms like Woo and Miller? Miller’s 2.6 fWAR this year is right in bottom line with any other season of Gilbert’s career, and this year’s peak of 4 fWAR  is hardly what fans and media are trained to celebrate as elite (esp now that he can start asking for money)

The trade cost boogeyman works on others but not I. I was here when Cubs fans were convinced the Phillies would only take all the Kris Bryants (a superior prospect to Holliday) out there for Hamels. Never once has the bite been as bad as the bark

You act like Gilbert isn't dirt cheap. Compare their baseball savant pages and get back to me on Bryce Miller's WAR.

[Cuzi]

You dont understand the significance of a guy that's pitching like a legit ace versus a guy who's living on his ability to limit walks?

Bryce Miller does nothing special beyond throwing strikes. He's not like Kirby that is making guys chase. He doesn't generate swing and miss. He doesn't induce weak contact. He's simply an ok pitcher that isn't going to give up a free base.

A guy like Miller's profile probably gets mid to upper teens on the open market. Gilbert is gonna get $30M pitching like he has this year. Even at league minimum for Miller, Gilbert is by far the better value.

[Cuzi]

5 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

What are you addressing here? One second you’re saying they can get what they want for Miller, the next he’s smoke and mirrors. I’m already at Gilbert being the better value hence the interest in specifically him during this specific window for both orgs (or yes, Kirby, a much more popular/less controversial first time arb SP than Gilbert in that org’s fiefdom who also coincidentally has one extra season of control)

When have I ever said the Mariners can get what they want for Miller?

Can you keep track of anything? I said they can get anything they want for Gilbert... not Miller. Go back and actually read what I said. I said IFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF the Mariners are going to be trading one of their pitchers, it's going to be Miller versus Woo.

Edited September 23, 2024 by Cuzi

[Cuzi]

Thank you for reminding me who I'm talking with. I didn't limit Gilbert to Jackson Holliday, clown. I said "anything short of Jackson Holliday." That means he's the floor. The Cubs aren't competing in that ballpark.

Chiefs game just ended. Time for bed.

Edited September 23, 2024 by Cuzi

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Tim said:

I understand why you're saying the Cubs are currently an 83 win team. If they finish 3-3 against Philly & Washington, they'll literally be an 83 win team. But I'd argue there are good reasons to suggest the baseline is higher than that.

1. By pythagorean wins, they're currently 14 games above .500, which would put them at 88 wins with neutral luck
2. They had a crapload of injuries early in the year
3. They've played much better in the second half since they got a bit healthier, PCA matured his approach, and we swapped out Morel for Paredes
4. While I feel like I say this in the second half of every year, they should have much better bullpen options to start the season next year and seem to have found a legit closer in Hodge

But I still agree with the overall point. They need to do more than just add a big bat, even if that big bat is Soto.

I don't think the pythagorean wins applies much to the Cubs this year or last year because both years we rightfully underperformed our pythagorean wins because we put up a ton of our total runs and blew out teams over only 1 or 2 months (it was basically just August and some of Sept this year) and much of the rest of the year we didn't have a good offense.

This offense seems to have a distribution problem, and if they're only going to show up in the summer this team isn't going anywhere.  Last year I thought it was a fluke but the fact that it happened again makes me wonder if a pattern is forming.  Who knows.

Based on the 2nd half last year I thought the Cubs would have a solid offense this year.  It didn't happen.  So i'm not going to extrapolate anything about next year based on our 2nd half, other than PCA has hopefully turned a corner with his adjustments and can improve on his first half next season.

I thought overall this season we did fairly well on the injury front and I don't expect to do better there next year.  We should get more WAR out of 3B, and it'll be pretty hard to be as bad at catcher as well.  If we can get just 2.0 WAR out of both 3B and C in 2025 (which would still be below-average at those positions) that's an improvement of almost 5 wins over this year.

Improving by 2.0 WAR each at 3B and C plus getting an extra 1.0 WAR out of PCA and replacing Bellinger with Soto (long-shot) would improve us by 8 wins, bringing us to 91 wins if we assume we're a 83-win team.  If no Soto then it would be nice to find a few more wins somewhere else.  The Hendricks/Smyly/Mancini/Barnhart money comes off the books, that's around 35m i think?

[squally1313]

7 hours ago, Stratos said:

don't think the pythagorean wins applies much to the Cubs this year or last year because both years we rightfully underperformed our pythagorean wins because we put up a ton of our total runs and blew out teams over only 1 or 2 months (it was basically just August and some of Sept this year) and much of the rest of the year we didn't have a good offense.

I'm not outright dismissing your point here because it's becoming a bit of a pattern, but another way of looking at this is that individual hitters, by nature, are going to have good and bad stretches over the course of the year and for the last two years we've had all our hitters essentially get hot at once. I don't know how you gameplan in the offseason to fix that problem, there doesn't seem to be any way to correct it/predict it. I don't really buy into like, one player's success rubbing off on another's.....they're all individual players going through individual events. There's maybe some marginal benefit to the rest of your team putting up an 8 run lead and letting you face their center fielder on the mound, but that's minimal at best. So maybe it is a bit of unluckiness that gets reflected in the pythag numbers?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Pythagorean record isn't gospel, but 'their pythag record is inflated because they only blew out teams for a certain portion of the year' is kinda missing the point of pythagorean record.

[Bertz]

One thing I'd like to see the team be sure to do that doesn't get talked about much is add a quality infielder.  The starting infield is great, you'd probably project 12+ WAR just from the starters next year.  Only ten teams did that this year, and a handful of those are just one guy doing all the heavy lifting (e.g. Bobby Witt earning 10 of the Royals 16 WAR).  

There's also great depth at Iowa.  Shaw, Triantos, and Ballesteros are all super talented and not far off.  Shaw especially is close enough if there was an injury during spring training next year I wouldn't be *that* worried about stepping in for a few weeks.

But the bench, it's real bad.  Wisdom’s a decent player with a limited skillset that doesn't fit this roster that well.  Every other backup infielder in the org such as Mastro, Madrigal, Vazquez give no current indication they can hit a lick.  The team could use that righty 1B to better shield Busch, and it *needs* someone capable of stepping in at 2B and 3B.  Ideally that latter guy would be a lefty, though I'm not sure who that'd be as there aren't as many obvious options if we limit ourselves to lefties.