Twins (Ryan) vs Cubs (Assad): 8/7/24, 1:20pm

[chibears55]

104.7 🔥🔥🔥🔥

 

[soccer10k]

5 hours ago, Bertz said:

Looks like we're getting the soft part of the Guardians' rotation next week too. Though we do draw Crochet against the Sox so a sweep isn't a gimme this weekend.  It's also way too far out to feel confident but I think we're slated to miss Skubal against the Tigers?

But yeah until the Yankees series a month from now every series is either definitely easy or only hard if the pitching matchups fall the wrong way.  I think the damage is done on the playoffs but crawling back over .500 and staying there feels very doable.

I was thinking earlier that 5 games back of Atlanta isn't terrible but then I realized Atlanta is on pace for 86 wins which would require the Cubs to go 29-16 (104 win pace) just to tie them. That makes it seem much more daunting of a task.

[Stratos]

12 hours ago, mul21 said:

Check out the rest of their August schedule.  It's gonna be a bad month for them.

A bit of tangent but I see Cubs have a fairly easy schedule the rest of Aug, so could get interesting by the end of the month if Cubs play well.  Mixed schedule in Sept, playing some chumps but also Dodgers, Yanks, Phillies.  They might have to get hot in Sept.

Good news for Sept is Cubs have 16 home games and only 10 on the road.

[Stratos]

8 hours ago, CubinNY said:

Jed needs to realize he can't throw bodies in the pen at the start of the season and see what shakes out. This team (right now) is good team but it's too late. 

Yup same thing that happened last year.  I don't think it would be so bad if we had some real quality late inning guys to anchor the pen and the annual randoms could slot in mostly in middle relief.

As of right now the pen is mystery for next year.  We have Merryweather, and probably Hodge who hopefully is solid, but then we have no idea what we get from guys like Neris, Miller, Almonte, Pearson, Wesneski etc.  Should be June again until we figure it out.

[Rcal10]

7 hours ago, Stratos said:

Yup same thing that happened last year.  I don't think it would be so bad if we had some real quality late inning guys to anchor the pen and the annual randoms could slot in mostly in middle relief.

As of right now the pen is mystery for next year.  We have Merryweather, and probably Hodge who hopefully is solid, but then we have no idea what we get from guys like Neris, Miller, Almonte, Pearson, Wesneski etc.  Should be June again until we figure it out.

Who are these two quality guys you speak of? They are not going to spend $15M a year on a pen closer. So once that is realized please tell me who you consider a sure late inning guy they can spend $7M to $10M on and be sure he will be good. Simple fact is a middle relief pitcher is there because he isn’t good enough to be a closer or a starter. So he pitches in the middle. Those guys are usually not guys who are good every year. Just take a look at the guys who signed between $4M and $10M last year. Guys I assume most would have thought were solid guys. How did they all pan out? Were they all solid again this year? The pen is a crapshoot no matter who they sign. It is also the easiest spot on the team for people to complain about. But the truth is it is also unreliable spot on the team no matter what the FO does. 
I seem to recall fans wanting guys like Stephenson, Braiser, W. Smith, Stanek, Brebria, and even Hader. How are all of them doing? Mostly not so great. I am sure there are a few solid pen signings as well, but for the most part there is no guarantee that the guy you expect to be solid because he was the year before will be solid again. I totally agree with you that a great one would be awesome. I just don’t agree that throwing money at the supposed top end of the pen guys will make it a great one. 

Edited August 8, 2024 by Rcal10

[thawv]

15 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

If that's true, this zone graphic completely sucks.

I say this every game to myself.  They have the top of the strike zone at the belt.  Unless I missed something, that's not the top of the strike zone.  

[Rcal10]

8 hours ago, soccer10k said:

I was thinking earlier that 5 games back of Atlanta isn't terrible but then I realized Atlanta is on pace for 86 wins which would require the Cubs to go 29-16 (104 win pace) just to tie them. That makes it seem much more daunting of a task.

Well this is true. Fact is the top 3 teams ahead in the WC race need to drop back a little. As I said earlier, Cubs have to get lucky with some slumping from at least one of them that brings them back to the 84-85 range while the Cubs still play heat ball for 7 more weeks. Nit very likely.

[mul21]

12 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

We won so silly to be too negative but watching the highlights since I was at work and frustrating that both Twins runs potentially came on gaffes from the defense. In the first PCA airmailed both cutoff men when it looked like the Cubs had a play at the plate if he hits one of them. On the other Bethancourt tries to back pick the runner at 3rd (is it called a back pick when the throw goes to 3rd?) and the throw is errant, allowing the runner on 1st to advance to 2nd. The AB ends with a likely double play ball to end the inning but instead is just a single out with a run scoring

Minor nitpick, but the throw was on the money and Paredes just flat out didn't catch it.  It hit him in the heel of the glove.  A play he absolutely has to make.  

[Rcal10]

15 hours ago, chibears55 said:

I'm hoping Marquee will soon decide to redo the booth and just go with two people the whole season. 

 

That is just not happening. For one, Boog does network games. I am sure he has it in his contract, at his request, that he is allowed to continue doing them. Then maybe JD wants time off. Why does it seem you think this is marquee’s decision to have several announcers? I would guess the reason JD and Boog miss games is because JD and Boog want time off. If that is the case, and marquee demands 2 guys all year, maybe neither stays. Didn’t that very thing happen with the white Sox? 

[mfcubs22]

Let’s not do anything to make JD leave. He must be protected at all costs. 

[Stratos]

9 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Who are these two quality guys you speak of? They are not going to spend $15M a year on a pen closer. So once that is realized please tell me who you consider a sure late inning guy they can spend $7M to $10M on and be sure he will be good. Simple fact is a middle relief pitcher is there because he isn’t good enough to be a closer or a starter. So he pitches in the middle. Those guys are usually not guys who are good every year. Just take a look at the guys who signed between $4M and $10M last year. Guys I assume most would have thought were solid guys. How did they all pan out? Were they all solid again this year? The pen is a crapshoot no matter who they sign. It is also the easiest spot on the team for people to complain about. But the truth is it is also unreliable spot on the team no matter what the FO does. 
I seem to recall fans wanting guys like Stephenson, Braiser, W. Smith, Stanek, Brebria, and even Hader. How are all of them doing? Mostly not so great. I am sure there are a few solid pen signings as well, but for the most part there is no guarantee that the guy you expect to be solid because he was the year before will be solid again. I totally agree with you that a great one would be awesome. I just don’t agree that throwing money at the supposed top end of the pen guys will make it a great one. 

Well you made the same argument last offseason and the offseason before and the exact same thing happened both years as I had warned.

I get not wanting to spend 15m on a reliever, but they could also develop some young arms.  They cut Estrada when he was going through some control issues and now he's a horse.  They just traded Bigge and Leiter, and Effross before that.  I get the logic of these decisions, but if they're going to keep putting such a low value on quality pen arms and trade most of the good ones away because Hoyer thinks they're "overvalued" they're going to end up with the type of pens they've had, which is mostly just a bunch of random dudes.

Real talent is real talent.  Pedro Strop, Mariano Rivera, Josh Hader etc is real talent and are going to be good far more than they're bad.  Extreme examples but if Hoyer wants to rely on luck then they're relying on a pen with a coin flips chance of being effective rather than stacking higher odds in their favour by acquiring or developing/keeping talent, and the results speak for themselves.

[Cuzi]

I'll be interested to see what a guy like Jose Leclerc will fetch on the market.

He's having a down year with walks, but he's still throwing filth out there at 98th percentile whiff%, 93rd K%, 90th xBA, and when he does get hit it's usually not hard. Probably get him cheaper than the more name brand closers. And he's a fastball/slider pitcher that this organization targets.

Edited August 8, 2024 by Cuzi

[We Got The Whole 9]

54 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Well you made the same argument last offseason and the offseason before and the exact same thing happened both years as I had warned.

I get not wanting to spend 15m on a reliever, but they could also develop some young arms.  They cut Estrada when he was going through some control issues and now he's a horse.  They just traded Bigge and Leiter, and Effross before that.  I get the logic of these decisions, but if they're going to keep putting such a low value on quality pen arms and trade most of the good ones away because Hoyer thinks they're "overvalued" they're going to end up with the type of pens they've had, which is mostly just a bunch of random dudes.

Real talent is real talent.  Pedro Strop, Mariano Rivera, Josh Hader etc is real talent and are going to be good far more than they're bad.  Extreme examples but if Hoyer wants to rely on luck then they're relying on a pen with a coin flips chance of being effective rather than stacking higher odds in their favour by acquiring or developing/keeping talent, and the results speak for themselves.

What is 'real talent'? Track record? Stuff? Tools? Neris had all and he's been meh. Hader got huge money and has had one of his worst seasons. It improved over time but it started really rough.

 

The Cubs are trying to develop their own guys (Adbert, Little. Bigge, Hodge) and they're also trying to refine unpolished guys, and have spent modestly on 'real talent' that often ends up being a poor investment. A lot of RP who signed the bigger contracts in the winter have been total JAGs. They largely outweigh the what about guys you want to point to.

 

So many teams build the pen the same way. People thought Jed was an idiot for taking a chance on Leiter, for example. Nobody was excited when we picked up Merryweather, Robertson, and more. We got hyped over the Morrow signing and it looked solid for like a month. You just never know. Bullpens are extremely volatile from year to year.

[Stratos]

51 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

I'll be interested to see what a guy like Jose Leclerc will fetch on the market.

He's having a down year with walks, but he's still throwing filth out there at 98th percentile whiff%, 93rd K%, 90th xBA, and when he does get hit it's usually not hard. Probably get him cheaper than the more name brand closers. And he's a fastball/slider pitcher that this organization targets.

Cubs are always the bridesmaid, never the bride.

[Cuzi]

22 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Cubs are always the bridesmaid, never the bride.

They aren't going to break the bank for a closer. Just accept that. That's not their philosophy when it comes to relievers. They're already preparing you for a bullpen anchored by guys like Nate Pearson in 2025.

[LBiittner]

6 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

They aren't going to break the bank for a closer. Just accept that. That's not their philosophy when it comes to relievers. They're already preparing you for a bullpen anchored by guys like Nate Pearson in 2025.

Give me soto and I'll be happy to club the opponent to a pulp.

Haha

[Rcal10]

21 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

They aren't going to break the bank for a closer. Just accept that. That's not their philosophy when it comes to relievers. They're already preparing you for a bullpen anchored by guys like Nate Pearson in 2025.

And Pearson might be the best of the guys who will be available. That is the point. Stratos is right he said it last year and the year before that. And he will say it again next year unless the Cubs happen to get lucky and pick the absolute right pair of pen arms. And even then I am sure he will be posting that the pen sucks when they do blow a game. The pen has been amazing since July 1st. But as soon as they lost a game what did people do? They blamed the pen and complained about it. It is just an easy mark. What I would like to see is this off season Stratos pick the two guys he thinks they should get. Then we can compare them to who they got. It is very easy to say they should get two lock down guys. And then after the fact pick the guys. Let see who they should be before the season starts and then see how they do. The bottom line is it is a crapshoot no matter who you pick. 

[Bertz]

Jed will never ever ever ever do something like the Hader deal or the Edwin Diaz deal.  

I don't think the next tier down of deals though, 2-3 years and totalling something in the $30Ms or $40Ms, is out of the question.  In fact there was some reporting last winter about that being something he was willing to bend a little bit on specifically for Craig.

[Rcal10]

17 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Jed will never ever ever ever do something like the Hader deal or the Edwin Diaz deal.  

I don't think the next tier down of deals though, 2-3 years and totalling something in the $30Ms or $40Ms, is out of the question.  In fact there was some reporting last winter about that being something he was willing to bend a little bit on specifically for Craig.

But I don’t think that means they solve the pen. I don’t think anyone they sign for something like 3/$30M has any better a chance of being a solid pen arm then Pearson, Merryweather or any number of minor league arms they have. Just look at how good guys like Miller and Lopez have been since being picked up as free agents. Stratos isn’t wrong that they need a good pen. What he is wrong about is assuming spending on guys makes the pen good. The pen is always going to be something people will always complain about. I am sure he and many others will be complaining again next year. There is no sure way to build a solid pen. Throwing money at it isn’t the answer.

it is also easy to rip Jed for Estrada. But that is after the fact. I am sure he was a guy people complained about when he was on thr Cubs. I am certain he was someone people used as an example of the Cubs not getting a proven pen arm because they had him and the Cubs were wrong for that decision. And now he is being used as an example of the FO giving away good pen arms. . 
year after year the pen is an very easy thing to complain about. And it will always be the case. 

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Cuzi said:

They aren't going to break the bank for a closer. Just accept that. That's not their philosophy when it comes to relievers. They're already preparing you for a bullpen anchored by guys like Nate Pearson in 2025.

That's fine, but their philosophy has also failed this team badly in the first half of the last 2 seasons.

My point is if they don't want to pay for a real closer in FA that's fine, but then trading a bunch of relief talent away just doesn't make much sense either.  If they want to load the pen with random dudes they think are worth taking a gamble on then it may often take months to figure out who stinks and who doesn't, and by that time they've blown a bunch of leads in games.

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

What is 'real talent'? Track record? Stuff? Tools? Neris had all and he's been meh. Hader got huge money and has had one of his worst seasons. It improved over time but it started really rough.

The Cubs are trying to develop their own guys (Adbert, Little. Bigge, Hodge)...

They signed Neris at 35 years old and his results from 3 of the last 4 seasons were pretty average, and so was his xFIP last year.  I don't think he's a bad pitcher but I don't think he's anything that special and his overall results (ERA and xFIP) this year are fairly in line with what he's done over the last several years.

The guys you mentioned are fine, but they traded Bigge, Little is meh, and there's a decent chance they overpitched Adbert to more injuries last summer because most of the rest of the pen was weak.

When is the last time the Cubs developed (and kept) a high quality late-inning reliever?  I guess Adbert counts for one season?  And if we look at the top 100 relievers in the MLB this season the Cubs have none of them.  Sure relievers can be pretty random but that's not good.

Edited August 9, 2024 by Stratos

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I've mentioned it before, but I'm gonna be pedantic and say that no bullpen building strategy would have withstood the amount of late inning and rotation injuries that derailed the first couple months of the year.  Ponying up for Hader doesn't mean anything if he's on the IL, and all the prospect depth in the world can't help the pen if it's hurt or has to be thrust into the rotation.

This is less impactful, but I also think the suggestion that Jed sat out a bunch of higher end RPs and dug around for leftovers is a bit overstated.  There were basically 3 RP deals that were meaningfully larger than Neris(Hader, Stephenson, Kimbrel), and one of those hasn't pitched at all due to TJS.

[Rcal10]

7 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I've mentioned it before, but I'm gonna be pedantic and say that no bullpen building strategy would have withstood the amount of late inning and rotation injuries that derailed the first couple months of the year.  Ponying up for Hader doesn't mean anything if he's on the IL, and all the prospect depth in the world can't help the pen if it's hurt or has to be thrust into the rotation.

This is less impactful, but I also think the suggestion that Jed sat out a bunch of higher end RPs and dug around for leftovers is a bit overstated.  There were basically 3 RP deals that were meaningfully larger than Neris(Hader, Stephenson, Kimbrel), and one of those hasn't pitched at all due to TJS.

Agreed. The bullpen complaining is the easiest argument to make every year. Even now while Jed is being criticized for letting go of Estrada and even Bigge, Stratos is suggesting Little is pretty meh. But if the Cubs get rid of Little and he has a good year people will be complain the Cubs didn’t give him a chance. Knowing they aren’t going to spend on a closer brings them to signing middle relief guys. There are just not sure lock down middle relief guys. Even if you find one who has been good 3 or 4 years in a row, it doesn’t mean they will be good when they sign him. It is just the position you cannot count on. Again, Stratos isn’t wrong about needing a strong pen. I completely agree that they do. I just don’t agree that it is solved automatically by adding FA middle relief pitchers. There is luck involved, period. 
As an example, take a look at Gallegos of the Cardinals. Solid 4 year span before a 2 year contract to start the 23’ season. He was 30. He sucked jn 23 and was cut in 24’. So did the Cardinals make a mistake signing him? Results say yes. But I am sure in the off season before the 23’ season people were complaining about the Cardinals always making smart moves that don’t cost them too much. Is he finished at 32-33? Maybe. But would it shock people if he was effective again? Unless there is underlying numbers that say he lost it or he is injured, it wouldn’t shock me if he is good again. He is just a middle relief pitcher who has had some good and bad years. It is the nature of the position. 

Edited August 9, 2024 by Rcal10