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Cubs (Hendricks) vs Giants (TBD): 6/25/24, 8:45pm

Brock Beauchamp
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CubinNY MVP

CubinNY

Old-Timey Member
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I used to think that things would turn around for this team. I no longer think that. They are merely a bad team, not awful, just bad. There is not one player who is going to make them a better team. They need a thumper like Alonso (but maybe not him), they need closer, and they need guys in the pen who can throw strikes.

Some of this stuff is just baseball unpredictability, but a lot of it is systemic failure by the organization. 

Tryptamine South Bend Cubs

Tryptamine

Old-Timey Member
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The inability of the pen to throw strikes is just a complete failure as an organization. What's more is we've actively seen some of the relievers who were clearly scared to throw strikes. Last week it was Wesneski, a day or two after it was Neris and last night it was Smyly. 

Their 4.47 BB/9 is the 3rd worst in the majors and if we look at it since the start of June it's 5.43 which is dead last by a mile. The 2nd worst is 4.65.

s2obed College Ball

s2obed

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Sucks about the pen last night but Cubs had too many missed chances to pile on runs in the early innings. 

Eeyore Draft Eligible

Eeyore

Old-Timey Member
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1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Update: False alarm. He's not in SF. Per Tommy Birch.

It's a shame. PCA clearly needs time in the minors and Canario has earned another shot. 

I'm not as big into the numbers as many here but just looking at wRC+ makes it easy to see where the offensive problems are. PCA needs more work. 

I know that the numbers show that Morel is unlucky, but shouldn't that even out over a large enough sample size? At what point does the number show who he is?

I don't get too caught up in slightly below average numbers from the middle infield or catchers. The main complaint about the catching spot is that the front office did nothing to hedge their bets on Amaya and Gomes. Ballesteros should not be plan B or C at this point in his career.

Stratos ACL Cubs

Stratos

Old-Timey Member
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2 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Canario will be with team tonight,  no word on counter move.

Cool.  PCA would be good to keep through the Giants series due to the large OF.  He should be playing every day in Iowa, he's not ready for prime time.  I would love to see Mastro deleted from this org.

Jason Ross Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Jason Ross

North Side Contributor
Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Eeyore said:

It's a shame. PCA clearly needs time in the minors and Canario has earned another shot. 

I'm not as big into the numbers as many here but just looking at wRC+ makes it easy to see where the offensive problems are. PCA needs more work. 

I know that the numbers show that Morel is unlucky, but shouldn't that even out over a large enough sample size? At what point does the number show who he is?

I don't get too caught up in slightly below average numbers from the middle infield or catchers. The main complaint about the catching spot is that the front office did nothing to hedge their bets on Amaya and Gomes. Ballesteros should not be plan B or C at this point in his career.

I think PCA needs more work. I also don't think Alexander Canario is still the answer. In fact, the mixup was because he's still hurt and the Cubs were checking him out. 

Regardless, however, his underlying numbers in Triple-A are ugly. I know he's been on a run up through the injury where it was home run, home run, home run, but overall his contact rate is...woof. He's making contact on 61% of his swings while in-zone-whiffing at 27%. To put that in perspective, he's making 10% less contact than International League average and swinging and missing in the zone almost 9% more. He's up to too many PA's at Triple-A for this to be nothing, as well, considering he's over 400 PA's at the level now.  Even over his hot range, his contact% since the last week of May is 60% with a 28% in-zone whiff. If he had enough PA's to qualify, he'd have the third worst contact of anyone in Triple-A and bottom-5 in-zone whiff.

Canario wll likely have a better wRC+ than PCA for a bit because I expect he can run into a home run more often. He's probably also capable of hitting four home runs in a week. But I expect he'd be Patrick Wisdom, mostly; someone who's capable of running into a home run or a super-mega-week but the in-between times are times of largely uncompetitive PA's and mediocre/poor defense. PCA is going to likely be a more useful player to the Cubs currently because in between the two who would be largely unhelpful offensively, one is providing elite defense at a premium position and other...well the other isn't in that ballpark. And I think while PCA has plenty to learn, learning at the MLB level probably isn't the worst thing right now, either. Take your lumps currently and if you can, get over them. It will take uber prospect Jackson Holliday a second chance to get it right and Jacksoun Chourio is only starting to look like he's turning a corner, 150 PA's into it. 

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CubinNY MVP

CubinNY

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think PCA needs more work. I also don't think Alexander Canario is still the answer. In fact, the mixup was because he's still hurt and the Cubs were checking him out. 

Regardless, however, his underlying numbers in Triple-A are ugly. I know he's been on a run up through the injury where it was home run, home run, home run, but overall his contact rate is...woof. He's making contact on 61% of his swings while in-zone-whiffing at 27%. To put that in perspective, he's making 10% less contact than International League average and swinging and missing in the zone almost 9% more. He's up to too many PA's at Triple-A for this to be nothing, as well, considering he's over 400 PA's at the level now.  Even over his hot range, his contact% since the last week of May is 60% with a 28% in-zone whiff. If he had enough PA's to qualify, he'd have the third worst contact of anyone in Triple-A and bottom-5 in-zone whiff.

Canario wll likely have a better wRC+ than PCA for a bit because I expect he can run into a home run more often. He's probably also capable of hitting four home runs in a week. But I expect he'd be Patrick Wisdom, mostly; someone who's capable of running into a home run or a super-mega-week but the in-between times are times of largely uncompetitive PA's and mediocre/poor defense. PCA is going to likely be a more useful player to the Cubs currently because in between the two who would be largely unhelpful offensively, one is providing elite defense at a premium position and other...well the other isn't in that ballpark. And I think while PCA has plenty to learn, learning at the MLB level probably isn't the worst thing right now, either. Take your lumps currently and if you can, get over them. It will take uber prospect Jackson Holliday a second chance to get it right and Jacksoun Chourio is only starting to look like he's turning a corner, 150 PA's into it. 

You can do that when you hit the piss out the ball. 

Jason Ross Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Jason Ross

North Side Contributor
Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

You can do that when you hit the piss out the ball. 

Forgive me for the clarification attempt, but it depends on what you're meaning by "that". If you're suggesting that "that's what you can do when you hit the piss out of the ball" is "run into a home run" or be Patrick Wisdom...you're correct, that is possible. If you are suggesting that as long as you hit the piss out of the ball, you can run 60% contact rates in Triple-A and expect MLB success? You cannot.

Looking at the MLB, there is almost no one doing what Canario is doing, with one exception (and one big caveat). Nolan Gorman is probably the closest to what Canario is doing in Triple-A (with the caveat he's doing at a much higher level), as his contact rate is around 61.5%, with a 28% in-zone-whiff and near 50% swing rate. He's running a 95 wRC+, a .299 wOBA, with a .195/.271/.418 line while striking out more than one out of every three times. Gorman, has for all intents and purposes, been effectively a replacement level player this season. He was a 118 wRC+ hitter last year! He also made 5% more contact, made much better swing choices and these things are quite reflective and are above what Canario is capable of doing over large samples in a lower level against lower competition. 

Comparing to Canario, it's unlikely that Canario would be even capable of reaching those levels right now. Canario is putting up similar contact rates as Gorman is, but is doing so against much worse pitching. A reminder than Nick Madrigal and his sub 80 wRC+ was unable to barrel a single baseball at the Major League level this year and managed to barrel a ball in his third Iowa PA. Mastrobuoni, everyone's favorite Cub has a 107 wRC+ in Triple-A; he's got a 10 this season in the majors. Canario would be lucky to replicate that kind of contact data, meaning, the best case scenario, unless his contact rates change drastically, is that of a 5% below league average hitter, and but fare more likely well below that, in the 75-80 wRC+ range (or worse) as he'd be unlikely to maintain his contact rates against better pitching (which would make him about the worst contact% hitter in the MLB). 

JHBulls ACL Cubs

JHBulls

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

As I suspected when I saw the screen glitching on my TV and iPad, the Giants feed doesn’t have it. Marquee is a bit screwy tonight. 

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