Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Stratos]

13 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Jays sign Bellinger, Giants sign Chapman, Angels sign Snell and Rangers sign Montgomery. All not that crazy a scenario.

Red Sox are still bouncing around too.

[CubinNY]

32 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I think we are closing in a a point where Jed needs to turn the screws a bit. 

The question is who is being more unreasonable? One would think these guys would have signed somewhere if they thought they were getting a fair deal. But it's hard to know what Boras is up to and we may only find out until this is all over if ever. We don't know how much the recent media stuff is leaked by the teams or by Boars. I keep coming back to the idea that Jed is mostly happy with the direction of the team right now. In theory, he will have a lot of money available at the trade deadline and even more next year. 

[Bertz]

15 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Red Sox are still bouncing around too.

They have straight up said their payroll is going to be down from last year.  Unless they manage some salary dump trade of Jansen/Yoshida (seems incrediblt tough to do on the eve of ST) they're not signing one of the big dogs.  They probably can make a mid-sized signing like JDM though.

[Rob]

11 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Hoyer doesn't really seem to be the negotiating type,  he basically has his max years and amount set and waits until the player comes down from their asking price.

I don't think that's true at all.

Look at Imanaga's contract. There is just about zero chance that Hoyer came in with that monstrously weird contract right off the bat and sat there until Imanaga took it.

No, a contract like that is almost certainly heavily negotiated between both sides.

[thawv]

45 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

Are you kidding?   Jed would refuse to trade the prospects necessary to acquire someone like Bergman or Tucker or anyone else that would really have an impact on this team.

He's not suggesting those players literally.  He said that.  He's just throwing out a couple of names as an example.  

[Tryptamine]

FA isn't over and all the usual caveats, but I really do have severe doubts that Hoyer is ever going to be the guy to take this team from decent/pretty good to a team that is ever going to challenge for the best record in the NL, not unless he manages to put together a historically great farm. He just completely lacks any sense of urgency or aggressiveness. He's far too content with letting the chips fall as they may and picking up the value signings. 

[Bertz]

6 minutes ago, Rob said:

I don't think that's true at all.

Look at Imanaga's contract. There is just about zero chance that Hoyer came in with that monstrously weird contract right off the bat and sat there until Imanaga took it.

No, a contract like that is almost certainly heavily negotiated between both sides.

It's my favorite genre of Jed criticism.  It's just so patently silly on it's face.  Like do they think when Jed signed Dansby Swanson he initially offered $175M and Swanson immediately responded like this?

 

[Tryptamine]

20 minutes ago, Bertz said:

It's my favorite genre of Jed criticism.  It's just so patently silly on it's face.  Like do they think when Jed signed Dansby Swanson he initially offered $175M and Swanson immediately responded like this?

 

Of course not, and perhaps Dansby actually was the highest rated SS on the Cub's board(we'll never know) but Jed did wait until all the others had signed before he swooped in which is pretty much his MO at this point. Let everyone else get the first bite and then grab what's left. In this case, it definitely worked out in  Chicago's favor. 

[squally1313]

16 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

FA isn't over and all the usual caveats, but I really do have severe doubts that Hoyer is ever going to be the guy to take this team from decent/pretty good to a team that is ever going to challenge for the best record in the NL, not unless he manages to put together a historically great farm. He just completely lacks any sense of urgency or aggressiveness. He's far too content with letting the chips fall as they may and picking up the value signings. 

We've been in win now/contending mode for like 7 months since Hoyer took over. Did you want him to go balls out after the 2021 year where we went 27-45 in the second half? We won 74 games in 2022 and then he turned that into an 83 win team in 2023 after picking up what looks to be the best shortstop of the options that were available when you consider both production and contract. Yeah he should have picked up more relievers, but that's obviously not going to turn any team into 'the best team in the NL'. There wasn't a better offensive player traded at the deadline than Candelario, he just sucked for the Cubs. His 2021 first rounder is already in the major league rotation, his 2022 first rounder is a top 3 pitching prospect in baseball, and his 2023 pick destroyed the lower minors and is a top 50 prospect going into this year. Both those latter two guys could legitimately be at Wrigley by the all star break. 

We were never getting Ohtani. Morel for Soto straight up was like, a debate around here, and then the Yankees put together a package that, per Baseball Trade Values, almost tripled the value of Morel. Outside of those two guys, what was the path that he could have taken to get us to 'challenging for the best record in the NL'?

[Tryptamine]

Just now, squally1313 said:

We've been in win now/contending mode for like 7 months since Hoyer took over. Did you want him to go balls out after the 2021 year where we went 27-45 in the second half? We won 74 games in 2022 and then he turned that into an 83 win team in 2023 after picking up what looks to be the best shortstop of the options that were available when you consider both production and contract. Yeah he should have picked up more relievers, but that's obviously not going to turn any team into 'the best team in the NL'. There wasn't a better offensive player traded at the deadline than Candelario, he just sucked for the Cubs. His 2021 first rounder is already in the major league rotation, his 2022 first rounder is a top 3 pitching prospect in baseball, and his 2023 pick destroyed the lower minors and is a top 50 prospect going into this year. Both those latter two guys could legitimately be at Wrigley by the all star break. 

We were never getting Ohtani. Morel for Soto straight up was like, a debate around here, and then the Yankees put together a package that, per Baseball Trade Values, almost tripled the value of Morel. Outside of those two guys, what was the path that he could have taken to get us to 'challenging for the best record in the NL'?

I don't recall saying this year. I mean going forward. 

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

I don't recall saying this year. I mean going forward. 

Yeah but what is that based on? Not signing Cody Bellinger like the other 29 GMs?

[Tryptamine]

6 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Yeah but what is that based on? Not signing Cody Bellinger like the other 29 GMs?

Based on how he continually waits out everyone else. He was aggressive on Bellinger in 2023, but it was a 1 year deal so there really wasn't much downside. I've yet to see him really be like, this is my guy and I'm going to get him, if I have to overpay a bit so be it. 

[Backtobanks]

53 minutes ago, thawv said:

He's not suggesting those players literally.  He said that.  He's just throwing out a couple of names as an example.  

I also added "or anyone else that would have an impact on this team".

[Tryptamine]

I mean, isn't it sad that we basically know going into near year's FA that, despite the inevitable million rumors, the Cubs aren't going to land Soto? I imagine it will be the same case with Sasaki. I'm going to hold out hope on Murakami because the more I watch the bigger fan boy I become, even though I know it's tremendously unlikely.

[CubinNY]

I get the angst, but let's wait and see what happens. 

[Bertz]

7 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I mean, isn't it sad that we basically know going into near year's FA that, despite the inevitable million rumors, the Cubs aren't going to land Soto? I imagine it will be the same case with Sasaki. I'm going to hold out hope on Murakami because the more I watch the bigger fan boy I become, even though I know it's tremendously unlikely.

Dodgers fans basically had the same criticisms of Friedman before this year.  He hadn't overextended for a FA in his decade running the team.  The glass half empty argument was that Betts fell into his lap, Freeman made a lot by 1B standards but not in absolute terms, and otherwise there'd been a ton of smoke but he'd never committed significant resources to a single player before.  It was all short term FAs and trades with a couple medium sized extensions to Turner/Muncy/Taylor.

This stuff is basically true until it's not.  To Squally's point it'd be stupid to assume Jed will operate the same way when he enters an offseason with a team unequivocally ready to win team as he has when he's entered the last few offseasons with a team that has multiple major holes and question marks.

[squally1313]

22 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Based on how he continually waits out everyone else. He was aggressive on Bellinger in 2023, but it was a 1 year deal so there really wasn't much downside. I've yet to see him really be like, this is my guy and I'm going to get him, if I have to overpay a bit so be it. 

1. Is that an approach that you think would lead to the Cubs being one of the best teams in baseball?
2. Are there obvious examples of other teams doing this? Weren't we all complaining about how long the Ohtani saga dragged out? Why didn't Friedman sign him in November?

[Tryptamine]

Just now, squally1313 said:

1. Is that an approach that you think would lead to the Cubs being one of the best teams in baseball?
2. Are there obvious examples of other teams doing this? Weren't we all complaining about how long the Ohtani saga dragged out? Why didn't Friedman sign him in November?

A December signing and still waiting out the market 1/3 of the way through February are 2 vastly different things.

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

A December signing and still waiting out the market 1/3 of the way through February are 2 vastly different things.

Yeah but that's a different argument than what you made earlier. Did you want him to pick one of these four, say that that is his guy, and overpay for him two months ago? 

[We Got The Whole 9]

27 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I mean, isn't it sad that we basically know going into near year's FA that, despite the inevitable million rumors, the Cubs aren't going to land Soto? I imagine it will be the same case with Sasaki. I'm going to hold out hope on Murakami because the more I watch the bigger fan boy I become, even though I know it's tremendously unlikely.

When they don't land Sasaki it won't be because of money. 

[Derwood]

16 minutes ago, username said:

Why might a team have interest in a guy who had a 4.1 WAR last year when they have other guys who had a 2.2 WAR last year?  GEE, I WONDER.  

 it could be argued that Springer underperformed while Bellinger over performed, if that normalizes, Bellinger seems like an expensive and redundant option for a team without open outfield or first base slots. 

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Backtobanks said:

Are you kidding?   Jed would refuse to trade the prospects necessary to acquire someone like Bergman or Tucker or anyone else that would really have an impact on this team.

And what do you use as a basis for this statement. When should he have traded prospects for proven talent up until this off season. They have not been competing the last few years and they really didn’t have the assets of value needed. I get your point, he hasn’t made any real big deal using the minor league talent. I just don’t agree he won’t. He really never was in position to. 

[Tim]

15 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

And what do you use as a basis for this statement. When should he have traded prospects for proven talent up until this off season. They have not been competing the last few years and they really didn’t have the assets of value needed. I get your point, he hasn’t made any real big deal using the minor league talent. I just don’t agree he won’t. He really never was in position to. 

B2B doesn't much care for Jed.

[Rcal10]

8 minutes ago, Tim said:

B2B doesn't much care for Jed.

I am not a huge fan either. I don’t hate him, but don’t think he is great either. But fair is fair. He has never had an opportunity to trade prospects for proven talent. So we don’t know what he will do. 

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Based on how he continually waits out everyone else. He was aggressive on Bellinger in 2023, but it was a 1 year deal so there really wasn't much downside. I've yet to see him really be like, this is my guy and I'm going to get him, if I have to overpay a bit so be it. 

He did it with Counsell.