Braves (Morton) @ Cubs (Assad) - 5/21/24 6:40 CST - TBS/Marquee

[We Got The Whole 9]

People love to criticize his piecemeal bullpen construction but it's very effective. The one thing Jed has really ignored though is a quality lefty there. Hoping obviously that Little becomes that guy but I think the odds are against it because he's so wild. I would have (and thought highly of the move at the time) loved to have seen Jed be the guy to steal Bummer. Still Neris and Almonte look like good pickups, Miller is like Cuas with far better control, Leiter is a real feather in the cap snatched off the gurney, same with Merryweather, who I think will play a huge role once he's healthy. Even though they lack that dominant lefty, if you had 2023 Alzolay with this group you'd have one of the best pens in the league, mostly on scrap pickups.

 

Jed is really good at getting Hottovy the right players to mold. It takes a little time to come together but it usually does.

[Tim]

Smyly has been pretty effective throughout his career when used as a SIRP

[CubinNY]

Well I was pleasantly surprised when I woke this AM

[Brian707]

8 hours ago, Bertz said:

This early in the year the focus is correctly on the division, but something else to keep in mind is that the Cubs are 4 games up on a playoff spot despite the injuries and the tough early schedule.

Even winning the division isn't that important unless it's #1 or #2 division winner.  Don't see the Central winner in that spot. Just get in the crap shoot and see what happens 

[BKHoo]

A lights out bullpen to hold down the Braves.  Impressive. 

[CubUgly]

6 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

People love to criticize his piecemeal bullpen construction but it's very effective. 

Brad Wieck 2.11 ERA and .98 WHIP in 21.1 innings in Iowa?  Just sayin'.

[mul21]

7 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Hoping obviously that Little becomes that guy but I think the odds are against it because he's so wild.

He was actually locating very well last night and the garbage ump cost him a couple called strikes.  He was both bad and inconsistent, even within the same AB.

Generally I agree on Little's control, but it feels like he's been a bit better lately with location.

[We Got The Whole 9]

20 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Re: Little’s future (1.0?))

Am I the only one who feels (too lazy to check, plus I kinda already know) that the majority of top relievers are what would be considered “wild” just looking at walk rates? It’s not new either. He’s got everything to grow into the role

The turnkey mentality towards youth is for the birds, thoroughly disgusting and unrealistic 

You can probably live in the 10-12 BB% range, but Little is over 17. 2 of the top 30 have a higher rate. He also has 3 WP and 3 HBP in 12 IP. 16 free base-runners in 12 IP is awful. And to boot he has a sub-20 K rate, 25% oswing, and 76% contact rate. 

 

Maybe you didn't actually kinda already know?

 

Edited May 22, 2024 by We Got The Whole 9

[SOFNR]

7 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

People love to criticize his piecemeal bullpen construction but it's very effective. The one thing Jed has really ignored though is a quality lefty there. Hoping obviously that Little becomes that guy but I think the odds are against it because he's so wild. I would have (and thought highly of the move at the time) loved to have seen Jed be the guy to steal Bummer. Still Neris and Almonte look like good pickups, Miller is like Cuas with far better control, Leiter is a real feather in the cap snatched off the gurney, same with Merryweather, who I think will play a huge role once he's healthy. Even though they lack that dominant lefty, if you had 2023 Alzolay with this group you'd have one of the best pens in the league, mostly on scrap pickups.

 

Jed is really good at getting Hottovy the right players to mold. It takes a little time to come together but it usually does.

I feel like its not a bad strategy because it's fairly low cost and I usually expect it to result in a strong bullpen by the end of the season. Overuse led to some of the late season issues last year. This year I believe they've got enough arms, with some help from the minors, to build something really good. But it does always suck watching them give away games early as they are figuring it out.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

57 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Re: Little’s future (1.0?))

Am I the only one who feels (too lazy to check, plus I kinda already know) that the majority of top relievers are what would be considered “wild” just looking at walk rates? It’s not new either. He’s got everything to grow into the role

You can't have sufficient swing and miss to be a good bullpen arm without risking some walks, the only way to avoid that is if your stuff is so superhuman that you get a ton of in-zone whiff which only a handful of guys can pull off.  

That said, there are degrees to this.  Little can be extremely hard to barrel, but major leaguers are good and if you give them repeated hitter's counts with uncompetitive pitches, you start to get burned even if you can steer the ball back in the zone.  And that's the thing with Little, it's not necessarily the walk count, it's that the walks are representative of inconsistency in his mechanics that lead to him having basically zero command.  The problem I see is that mechanical inconsistency is probably a function of him being an enormous person, and he doesn't have the athleticism to repeat in the way he'll have to.  So in outings where he stays in and near the zone will look like last night, and then we'll flip the coin next time to see if he's that version or the one who can walk the bases loaded(or give up 2-0 line drives) in the blink of an eye.

[squally1313]

11 hours ago, Bertz said:

*whispers* The Cubs' bullpen is now 15th in WAR and 11th in WPA

Through May 21 of last year: 14th in WAR and 24th in WPA. 

Which is really just to say like....no one really has any idea how to make this consistently work. I could point to like 6 different factors as reasons why they were bad and now why they are good (for now). Happy they generally avoided making snap judgements, churning through roster/40 man spots, etc. The margins are so small when you narrow it down to those types of sample sizes.

[spaincubsfan]

8 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

People love to criticize his piecemeal bullpen construction but it's very effective. The one thing Jed has really ignored though is a quality lefty there. Hoping obviously that Little becomes that guy but I think the odds are against it because he's so wild. I would have (and thought highly of the move at the time) loved to have seen Jed be the guy to steal Bummer. Still Neris and Almonte look like good pickups, Miller is like Cuas with far better control, Leiter is a real feather in the cap snatched off the gurney, same with Merryweather, who I think will play a huge role once he's healthy. Even though they lack that dominant lefty, if you had 2023 Alzolay with this group you'd have one of the best pens in the league, mostly on scrap pickups.

 

Jed is really good at getting Hottovy the right players to mold. It takes a little time to come together but it usually does.

The BP has been a lot better the last 7 days (Hoping the bats follow):

 

[CubinNY]

8 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

You can't have sufficient swing and miss to be a good bullpen arm without risking some walks, the only way to avoid that is if your stuff is so superhuman that you get a ton of in-zone whiff which only a handful of guys can pull off.  

That said, there are degrees to this.  Little can be extremely hard to barrel, but major leaguers are good and if you give them repeated hitter's counts with uncompetitive pitches, you start to get burned even if you can steer the ball back in the zone.  And that's the thing with Little, it's not necessarily the walk count, it's that the walks are representative of inconsistency in his mechanics that lead to him having basically zero command.  The problem I see is that mechanical inconsistency is probably a function of him being an enormous person, and he doesn't have the athleticism to repeat in the way he'll have to.  So in outings where he stays in and near the zone will look like last night, and then we'll flip the coin next time to see if he's that version or the one who can walk the bases loaded(or give up 2-0 line drives) in the blink of an eye.

Yes, it's a bit of a double edged sword with Little. His delivery funk helps him hide the ball and probably generate movement, but it comes at the price of a lack of repeatability and volatility on any given night. 

It's that ability to harness funk that makes a guy usable. Marmol didn't have a funky delivery per se, but his slider was about the best I've ever seen with late movement. It wasn't until he learned to throw strikes with his fastball that he became a good/great relief pitcher. 

Edited May 22, 2024 by CubinNY

[Transmogrified Tiger]

7 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Stuff like athleticism and command are easy to knock at their lowest, but nothing about a player with Little’s combo of size, velo, and MiLB dominance suggest a player so short on functional athleticism or command. I see it as simple as this is still a young-er pitcher building strength, conditioning, and facing the best competition for essentially the first time. Throw in some scarcity - even with more usable talent than ever out there it’s still going to take a while to run into a giant lefty with a low-er slot sitting 97 with a couple offspeeds and dominant MiLB career - and Little’s someone they should be willing to push rather than shrink away from. Development can’t be expecting every young and younger person to immediately come in and prop up this half butt one foot always out the door franchise or whatever is expected of youth to get any kind of meaningful opportunity. It’s pure, raw insanity to force us through 2 half decade rebuilds in a decade, pump up this farm system, only to then give everyone 12 seconds to forever prove themselves (ignoring all but the 12 seconds too)

I mean, who is talking about kicking Little to the curb?  We can be clear eyed about his prognosis and hopeful that he bucks the trend while not trying to ship him out of town or make him into something he's not, no?  Players with Little's build have been extremely rare, partially because they are at the tail end of the demographic curve, but also because especially players of that height have historically had the same problem of repeating mechanics and therefore not having sufficient control/command.  Yes, Little has age on his side and I'm not saying he absolutely cannot find a way through.  But he was also around a 15% walk rate in AA and AAA so the fact that his MLB time has been more of the same(now with more hard contact from better hitters) is a continuation of his progression and not a new bump in the road.

[UMFan83]

There's definitely something there when it comes to Jed strategy for building bullpens and yes they typically figure it out most years, but its not foolproof either.  The Cubs missed the playoffs by 1 game last year and as pointed out overuse played a big part in the late season collapse.  Why? Guys like Fulmer and Boxberger battled injuries but in general while they ended up piecing together a solid 7-9 with Merryweather, Leiter and Alzolay, they had issues with depth beyond that, thus Ross felt like he needed to use his horses over and over again.  That overuse can be blamed on Ross, but also because the Cubs fell way off the pace in the early part of the season (at least somewhat due to bullpen struggles) and needed to win so many of those close games in July and August to play themselves into playoff positioning.

Basically what I'm trying to say is that while Jed's piecemeal bullpen did become effective for a big chunk of the season, I don't consider the strategy as successful last year because bullpen issues in April, May and September contributed to the Cubs falling 1 game short of the playoffs.  If the Cubs fall 1 game short again this year, the 6-7 blown games in April and May this year will be a contributing factor. 

I'd say that by nature of how Jed builds bullpens, we should expect some struggles early season most years and build that into our expectations, but when those struggles affect our play in September or the struggles are directly affecting the outcome of such a high percentage of games early in the season, I think its fair to criticize while still acknowledging that Jed and co. have done a solid job overall building bullpens from scraps.

[SOFNR]

15 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

There's definitely something there when it comes to Jed strategy for building bullpens and yes they typically figure it out most years, but its not foolproof either.  The Cubs missed the playoffs by 1 game last year and as pointed out overuse played a big part in the late season collapse.  Why? Guys like Fulmer and Boxberger battled injuries but in general while they ended up piecing together a solid 7-9 with Merryweather, Leiter and Alzolay, they had issues with depth beyond that, thus Ross felt like he needed to use his horses over and over again.  That overuse can be blamed on Ross, but also because the Cubs fell way off the pace in the early part of the season (at least somewhat due to bullpen struggles) and needed to win so many of those close games in July and August to play themselves into playoff positioning.

Basically what I'm trying to say is that while Jed's piecemeal bullpen did become effective for a big chunk of the season, I don't consider the strategy as successful last year because bullpen issues in April, May and September contributed to the Cubs falling 1 game short of the playoffs.  If the Cubs fall 1 game short again this year, the 6-7 blown games in April and May this year will be a contributing factor. 

I'd say that by nature of how Jed builds bullpens, we should expect some struggles early season most years and build that into our expectations, but when those struggles affect our play in September or the struggles are directly affecting the outcome of such a high percentage of games early in the season, I think its fair to criticize while still acknowledging that Jed and co. have done a solid job overall building bullpens from scraps.

Yah I'd agree with pretty much all of this. It's a dangerous game to play, but I typically think it's a better strategy then spending lots of money or trading important pieces. Ideally, now that the Cubs have a good minor league system, and a pretty strong rotation, they'll have more cheap good arms to choose from going forward.

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 hour ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Oh well if he hasn’t nailed it forever yet then obviously I’m talking madness

The mentality is just insane to me. No one wants to pay anyone. No one wants to give opportunity. Anyone currently performing is aging and not that good. Where is talent supposed to come from in the long run? What are the actual principles to even finding talent? Just keep bringing bodies in until someone immediately forever sticks? 

You said yourself: look at what he did to MiLB hitters and look at the tools playing against MLB hitters. To be frank, they're not. And I question how much value he will bring to the pen this year even though I was a big proponent of Little's all through last year and I have never advocated against him getting opportunities. I'm not sure he has the command to be the dominant guy he was in MiLB. It's an objective fact though that Jed hasn't acquired a significant LHRP since Justin Wilson.

 

On the topic of us giving up too soon on RP, Jeremiah Estrada certainly looks like a horrible move.

[mul21]

3 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

How clearly eyed can things be really when it's just about this relentless demand for perfection, focusing on flaws, keeping one foot out, and whatacoinky no one ever seems to meet the standard except like teenagers in the low minors?

Besides age Little has velo, health (why do we always brush this one off esp when it comes to development?), MiLB performance, a different look, etc etc...Ultimately I just do not understand where you guys imagine talent is coming from in the long run if players must be perfect all the time, it's so obviously unsustainable as an approach

 

Nobody is demanding perfection, we just want him to throw strikes more consistently.  Jesus dude.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I question how clear eyed these takes can be when the only use what few numbers in play seem to have is to come up with a case against. Like we're down to knocking size, as if he hasn't been this big the whole time, because we're not used to it or something. This is a guy who also struck out a ton, got a ton of GB contact, kept the ball in the park when it did get in the air, and in a variety of roles including starting at the lower levels of the pros. Even his MLB career has largely gone well on the whole so far (3.26 ERA, 27% Ks, low EVs, plenty GBs). How clearly eyed can things be really when it's just about this relentless demand for perfection, focusing on flaws, keeping one foot out, and whatacoinky no one ever seems to meet the standard except like teenagers in the low minors?

Besides age Little has velo, health (why do we always brush this one off esp when it comes to development?), MiLB performance, a different look, etc etc...Ultimately I just do not understand where you guys imagine talent is coming from in the long run if players must be perfect all the time, it's so obviously unsustainable as an approach

 

Across AAA and MLB this year, Little has a 4.65 ERA and 5.53 FIP, he's struck out 1 more batter than he's walked.  He has objectively not pitched well, and my posts are explaining the whys that are driving that.  These are small samples, just like the samples are small of him pitching a bit better in AAA/MLB last year, and that is part of the point being made.  The answer of why Little can look good is obvious, he throws upper 90s from a brutal angle for LHH and gets like 30 feet of extension due to being part redwood.  The answer of why Little has been less good is what I'm saying, that he's going to look great sometimes and horrible some others.  It is not that Little's 2024 line is what you expect of him going forward, or that he's hopeless to ever sort out these problems.  But these are the problems that have existed with his profile the whole time, it's why he got quickly moved to the pen, it's why his run prevention was merely 'good' in AA despite striking out 16 per 9, and it's why he's struggling with consistency at the high minors/MLB level now.

You've created this fiction in your head that this skepticism is writing him off as useless and representative of demanding finished products of young players the moment they hit MLB.  Not only is that obvious nonsense, it leads to a much less interesting conversation than actually talking about the player and performance involved.