Jason Ross

I also think that's fair, too. And why the down-list is so murky. Like, I wouldn't have Ariel Armas in my top-20, but would certainly have Dylan Blomker in it somewhere but anyone who has it flopped? What am I going to do? I think both are very possible. I think there are probably 20-25 players you could slot into the 11-20 range and I'd have an issue arguing with you. And most of those names (maybe all of them) are in High-A or below. It feels like a system we are not going to gain a lot of clarity on for a year or two, which makes it cloudy, but simultaneously exciting.

First off, welcome to NSBB! Secondly, I whole heartedly agree. I like what is happening in the system and how the Cubs draft. Their misses have been in odd-ball scouting years (2020 and 2021) where the whole baseball world got turned upside down. Beyond that, they have drafted well and have consistently turned MiLB talent into MLB talent in one way (promotions) or another (trade). Really, that's what you ask for. Even more promising is their ability to find talent beyond the top-10 or first-round. They have found prospects in the second round and beyond (no easy feat). The one knock is the pitching development and the team feels like they have solved that with Tyler Zombro. Truly, I feel good where they're going as an organization in how they handle young players. They've shown the ability to draft well. And they're also showing the ability to backfill.

Getting old is a bitch. My old ass passed out with Webb on the mound, two outs and bases loaded (I stupidly got in bed). Missed all the fun.

I think at the MLB level, players aren't just showing up with brand new swing paths on their own whim. It's a bit frustrating, I'm sure. However, I think there's probably an aspect that we're overlooking and they got lucky: they lost Tyler Austin right away and Busch has put up a 108 wRC+ against LHP. That's the sixth best LHH 1b against LHP in baseball. Its allowed them to have an extra bench spot all year and not need a specific "you hit all the lefties" type. Now, there are lots of arguments you could make, such as "that isn't an expensive fix" and I wouldn't disagree. But availability matters, and he's been a fine hitter against both RHP and LHP. He's just not really bad against LHP and gangbusters against RHP like he could be, as well.

Not approach; I think it's specifically the swing. His swing last year was essentially perfected for hitting RHP. Tilt and everything. Geared to hit the types of pitches a RHP would throw a LHH. But LHP attack LHH differently, so you have to angle and tilt a bit differently. And you can't really have a bag of swings; it's one or another.

His bat speed is a lot lower. When Busch was hitting LHP decently in the minors his slugging against them went way down but he managed to OBP his way to decent results. I think this is his tradeoff. I'd probably rather have last year Busch who didn't hit LHP, if we're being honest.

Yeah, Grichuk is a pretty bad matchup for him. Gamble for sure. But I also understand the Cubs probably want to get the BP back to being in a good space and if they can buy an inning, especially when Shota is having a very good game (he made, what, one really bad pitch all night?) I understand the roll-of-the-dice.

I mean, Shota has 20 whiffs and 10 K's tonight. I think we're probably being a little harsh.

I think he switched his swing to hit LHP better. But I haven't super dug-into it.

Baseball is truly a stupid sport. But it's less stupid when it works in your favor.

Guasman, Holmes and Boyd will definitely be your top-3. But the Cubs will need a fourth SP at some point. We saw last year that the short-rest didn't work out for anyone after a 3-game set. So someone in a 5-game or a 7-game will be asked to get a few outs. If you're looking between Shota, Peterson, Rea and Assad, one of those guys has a consistent ability to miss bats. None of them are overpowering and all are home run threats for the other team against good lineups. But Shota should dial up the velo in a 4-inning outing and that puts him well over the top here. I wouldn't be overly jazzed with that idea but out of a four guy grouping of "blech" I think opener/Shota (12 outs) and then the bullpen sounds like your best plan.

Rea and Assad have no business starting a playoff game. I get that Shota can give up home runs in a frustrating manner, but the Cubs are likely going to have a few guys like Steele, Brown, and Cabrera to go long out of the pen. Shota isn't going to have to go six. They're going to ask him to get 12 outs once in a series. That's it. And between Shota, Read, Assad, Shota is by far the better option.

Truly, the dumbest of all the sports at times.

It's something with Shota. Both catchers started this with him weeks ago.