Cubs offseason chit chat...

[CubinNY]

Just now, Derwood said:

Clearly no one writers know about this team or division. I have read back-to-back articles, the first of which says "Cubs lucky to break .500 in 2024" and the next saying "Cubs favorites to win NL Central".

It's "everyone be guessin'" season on Twitter

Each team in the division is mediocre. 

[Derwood]

Just now, CubinNY said:

Each team in the division is mediocre. 

Of course, so someone has to win. It's funny when the predictions come in and everyone is predicted to come in 3rd

[Rob]

5 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Each team in the division is mediocre. 

Yup.

Cubs or Reds are most likely to win if you're the type of person to believe in prospects taking a step forward and contributing.

Cardinals are the team to beat if you only believe established 30 year olds are capable of winning.

Brewers walk a weird line between the two after the Burnes trade, so everybody expects them to be in 2nd or 3rd.

And the Pirates exist, I guess.

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, Backtobanks said:

No it's not.  There are many examples of players who did great in the minors and never made it to the ML.  I don't think you should discard minor league numbers, but they should be used to give the player a chance to prove himself at the ML level and not some prediction as to what they will do in the ML.

There are many examples of highly productive players who suddenly and permanently stop producing.

The error bars around minor leaguers and foreign players are of course wider, but the degree to which that's the case is much smaller than conventional wisdom would say.

[Bertz]

Quote

 

Still, the Cubs aren’t necessarily done supplementing their pitching staff. Even Hoyer, while praising the team’s pitching depth at last month’s Cubs Convention, acknowledged some uncertainty around the starters: “I don’t want to say there’s questions, but certainly there is some variability in how that rotation produces.”

Hoyer’s track record shows that the Cubs usually close a few deals for additional pitchers in February. The Cubs recently showed interest in Jakob Junis, though they did not make a formal offer before the swingman signed a one-year, $7 million contract with the Milwaukee Brewers. Ryne Stanek, a key member of the bullpen that helped the Houston Astros win the 2022 World Series, would make sense as a complementary piece.

 

Mooney this AM.  I was lukewarm on Stanek as the primary late inning add.  As a second addition I'd be much more on board.

I'm surprised about Junis.  I figured with Smyly and the crop of optionable SPs another long man wasn't really in the cards.  Curious if that's viewed as a need or if they just liked him in particular.

[javy knows my name]

Stop trying to teach B2B, he doesn't actually want to learn things

[Tryptamine]

2 hours ago, Tim said:

I don't get this. This team has:

• A legit Cy Young contender from last season looking to build on that performance
• An absolutely joyful dude to loves to play and hit dongs
• Three huge ROY candidates at SP, 1B and CF
• Zero legit bad positions on the entire field or on the mound

There is plenty to watch and be excited about out there.

The same reason I don't watch the Bulls, I'm not interested in a team that's trying to do the least possible things to just possibly barely sneak into the playoffs. Jed had every opportunity to grasp the division and instead choose this. Why should I be excited, by what so far, has been a failure of an offseason? This isn't like watching the 2015 Cubs where there were minimal expectations and watching the rookies was the only thing you had. This is a team that barely missed the playoffs last year and yet they choose to do almost nothing to the point it's arguable that the team is even as good as it was last year. They had prospect capital and they had money, they choose to not fully utilize either to upgrade last year's squad.

Edited February 11, 2024 by Tryptamine

[17 Seconds]

i get that this offseason sucks ass, but it's not over yet either

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, thawv said:

Looking back, I think that you're right.  They would just lose them after 4 years instead of 6 years. 

I failed to mention the other part of my thought.  The league should require the teams that profit from revenue sharing to spend those profits, or it goes back in to the profit sharing pool.  They should not be able to profit 150 million of revenue sharing, and have a 90 million dollar.  If they do, they don't get to keep the extra 60 million.  I think that this would force more competitiveness, and it would also be more likely that teams would extend their younger players.  Now with younger players are getting paid much more money during their prime years, and the small market team are forced to field a better team.  Which is supposedly the whole reason to give them money. 

I’m not saying you are wrong in what you feel needs to happen. I am saying it never will. Why would the low revenue teams sign into having to spend more of their profits. It is not happening. 

[Rcal10]

10 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

If the season started today, I'd watch about 5 games this season.

What do you need for them to do in order for you to be interested? Even signing Bellinger and Chapman moves the needle enough for them to be favorites in the central but it also limits them in future years. Plus, I don’t think they can get both in and be under the $257M line. Short of a trade, which has been discussed at length and is very hard to do, I don’t see free agency making this team that much better. That said, I think they can still be a fun team to watch and one that will be in the race the entire season. With some young guys producing they can win the division. Yes, I would like to see more. But when you break it down and are honest, you have to know they didn’t have a chance with Ohtani, were never going to go 12 years on a pitcher(I don’t blame them), and never going to give that much up for 1 year of Soro(again, I don’t blame them). So that leaves the Boras 4 and/or a trade. I like that the added Busch. I like Imanaga and Neris as FA signings. I, too, would like to see more(a trade), but maybe the prices are just way too high. That could explain the little movement that has gone on. 

[Bertz]

I think the "the team's not any better than last year" argument has some merit, but it's mostly missing the forest for the trees.  Let's assume Jed adds Bellinger and another decent reliever, which looks like the modal outcome from here.

On the one hand yeah in terms of players in and players out you retained Bellinger, replaced Stroman with a probably comparable SP, shuffled the bullpen, and added Busch to replace Hosmer/Mancini/Candelario.  I'd call it improvement but it's nominal.  But we're taking the rest of the team and treating it as static, which isn't reliable or fair for several reasons:

- The team underperformed its peripherals by 8 (!!) games last year.  I am of the mind that this is mostly luck, but to whatever extent its not you'd likely hang it on the manager, and the Cubs brought in the best manager in the league this winter.  That 8 game gap should disappear.  If we're anchoring off of a number it should be closer to 91 than 83 (although best practice is to not anchor off of last year at all, anchor off of projections)

- Age on the roster is mostly a positive.  Very few of the team's major contributors are old.  Gomes, Hendricks, and Taillon are in their mid to late 30's, and everyone else of consequence was 29 or under last year.  

- The team improved over the course of the year last year.  Morel wasn't up early.  Neither was Amaya.  Smyly was starting.  Alzolay wasn't closing, etc.

- The big one is that the dam is about to break with the kids coming up.  PCA, Caissie, and Brown are potential impact guys who will open the year at Iowa.  Canario, Murray, and Vazquez are solid prospects who will be there too.  The meat of the farm is going to open at AA next year.  You would put their ETA as early '25, but once you're that close it's not crazy to be in MLB by July or August of '24.  So much in the same way the August '23 Cubs were much better than the April '23 Cubs, the same should be true in 2024

Like I'm not going pretend this offseason is awesome.  But now that we know Ohtani was dead set on LAD, the only real option for really moving the needle was to immolate most of our young MLB pitching for Juan Soto.  I would certainly have considered it, but at the same time if Jed ends up getting one of the Boras guys on a sweetheart deal, which looks increasingly likely, that's likely going to be a far better outcome.

[chibears55]

For some reason I just have this huge feeling that Hoyer has a trade he cooking up right before Pitchers and Catchers report that will add a bat(3B) and a pitcher.

Bellinger will be signed right before ST 

Monday or Tuesday should be pretty active for the cubs 🤞🤞🤞

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

For some reason I just have this huge feeling that Hoyer has a trade he cooking up right before Pitchers and Catchers report that will add a bat(3B) and a pitcher.

Bellinger will be signed right before ST 

Monday or Tuesday should be pretty active for the cubs 🤞🤞🤞

That would be awesome. But I certainly would mint hold my breath on that. I will be happy with  Bellinger signing. I kind of agree with Bertz on the teams outlook this year. 

[CubinNY]

51 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I think the "the team's not any better than last year" argument has some merit, but it's mostly missing the forest for the trees.  Let's assume Jed adds Bellinger and another decent reliever, which looks like the modal outcome from here.

On the one hand yeah in terms of players in and players out you retained Bellinger, replaced Stroman with a probably comparable SP, shuffled the bullpen, and added Busch to replace Hosmer/Mancini/Candelario.  I'd call it improvement but it's nominal.  But we're taking the rest of the team and treating it as static, which isn't reliable or fair for several reasons:

- The team underperformed its peripherals by 8 (!!) games last year.  I am of the mind that this is mostly luck, but to whatever extent its not you'd likely hang it on the manager, and the Cubs brought in the best manager in the league this winter.  That 8 game gap should disappear.  If we're anchoring off of a number it should be closer to 91 than 83 (although best practice is to not anchor off of last year at all, anchor off of projections)

- Age on the roster is mostly a positive.  Very few of the team's major contributors are old.  Gomes, Hendricks, and Taillon are in their mid to late 30's, and everyone else of consequence was 29 or under last year.  

- The team improved over the course of the year last year.  Morel wasn't up early.  Neither was Amaya.  Smyly was starting.  Alzolay wasn't closing, etc.

- The big one is that the dam is about to break with the kids coming up.  PCA, Caissie, and Brown are potential impact guys who will open the year at Iowa.  Canario, Murray, and Vazquez are solid prospects who will be there too.  The meat of the farm is going to open at AA next year.  You would put their ETA as early '25, but once you're that close it's not crazy to be in MLB by July or August of '24.  So much in the same way the August '23 Cubs were much better than the April '23 Cubs, the same should be true in 2024

Like I'm not going pretend this offseason is awesome.  But now that we know Ohtani was dead set on LAD, the only real option for really moving the needle was to immolate most of our young MLB pitching for Juan Soto.  I would certainly have considered it, but at the same time if Jed ends up getting one of the Boras guys on a sweetheart deal, which looks increasingly likely, that's likely going to be a far better outcome.

It’s not as if other teams in the division have done nothing. We should put last year in the books. It’s over. Their record was how good they were.

that said, other teams have not done much or are taking a step back. On the plus side, the kids are going to play. They have a manager who knows how to manage a bullpen. They have good youngish starting pitching, and if those guys take a step up, one of the better rotations top to bottom in the league.

the questions for me are, how are they going to score enough runs consistently to win. And if the pitching staff can limit the long ball. They have the potential to give up a lot of HRs. 
 

I don’t know what to make of them, high floor, low ceiling, maybe until the trade deadline and then let’s see. 

[Post Count Padder]

Twins traded Nick Gordon to the Marlins for Steven Okert. Buy-low former top prospect for decent lefty reliever. Probably something we could've matched up on. I expect (hope) that to be the first of several deals in the coming days before ST starts.

[LBiittner]

2 hours ago, chibears55 said:

For some reason I just have this huge feeling that Hoyer has a trade he cooking up right before Pitchers and Catchers report that will add a bat(3B) and a pitcher.

Bellinger will be signed right before ST 

Monday or Tuesday should be pretty active for the cubs 🤞🤞🤞

My fingers crossed too.

[Rob]

2 hours ago, chibears55 said:

For some reason I just have this huge feeling that Hoyer has a trade he cooking up right before Pitchers and Catchers report that will add a bat(3B) and a pitcher.

Bellinger will be signed right before ST 

Monday or Tuesday should be pretty active for the cubs 🤞🤞🤞

Don't count on the start of Spring Training doing much to create time pressure for either side.

[We Got The Whole 9]

The 2022 Orioles won 83 games, did absolutely nothing in Free Agency because they had a young crop of players they believed in and a miser of an owner, and went on to win 100 games in 2023 with better managing and big internal improvements. We probably don't have the impact-level of a Rutschman or Henderson but we have some good prospects of our own ready to contribute to a solid roster that's already in place.

 

You spent the first several weeks of Free Agency denouncing Jed if he signs Chapman but now if he does, it would make us the 'projected favorite' and you would have enough interest to watch more than 5 games in the season.

 

Btw 80% of the board here and at PSD didn't like the prior off-season and didn't believe they'd outperform projections. Why don't you just let the season play out, 

 

 

 

 

 

[We Got The Whole 9]

3 hours ago, chibears55 said:

For some reason I just have this huge feeling that Hoyer has a trade he cooking up right before Pitchers and Catchers report that will add a bat(3B) and a pitcher.

Bellinger will be signed right before ST 

Monday or Tuesday should be pretty active for the cubs 🤞🤞🤞

Why do you do this to yourself? Do us a favor, and when nothing happens, don't come back in here crying that Jed let another precious opportunity go by. 

[Bertz]

Going back to the Athletic article this AM, Junis might not have been a one-off.  Lorenzen would be very cool if he's willing to be a swingman.  I feel like most of the other options on the market I'd only want on a MiLB deal.  Someone like Eric Lauer?

 

[LBiittner]

5 hours ago, Bertz said:

Mooney this AM.  I was lukewarm on Stanek as the primary late inning add.  As a second addition I'd be much more on board.

I'm surprised about Junis.  I figured with Smyly and the crop of optionable SPs another long man wasn't really in the cards.  Curious if that's viewed as a need or if they just liked him in particular.

If Cubs are interested In signing stanek, something tells me they have the inside track. I think one of his parents might be a cubfan?

[chibears55]

4 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Why do you do this to yourself? Do us a favor, and when nothing happens, don't come back in here crying that Jed let another precious opportunity go by. 

Do what ? Have a feel that there's no way Hoyer is done trying to improve this roster and is just going to settle on a Pitcher from Japan and a top 50 rookie prospect to win ballgames this season. 

I dont cry, I'll just tell it like it is if that what he does and we're looking at possibly another wasted opportunity to win a division and go to the playoffs. 

[LBiittner]

One quick question, does cubs $ contribution to players retirement fund count against the lux tax?

I googled it and it said 2023 cubs payroll equaled 233m if you included their retirement fund contribution?

Edited February 11, 2024 by LBiittner

[Transmogrified Tiger]

29 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

One quick question, does cubs $ contribution to players retirement fund count against the lux tax?

I googled it and it said 2023 cubs payroll equaled 233m if you included their retirement fund contribution?

Most places that track LT well have a line item for things that count against the LT but are outside the variance of player salaries, Fangraphs has an 'estimated player benefits' row in their tracker for example: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/cubs

[LBiittner]

30 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Most places that track LT well have a line item for things that count against the LT but are outside the variance of player salaries, Fangraphs has an 'estimated player benefits' row in their tracker for example: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/cubs

Thank you for posting the link