Cubs (Hendricks) vs Diamondbacks (Henry): 4/16/24, 8:40pm, Marquee

[Wilson A2000]

No pen is good when they are forced to pitch this many innings

[Brock Beauchamp]

I went to bed in the... fifth? sixth? and missed the shenanigans. I see the Cubs' bullpen took hold of this game in the worst way.

[JD94]

I wish we could make a move for somebody like Jason Foley at Detroit or Hunter Harvey at Washington. Those are a couple good relievers on teams going nowhere. 
 

If we aren’t going to give Mervis a real opportunity, then we should move him for bullpen help. 

[CubinNY]

woooo!

[BigbadB]

Fell asleep early again. Much happier about that today. 

[Derwood]

[Ding Dong Johnson]

There are no metrics, simple or advanced, that will convince me Adbert Alzolay is a good choice for the role he's in.

[Rex Buckingham]

Glad I didn't stay up for that... I don't get the people crapping on Adbert. He's a good closer. Yes, he's given up a couple dongs this year, but that's just going to happen over the course of a season. I wouldn't be shocked if he doesn't give one up the rest of the month.

[Derwood]

8 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

Glad I didn't stay up for that... I don't get the people crapping on Adbert. He's a good closer. Yes, he's given up a couple dongs this year, but that's just going to happen over the course of a season. I wouldn't be shocked if he doesn't give one up the rest of the month.

He has three blown saves already, tied for the league lead. His save % is 50%

Edited April 17, 2024 by Derwood

[sneakypower]

12 minutes ago, Ding Dong Johnson said:

There are no metrics, simple or advanced, that will convince me Adbert Alzolay is a good choice for the role he's in.

eh, i would half-heartedly argue he's currently one of the best closers in baseball simply because every other closer is more or less injured at the moment

the best ability is availability!

Edited April 17, 2024 by sneakypower

[mul21]

5 hours ago, Wilson A2000 said:

No pen is good when they are forced to pitch this many innings

This is what needs to be the focus.  This pen has pitched waaaaaaay too many innings this early in the season.  Avg. innings per start from the 5 guys who are currently starting: 4.25, 5.56, 5.03 (Shota obviously got hosed in the rain delay game), 4.07, 5.33.  That's not going to work long term regardless of the quality of pen arms.

[squally1313]

7 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

Yes Hader sucks so far this year. No we didn’t need to spend a ton of money on bullpen arms, yes we have promising arms in Iowa that can give us a boost, yes we historically improve on the pen as the season goes along. But we needed to do more in the offseason than Neris and Almonte after a historic September playoff collapse due largely to the pen.  
 

 these games will happen in a season, no pen is going to hold every lead, but there’s already 4 games this year I can think of that the pen had a major negative impact on. That rate can’t continue

A couple things here, now that I'm tired and somewhat regretting the tact I took last night.

1. The reason I get frustrated with complaining about bullpen construction is that I've yet to see an actual alternate plan that would have solved anything. I look through the list of relievers who signed sorted by AAV, and yes, with the benefit of 3 weeks worth of 2024 data, you can piece together an alternate reality offseason where things look better. But I mean....$19m/year for Hader until he's 35? The Kimbrel experience again? Robert Stephenson hasn't pitched yet this year and basically has 40 innings of Tampa magic to point to as any recent success, and he got 3 years. Chapman? Reynaldo Lopez got a 3 year deal after being equally as effective as Neris last year. Which is a long way to say that I don't see this as some fatal shortcoming/deficiency in the front office as much as it's crapping out on a dice roll two years in a row (maybe! it's only the middle of april). I also don't think we're alone in having this problem (16th in overall bullpen value since the beginning of last year), and trading for these guys is really hard. To use Jason Foley, the trade value site has him as more valuable than a Triantos, Rojas, or Assad (you'd need roughly 4 Matt Murtons). Do we want to trade those guys for 70 innings a year?

2. When I think about sustainable ways to build a bullpen, I basically see two paths. One is to either have an endless amount of money or a sufficient amount of cheap/controllable offensive and starting pitching talent that you can just throw 8 figure contracts at multiple dudes with track records and tilt the odds of success in our favor. We're not in that situation, which is a Ricketts problem and/or a Jed problem, but not necessarily a Jed/bullpen construction problem (at least to me). The other is to just have, to use an old term from around here, 'waves' of arms that throw upper 90s that moonlight in the pen until they find a third pitch or (to be blunt) break.  I've been told it's coming, and maybe it is. But also, maybe it's guys like Assad and Brown and Horton in the near future who would be filling those roles if not for the injury struggles in the rotation. Those guys not being full starters just adds to the weight that needs to be carried by the pen that just lost a couple key options.

3. To use the 45 game sample you cited (basically September 2023 + this year)...the overall numbers are bad, yes, but 23rd in total value in no way lends itself to 'historic horsefeathers' right? Like, there's being a bad hitter and then there's being a bad hitter and having a .100 BABIP. This is really bad sequencing luck, playing an unsustainable amount of close games, etc....it's fine to say we have a bad bullpen based on the larger data set available. To take 'we are blowing leads at a historic frequency in this selective sample' and conclude 'our bullpen is a historic disaster' is probably skipping a few steps. Not saying this is you, specifically, but seem to be getting a lot of that around here.

This is already far too long, but will just add that this was somehow all David Ross' fault last year, but definitely not Counsell's fault this year. And that after all this we're 4-4 on what is tied for the longest road trip of the year against three teams with playoff aspirations. If you want to see real problems, wait until this home stretch coming up, where we have two teams that also in theory were going for the playoffs this year and are a combined 10-23 to start the year. 

[s2obed]

Damn, wtf happened? I saw Happ’s GS and went to bed. 

Pen mostly sucks and they’re putting more strain on the pen guys when Hendricks/Wicks are only pitching 4-5 innings. I’m guessing they bring another arm today.

Edited April 17, 2024 by s2obed

[sneakypower]

among active closers only these names have higher ra9-WAR for the last full calendar year than Adbert

1. Tanner Scott
2. Jason Foley
3. Evan Phillips
4. Craig Kimbrel
5. Josh Hader
6. Clay Holmes

and nos. 1 & 5 are in danger of being moved off the role for a bit after some high-profile blowups

he's still good in my book, that HR was kinda fluky altitude nonsense

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, sneakypower said:

he's still good in my book, that HR was kinda fluky altitude nonsense

I think I said it elsewhere, but to the degree that Adbert has a problem it's one in his control, and that's throwing *too many* strikes, so it's less concerning than someone being unable to find the plate or having every pitch get torched.

As an aside on the HR itself, that's the sorta thing that makes me side-eye some of the exit velo data.  I know it was a quick stroke and clearly it was hit hard enough to have the distance, but it was on a slider and frankly off the bat it did not look like 110 mph(2nd highest in a game with tons of rocket shots).

[squally1313]

16 minutes ago, Derwood said:

He has three blown saves already, tied for the league lead. His save % is 50%

Big picture, Adbert is a weird case because he's so unique from the rest of the bullpen and their problems because he just flat out doesn't walk anybody. His stuff isn't overly filthy, he doesn't have the double digit strikeout rate, but he doesn't give free passes and (until this year) keeps the ball in the ballpark. 

Which is the small picture point of his struggles this year. One, he gave up 6 home runs over 77 innings in 2022 and 2023, and has given up 3 in less than 9 innings this year. A 3.12 HR/9 rate won't continue for any pitcher, but especially not for someone with his larger data set. And then, yes, blown saves are the ultimate metric, but those being tied to 3 outings with a one run lead and giving up a solo home run (and nothing else) is about the most 'unfair' way to rack up three blown saves. 

[WhyCantWeWin]

Who is left for them to call up to help the tired bullpen? Wesneski? That’s it unless you cut someone. 

[sneakypower]

2 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I think I said it elsewhere, but to the degree that Adbert has a problem it's one in his control, and that's throwing *too many* strikes, so it's less concerning than someone being unable to find the plate or having every pitch get torched.

i got a little annoyed when Boog started saying that, i guess you're just not going to hear me complain about any reliever on this team "throwing too many strikes", we should be so lucky

[CubinNY]

11 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

A couple things here, now that I'm tired and somewhat regretting the tact I took last night.

1. The reason I get frustrated with complaining about bullpen construction is that I've yet to see an actual alternate plan that would have solved anything. I look through the list of relievers who signed sorted by AAV, and yes, with the benefit of 3 weeks worth of 2024 data, you can piece together an alternate reality offseason where things look better. But I mean....$19m/year for Hader until he's 35? The Kimbrel experience again? Robert Stephenson hasn't pitched yet this year and basically has 40 innings of Tampa magic to point to as any recent success, and he got 3 years. Chapman? Reynaldo Lopez got a 3 year deal after being equally as effective as Neris last year. Which is a long way to say that I don't see this as some fatal shortcoming/deficiency in the front office as much as it's crapping out on a dice roll two years in a row (maybe! it's only the middle of april). I also don't think we're alone in having this problem (16th in overall bullpen value since the beginning of last year), and trading for these guys is really hard. To use Jason Foley, the trade value site has him as more valuable than a Triantos, Rojas, or Assad (you'd need roughly 4 Matt Murtons). Do we want to trade those guys for 70 innings a year?

2. When I think about sustainable ways to build a bullpen, I basically see two paths. One is to either have an endless amount of money or a sufficient amount of cheap/controllable offensive and starting pitching talent that you can just throw 8 figure contracts at multiple dudes with track records and tilt the odds of success in our favor. We're not in that situation, which is a Ricketts problem and/or a Jed problem, but not necessarily a Jed/bullpen construction problem (at least to me). The other is to just have, to use an old term from around here, 'waves' of arms that throw upper 90s that moonlight in the pen until they find a third pitch or (to be blunt) break.  I've been told it's coming, and maybe it is. But also, maybe it's guys like Assad and Brown and Horton in the near future who would be filling those roles if not for the injury struggles in the rotation. Those guys not being full starters just adds to the weight that needs to be carried by the pen that just lost a couple key options.

3. To use the 45 game sample you cited (basically September 2023 + this year)...the overall numbers are bad, yes, but 23rd in total value in no way lends itself to 'historic horsefeathers' right? Like, there's being a bad hitter and then there's being a bad hitter and having a .100 BABIP. This is really bad sequencing luck, playing an unsustainable amount of close games, etc....it's fine to say we have a bad bullpen based on the larger data set available. To take 'we are blowing leads at a historic frequency in this selective sample' and conclude 'our bullpen is a historic disaster' is probably skipping a few steps. Not saying this is you, specifically, but seem to be getting a lot of that around here.

This is already far too long, but will just add that this was somehow all David Ross' fault last year, but definitely not Counsell's fault this year. And that after all this we're 4-4 on what is tied for the longest road trip of the year against three teams with playoff aspirations. If you want to see real problems, wait until this home stretch coming up, where we have two teams that also in theory were going for the playoffs this year and are a combined 10-23 to start the year. 

Not going to comment on all of it, except for #1 - It's not our responsibility to build a pen for the Cubs. Our (collective) bitching about the pen in no way obligates anyone to "have a better idea". Jed's MO is to throw bodies at it and figure it out during the season through attrition. It's not a strategic decision, as much as it is a tactical one. Tactics without strategy are never a good thing. However, the volatile nature of bullpen pitchers is a tough problem to solve. The Brewers seem to have figured that out, but it may be only tangentially related to the manger the Cubs hired. 

[UMFan83]

3 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Who is left for them to call up to help the tired bullpen? Wesneski? That’s it unless you cut someone. 

On the 40 man you have Michael Arias, Jose Cuas (*shudder*) and Wesneski

Almost certainly would be Wesneski since he's stretched out as a starter, has MLB experience and today is his normal turn in the rotation.  Given that Wicks has had trouble going more than 4-5 innings, we need someone who can come up and give multiple innings.  DBacks have some dangerous lefties though which was his major struggle last year.

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Not going to comment on all of it, except for #1 - It's not our responsibility to build a pen for the Cubs. Our (collective) bitching about the pen in no way obligates anyone to "have a better idea". Jed's MO is to throw bodies at it and figure it out during the season through attrition. It's not a strategic decision, as much as it is a tactical one. Tactics without strategy are never a good thing. However, the volatile nature of bullpen pitchers is a tough problem to solve. The Brewers seem to have figured that out, but it may be only tangentially related to the manger the Cubs hired. 

This is fair, and maybe my point is better said as 'in terms of the larger data set, this is not a unique to the Cubs situation'. People here live and die with this team and hone in on games like last night or the Padres game while games like Monday (5 innings, 1 ER), Sunday (3.1 scoreless), or Saturday (3.2 scoreless) just get swept under the rug. It's human nature, but I mean....we were 21st in blown saves last year. First place? The WS Champion Rangers. The Orioles, 2nd in overall bullpen value last year, we're 4th. I still truly believe this is an average bullpen that has hit a really rough stretch of luck over the last 50 or so games, and I think the way to make that elite is building through the farm (and needing your starters to pitch better/longer), not throwing money at guys in their 30s. 

[UMFan83]

19 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Not going to comment on all of it, except for #1 - It's not our responsibility to build a pen for the Cubs. Our (collective) bitching about the pen in no way obligates anyone to "have a better idea". Jed's MO is to throw bodies at it and figure it out during the season through attrition. It's not a strategic decision, as much as it is a tactical one. Tactics without strategy are never a good thing. However, the volatile nature of bullpen pitchers is a tough problem to solve. The Brewers seem to have figured that out, but it may be only tangentially related to the manger the Cubs hired. 

I don't even hate the strategy that Jed uses for the pen.  It's worked for us more years than not.  I just think he didn't add enough options in the offseason.  Almonte is fine, they like his stuff and think they can get him going.  And having seen him for a few weeks I can see what they love about him, he just needs to throw strikes.  Neris never made sense to me as the one pricey addition given his peripherals.  Outside of that we're pretty much left with the same options as last year.

But maybe the biggest issue with regards to the pen is the amount they are being overburdened by the starters' inability to go deep into games.  The pen shouldn't be this gassed so early in the season.  Cubs starters have failed to go 5 innings in 9 of the 17 games, only 3 starts have lasted 6 innings, none of them more than 6 innings.  That type of burden is going to cause even the best pens to struggle.

Edited April 17, 2024 by UMFan83

[CubinNY]

As someone else said, the biggest problem with the bullpen is overuse. A lot gets solved when SP can go 6 or 7 innings. 

[muntjack]

Injuries to the rotation and to Merryweather have resulted in the suboptimal configuration of the pen.  It's especially unfortunate that the injuries occurred this early,  because the call-up replacements would look a lot different (better) in, say, July.  

[chibears55]

9 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

What arms are fresh in Iowa? Have a feeling Palencia is going down tomorrow and someone is on their way to Arizona. 

Have to do something, otherwise someone might endure taking a beating just to eat up innings