General Offseason Priorities

[We Got The Whole 9]

44 minutes ago, Tim said:

If Little doesn't come back strong, who is the next best option against lefties?

Really want to sign Scott and Minter 

[Cuzi]

Ketel Marte has played 5 full seasons for the Dbacks. In 3 of those seasons he's had a 140+ wRC+. Time to give him a little respect.

The bullpen needed an upgrade over historically worst in history.

I refuse to believe the difference between the offense and a playoff caliber team is a couple rookies coming off the bench.

Edited September 17, 2024 by Cuzi

[Tim]

13 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Who is to say that Shaw or Caissie will be any better?

You can probably make a solid case for Shaw being an upgrade, given the alternatives are rock bottom. But are we convinced that Caissie will be an upgrade over Tauchman?

You can keep five OF given the positional flexibility on the roster. Tauchman can stay in his current role. 

[Cuzi]

3 minutes ago, Tim said:

You can keep five OF given the positional flexibility on the roster. Tauchman can stay in his current role. 

If Tauchman stays in his current role, when is Caissie ever going to play? He'll be the outfield version of Patrick Wisdom.

Edited September 17, 2024 by Cuzi

[Tim]

2 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

If Tauchman stays in his current role, when is Caissie ever going to play? He'll be the outfield version of Patrick Wisdom.

Tauchman has been almost purely a PH in the second half. He has 11 PA this month so far.

[Cuzi]

2 minutes ago, Tim said:

Tauchman has been almost purely a PH in the second half. He has 11 PA this month so far.

That's not an argument for Caissie getting PA's.

Tauchman hasn't played much because he's a 5th outfielder and PCA has turned into that guy. If Bellinger does not opt out, trade either Bellinger or Caissie.

Edited September 17, 2024 by Cuzi

[We Got The Whole 9]

Just now, Cuzi said:

Ketel Marte has played 5 full seasons for the Dbacks. In 3 of those seasons he's had a 140+ wRC+. Time to give him a little respect.

All I said is their top producing hitter came from an unexpected source. That's a fact.

[squally1313]

16 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

I refuse to believe the difference between the offense and a playoff caliber team is a couple rookies coming off the bench.

• Cubs: .243/.318/.397
• Royals: .253/.310/.416
• Cleveland: .238/.309/.395
• Braves: .240/.306/.408

Second half numbers are even better. To be fair, there's a huge gap to the elites of the world. But there's a lot of argument for this being a playoff caliber offense right now. 

[squally1313]

9 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

All I said is their top producing hitter came from an unexpected source. That's a fact.

Preseason projections for the Diamondbacks by wRC:

1. Carroll 123
2. Marte 121
3. Walker 113
4. Pederson 113

[Cuzi]

4 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

• Cubs: .243/.318/.397
• Royals: .253/.310/.416
• Cleveland: .238/.309/.395
• Braves: .240/.306/.408

Second half numbers are even better. To be fair, there's a huge gap to the elites of the world. But there's a lot of argument for this being a playoff caliber offense right now. 

#RunItBack #UHave2CIt

[Backtobanks]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

While I agree the Cubs need another bat, I don’t really know where they put it if Bellinger doesn’t opt out. Maybe catcher, but how many big bats are there at that position? If they came back with the same offense and upgrade thr right handed platoon guy from Wisdom I think the offense would be much better. A full year of PCA and Paredes helps some and maybe a better bat behind the plate. But if they add at least a MOR to even a TOR starter they then can win with pitching and defense. Throw in adding a pen arm and you can win with that offense, IMO. 
Now, if Bellinger opts out I am all for a major upgrade of the offense. 

Go all out for Vlad in a trade and use Busch as super utility.  If the asking price on Robert has come down, I would love to swing a mega deal for Crochett and Robert as DH.

[CubinNY]

26 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

#RunItBack #UHave2CIt

It would be unwise but expected for the Cubs to run this same team back out next year hoping for good health and some good breaks looking to be competitive until the trade deadline and see what is available. 

Obviously not the EXACT some team for the pedantic ones. 

[Cuzi]

9 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

It would be unwise but expected for the Cubs to run this same team back out next year hoping for good health and some good breaks looking to be competitive until the trade deadline and see what is available. 

Obviously not the EXACT some team for the pedantic ones. 

I was more just mocking the list which only included 50% of teams that would be in the playoffs if it started today and one of those teams benefiting heavily from having the White Sox in their division.

The Royals are +2.5 games in the WC race with a 12-1 record against a historically bad team. Even a merely bad White Sox team knocks the Royals out of the playoffs.

For the most part I expect the Cubs to have mainly the same lineup. Mostly because I don't expect them to make a play for Soto in FA, or trade for Tucker, or trade for Vlad, or trade Hoerner. Just about the only question for this lineup going into 2025 is whether or not Bellinger opts out. If Bellinger doesn't opt out then the lineup is mostly set in stone besides catcher. Bellinger would be the everyday RFer and Suzuki would become the everyday DH.

Edited September 17, 2024 by Cuzi

[Tryptamine]

17 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

Go all out for Vlad in a trade and use Busch as super utility.  If the asking price on Robert has come down, I would love to swing a mega deal for Crochett and Robert as DH.

Who is Robert going to DH over? Assuming Bellinger is here, Seiya is your DH. I'm certainly not reducing Seiya/Busch's ABs so I can give them to Robert.

[CubinNY]

5 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

I was more just mocking the list which only included 50% of teams that would be in the playoffs if it started today and one of those teams benefiting heavily from having the White Sox in their division.

The Royals are +2.5 games in the WC race with a 12-1 record against a historically bad team. Even a merely bad White Sox team knocks the Royals out of the playoffs.

For the most part I expect the Cubs to have mainly the same lineup. Mostly because I don't expect them to make a play for Soto in FA, or trade for Tucker, or trade for Vlad, or trade Hoerner. Just about the only question for this lineup going into 2025 is whether or not Bellinger opts out. If Bellinger doesn't opt out then the lineup is mostly set in stone besides catcher. Bellinger would be the everyday RFer and Suzuki would become the everyday DH.

I would expect the same results if not worse. They've wasted good to great years by Imanaga and JaMo. Jed got them stuck in 2nd gear and there they shall remain. They have an incredibly inefficient team that is mediocre and people are crowing that Swanson finally decided to show up after the season is over, metaphorically. Besides PCA who is likely to get better? Maybe Busch and Amaya. Hey, let's get to 88 wins and see what happens. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Besides PCA who is likely to get better?

Full season of PCA, full season of (good) Paredes, non-negative value from backup catcher, Swanson and Nico are likely marginally better offensively, Amaya may exceed 82 wRC+/0.6 WAR, contributions from the best of the Iowa hitting prospects

[CubinNY]

12 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Full season of PCA, full season of (good) Paredes, non-negative value from backup catcher, Swanson and Nico are likely marginally better offensively, Amaya may exceed 82 wRC+/0.6 WAR, contributions from the best of the Iowa hitting prospects

Yes, a full season of Parades wil help out a lot from the production they got at 3rd + defense. Maybe mediocre wins?

Edited September 17, 2024 by CubinNY

[squally1313]

19 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

I was more just mocking the list which only included 50% of teams that would be in the playoffs if it started today and one of those teams benefiting heavily from having the White Sox in their division.

But the original post was already baking in marginal improvements from having multiple top 100 prospects performing at AAA this year and being ready to take over for the Madrigals and Mastros of the world, and you claiming that wasn't enough to be a playoff caliber offense. We're 11th in offensive fWAR for the whole year and 6th since the ASB. In a 12 team playoff league, that's pretty definitionally a playoff caliber offense. Significant improvements are welcome, of course!

But we're going to end up with a full year slightly above average offense and slightly below average pitching staff, and our near-MLB ready farm system is full of bats and very low on healthy pitching. It's pretty obvious to me which side needs more help. 

[Bertz]

While PCA is the only everyday hitter penciled into the OD lineup young enough to bank on improvement from, none of the starting hitters are old enough to expect more than modest decline.  29-31 is post prime but before sharp decline typically sets in.  Happ/Swanson/Suzuki/Hoerner are going to combine for ~14 WAR this year, and the rough expectation heading into next year is likely going to be a smidge north of 12.

Unless Jed does literally nothing and Mike Tauchman’s an everyday outfielder, the upside from the youths probably outweighs the downside on the vets for another year or two.

Edited September 17, 2024 by Bertz

[squally1313]

We need to get to roughly 850 innings from starters next year. You've got Shota, Steele, Taillon, Assad, let's be aggressive and give them 150 a piece, whether or not we want to or should. Need another 250.

Brown threw 55 innings this year. Wesneski threw 70. Wicks is going to end up around 70. Horton even less. I mean...Caleb Kilian? Brandon Birdsell? We're just going to hope on basically full year health from our top 4 guys and not even really be able to to push anyone back down to the pen to shore up that need? Go get a good starter. 

[Cuzi]

I dont expect Hoyer to do literally nothing, but virtually nothing on the other hand...

My one hope, if Hoyer indeed returns as a lame duck PoBO, is that he looks at his final year under contract and puts his foot on the gas pedal and does something incredible, way beyond his MO of striving for mediocrity and batted ball luck being the ultimate deciding factor.

Edited September 17, 2024 by Cuzi

[Rcal10]

8 minutes ago, Bertz said:

While PCA is the only everyday hitter penciled into the OD lineup young enough to bank on improvement from, none of the starting hitters are old enough to expect more than modest decline.  29-31 is post prime but before sharp decline typically sets in.  Happ/Swanson/Suzuki/Hoerner are going to combine for ~14 WAR this year, and the rough expectation heading into next year is likely going to be a smidge north of 12.

Unless Jed does literally nothing and Mike Tauchman’s an everyday outfielder, the upside from the youths probably outweighs the downside on the vets for another year or two.

I agree with this. I know people are unhappy with the team. But the fact is if they brought the 9 guys back that play pretty much everyday and then added another bat and a decent catcher the offense would be top 8-10 in the game. Maybe better. Play 9 guys in 8 positions and then go between Amaya and whatever catcher they bring in. Trade a few young guys for  a young starter on the Mariners. Sign a pen arm.  The team would have a quality line up, at least one solid bench bat every day, a solid staring rotation and with some luck a good pen. In all honesty this is an 83-86 win team this year. And that is with several very bad losses and without a good PCA for half the year. There is no reason the team can’t be a 90+ win team with the same guys plus what I am suggesting. 
Maybe sign one of the bats a tier below Soto, trade for Woo, Kirby or Miller, maybe trade for O’Hoppe, Raleigh or A’s catcher or if all too expensive in the way of prospects, sign a guy to split time with Amaya. There are a few decent semi regular catchers available. 

[Bertz]

To the broader topic, I think it can be helpful to game these things out.

Let's say for simplicity Cody's gone, Jed's got $80M to spend, isn't willing to trade major prospects, but is willing to eat a qualifying offer.  Would you rather have:

Scenario A (Bats Forward):

- $25M and a QO on Pete Alonso or your favorite non-Soto OF bat

- $8M on Carson Kelly or Danny Jansen

- $15M on premium bench options like Amed Rosario and Carlos Santana

- $20M on Nate Eovaldi or Yusei Kikuchi

- $10M on Kirby Yates or some other quality setup man

Scenario B (Pitching Forward):

- $25 and a QO on Max Fried or comparable

- $15M on a proven closer like Kenley Jansen or David Robertson

- $10M on Kirby Yates or some other quality setup man

- $15M on a pure DH like JDM or Justin Turner

- $8M on Carson Kelly or Danny Jansen

- $5M on bench help, probably a RHH platoon OF like Manny Margot

[Cuzi]

At this point, Jed should be more than willing to trade major prospects and spend. If he's not, find someone else.

[CubinNY]

7 minutes ago, Bertz said:

To the broader topic, I think it can be helpful to game these things out.

Let's say for simplicity Cody's gone, Jed's got $80M to spend, isn't willing to trade major prospects, but is willing to eat a qualifying offer.  Would you rather have:

Scenario A (Bats Forward):

- $25M and a QO on Pete Alonso or your favorite non-Soto OF bat

- $8M on Carson Kelly or Danny Jansen

- $15M on premium bench options like Amed Rosario and Carlos Santana

- $20M on Nate Eovaldi or Yusei Kikuchi

- $10M on Kirby Yates or some other quality setup man

Scenario B (Pitching Forward):

- $25 and a QO on Max Fried or comparable

- $15M on a proven closer like Kenley Jansen or David Robertson

- $10M on Kirby Yates or some other quality setup man

- $15M on a pure DH like JDM or Justin Turner

- $8M on Carson Kelly or Danny Jansen

- $5M on bench help, probably a RHH platoon OF like Manny Margot

A - but with a closer not Jansen or Roberts.