4/25/24 - Astros (Justin Verlander) @ Cubs (Javier Assad) - 1:20P WFT on Marquee

[Jason Ross]

4 hours ago, mul21 said:

@1908_Cubs Is his in zone whiff % way up in the last couple weeks?

Yes. In-zone whiff since Saturday (a random date) is well above his season number of 20%, all the way up to 32%.  His chase is a little up to, by a few points. In his defense, pitchers are throwing him really well right now. Crushing him out and away and he's likely protecting that painting. That's just going to be hard for anyone. I think he'll be fine once pitchers stop painting him. He's gotten very little to hit. 

You can see they're petrified of coming inside on him right now, where Busch has killed pitchers. Eventually, guys are going to stop painting against him and they'll have to come back in the zone. I think he'll be a-okay. 

[Thurman Merman]

Btw I know people like to horsefeathers on zaidman, but his call for pcas Homer was legitimately good.

Edited April 26, 2024 by Thurman Merman

[squally1313]

3 hours ago, KCCub said:

 

hm, weird

[mul21]

27 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

hm, weird

Like when they're not ridiculously over worked they're fine?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

22 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Like when they're not ridiculously over worked they're fine?

looking into it

[WhyCantWeWin]

4 hours ago, Crusader said:

And I couldn’t be happier. His 66% k rate is still a bit high.

Bro he’s had 4 PA lol

[Crusader]

24 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Bro he’s had 4 PA lol

He had ABs last year, and he’s had AAA ABs that haven’t been much better either where he’s hitting .200 with a 30% k-rate. I couldn’t be happier for him on hitting a homer, but the dude has a more questionable hit tool than even Wisdom.
 

I really hope he figures things out, because a good PCA helps the team long term, but MLB isn’t usually the place where people make that adjustment.

Edited April 26, 2024 by Crusader

[Stratos]

11 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Agreed. However, Mervis is also 26 and, while I'd still like to give him another 100 PAs before making a decision, 106 PAs of 32 wRC+ is really bad for a guy who only brings value via his bat. Even if he doesn't start getting hits, he needs to start making better contact for there to be any reasonable hope of him ever being more than a AAAA guy. 

When he calms down from the nerves and gets a bit of success and stops pressing I think he'll probably be fine.  He has power, a pretty good eye (as he also showed in ST), and a decent hit tool for a power guy.  There's no reason whatsoever to be concerned about him at this point.

[mul21]

8 hours ago, Crusader said:

He had ABs last year, and he’s had AAA ABs that haven’t been much better either where he’s hitting .200 with a 30% k-rate. I couldn’t be happier for him on hitting a homer, but the dude has a more questionable hit tool than even Wisdom.
 

I really hope he figures things out, because a good PCA helps the team long term, but MLB isn’t usually the place where people make that adjustment.

Hit tool isn't his problem, swing decisions are and that's a much more fixable issue.

[Crusader]

30 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Hit tool isn't his problem, swing decisions are and that's a much more fixable issue.

No, I'm sorry. Yes, he also has swing decision problems, but his hit tool is very much a major problem on top of that. He only has a projected hit tool of 35 by fangraphs with hopefully a 40 grade at his peak.

He had 48.5% zone contact rate last year in his MLB plate appearances... He's sitting at 50% in his 4 ABs so far this year. That's absolutely atrocious. Even someone like Patrick Wisdom is at 73% for making contact for balls in the strike zone.

He's still a prospect, and maybe he figures things out, but if you're not majorly concerned with his contact rate, you should be. I couldn't pull up his AAA numbers to see how they compare, but small sample size it's not great so far. The only reason PCA is up right now is because his floor is so high based on gold glove defense. His offensive profile has been a mess. Bringing him up and throwing him into the fire like this is a bit of a disservice to him, but we're trying to win games, and we don't really have much CF depth. Crazier things have happened before, and maybe things do just click for him, and again, I'd be so happy for him if it did, but he's probably going to take kidney shot after kidney shot here for a while.

Edited April 26, 2024 by Crusader

[BigbadB]

Anyone know why the Astros manager got tossed yesterday? He seemed to be having a normal discussion with the ump and out of the blue, the ump ejected him. I thought the ump was calling the balls and strikes pretty consistently, even if I thought he was getting a little bit crazy on the high strike. The one to Madrigal was crazy high, and to the shortest dude on the team. Madrigal couldn't have hit that ball if he had a step stool. Anyway, the Astros manager must have made some suggestions about the ump's mother. 

[Jason Ross]

49 minutes ago, Crusader said:

No, I'm sorry. Yes, he also has a swing decision problems, but his hit tool is very much a major problem on top of that. He only has a projected hit tool of 35 by fangraphs with hopefully a 40 grade at his peak.

He had 48.5% zone contact rate last year in his MLB plate appearances... He's sitting at 50% in his 4 ABs so far this year. That's absolutely atrocious. Even someone like Patrick Wisdom is at 73% for making contact for balls in the strike zone.

He's still a prospect, and maybe he figures things out, but if you're not majorly concerned with his contact rate, you should be. I couldn't pull up his AAA numbers to see how they compare, but small sample size it's not great so far.

So, I think we need to understand a few things:

1. FG's scouting reports are not great now a days. They've been lagging behind for years and while I really like Logenhagen, there seems to be a lack of funding and an inability on the FG team to keep up with prospect rankings with others.

2. There's not enough data in his MLB data set to matter. Please stop using this data set when we have larger, better data sets out there. These are small sample sizes that have no where near enough sample to matter, and are wildly effected by luck/small swings, etc. We have his MiLB Triple-A data which is a much larger data set, and much more clear. 

- His in-zone whiff% has dropped from 2023 to 2024 by roughly 5%. His in-zone whiff currently sits at 22% in Triple-A.  Current Triple-A in-zone whiff league number sits at 19.3%. Contact% has improved from 68% to 72%. League Triple-A contact% is 72%. His Triple-A data suggests he does not have a hit-tool issue and we're seeing a good increase in ability to make contact from his first taste to current.

- Not only that, we're seeing pitchers attack, in the zone, his weakness in his swing (up and away). This isn't some unique issue, we see, especially LHH with LA geared swings, struggle with this pitch (I.E See Michael Busch). And yet, the in-zone whiff has gone down

- His chase rate is the issue. His chase% has gone up nearly 10% this year, and has doubled in hitter-count situations to over 50% chase rate.

- We also have seen a massive increase in swing%. Just under 10% increase.

This is not someone who has a hit tool issue. He doesn't have a 70-hit tool, but this isn't a hit tool issue. This is someone who has an approach issue right now. He's always been hyper aggressive, His swing% in 0-0 counts has jumped. His swing% in hitters counts has jumped. But his swing% in pitcher's counts hasn't. And these aren't small jumps. Again, like 10% increases in these situations. That's a big jump.

So...why would we see the swing% jump in early counts and hitters counts but not with two strikes? Why the chase rate in hitters count through the roof? Probably one or two things. Maybe a combination. This reads like a hitter who is either desperately trying to stay away from two strike counts and away from the high up-away pitch by swinging at more pitches. That wouldn't be surprising to see him struggle initially to implement a brand new approach at the plate and figure that out. It also reads like an emotional 22 year old kid pressing and forcing the issue instead of letting the game come to him, which would make perfect sense for someone who struggled for the first time in his professional career and with the hype he has. But again, let me stress this: this doesn't read like a hit tool issue. This is entirely an approach issue right now. But it's also a fixable approach issue. 

[Crusader]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

So, I think we need to understand a few things:

1. FG's scouting reports are not great now a days. They've been lagging behind for years and while I really like Logenhagen, there seems to be a lack of funding and an inability on the FG team to keep up with prospect rankings with others.

2. There's not enough data in his MLB data set to matter. Please stop using this data set when we have larger, better data sets out there. These are small sample sizes that have no where near enough sample to matter, and are wildly effected by luck/small swings, etc. We have his MiLB Triple-A data which is a much larger data set, and much more clear. 

- His in-zone whiff% has dropped from 2023 to 2024 by roughly 5%. His in-zone whiff currently sits at 22% in Triple-A.  Current Triple-A in-zone whiff league number sits at 19.3%. Contact% has improved from 68% to 72%. League Triple-A contact% is 72%. His Triple-A data suggests he does not have a hit-tool issue and we're seeing a good increase in ability to make contact from his first taste to current.

- Not only that, we're seeing pitchers attack, in the zone, his weakness in his swing (up and away). This isn't some unique issue, we see, especially LHH with LA geared swings, struggle with this pitch (I.E See Michael Busch). And yet, the in-zone whiff has gone down

- His chase rate is the issue. His chase% has gone up nearly 10% this year, and has doubled in hitter-count situations to over 50% chase rate.

- We also have seen a massive increase in swing%. Just under 10% increase.

This is not someone who has a hit tool issue. He doesn't have a 70-hit tool, but this isn't a hit tool issue. This is someone who has an approach issue right now. He's always been hyper aggressive, His swing% in 0-0 counts has jumped. His swing% in hitters counts has jumped. But his swing% in pitcher's counts hasn't. And these aren't small jumps. Again, like 10% increases in these situations. That's a big jump.

So...why would we see the swing% jump in early counts and hitters counts but not with two strikes? Why the chase rate in hitters count through the roof? Probably one or two things. Maybe a combination. This reads like a hitter who is either desperately trying to stay away from two strike counts and away from the high up-away pitch by swinging at more pitches. That wouldn't be surprising to see him struggle initially to implement a brand new approach at the plate and figure that out. It also reads like an emotional 22 year old kid pressing and forcing the issue instead of letting the game come to him, which would make perfect sense for someone who struggled for the first time in his professional career and with the hype he has. But again, let me stress this: this doesn't read like a hit tool issue. This is entirely an approach issue right now. But it's also a fixable approach issue. 

If you’re not a fan of some of the scouting on FG anymore, fair enough. It depends on who did the scouting, what part of the season they saw, but nonetheless, there are experts, that actually get paid to do this, that have some concerns.

As far as the sample set goes, I’d refer you to a very confident 1908 on PSD in 2023 where he stated that 60 ABs was a sizeable enough sample set to draw conclusions from. I’d also argue that saying he has an average AAA hit tool in his second go-around in AAA doesn’t somehow mean his hit tool isn’t a problem in MLB. Yes, he’s still younger than league average, so there’s hope for some development down the road.

Theres also a big difference between AAA pitching and MLB pitching, as well as AAA hitting and MLB hitting. An average AAA hit tool is a below average MLB hit tool, and having a 30% K rate at AAA is pretty concerning. As we saw in the ABs yesterday, he was also getting beaten down in the zone as well. It’s not like he’s only getting high fastballs he cannot catch up to where there’s just one thing that needs to be fixed. As it stands, he has a below average hit tool for MLB. Hopefully that’s something he can improve upon as he develops.
 

Is there some pressing going on? Most definitely, but there’s more going on here under the hood.

Edited April 26, 2024 by Crusader

[CubinNY]

1 hour ago, BigbadB said:

Anyone know why the Astros manager got tossed yesterday? He seemed to be having a normal discussion with the ump and out of the blue, the ump ejected him. I thought the ump was calling the balls and strikes pretty consistently, even if I thought he was getting a little bit crazy on the high strike. The one to Madrigal was crazy high, and to the shortest dude on the team. Madrigal couldn't have hit that ball if he had a step stool. Anyway, the Astros manager must have made some suggestions about the ump's mother. 

He was griping about balls and strikes. I think he was frustrated about the series. He has to be on the hot seat. 

[squally1313]

11 minutes ago, Crusader said:

As far as the sample set goes, I’d refer you to a very confident 1908 on PSD in 2023 where he stated that 60 ABs was a sizeable enough sample set to draw conclusions from.

30% of the way there!

[Crusader]

9 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

30% of the way there!

Well, I was also referencing the ST ABs, but true enough lol. 😂

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Crusader said:

If you’re not a fan of some of the scouting on FG anymore, fair enough. It depends on who did the scouting, what part of the season they saw, but nonetheless, there are experts, that actually get paid to do this, that have some concerns.

As far as the sample set goes, I’d refer you to a very confident 1908 on PSD in 2023 where he stated that 60 ABs was a sizeable enough sample set to draw conclusions from. I’d also argue that saying he has an average AAA hit tool in his second go-around in AAA doesn’t somehow mean his hit tool isn’t a problem in MLB. Yes, he’s still younger than league average, so there’s hope for some development down the road.

Theres also a big difference between AAA pitching and MLB pitching, as well as AAA hitting and MLB hitting. An average AAA hit tool is a below average MLB hit tool, and having a 30% K rate at AAA is pretty concerning. As we saw in the ABs yesterday, he was also getting beaten down in the zone as well. It’s not like he’s only getting high fastballs he cannot catch up to where there’s just one thing that needs to be fixed. As it stands, he has a below average hit tool for MLB. Hopefully that’s something he can improve upon as he develops.
 

Is there some pressing going on? Most definitely, but there’s more going on here under the hood.

60 PA's can be enough PA's to make statements on things...it depends on the statistic at hand and the discussion. . When we're discussing strikeout rates, K% doesn't stabilize until 50-60 PA's, depending on the source. I've linked two sources here, Fangraphs (60 PAs) and RedLegNation which has it at 50 PAs. Regardless of whether we're going to set the line for stabilization at 50 or 60 PA's, Pete Crow-Armstrong currently has 23 at the MLB level...not even half of the low end. So I stand behind my comment: this is not a data set that matters today. We should be discussing his swing%, contact% and the likes currently of his Triple-A data if want to discuss what he's done. As well, we should be paying attention, specifically to changes in that data set; the changes I highlighted.

Secondly, no one here thinks MLB pitching is the same as Triple-A pitching, let's not shift the discussion or create new tangents. No one has mentioned they're the same. With that said, his Triple-A data is relevant for as discussion on his hit tool. You're also the one who brought up his scouting data; I didn't bring up his MiLB information in a vacuum. If he had hit-tool issues worth concerning ourselves with currently, he wouldn't have league average contact% or improving in-zone whiff issues. There's nothing he's done that suggests a hit tool issue as of today.

Again what he got beat at yesterday in a few PA's is nothing. Shoehei Ohtani got beat on fastballs on the outside third of the plate yesterday, yet on the season that's a hot spot for him. We don't use single game, or single pitch information as anything other than anecdotal. C'mon, man, you know this. 

You're making a lot of sweeping, declarative statements based on sample sizes that are simply not large enough to do that. They're not even half large enough to form a real opinion on at the MLB level yet. No one here is going to say his first 23 PA's have been perfect, but they're not a relevant sample size, either. Pulling his K% or contact rate right now is a misuse of that information. It's small enough that he needs like 2 days to flip it on it's head. 

Is his hit-tool MLB ready? Well, we're going to find out, aren't we? What we can say is that thus far his hit-tool has been league-average in Triple-A, and he's improved his contact rate from 2023 to 2024. One thing we do know, is that hitters's ability to make contact with the baseball is a statistic that correlates relatively highly to the MLB from Triple-A. So does strikeout and walk rate. Approach transfers. Contact ability transfers. PCA is in a weird intersection of having a hit tool right now that looks good enough and an approach that is wild and uncontrollable. Why his approach has gotten worse and not better is the key here. If they can get that moving in the right direction, he'll probably be fine. 

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, BigbadB said:

Anyone know why the Astros manager got tossed yesterday? He seemed to be having a normal discussion with the ump and out of the blue, the ump ejected him. I thought the ump was calling the balls and strikes pretty consistently, even if I thought he was getting a little bit crazy on the high strike. The one to Madrigal was crazy high, and to the shortest dude on the team. Madrigal couldn't have hit that ball if he had a step stool. Anyway, the Astros manager must have made some suggestions about the ump's mother. 

I was very strange. Almost looked like he went out there and told the umpire to eject him. Like some sort of thing to fire up the team. He definitely did not appear to be arguing anything. And if he was arguing, what could it have been? 

[Crusader]

38 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

60 PA's can be enough PA's to make statements on things...it depends on the statistic at hand and the discussion. . When we're discussing strikeout rates, K% doesn't stabilize until 50-60 PA's, depending on the source. I've linked two sources here, Fangraphs (60 PAs) and RedLegNation which has it at 50 PAs. Regardless of whether we're going to set the line for stabilization at 50 or 60 PA's, Pete Crow-Armstrong currently has 23 at the MLB level...not even half of the low end. So I stand behind my comment: this is not a data set that matters today. We should be discussing his swing%, contact% and the likes currently of his Triple-A data if want to discuss what he's done. As well, we should be paying attention, specifically to changes in that data set; the changes I highlighted.

Secondly, no one here thinks MLB pitching is the same as Triple-A pitching, let's not shift the discussion or create new tangents. No one has mentioned they're the same. With that said, his Triple-A data is relevant for as discussion on his hit tool. You're also the one who brought up his scouting data; I didn't bring up his MiLB information in a vacuum. If he had hit-tool issues worth concerning ourselves with currently, he wouldn't have league average contact% or improving in-zone whiff issues. There's nothing he's done that suggests a hit tool issue as of today.

Again what he got beat at yesterday in a few PA's is nothing. Shoehei Ohtani got beat on fastballs on the outside third of the plate yesterday, yet on the season that's a hot spot for him. We don't use single game, or single pitch information as anything other than anecdotal. C'mon, man, you know this. 

You're making a lot of sweeping, declarative statements based on sample sizes that are simply not large enough to do that. They're not even half large enough to form a real opinion on at the MLB level yet. No one here is going to say his first 23 PA's have been perfect, but they're not a relevant sample size, either. Pulling his K% or contact rate right now is a misuse of that information. It's small enough that he needs like 2 days to flip it on it's head. 

Is his hit-tool MLB ready? Well, we're going to find out, aren't we? What we can say is that thus far his hit-tool has been league-average in Triple-A, and he's improved his contact rate from 2023 to 2024. One thing we do know, is that hitters's ability to make contact with the baseball is a statistic that correlates relatively highly to the MLB from Triple-A. So does strikeout and walk rate. Approach transfers. Contact ability transfers. PCA is in a weird intersection of having a hit tool right now that looks good enough and an approach that is wild and uncontrollable. Why his approach has gotten worse and not better is the key here. If they can get that moving in the right direction, he'll probably be fine. 

I think I actually disagree with one of your overarching conclusions that you’re basing your entire analysis on i.e. that in zone contact % = hit tool. I think it probably should depend on a combination of others factors, and I’m pretty hesitant to even make a suggestion as to what those other factors are. Probably some combination of zone contact %, K-rate, and barrel %, exit velocity, and launch angle?

Otherwise, you’re also suggesting Patrick Wisdom has a marginally above average hit tool (73.7% in 2022 when he faced both lefties and righties), and I don’t think that’s something anyone on this board would agree with.

Edited April 26, 2024 by Crusader

[CubinNY]

21 minutes ago, Crusader said:

 

Otherwise, you’re also suggesting Patrick Wisdom has a marginally above average hit tool (73.7% in 2022 when he faced both lefties and righties), and I don’t think that’s something anyone on this board would agree with.

As long as the ball is in the bottom 2/3 of the zone. 

[Jason Ross]

45 minutes ago, Crusader said:

I think I actually disagree with one of your overarching conclusions that you’re basing your entire analysis on i.e. that in zone contact % = hit tool. I think it probably should depend on a combination of others factors, and I’m pretty hesitant to even make a suggestion as to what those other factors are. Probably some combination of zone contact %, K-rate, and barrel %, exit velocity, and launch angle?

Otherwise, you’re also suggesting Patrick Wisdom has a marginally above average hit tool (73.7% in 2022 when he faced both lefties and righties), and I don’t think that’s something anyone on this board would agree with.

Pete Crow-Armstrong 2024 vs Triple-A 2024 Average

Contact%: 71.5% vs 72.4%
Barrel%: 18.1% vs 17.5%
K%: 28.9% vs 23.1%
In-Zone-Whiff%: 22.1% vs 19.3%
Swing%: 63.1% vs 46.1%
Chase%: 47.7% vs 26.6%

Hit and approach should be viewed as separate issues, IMO, because they have different solutions. Pete Crow-Armstrong has shown, at least, average ability to make contact at Triple-A so far in 2024. He's making contact, barrels, and the like within rounding errors of league average. Where his numbers veer off is in swing decision and aggression as seen at his swing% and his chase%. His ability to take bat and put it on ball, controlling the bat through the zone appears fine. He struggles to decide when to let the bat fly.  Context matters, and within that context we can see that his strikeouts are a result of approach. If he were to control his approach in a more league-average manner, his K% would almost assuredly reflect a league average strikeout rate. That, to me, is a very separate and different concern. 

Also, it should be noted that Patrick Wisdom in 2022, made contact 63.5% of the time. MLB contact% was 74.4%. His in-zone-whiff% was 26.4% compared to league average which was 17.9%.  I would classify Patrick Wisdom's 2022 as a below average hit tool. Yes.

[Crusader]

28 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Pete Crow-Armstrong 2024 vs Triple-A 2024 Average

Contact%: 71.5% vs 72.4%
Barrel%: 18.1% vs 17.5%
K%: 28.9% vs 23.1%
In-Zone-Whiff%: 22.1% vs 19.3%
Swing%: 63.1% vs 46.1%
Chase%: 47.7% vs 26.6%

Hit and approach should be viewed as separate issues, IMO, because they have different solutions. Pete Crow-Armstrong has shown, at least, average ability to make contact at Triple-A so far in 2024. He's making contact, barrels, and the like within rounding errors of league average. Where his numbers veer off is in swing decision and aggression as seen at his swing% and his chase%. His ability to take bat and put it on ball, controlling the bat through the zone appears fine. He struggles to decide when to let the bat fly.  Context matters, and within that context we can see that his strikeouts are a result of approach. If he were to control his approach in a more league-average manner, his K% would almost assuredly reflect a league average strikeout rate. That, to me, is a very separate and different concern. 

Also, it should be noted that Patrick Wisdom in 2022, made contact 63.5% of the time. MLB contact% was 74.4%. His in-zone-whiff% was 26.4% compared to league average which was 17.9%.  I would classify Patrick Wisdom's 2022 as a below average hit tool. Yes.

Are we using different sources for getting in zone contact %? I'm using baseball savant, or is there a better site out there?

 

Edited April 26, 2024 by Crusader

[Jason Ross]

14 minutes ago, Crusader said:

Are we using different sources for getting in zone contact %? I'm using baseball savant

 

I am using TruMedia which uses Baseball Savant as it's foundation. We are using the same data set.

What you are using is zone-contact, not contact%. This is only contact in the strike-zone. For comparison's sake, this is the mirror to in-zone-whiff (which I used). To showcase this, if 100% would be making contact on every swing in the zone and Patrick Wisdom had a 26.4% in-zone-whiff his zone-contact% would be...73.6% (there's likely a small rounding thing going on to the 73.7% zone-contact%, but you get the idea). You're mixing up contact% and zone-contact%. That's no shade...there's a billion numbers and statistics out there and they're all fiddly. Easy to do, I'm guilty of mixing up plenty.

To clarify, I used both contact% and in-zone-whiff. Contact% is his ability to make contact on all swings (including chase pitches) while in-zone-whiff shows ability to make contact on strikes alone. He was well below league average for both in 2022. These are also the two numbers I used when discussing Pete Crow-Armstrong; his total contact% as well as his in-zone-whiff (which shows contact% vs strikes). 

[Crusader]

11 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I am using TruMedia which uses Baseball Savant as it's foundation.

What you are using is zone-contact. This is only contact in the strike-zone. For comparison's sake, this is the mirror to in-zone-whiff. To showcase this, if 100% would be making contact on every swing in the zone, if Patrick Wisdom had a 25.4% in-zone-whiff his contact% would be...73.6% (there's likely a small rounding thing going on to the 73.7%).

Notice, I used both contact% and in-zone-whiff. Contact% is his ability to make contact on all swings (including chase pitches) while in-zone-whiff shows ability to make contact on strikes alone. He was well below league average for both in 2022.

Ahh, okay, so average zone-contact, if I'm reading this right on savant on strikes is 82%, and Wisdom was at 73.7%, which would have him below average (which makes sense), and Pete Crow's so far is at about 50% (small sample size of 20 some ABs) MLB stats. Is that why you use TruMedia to get access to AAA stats?

I wish there was some way to measure when they take emergency swings to factor those out to calculate a true contact % rate.

Edited April 26, 2024 by Crusader

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Crusader said:

Ahh, okay, so average zone-contact, if I'm reading this right on savant on strikes is 82%, and Wisdom was at 73.7%, which would have him below average (which makes sense), and Pete Crow's so far is at about 50% (small sample size of 20 some ABs).

I wish there was some way to measure when they take emergency swings to factor those out to calculate a base contact % rate.

Yep. They're two different statistics set up to show two different abilities. No worries getting them mixed up a bit, there's so many numbers out there, with similar-ish-names, I've done it plenty. 

My guess is that the amount of emergency swings is such a small number of total swing%, and so subjective, that it wouldn't really factor in or change much. Hard to determine intent of a swing, like, when is a guy emergency hacking vs really? What's the line? Does it really effect much when we have 600 PA sample sizes and likely swing numbers in the 750-800 range? Probably not.