General Offseason Priorities

[squally1313]

7 minutes ago, 731.4life said:

If Bellinger opts in, then how about trade him to Colorado? 

He'll hit in Colorado, the Rockies only have Doyle in center field, but will have Condon coming up in their system, so they need another outfielder. Blackmon will be 39 during the middle of next season. However, McMahon will be 30, Rodgers will be 29, Toglia will be 27, and Tovar will be 24.

I think Colorado can use another offensive bat and it fills a need at outfield/DH for the short term. If Bellinger performs well, then he can play himself out of Colorado by either trade or opt out.

The time for the Rockies to get going is now.

The Rockies are 26 games out of a playoff spot. They are certainly not in a position to give up resources for a late 20s outfielder essentially making $60m over the next two years. 

[Cuzi]

If the Cubs ate a hefty chunk of Bellinger's contract, the Royals would be a team that would probably have interest. Of course, even eating a sizeable chunk of his contract isn't going to return much.

Maybe you swing for a guy like Steven Zobac who had a good year in AA with the fastball-slider combo this organization covets.

Edited September 20, 2024 by Cuzi

[731.4life]

19 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

The Rockies are 26 games out of a playoff spot. They are certainly not in a position to give up resources for a late 20s outfielder essentially making $60m over the next two years. 

Then will when the Rockies compete? 

[Tim]

Just thinking about my overall priorities for the offseason:

1. Sign Soto. He becomes the top/middle of the lineup anchor for years. He gets his own category here. I don't necessarily think the Cubs have to go get a "big bat", but if you can get Soto out of NY, you do it. I'd break the $500m level to get him. Maybe something like a 13/$520M offer? I'd go even higher if I could use the Ohtani trick and defer some of it. For me, Soto is the most "duh" combination of age, past performance, projected performance, etc. of any FA in many years (non-Ohtani category).
2. Top of rotation SP. Our best pitchers have health / durability concerns. We have no middle of the rotation going into next year. Literally every young pitcher we hoped would establish themselves have had injury concerns. I'd probably look to do a trade here to get this pitcher.
3. Bullpen anchor: It doesn't have to be a "closer", but someone that is going to be a really good bet to be a damn good pitcher.
4. Talk Bellinger into staying if you don't land Soto. I'm not enamored enough with the other bat options at the top of the market that I'd value their performances enough more than Bellinger to commit the years to them. I don't think Vlad Jr will actually be on the market and I'm not sure I'd want to extend him at the likely cost. 
5. If Bellinger opts out, then look into trading for Rooker, signing Santander, etc.
6. Upgrade at catcher. I'd do Carson Kelly, but there are options out there.
7. Add a second SP. Mid-rotation is good enough, but another TOR would be fun! This would probably be a FA if the first player was a trade.
8. Re-sign Lopez. He's been nails for the Cubs. He shouldn't cost a fortune to retain.

I think that's probably it? For the young guys, I'd be trading away a couple to get the starter. I'd bring up Shaw to start the year and Zobrist him into the lineup to start the year and figure it out as we go based on performances and health. Even if we miss on Soto and Bellinger comes back, I'd expect a better offense. A full season of Paredes, PCA being comfortable the whole year and the upgrade at catcher should take care of that. 

Starting pitching should be very solid with NewGuy#1, Steele, Shota, NewGuy#2, Assad/Brown/Wicks/Wesneski/Horton. Relief should also be solid to really good with the additions, Hodge, Lopez, Miller, non-Staters, 2024 injured guys coming back, etc. So even if we have injuries, there's a lot of depth there to make it work.

I'd think that's a 90+ win team. Add Soto in place of Bellinger and it's a really damn good team.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, 731.4life said:

Flaherty is going to have probably the most important postseason for an upcoming free agent player. He faded last year in Baltimore and was a disappointment. He can't do that again this year, and if he does, it'll be tough to get a good 3-4 year contract on him.

If the Cubs are going to add a starting pitcher(and they really should) Flaherty wouldn’t be my first choice. I would rather they traded for a young starter, or someone like Castillo or signed someone other than Flaherty. Just not a big fan of his. And doesn’t he have some medicals some teams were afraid of? 

[Tim]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

If the Cubs are going to add a starting pitcher(and they really should) Flaherty wouldn’t be my first choice. I would rather they traded for a young starter, or someone like Castillo or signed someone other than Flaherty. Just not a big fan of his. And doesn’t he have some medicals some teams were afraid of? 

He had significant issues in 2021 & 2022. He looked somewhat washed last year and he's still down a tick or so from his peak. But he sure seems to have adjusted well to his new stuff. 30.1% k and 5.6% bb will get it done. I think he's a target because his performance this year is damn good, he's still only 28, but because of those issues he probably won't get a long-term deal.

He's a good Jed-style, High AAV, shorter term contract target.

[Tim]

Meant to add...

If we trade for a really good starter who is still cheap, I'd really love to target Flaherty as the FA acquisition.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Just now, Tim said:

He had significant issues in 2021 & 2022. He looked somewhat washed last year and he's still down a tick or so from his peak. But he sure seems to have adjusted well to his new stuff. 30.1% k and 5.6% bb will get it done. I think he's a target because his performance this year is damn good, he's still only 28, but because of those issues he probably won't get a long-term deal.

He's a good Jed-style, High AAV, shorter term contract target.

Not having a QO, he will have a ton of suitors, and will be right up Jed's alley. I wouldn't be surprised if the Dodgers sign him though.

[Bertz]

Making some ill-advised Bellinger trade feels like a real missing the forest for the trees deal.  I would like to add some power to this team, but three wins coming from a well rounded skillset of power/contact/defense vs. three wins from mostly just power is at the end of the day a mostly lateral move.  Paying down Bellinger's contract in a desperation trade very very quickly erases any benefits.

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Tim said:

He had significant issues in 2021 & 2022. He looked somewhat washed last year and he's still down a tick or so from his peak. But he sure seems to have adjusted well to his new stuff. 30.1% k and 5.6% bb will get it done. I think he's a target because his performance this year is damn good, he's still only 28, but because of those issues he probably won't get a long-term deal.

He's a good Jed-style, High AAV, shorter term contract target.

I thought there was a report at the deadline that’s team, maybe the Orioles, were concerned with his medicals. Maybe I am wrong. That said, yiu make good points. He is just someone I am not a fan of. Maybe because of all those cardinal years!!! I am sure if they signed him in a 4 year deal I would come around to him. I just refer other options. Like I said, this could just be me talking as a fan. 

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Making some ill-advised Bellinger trade feels like a real missing the forest for the trees deal.  I would like to add some power to this team, but three wins coming from a well rounded skillset of power/contact/defense vs. three wins from mostly just power is at the end of the day a mostly lateral move.  Paying down Bellinger's contract in a desperation trade very very quickly erases any benefits.

So are you for the 9 guys for 8 positions idea if Bellinger doesn’t opt out? Or do you have someone else you would like to trade. I honestly would rather see him opt out, but if he doesn’t, I think the 9 guys for 8 positions can work. And lastly, if he does opt out and they have almost $80M to spend, I agree with whoever mentioned that instead of spreading it around the should spend on 2 big moves. That would be Soto and Burnes/Snell/Fried/Flaherty(I guess). If they aren’t going to use the money they have, plus Bellinger’s money to upgrade both the offense and pitching I would rather he just stays. 

[Tim]

Adding to my previous post to put actual names with things...

Leaving off Soto, because I think one of the NY teams will drop $600m on him:

• Trade for Crochet (3 top 100-ish propects, all MLB-ready, Alcantara/Caissie/Triantos)
• Let's just say Robertson
• Bellinger stays
• Sign Carson Kelly
• Sign Flaherty

That's a do-able offseason. 1 trade, 1 opt-in, 1 extension, & three FA.

On offense, we'd have the following all reasonably projected at 3+ WAR:

• Happ
• Swanson
• Hoerner
• Seiya
• PCA
• Paredes

The other positions would project to 2+ WAR:

• Bellinger
• Busch
• Kelly/Amaya

Bench would be catcher + Shaw + Tauchman + whomever. To start the year, Shaw gets a Zobrist role to insert into the lineup depending on injuries, resting starters, matchups, performance, etc. That's probably a 25+ WAR team and top 5-10 lineups in baseball. Add Soto in place of Bellinger and it is probably a 28+ WAR team and top 5.

Starting pitching would be damn good:

• Steele
• Crochet
• Shota
• Flaherty
• Taillon
• Brown / Assad / Wicks / Wesneski / Horton

Relievers would be deep and strong at the top:

• Robertson
• Hodge
• Lopez
• Miller
• Merryweather
• Pearson
• Little
• Roberts
• Almonte
• Keegan
• Neely
• Palencia
• Adbert
• Brown / Assad / Wicks / Wesneski
• Rookies

That's an easy 90 win team and could push 95, IMO.

Edited September 21, 2024 by Tim
Forgot Taillon

[Bertz]

8 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

So are you for the 9 guys for 8 positions idea if Bellinger doesn’t opt out? Or do you have someone else you would like to trade. I honestly would rather see him opt out, but if he doesn’t, I think the 9 guys for 8 positions can work. And lastly, if he does opt out and they have almost $80M to spend, I agree with whoever mentioned that instead of spreading it around the should spend on 2 big moves. That would be Soto and Burnes/Snell/Fried/Flaherty(I guess). If they aren’t going to use the money they have, plus Bellinger’s money to upgrade both the offense and pitching I would rather he just stays. 

I mean 10 guys for 9 positions (including DH) is what any team that wants to legitimately compete should strive for.  

But on Bellinger specifically, him opting in is not ideal but ultimately fine.  There is increased pressure to add power in other places, for instance Carson Kelly loses some appeal at catcher.  But ultimately you shouldn't make any rash decisions because you're "stuck" with Bellinger's 20 homerun bat instead of the 30 homerun bat you're hoping for.

[Irrelevant Dude]

Interesting quote from Counsell that was played on The Score after today's game 

It was part of the comments where Counsell was talking about how there is a big gap between the Brewers and the Cubs, but then he went on to say they need to be trying to build "90 win teams." Whether or not that was a veiled shot at the front office, it is clear that the Cubs have not been operating under that model.  Jed built an 80-85 win team that would have needed absolutely everything to go right to get close to 90 wins.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Am I the only one interested in Minter?

[Tim]

2 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Am I the only one interested in Minter?

I wouldn't mind him if there's room in the budget. 

[Andy]

2 hours ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Interesting quote from Counsell that was played on The Score after today's game 

It was part of the comments where Counsell was talking about how there is a big gap between the Brewers and the Cubs, but then he went on to say they need to be trying to build "90 win teams." Whether or not that was a veiled shot at the front office, it is clear that the Cubs have not been operating under that model.  Jed built an 80-85 win team that would have needed absolutely everything to go right to get close to 90 wins.

Mooney wrote about that on The Athletic. Easily my favorite thing Counsell has done or said in 10 months as manager.

[Rcal10]

5 hours ago, Bertz said:

I mean 10 guys for 9 positions (including DH) is what any team that wants to legitimately compete should strive for.  

But on Bellinger specifically, him opting in is not ideal but ultimately fine.  There is increased pressure to add power in other places, for instance Carson Kelly loses some appeal at catcher.  But ultimately you shouldn't make any rash decisions because you're "stuck" with Bellinger's 20 homerun bat instead of the 30 homerun bat you're hoping for.

I’m not counting the catcher. That is a seperate entity. So basically we are saying the same thing. 9 guys handle all positions except catcher. 2 guys split the catchers sure. 

[Rcal10]

5 hours ago, Tim said:

Adding to my previous post to put actual names with things...

Leaving off Soto, because I think one of the NY teams will drop $600m on him:

• Trade for Crochet (3 top 100-ish propects, all MLB-ready, Alcantara/Caissie/Triantos)
• Let's just say Robertson
• Bellinger stays
• Sign Carson Kelly
• Sign Flaherty

That's a do-able offseason. 1 trade, 1 opt-in, 1 extension, & three FA.

On offense, we'd have the following all reasonably projected at 3+ WAR:

• Happ
• Swanson
• Hoerner
• Seiya
• PCA
• Paredes

The other positions would project to 2+ WAR:

• Bellinger
• Busch
• Kelly/Amaya

Bench would be catcher + Shaw + Tauchman + whomever. To start the year, Shaw gets a Zobrist role to insert into the lineup depending on injuries, resting starters, matchups, performance, etc. That's probably a 25+ WAR team and top 5-10 lineups in baseball. Add Soto in place of Bellinger and it is probably a 28+ WAR team and top 5.

Starting pitching would be damn good:

• Steele
• Crochet
• Shota
• Flaherty
• Brown / Assad / Wicks / Wesneski / Horton

Relievers would be deep and strong at the top:

• Robertson
• Hodge
• Lopez
• Miller
• Merryweather
• Pearson
• Little
• Roberts
• Almonte
• Keegan
• Neely
• Palencia
• Adbert
• Brown / Assad / Wicks / Wesneski
• Rookies

That's an easy 90 win team and could push 95, IMO.

I don’t want Crotchet. I think he is an arm surgery waiting to happen. But other than that I don’t mind the idea. Just trade those guys for a different high end young pitcher.!

[Tim]

8 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t want Crotchet. I think he is an arm surgery waiting to happen. But other than that I don’t mind the idea. Just trade those guys for a different high end young pitcher.!

I get that. Name another such SP that we know will be available.

[Rcal10]

41 minutes ago, Tim said:

I get that. Name another such SP that we know will be available.

I don’t know who, but you also don’t know if the Sox will trade Crochett either. We all just make educated guesses on who might be available. Maybe one of the young starters on the Mariners. Maybe Skubal. A pitcher in the Marlins (Cabrera). Keller of the Pirates. Those are just some off the top of my head. I am sure there are others. I get Crochett is a huge talent. But I just see arm problems plaguing him at some point. I can’t deny he is very talented. Also, if they did sign a quality starter as a FA I am not sure they have to aim as high as Crochett. As I said, maybe they deal for a lesser young pitcher for the MOR. They also then give up less. 

[Tim]

9 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t know who, but you also don’t know if the Sox will trade Crochett either. We all just make educated guesses on who might be available. Maybe one of the young starters on the Mariners. Maybe Skubal. A pitcher in the Marlins (Cabrera). Keller of the Pirates. Those are just some off the top of my head. I am sure there are others. I get Crochett is a huge talent. But I just see arm problems plaguing him at some point. I can’t deny he is very talented. Also, if they did sign a quality starter as a FA I am not sure they have to aim as high as Crochett. As I said, maybe they deal for a lesser young pitcher for the MOR. They also then give up less. 

Personal preference, but I hate long-term deals for pitchers. I'd rather deal for the TOR pitcher and sign the FA to a shorter deal. 

[Stratos]

On 9/17/2024 at 11:31 AM, Tim said:

Now, I've been saying all this about prioritizing pitching while in my head assuming that there's a second catcher in place. Upgrading that position is probably more important than any other move this offseason, even if there's high confidence that second half Amaya is future Amaya.

Amaya has been having his worst offensive month of the year this Sept.  He might do a bit better next year overall but I'm not confident he's magically a fundamentally different hitter now because of 2 hot months and the Cubs would be unwise to go into 2025 on that assumption.  Since he only starts half the games as a catcher those 2 hot months equaled only about 100 AB's anyways, a small sample to draw any conclusions.

If we look at Amaya's slash lines this year and last year they're almost identical.  He typically hit for low AVG in the minors too and given his speed that's just probably never going to change.  His walk rate both this year and last year are below league average.  His .ISO in the minors were consistently average at best, the only hope being his bat speed is above average per statcast.

I think it's most wise to assume that this is who Amaya is unless he puts up an overall season proving otherwise.  The icing on the cake is his framing is below average and he's near bottom of the MLB at throwing guys out in a new SB era where the league SB rate has increased by around 60% since the rule changes.

[Stratos]

Most of us naturally think the offense has been the weak link this year, but what if it actually doesn't really matter much which area we improve between pitching vs offense vs defense?  At the end of the day we need to improve our run differential and just get better as a team, why does it matter if we score more runs vs giving up fewer runs?

This leads of course to the value and efficiency arguments that fans mock about Jed all offseason with his signings.

The Cubs had a .512 winning % last year and have a .513% this year.  We didn't improve.  We replaced Stroman with Imanaga, didn't improve the pen, and brought back the same lineup plus added Busch but Swanson/Nico/Morel regressed offensively.

Our position guys have some WAR but we only have 2 players with an OPS over .800, no elite hitter, and 5 guys in the everyday lineup with a season OPS under .700.

Both this year and last our offense and bullpen only seem to show up in the summer and then are M.I.A. 

[Bertz]

This is another reason I'm not going to lose sleep if we end up with a more well rounded outfielder than a pure DH.  I don't think that Seiya is a better hitter as a DH than as an OF, but it does appear that he's not worse.  And that is a skill, most guys are worse or just straight up don't like to play it except as an occasional half day off.  For example, Vlad Jr.:

Overall - 137 wRC+ career, 167 in '24

As DH - 121 career, 131 in '24

Anthony Santander:

Overall - 113 career, 131 in '24

As DH - 92 career, 95 in '24

Pete Alonso (only one game at DH this year so just career):

Overall - 132

As DH - 111

It's not everyone.  Teoscar Hernandez is fine at DH.  Juan Soto unsurprisingly excels at DH.  But just a consideration before we go completely moving around the defense like it's MLB the show.