Laissez les Bears temps rouler (saints game)

[Hairyducked Idiot]

1 hour ago, Bearded_Beef said:

Right and thats somehow all Poles, and not the guy that we all knew was trading away the future for a chance to win now and restructuring contracts to sign mediocre talent that would saddle us further into the future.  It's kind of bonkers how one note everyone is on their record when we all lived through the Pace era and knew what was happening at the time.

I had a *hell* of a time convincing bears fans that what pace was doing was going to lead us to a blowup around 2020.  Not so much here, but in more populated bears places on the internet, "shut up we just won the division and he got us Khalil Mack.". 

I don't blame everything on poles, but there are some very concerning patterns emerging that could easily doom the team just as surely as pace's anti-value approach did.

Poles has shown absolutely batpoop crazy positional priorities.  We are "building through the draft" but we consistently undervalue the most important positions in the game.  QB, LT and DE are the three most important positions in the game and through two drafts we've a pair of fifth round picks on them.  But we've got endless picks for mediocre DBs.

The way he's poured resources into the WR position and it still isn't that good long-term is definitely Pace-ian, as was paying a second-round pick for the privilege of overpaying a good but not great de in his decline contract.

And we are *still* in QB hell.  We don't have one, and until you have one, you won't have long-term sustained success. I guess we are hoping either our pick or Carolina's nets us Williams or maye, because it not we will be counting on a tier of prospect with a pretty low hit rate.

[minnesotacubsfan]

1 hour ago, Bearded_Beef said:

Poles hasn't been here for 5 years.  Poles was hired last year, and it does take multiple years when you start with basically less-than nothing.  You don't build through FA and the dude has basically had one full strength draft.  "This is the NFL" is a cop out to good discussion.  Yes, teams can get better quickly, but those teams usually have something to build off of.  When he took over he had an aging, expensive D-Line and Justin Fields.  Literally the rest of the team sucked, other than Montgomery and Roquan, and neither of them play a premium position.  You all like to crap on Fields too, so maybe you're right and he didn't even have anything there.

Please, put together a mock draft from last year, and a FA class that would've made this team likely to win the Superbowl.  I bet you struggle to do it even with the benefit of hindsight.  I am glad that Poles didn't try to do anything that stupid.

i dont think anyone thinks they could have cobbled a team last offseason to get to the SB, but a winning record would be nice. Also, Poles wasnt hired last year, hes had 2 offseason to improve the team and has done the opposite

 

 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Poles took the approach going into building through the draft that i wanted and it could be Eberflus who has influenced some of the picks but his execution has been terrible. I still think he should have traded one of the Gordon or Brisker picks, if not both. He obviously really likes Stevenson and I think he has potential to be an impact player once he cleans up the penalties. But overall his draft picks have been a C-/D+ or so. Wright looks like a stud. 

 

Straight up unmitigated disaster in Free Agency. That failed DT signing and STILL horsefeathers up the comp picks. Letting Daniels walk was dumb as horsefeathers. Ignoring Harvraves and Campbell. I mean I literally give him a 0/100 in FA. You have to add impact talent when and where you can and he's just put himself behind the 8 ball up against a rail in the middle of the table. horsefeathers atrocious FA plan.

 

It's true that most teams who turn it around quick and sustain success either come with a franchise QB or an elite defense to build around. He didn't have either. But you don't just flat out ignore FA when you have 100m in cap space and 2 long term contracts on the books. He's a bonehead.

Edited November 3, 2023 by We Got The Whole 9

[Bearded_Beef]

2 hours ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

I had a *hell* of a time convincing bears fans that what pace was doing was going to lead us to a blowup around 2020.  Not so much here, but in more populated bears places on the internet, "shut up we just won the division and he got us Khalil Mack.". 

I don't blame everything on poles, but there are some very concerning patterns emerging that could easily doom the team just as surely as pace's anti-value approach did.

Poles has shown absolutely batpoop crazy positional priorities.  We are "building through the draft" but we consistently undervalue the most important positions in the game.  QB, LT and DE are the three most important positions in the game and through two drafts we've a pair of fifth round picks on them.  But we've got endless picks for mediocre DBs.

The way he's poured resources into the WR position and it still isn't that good long-term is definitely Pace-ian, as was paying a second-round pick for the privilege of overpaying a good but not great de in his decline contract.

And we are *still* in QB hell.  We don't have one, and until you have one, you won't have long-term sustained success. I guess we are hoping either our pick or Carolina's nets us Williams or maye, because it not we will be counting on a tier of prospect with a pretty low hit rate.

Honestly man, these are pretty level headed takes that I can either agree with or understand.  I am not 100% convinced that Fields cant be a stud though.  Don't get me wrong I see his warts, but I think if you had the right personnel and coaching to go with the cannon arm, monster size and speed, that maybe he could be something.  I certainly wouldn't be upset if we moved on from him, but I could see it being a mistake.  I think he passes the "eye test" a lot more than Trubisky did, as low as that bar is. 

I view Poles not drafting LT as his faith/falling in love with his pick in Jones and this Sweat trade has me convinced he didn't love any of the available DEs.

[WrigleyField 22]

Holy strawman.. Building a super bowl team? How about competent team and coaching staff?

 

Poles was left with more than it feels like you're giving credit for.  

 

The only possibly justification for the Bears right now is that Poles hasn't really tried yet which is pretty damming.  And if the Jaylon negotiations are any indication it's that tanking away a season has bigger consequences than the mere 14 losses.  Bears look like a mess right now and honestly most of that is what Poles has built (and not built)

[WrigleyField 22]

Assets left behind for Poles

 

Mack - traded for a 2nd and 6th

Quinn - traded for a day 3 pick

Smith - traded away for a 2nd and 5th

None of those bad individually, and Quinn was obviously spent, but not Mack and Smith, so you have to have plan to replace talent.

Daniels - didn't even try to sign 

Jenkins - obviously has had injury issues, but even when healthy this regime seems intent to treat him as afterthought even though he is their best lineman until Wright maybe takes that claim

Johnson - looks dangerously close to losing next offseason

Collectively can call Nichols, Dalton, and Allen Robinson an asset in the form of a possible comp pick, which I'm usually not in favor of pining over, but nonetheless gave up so they could sign a horrid FA class in their place.

Turned around and has traded a high second and likely another high second for Claypool and Sweat.  When you do the pick arbitrage, all of those collective moves are basically Mack, Quinn, Smith, Daniels, et al for Sweat, and a handful of late picks.  Then you have the pick 1 haul obviously.  Which Moore is still the main asset to hang hat on.  And yea, the two additional picks havent had opportunity to hit, but at this point, that trade and related Wright pick are the only truely good thing he's done.  A tank haul isn't enough for a GM to hang hat on nearly 2 years in.  Nearly everything else has been a combination of inaction and bad/meh when he has acted.

 

Edited November 4, 2023 by WrigleyField 22

[WrigleyField 22]

At this point, the only real standard of Poles is "isn't Pace"

Yeesh

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Sweat gets a 4-year extension worth $98m, $73m gtd.

Massive overpay IMO

Edited November 4, 2023 by Hairyducked Idiot

[raw]

6 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Sweat gets a 4-year extension worth $98m, $73m gtd.

Massive overpay IMO

That's the cost. Rashan Gary just got 4/96 the other day. Sweat probably not as good of a pass rusher, but that doesn't matter in salary negotiations. Next guy up

[UMFan83]

More than I was expecting but whatever, we have the money especially if we’re gonna reset at QB

[We Got The Whole 9]

On pace for 15 sacks and the best run defending Edge in the league. Seems like a good contract and [I]massive[/I] feels like a major exaggeration.

[We Got The Whole 9]

It does suck that Jaylon is gonna be so bitter over this 

[UMFan83]

8 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

It does suck that Jaylon is gonna be so bitter over this 

He can have fun making franchise tag money for a year

[Hairyducked Idiot]

20 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

On pace for 15 sacks and the best run defending Edge in the league. Seems like a good contract and [I]massive[/I] feels like a major exaggeration.

I'll take the under. He's never finished a season top 10 in sacks.

[raw]

54 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

More than I was expecting but whatever, we have the money especially if we’re gonna reset at QB

Projections had him anywhere from 4/100-102. 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

What's weird is how much of it is guaranteed.  That's a *ton* of guaranteed money.

Gary may have gotten more overall, but only $35m was guaranteed.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

39 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

He can have fun making franchise tag money for a year

I would be thoroughly unsurprised if we let him walk.  We've invested two 2nd-round picks in CB

[UMFan83]

 

[jersey cubs fan]

That’s one way to get up to the minimum.

 

if you’re willing to throw around those kinds of guarantees, why are you trading draft picks in a losing season and why weren’t you signing impact free agents the past two years?

[WrigleyField 22]

Yea, that AAV is fine, but those are big guarantees.  I'll have to compare to other contracts, but that might be near tops of guarantee % for Edges.

I'm not gonna dog him too much on the deal though.  With the pick it's all together agressive, but on the contract front the Bears likely have a bad team premium they will pay until they are a good team

[PosterToBeNamedLater]

1 hour ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

Yea, that AAV is fine, but those are big guarantees.  I'll have to compare to other contracts, but that might be near tops of guarantee % for Edges.

I'm not gonna dog him too much on the deal though.  With the pick it's all together agressive, but on the contract front the Bears likely have a bad team premium they will pay until they are a good team

I'm pretty sure I heard a podcast say that this was the highest percentage of guaranteed money for an edge (74%) and that the previous record was 71% for TJ Watt.  

[jumbo]

1 hour ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

Yea, that AAV is fine, but those are big guarantees.  I'll have to compare to other contracts, but that might be near tops of guarantee % for Edges.

I'm not gonna dog him too much on the deal though.  With the pick it's all together agressive, but on the contract front the Bears likely have a bad team premium they will pay until they are a good team

I read that it is now top % guaranteed, exceeeding TJ Watt

The guarantee % seems crazy to me, the AAV doesn't, but the odds that they don't want this guy for the next three years seem pretty low. 

[WrigleyField 22]

So the guarantees are a lot  but upon closer inspection, I don't hate the structure against Gary's.  It should be noted Packers tend to operate as a "signing bonus are the only guarantees " standpoint, with really only Bengals as the other team in that camp.  His contract reflects thst, but that can be good or bad. I tend to think it's limiting over time.

 

The cashflows are very similar from years 2-4. Really the biggest difference is Sweat's 2025 salary vests in 2024 whereas Gary's doesnt until 2025.

[WrigleyField 22]

42 minutes ago, jumbo said:

I read that it is now top % guaranteed, exceeeding TJ Watt

The guarantee % seems crazy to me, the AAV doesn't, but the odds that they don't want this guy for the next three years seem pretty low. 

That doesnt look right.  Also Watt's  are all fully guarantees, whereas looks like Sweat's aren't.  If I have my math's right he has 4th highest % of full guarantee and 3rd highest % total guarantees.

 

Effective value wise should slot in 5th richest amongst current top 10.

[Tryptamine]

MHJ with an oddly quiet game,  4 receptions 25 yards 2 TD

Maye was solid in a completely non competitive game 16/23 244 yards 4TD 0 INT

 

Williams is going to get a chance to show out in prime time against an elite team. We'll also get to check out Penix.

Edited November 4, 2023 by Tryptamine