Jason Ross

Well, whether or not you're trying to do that, I think you're in the wrong place with this question and what you're looking for. You're using it as a 1:1 predictive data point and trying to figure how the Cubs were supposed to average 89 wins and averaged instead, around 87. Variance. It's baked in. It's an imperfect statistic. I like WAR but its not designed to do this. I just don't think you're using it correctly. The question shouldn't be "How can the Cubs come up 2 games short?" but "How can the Cubs make sure that variance isn't as big of a deal?" and that answer is: build a better team. Part of that is on Jed. Part of that is on Tom. As an organization, they've proven they can win games. They've proven they can build an elite side of baseball. They've proven they can make the playoffs. I'd argue they've mostly proven to build a consistent winner. Now it's time to prove you can do more.

I wouldn't use WAR this way. It's a great value number, but people like to play the gotcha-game on them. They built an 89 win team (on average) and have landed around that value (rounding gets you to 87). Variance is well within a few wins. There isn't really a discrepancy. The issue is that they keep building ~90 win teams and they have gotten some weird bad luck. They got some late injuries last year that hurt them in the playoffs. They had a lot of injuries this year. Even with positive variance there's only so much you can expect. It's a good way to build consistent playoff teams, but we're seeing there is some limitations in that build. The fix is simple. Build a 95 win team and when you have some variance you're looking at the 98-92 win range versus the 93-87 win range.

I also didn't imply Skubal.

I'd recommend listening. Go back to last year at this time. The talk was "strikeouts" and to the Cubs' credit they added Cabrera (who struck out 25.8% of hitters the year before and had big stuff) and Phil Maton who was top of the chart whiff% and chase% the year before. The Cubs don't leak information a lot but they generally do what they say they will do. Jed was also pretty transparent about the leadup to acquiring Tucker and then how things went down as well. We can certainly point to the fact that neither Maton nor Cabrera worked out in 2026. Choose who you want to blame there; plenty to pass around. But I think when Jed speaks, he's generally tells you what he's going to do. He said today that they need to do better pitching, mentioned, again, that they were too reliant on the defense and that it likely wouldn't be the bullpen they put the money into. We'll see how much money, though. The debate is less "will they do what Jed said" but more "how far will they go to accomplish it?"

Sato would be really fun. Yes, please.

That said he was away for personal reasons (and may not want to coach). He's also been a high ranking pitching dev guy in orgs, and with Zombro, that won't be the case here. So hard to tell if there's a fit.

Ooops. Not Seiya. I meant Stroman and wrote Semien!

I think the entire "no one gets the good NPB guys" doesn't work when you realize Okamota, Shota, and Seiya aren't on the Dodgers. Imai went to Houston (hasn't worked out). Lee went to the SFG (from Korea). Yes, the Dodgers do have guys like Yamamoto, Ohtani and Sasaki. But Sasaki was a raw prospect who hasn't hit yet, Yamamoto and Ohtani were guys who make a billion dollars, essentially. One of them, almost literally. They can't and always won't win them, however. The Cubs have invested heavily into NPB scouting. Heavily. They hired a guy of Japanese decent as a high ranking scout. The Cubs can/will continue to invest in the NPB and not without an eye of signing guys. If there's one thing I'm confident in it's that the Cubs are very unlikely to enter the 2027 season without a Japanese player on the roster. Which one? Your guess is as good as mine (I think maybe Taira might be up their alley, though).

It'll be tricky. I think a lot of us had the same questions last year "How do you replicate 2025 with the loss of Kyle Tucker?" and the Cubs did a great job on the offensive front. And they did, at least on paper, throughout the offseason and 2026 put more resources into the pitching side. They did a multi-year FA deal for a RP. They traded for a young, controlled SP. More could have been used (and obviously with hindsight, was needed - a failure on the Cubs part here) but they did an admirable job last offseason to get better. A healthier pitching staff and we'd have seen more of it. The good news is that the pitching was so bad that improvement there shouldn't be that hard. Like, don't have the worst staff in baseball and you can likely find any wins you lose from PCA going from "historically good" to just "Very very good" or something. Corner OF will be a tricky answer but one I think you can find ways around; it isn't like we're needing a SS. Add in the CBA conundrum and the offseason should be interesting in spurts. And good reminder Jed jumped the market for Semien las CBA. With NPB teams posting players, usually in November, there should be a little rush to get those guys in before Dec 1st as well. I'm not sure how a lack of a CBA will be factored into that. Everything is doable. It's tricky. But I don't think they'll fall apart as a team - they should still be good. Jed does have work to do, though to take the next step and that's needed this offseason. Can't be flawed like this any more.

Same here. They're great dudes.

The Cubs are clearly altruistic and want to let others keep playing. It's selfish to not let others play...

That sucked.

Well, my general point remains: his velo isn't what it was in the first. He's much more hittable now. That doesn't mean a hit will have landed. The Cubs haven't hit well. That's a separate thing.

horsefeathers this horsefeathers.