5/2/24 - CHC (Brown) @ NYM (Houser) 12:10 MSN

[Brock Beauchamp]

Napping on the job last night. @PackLandVA is up for today's game thread.

[ToolDRT]

7 hours ago, Stratos said:

Yeah.  Every lead after the SP leaves is an adventure.

I'm hoping Alzolay and Neris get right over the next month.  Steele getting back will stick Brown in the pen likely which will help.  Most of the pen is looking like JAG city right now.

Our bats really need to start to get going on the road more also.

Agreed. Though, sometimes I let it slip in my mind how injured we’ve been too. Had you told me this would be our record without Steele I’d have been delighted. You just hope we don’t lose the division with some of these early season collapses. 

[Bertz]

 

 

[chibears55]

15 hours ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

I have been saying this since well before he signed his extension, and have been consistently proven wrong.  I assume he will turn things around this season and prove us wrong again.

Ian Happ is just a guy, meaning he's an average player that easy to replace and upgrade from.  He has his little hot moments here and there that gets people excited with his potential but for the most part his bat is quiet.

Depending on how things look with Caissie, PCA, and maybe even Alcantara at the end of the season,  I wouldn't be surprise if Hoyer looks to move him and his remaining 2 yrs of 40 mil.

[chibears55]

7 hours ago, Stratos said:

Can you slide to a bag with your helmet reaching out?

They let them wear those oversize oven mitts, so I think they should 🤷‍♂️😅

[Irrelevant Dude]

7 hours ago, Stratos said:

Can you slide to a bag with your helmet reaching out?

That's like the old trick when my parents told me to go to my room and I would create a path of clothes to walk from my room into the hallway.  "I'm still connected to my room!"

[mul21]

Looks like @Southpaw19 is up today if I can read (always questionable by Friday).

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Exactly. And, yes, they have thrown some games away, but every team has done so as well. I am sure there are fans of other teams saying the exact same things this fan base is saying. If only we didn’t blow this game or that game. It is just baseball. Stuff happens. The reason for the long season is to hopefully have things even out and the best teams move on. But there is no point rehashing every game we think we should have won. Cubs have probably won as many games this year where the fans of the opposition are suggesting how that team should have beaten the Cubs. At this point with the injuries they have had and the poor play of guys you expect more out of, I am very happy with their records, regardless of how many games people think they should have won. 

Exactly,  when we take a breath after a tough loss as a fan, we need to realize that in month 1, they lost 3 SP from opening day, their top set up man in the bullpen, their 2 best run producers, and a couple others that missed days here and there.

So, going into Month 2 only being a game out is pretty good when you consider how much worse it probably should be considering what they have gone through in month 1.

[squally1313]

26 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Ian Happ is just a guy, meaning he's an average player that easy to replace and upgrade from.  He has his little hot moments here and there that gets people excited with his potential but for the most part his bat is quiet.

Since the beginning of 2022, Ian Happ has been the 16th most valuable outfielder in baseball. 27th in wRC for guys with over 500 PAs. There are 90 outfield spots in baseball. 

This team has a handful of non-elite but but nonetheless very, very good, first division starters (and, to fend off the other bad argument, none of them are making elite money). Dansby is not Mookie, but he is an excellent shortstop. Nico is not Semien, but he is a great second baseman. Seiya is not Soto, but he is a really good right fielder. You could probably throw Bellinger and Steele in this mix too (along with a hopefully eventually fixed Azlolay). 

[sneakypower]

that's kinda the good and the bad of Jed's roster construction; having a team loaded with fairly mediocre players means you can easily weather the storm of a few injuries since there's not a ton of production to replace there, but it's also really tough to upgrade because none of these guys like Happ are a 'problem' per se, a flat 2 win regular doesn't kill you but on the whole it really caps the upside of the team's trajectory

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, chibears55 said:

Ian Happ is just a guy, meaning he's an average player that easy to replace and upgrade from.  He has his little hot moments here and there that gets people excited with his potential but for the most part his bat is quiet.

Depending on how things look with Caissie, PCA, and maybe even Alcantara at the end of the season,  I wouldn't be surprise if Hoyer looks to move him and his remaining 2 yrs of 40 mil.

When people post things like this, it becomes obvious they're not looking things up to either support or deny their opinion. Ian Happ, over the last two years, has been worth 6.8 fWAR. Thata good for 12th of *all* OFers in that time (qualified). 16th non-qualified. That's more than Randy Arozarena and just shy of Aldolis Garcia. That's not "just a guy". There's plenty of runway between bonafide star and JAG, and Happ easily lands the plane between those two areas. He's in the "pretty good" category. He's not special, but he's been 20% better than league average during that span offensively.

I get that what Happ does doesn't *feel* special. He's a LF'er, an unsexy position defensively. He doesn't hit 35+ bombs. He's not flashy. He's just a pretty good player. But we have *got* to stop hand wringing every five seconds and calling him a JAG. You know who's a JAG? Hunter Renfroe. Alex Verdugo. Two hitters who are very average offensively and have been worth 4+ fWAR less over the same two years as Happ. That's what a JAG looks like. Happ is solidly above that group. I wish the Cubs had some more players you'd consider to be above the pretty good category, but that's not an Ian Happ issue, either. Happ, on his own, is just fine.

[sneakypower]

9 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

When people post things like this, it becomes obvious they're not looking things up to either support or deny their opinion. Ian Happ, over the last two years, has been worth 6.8 fWAR. Thata good for 12th of *all* OFers in that time (qualified). 16th non-qualified. That's more than Randy Arozarena and just shy of Aldolis Garcia. That's not "just a guy". There's plenty of runway between bonafide star and JAG, and Happ easily lands the plane between those two areas. He's in the "pretty good" category. He's not special, but he's been 20% better than league average during that span offensively.

I get that what Happ does doesn't *feel* special. He's a LF'er, an unsexy position defensively. He doesn't hit 35+ bombs. He's not flashy. He's just a pretty good player. But we have *got* to stop hand wringing every five seconds and calling him a JAG. You know who's a JAG? Hunter Renfroe. Alex Verdugo. Two hitters who are very average offensively and have been worth 4+ fWAR less over the same two years as Happ. That's what a JAG looks like. Happ is solidly above that group. I wish the Cubs had some more players you'd consider to be above the pretty good category, but that's not an Ian Happ issue, either. Happ, on his own, is just fine.

last calendar year he's just 2.4 fWAR despite everyday PT which puts him in pretty unflattering company; maybe he goes on a surge and claws out of this grouping but none of these save Josh Lowe are valued highly by anyone – some were just bargain basement filler

[Jason Ross]

22 minutes ago, sneakypower said:

last calendar year he's just 2.4 fWAR despite everyday PT which puts him in pretty unflattering company; maybe he goes on a surge and claws out of this grouping but none of these save Josh Lowe are valued highly by anyone – some were just bargain basement filler

While not untrue, it also feels disingenuous to the discussion to use the last calendar year, as it conveniently replaces Happ's best month (April, 2023 - 135 wRC+) with his worst month (April 2024 - 92 wRC+) in that span. Many players are going to look far worse when you do that. It's just a standard arbitrary end point. 

When we just include last April in the data set, he jumps to 3.2 fWAR over that span, tied with Paul Goldschmidt and Pete Alonso, and just .2 fWAR shy of Arenado. That too is an example of arbitrary end points. 

Regardless, since Iann Happ worked on his plate approach (2022) he's been a very good performer. Star? No. But there is a disconnect at times between how pretty good Happ has been and how fans perceive him (as being a JAG) which just hasn't been supported by the data. As I stated, I get it, he's not sexy, he's just a solid player, and I think that's where the disconnect comes in.

He doesn't really need to go on a massive surge, as well. He didn't have a single month last year under 100 wRC+ In 2022, he had three and had three months over 130 wRC+. He's almost assuredly going to end up around a 120 wRC+ if he stays healthy. Put up a 120 wRC+ month and almost everything will be forgotten. He's had a tough couple of weeks. But it's probably just that...normal ebbs and flows in a baseball season that every player goes through. 

And I don't mean to sound like the Ian Happ Truther or defender of his honor, it just feels like the tide as turned into the wrong direction in terms of how we view Happ right now, likely due to his bad month and the Cubs, in general, poor offensive performance over the last 2-3 weeks. It's fine to point out Happ hasn't been good in April. I just don't think it should wade into hyperbolic territory where we call him "just a guy" or act like he's a bad contract. 

[sneakypower]

hey that's just the easiest default split i look to first

hopefully his big month 13 months ago can be recaptured soon and we'll all let up our gripes

[We Got The Whole 9]

His power has fallen off a cliff. The pulled flyballs are nowhere to be found. Most glaring this year is his xwoba vs offspeed is 204 and its 160 vs breaking pitches. Last year those numbers were 336 and 329. You can just tell that he is not identifying these pitches well by some of the swings that hes taken and their locations. Then again I feel this way about more than half of the lineup right now. 

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

When people post things like this, it becomes obvious they're not looking things up to either support or deny their opinion. Ian Happ, over the last two years, has been worth 6.8 fWAR. Thata good for 12th of *all* OFers in that time (qualified). 16th non-qualified. That's more than Randy Arozarena and just shy of Aldolis Garcia. That's not "just a guy". There's plenty of runway between bonafide star and JAG, and Happ easily lands the plane between those two areas. He's in the "pretty good" category. He's not special, but he's been 20% better than league average during that span offensively.

I get that what Happ does doesn't *feel* special. He's a LF'er, an unsexy position defensively. He doesn't hit 35+ bombs. He's not flashy. He's just a pretty good player. But we have *got* to stop hand wringing every five seconds and calling him a JAG. You know who's a JAG? Hunter Renfroe. Alex Verdugo. Two hitters who are very average offensively and have been worth 4+ fWAR less over the same two years as Happ. That's what a JAG looks like. Happ is solidly above that group. I wish the Cubs had some more players you'd consider to be above the pretty good category, but that's not an Ian Happ issue, either. Happ, on his own, is just fine.

He's a guy, he's not upper or lower, he's in between with his production., he's average. 

He's a 250 hitter, with a high 700s OPS, and 20 HR power

 

[squally1313]

7 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

He's a guy, he's not upper or lower, he's in between with his production., he's average. 

He's a 250 hitter, with a high 700s OPS, and 20 HR power

 

OPS for outfielders across the league right now is .689

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 hour ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

His power has fallen off a cliff. The pulled flyballs are nowhere to be found. Most glaring this year is his xwoba vs offspeed is 204 and its 160 vs breaking pitches. Last year those numbers were 336 and 329. You can just tell that he is not identifying these pitches well by some of the swings that hes taken and their locations. Then again I feel this way about more than half of the lineup right now. 

It seems clear to me that Happ is currently slumping(and maybe banged up), but overall I think there's some environmental factors too.  League-wide IsoP is down 20ish points so far(full season to partial season), and playing most games in April Wrigley plus series at SD, SEA, and NYM aren't great for power either.  If he's still hovering around a league average line come the all-star break I'll be more concerned, but lots of weird stuff happens in a 30 game sample.

[Jason Ross]

22 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

He's a guy, he's not upper or lower, he's in between with his production., he's average. 

He's a 250 hitter, with a high 700s OPS, and 20 HR power

 

We. Have. Better. Ways. To. Evaluate. Players. C'mon, man. Just like Peanut *you* know this. 

He's literally *not* average.

League Average LF 2022: 101 wRC+

League Average LF 2023: 100 wRC+

Happ over those years: 120 wRC+, 118 wRC+

He's roughly 20% better than average. So no. He's not just a guy. 

 

[We Got The Whole 9]

20 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

He's a guy, he's not upper or lower, he's in between with his production., he's average. 

He's a 250 hitter, with a high 700s OPS, and 20 HR power

 

Jeez man it's like your brain is stuck in the steroid days. He's been a 120 hitter. You know what average is.

[We Got The Whole 9]

14 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

It seems clear to me that Happ is currently slumping(and maybe banged up), but overall I think there's some environmental factors too.  League-wide IsoP is down 20ish points so far(full season to partial season), and playing most games in April Wrigley plus series at SD, SEA, and NYM aren't great for power either.  If he's still hovering around a league average line come the all-star break I'll be more concerned, but lots of weird stuff happens in a 30 game sample.

I think it's largely a pitch-identification issue. Sliders down and in are absolutely killing him and obviously the low and away change-up is still most pitchers putaway offerings for him. He has a 400 woba against fastballs. He's just doing jack squat with all other pitches.

 

 

[Rex Buckingham]

edit: posted in the wrong game thread

Edited May 3, 2024 by Rex Buckingham

[PeanutPunch33]

6 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Oh booo hooo $15 a year on a blank payroll for a switch hitter who gets on base, has power, plays defense, has no makeup issues or serious injuries, and was drafted by the org…This is the kind of lazy, NFL-esque “analysis” I am not looking forward to out of Future 2.0. The counting of pennies is only going to get worse 

lmao it's actually 20 million a year and what power?    when is the last time he's hit a home run?  The fluke grand slam he got almost 3 weeks ago?   If he was on the open market, nobody is paying him anything near what the Cubs gave him.  Maybe the Cubs wouldn't have to count pennies if they stopped handing out sunk-cost contracts to players like Jason Heyward, Ian Happ and Trey Mancini 

Edited May 3, 2024 by PeanutPunch33