Marlins (Puk) vs Cubs (Taillon): 4/19/24, 1:20pm, Marquee

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, KCCub said:

I want to be clear, my disappointment is not Wisdom vs Canario specifically, as there's multiple ways we could of had both Canario and Wisdom in the lineup today. It's more so how we've configured our bench from a macro strategy the past couple years and selecting to use vets with low ceilings (Mancini, Hosmer, Tauchman, Cooper, Barnhart, etc) vs our own young guys who might be riskier, but also provide more upside. The same things were said last year about Velazquez's big league success was a result of being shielded. I fully understand from a micro strategy, that for instance, Wisdom is probably the better play today on paper than Canario, but damn it sucks that it's very apparent he's not going to get a shot with the upside he showed in his 2022 season. He's going to get passed by PCA/Caissie and we'll likely have to move him next year. 

 

Summary - I'm risk aggressive and even with Canario's contact concerns he's still produced at every level, I don't think it's extremely far fetched to give him more of a shot when our typical bench players have career wRC+'s of 56, 90, 97, 108, & 111. 

Canario has produced, but I think the issue here is the how he's produced. He's done so in a way that suggests producing right now at the MLB level is not overly likely. Consider this: the Cubs were pretty aggressive in pursuing Michael Busch. They traded two draft picks they thought of quite highly (based on slot and strategy) and who the industry thought highly of to acquire a first baseman who struggled in his first run at the MLB level. He struggled in his first run in Triple-A, too, in 2022. But the processes where there. Canario's production comes from an area of questionable process. 

On the same vein, I think people are kind of missing the forest through the trees on Nelson. Nelson Velazquez has a 130+ wRC+ this year, but he's done so with a .417 BABIP and a 1% contact rate. His contact rate is 58.6%. I don't think what he's doing is very repeatable. He looks a lot like...Patrick Wisdom, in fact. Someone who hits the ball super hard, but doesn't hit it very often. I think Velazquez belongs on an MLB roster and I think Wisdom has use on an MLB roster. Much like I think Canario can have use. But like Nelly, I think Canario's outlook mirrors the Wisdom route. And if the Cubs trade a Wisdom-type before finding that out...so be it.

To the last point, I like to be risk-aggressive myself. I was pro-Horton in the draft, I'm pro-Horton coming up as soon as possible as examples. But I think there's risk-aggressive and risk for risk's sake. And right now, Canario feels a bit more of risk for risks' sake. The upside on Canario is probably Wisdom. So playing the OG...well...I can't find much to quibble with. I also wouldn't mind if the Cubs played Canario. 

And I don't mean to pick you out; I promise you I'm not. You're just making coherent, cogent arguments and it's an easy place to put my thoughts. 

[PackLandVA]

So the Marlins have the second highest swing rate in baseball. Maybe that’ll help the Cubs pitchers reduce the number of BBs they give up.

[JHBulls]

Hopefully they can hit Hockey around quickly here. 

[Jason Ross]

Good job taking an early lead. Alright.

[Crusader]

Good first inning from our boys coming back from the IL. Wisdom with a walk, and Taillon with a clean first and a low pitch count.

its so weird seeing Wisdom hit second and play RF 😂. It worked though in the first.

Edited April 19, 2024 by Crusader

[UMFan83]

1 hour ago, mul21 said:

He has?  I missed that bit of news if it's been declared specifically by the Cubs.

Unless they are going with a 6 man rotation for the time being, the reported probables for this weekend are Taillon, Assad, Imanaga, Hendricks and I'm assuming Wicks is the 5th starter.  With the off day Monday, the Cubs don't have to use a 6th starter because of the DH tomorrow so no I don't think anyone has explicitly said Brown is out of the rotation but the writing seems on the wall for now.

Edited April 19, 2024 by UMFan83

[chibears55]

Could potentially be a rough weekend for an already tired bullpen...

Taillon not expected to give them more then 4-5 ip in his first start, unless of course he pitches like he did the first inning. 

Doubleheader tomorrow 

Then Hendricks on Sunday which could be a disaster if they need to go through a few relievers to get through both games Saturday..

 

[UMFan83]

Solid start for the offense.  Morel though is still in quite the funk, now 1 for his last 27 with 10 K (and 2 BB) over that span.

[Jason Ross]

Back to back great plays!

[JHBulls]

Taillon through 2 innings on only 18 pitchers. 

[chibears55]

Just now, UMFan83 said:

Unless they are going with a 6 man rotation for the time being, the reported probables for this weekend are Taillon, Assad, Imanaga, Hendricks and I'm assuming Wicks is the 5th starter.  With the off day Monday, the Cubs don't have to use a 6th starter due to the DH tomorrow so no I don't think anyone has explicitly said Brown is out of the rotation, the writing seems on the wall.

Brown will likely be Hendricks relief on Sunday if Hendricks can't get through 5.

He is also a good guy to have in the pen as long relief, especially with having a couple guys on the rotation that hasn't been able to give them innings.

[UMFan83]

2 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Could potentially be a rough weekend for an already tired bullpen...

Taillon not expected to give them more then 4-5 ip in his first start, unless of course he pitches like he did the first inning. 

Doubleheader tomorrow 

Then Hendricks on Sunday which could be a disaster if they need to go through a few relievers to get through both games Saturday..

 

Back to the aforementioned Brown, he should be available as soon as tomorrow to give the Cubs multiple innings of relief if necessary.  I would assume they'll want to hold him until Sunday though as protection for a potential Hendricks short outing after a DH

[chibears55]

1 minute ago, JHBulls said:

Taillon through 2 innings on only 18 pitchers. 

Just what CC needs for this weekend 

[PackLandVA]

[chibears55]

1 minute ago, UMFan83 said:

Back to the aforementioned Brown, he should be available as soon as tomorrow to give the Cubs multiple innings of relief if necessary.  I would assume they'll want to hold him until Sunday though as protection for a potential Hendricks short outing after a DH

That what I'm thinking to for Brown,  being held for Sunday. 

[Crusader]

It might not be a bad idea to go with a 6th man rotation, Shota still isn’t use to going every 5th day, and Hendericks has been broken.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think the Cubs might be a better team than the Marlins. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Nico finally starting to rack up some doubles 

[UMFan83]

Nico is on an absolute tear right now.

[squally1313]

42 minutes ago, KCCub said:

It's more so how we've configured our bench from a macro strategy the past couple years and selecting to use vets with low ceilings (Mancini, Hosmer, Tauchman, Cooper, Barnhart, etc) vs our own young guys who might be riskier, but also provide more upside.

Taking a slightly different angle on this than 1908....what do we think the relative value of a MLB PA is vs a AAA one? Like, if we agree that present day Canario is behind Happ, Belli, Seiya, and Tauchman on the MLB OF depth chart, and we want to maximize the possibility that he improves and jumps one of those guys, is it better to have him as a 5th outfielder getting 4-5 PAs a week with the Cubs vs getting daily starts in AAA? Mastro had gotten 13 PAs this year. Does someone like Luis Vazquez get more out of that role or the 66 PAs he's gotten so far this year in Iowa? I really don't know, but I think ideally when you have upper tier prospects that project to be MLB starters, you bring them up as starters, not back of the bench guys.  

[chibears55]

Think Nico is out of his slump 😆

[UMFan83]

2 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think the Cubs might be a better team than the Marlins. 

I dont understand why they are all the sudden terrible.  I know they got super lucky last year with the 1 run record but thought they were still a fairly decent team.

[squally1313]

115 wRC from Nico currently, and his wOBA still has about 20 points to go to catch up to his expected wOBA. In terms of overall value add v salary, he might be the most valuable player on the team

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

I dont understand why they are all the sudden terrible.  I know they got super lucky last year with the 1 run record but thought they were still a fairly decent team.

Their only strength was pitching and their staff is devastated. And on top of that I think they’re also unlucky. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

115 wRC from Nico currently, and his wOBA still has about 20 points to go to catch up to his expected wOBA. In terms of overall value add v salary, he might be the most valuable player on the team

123. Think you need to refresh. The 397 OBP is simply remarkable. If he can get into that 375+ range that would be incredible.