Cubs (Wicks) vs Nationals (Parker): 9/1/24, 12:35pm

[chibears55]

Phillies score in 11th, cubs only 3 back

[JBears79]

13 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Phillies score in 11th, cubs only 3 back

Need the Mets to start losing too

[Derwood]

42 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

Dusty Baker's kid debuted today?

I'm horsefeathers old.

Dusty Baker is like 87 years old. I assume his kid would be in his 50's

[bukie]

14 minutes ago, JBears79 said:

Need the Mets to start losing too

They're going to stop playing the White Sox very soon.

[UMFan83]

36 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Phillies score in 11th, cubs only 3 back

Ok I said I’d pay attention to the playoff standings and allow for some sort of hope if they got to within 3 games and they did so don’t break my heart again Cubs

[bukie]

Fun fact, the Cubs are now more than 40 games better than the White Sox this season.

[Bertz]

Something kind of funny is happening with Dansby Swanson.  He's now after today's game hit the 3 WAR mark for the year.  He is tied with Trea Turner at 3.0 WAR, and both guys are way ahead of Xander Bogaerts' 1.6 (strong consideration for worst contract in baseball).

Carlos Correa played like an MVP the first half of the year and put up 3.6 WAR.  But he's injured with no timetable I can find for a return.  Decent chance he's done for the year.  Both Turner and Swanson likely pass him in that case.

So if Dansby outplays Turner over the next month he probably has the best year from his little FA SS cohort even after the rough first half.

[NorthsideAvenger]

Maybe someone who is far more knowledgeable about tiebreakers can correct me but does the Braves/Mets/Padres hold the tiebreaker over the Cubs due to the season series and the Diamonbacks hold the tiebreaker over the Cubs because of their better intradivision record?

[chibears55]

7 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

Ok I said I’d pay attention to the playoff standings and allow for some sort of hope if they got to within 3 games and they did so don’t break my heart again Cubs

They need to survive the Yankees and Dodgers, if they can stay within 3 after those series, I'll like their chances of catching the Braves. 

[Brian707]

10 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Phillies score in 11th, cubs only 3 back

[Rcal10]

5 hours ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

Maybe someone who is far more knowledgeable about tiebreakers can correct me but does the Braves/Mets/Padres hold the tiebreaker over the Cubs due to the season series and the Diamonbacks hold the tiebreaker over the Cubs because of their better intradivision record?

Yes to everything. Cubs lose ALL tiebreakers. 

[Rcal10]

5 hours ago, chibears55 said:

They need to survive the Yankees and Dodgers, if they can stay within 3 after those series, I'll like their chances of catching the Braves. 

I think “like their chances” is a little strong. They would still have to make up 4 games in the last 16 games. And 3 of those are against the Phillies. I do believe the Cubs can stay hot and win maybe 88 games. That calls for 17-8 the rest of the year. My concern is 88 may not be enough. 

Edited September 2, 2024 by Rcal10

[LBiittner]

12 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

Ok I said I’d pay attention to the playoff standings and allow for some sort of hope if they got to within 3 games and they did so don’t break my heart again Cubs

Now u jinxed us

[Irrelevant Dude]

13 hours ago, JBears79 said:

Need the Mets to start losing too

I'm not worried about the Mets.  If the Cubs win enough games to pass the Braves, the Mets won't be a problem.

Edited September 2, 2024 by Irrelevant Dude

[LBiittner]

Now u have to buy a swiftie candle, UMF

Edited September 2, 2024 by LBiittner

[bukie]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Yes to everything. Cubs lose ALL tiebreakers. 

They could still win tiebreakers against the Dodgers and Phillies...

[chibears55]

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I think “like their chances” is a little strong. They would still have to make up 4 games in the last 16 games. And 3 of those are against the Phillies. I do believe the Cubs can stay hot and win maybe 88 games. That calls for 17-8 the rest of the year. My concern is 88 may not be enough. 

Liking their chances for me is that it closer to 50/50 for them. The Braves will havec4 with the Dodgers, 3 with the Mets and 3 with Royals.  

Yes it'll be really tough, they just gotta keep winning and hope the Braves take a spin and drop a few in a row.

At the very least we'll have meaningful games in September,  I for one wasn't expecting that.

[Derwood]

They still have like zero room for error. Lose 2 in a row while the Braves win 2 in a row and its over before it begins

[Rcal10]

4 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Liking their chances for me is that it closer to 50/50 for them. The Braves will havec4 with the Dodgers, 3 with the Mets and 3 with Royals.  

Yes it'll be really tough, they just gotta keep winning and hope the Braves take a spin and drop a few in a row.

At the very least we'll have meaningful games in September,  I for one wasn't expecting that.

I think if they are still 3 down after the next 9 games their playoff odds will be far less than 50/50. It will probably be less than what it is now. No way around it, they put themselves in a terrible spot. And nothing short of 17-8 the last 25 games will get it done. And, as I said, I am not sure than does it either. I think the Dbacks and Padres have a tougher schedule and I can see one of those teams putting up a 10-15 and the Cubs maybe passing them, almost as likely as them passing the Braves. 
BTW, I still think there is a better chance of SD or Az going 10-15 then there is on Atlanta going 14-14. But that is my opinion…… 

Edited September 2, 2024 by Rcal10

[LBiittner]

2 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Liking their chances for me is that it closer to 50/50 for them. The Braves will havec4 with the Dodgers, 3 with the Mets and 3 with Royals.  

Yes it'll be really tough, they just gotta keep winning and hope the Braves take a spin and drop a few in a row.

At the very least we'll have meaningful games in September,  I for one wasn't expecting that.

The Cubs are at 7% currently to make the playoffs 

Up from 3% a few days ago.

50/50 must be the new math that's the new rage all around.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Cubs' odds being 7% are significantly impacted by what projections think the Cubs will do the rest of the season.  The Cubs' odds of making the playoffs are much much higher if they have a good to great September, which means the Cubs' playoff chances are much more in their own control compared to 3 weeks ago.

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

The Cubs' odds being 7% are significantly impacted by what projections think the Cubs will do the rest of the season.  The Cubs' odds of making the playoffs are much much higher if they have a good to great September, which means the Cubs' playoff chances are much more in their own control compared to 3 weeks ago.

 

1 hour ago, LBiittner said:

The Cubs are at 7% currently to make the playoffs 

Up from 3% a few days ago.

50/50 must be the new math that's the new rage all around.

I'm not doing a projection based on whatever mlb uses for their odds,  I'm giving my opinion that if they can come away from the Yankees and Dodgers series still being within 3-4 games of a playoff spot, I think theyll have an even shot at getting there. 

Like i said, it won't be easy but it is doable.

Like TT says, theyll have to have a strong September and  control their destiny.

[Rcal10]

36 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

 

I'm not doing a projection based on whatever mlb uses for their odds,  I'm giving my opinion that if they can come away from the Yankees and Dodgers series still being within 3-4 games of a playoff spot, I think theyll have an even shot at getting there. 

Like i said, it won't be easy but it is doable.

Like TT says, theyll have to have a strong September and  control their destiny.

So what you are saying  is you aren’t going with facts about how hard it would be to make the playoffs. You are going with opinion, facts be damned. If they are still 3 out 9 games from now they are going to have a real hard time getting in. Far, far less that 50/50. 

[chibears55]

25 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

So what you are saying  is you aren’t going with facts about how hard it would be to make the playoffs. You are going with opinion, facts be damned. If they are still 3 out 9 games from now they are going to have a real hard time getting in. Far, far less that 50/50. 

Lol..

Yes, my personal odds will be 50/50 if they remain 3 games out with 16 to play.

Playing 13 games against the Rockies, As, Nats, and Reds 

(3 in Philly)

Will be alot easier then the Braves playing the Dodgers, Mets, and Royals in 10 of last 16. ( Reds, Marlins)

Gaining 1 game out of every 4 is very doable over the last 16