Cubs offseason chit chat...

[CubinNY]

2 minutes ago, Rob said:

I'm not upset to lose out on Turner at that price. His value at this point is basically whatever is left in his bat, and it's showing some signs of age-related decline. He could bounce back, certainly. J.D. Martinez did last year. But Turner is 39. Each year that goes by makes it increasingly likely that he just falls off a cliff.

lose out? I don't know that he was actually a target.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Turner to Blue Jays.  1 year.

Per Morosi.

Great news for the Cubs

[Bertz]

2 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think this is setting up perfectly for a Chapman to San Francisco and Cody Bellinger to Chicago situation barring a team like the Angels or whatever coming in at Boras' price.

Even the Angels signed Aaron Hicks, which doesn't prevent a Bellinger signing but is a weird thing to do if you're planning to add yet another OFer.  My guess is they're Snell or bust.  Bellinger's options are the Cubs or doing the Jayson Werth thing and going to a bad team on the upswing but still a year or two early.  Tigers maybe?

I'm interested in the DH market too.  JDM, Jorge Soler, and Brandon Belt should all get 8 figure deals.  Then there's an army of lesser guys (e.g. Carlos Santana and Eddie Rosario) who will get closer to $5M.  The Mets seem liable to add one of the primo guys, and there've been rumblings about a Belt/Bochy reunion in Texas, but I have no idea who will sign the third one.  Plenty of other teams can still use DH help but they're cheaper teams I expect to shop in the Santana tier.  If Jed wants one of the primo DHs it seems like at least one will be there on a silver platter for him.

[LBiittner]

Just a random thought on a greyish off-season day. I'm not a statistical type of guy. But perhaps one of the more astute types can answer?

How many chances does the random typical 3rdbaseman handle in a random typical game? I understand a lot of variables play into the planning. Such as: what dominant hand of the pitch. Pull hitter or opposite way guy. And probably a gazillion more determinations unthought by me and unspoken by many?

The reason for my ask: how many chances could Morel bugger up in games at 3rd. (I know, short answer: all of them)

[Bertz]

17 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Just a random thought on a greyish off-season day. I'm not a statistical type of guy. But perhaps one of the more astute types can answer?

How many chances does the random typical 3rdbaseman handle in a random typical game? I understand a lot of variables play into the planning. Such as: what dominant hand of the pitch. Pull hitter or opposite way guy. And probably a gazillion more determinations unthought by me and unspoken by many?

The reason for my ask: how many chances could Morel bugger up in games at 3rd. (I know, short answer: all of them)

It's not a bad question.  So looking at a leaderboard for last year, if we add up putouts and assists the guys who played 3B full time had between 350-400.  So let's call it 2.5 chances per game?

My guess is it would vary significantly game by game though.  With Jameson Taillon on the mound, a righty flyball pitcher, you might get one or two.  With Jusin Steele on the mound, a lefty groundball artist, you probably get like 6 or 7.

TT's thrown around 3B being very matchup dependent.  And you've hit on one of the considerations,  matchups don't have to just be the opposing starting pitcher.  Assuming no more logs are thrown on the 3B fire I'd guess we'll see Madrigal start damn near every Justin Steele and Jordan Wicks game.  But with righties on the mound, or at least flyball lefties like Imanaga, I think there's a little more freedom to play Morel or Wisdom or Busch there.

[Bull]

On 1/28/2024 at 10:57 PM, Stratos said:

Me thinks they just filled the RHP high end setup role with Neris.  They could probably use another LHP in the pen, but they could also be done adding to the pen on MLB deals.

Leiter could be your primary lefty (even though he's a righty) with those splits.

[Irrelevant Dude]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

Assuming no more logs are thrown on the 3B fire I'd guess we'll see Madrigal start damn near every Justin Steele and Jordan Wicks game.

Until his hamstring explodes on April 20th.

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Until his hamstring explodes on April 20th.

420?

[Bull]

5 minutes ago, Stratos said:

420?

Geovanny Soto.

Yet another reason to hate the lack of nesting quotes. 

[Bertz]

If the pen had another closer caliber arm it would be a legitimate impact unit IMO.  Aiming a little lower, I wouldn't hate a boring-ish (but still quality) middle relief lefty like a Scott Alexander.  Not an absolute necessity with the guys already in house but I think it'd help.  

 

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, Bertz said:

If the pen had another closer caliber arm it would be a legitimate impact unit IMO.  Aiming a little lower, I wouldn't hate a boring-ish (but still quality) middle relief lefty like a Scott Alexander.  Not an absolute necessity with the guys already in house but I think it'd help.  

 

Hayden Wesneski for Hunter Harvey, who says no

[UMFan83]

Blah more of the same.  Just sign already lol

[Bertz]

17 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Hayden Wesneski for Hunter Harvey, who says no

That sounds pretty fair.  Given all the injuries there's a decent chance that Harvey's medicals are a huge mess, but talent/control wise that feels in the right neighborhood.

Similarly I tend to think Canario+ for one of the Marlins lefty relievers makes a ton of sense for both sides.

[gocubs218]

26 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Blah more of the same.  Just sign already lol

This is such a classic nothing burger Morosi tweet.

[Bertz]

Given the Cubs open in Arlington this is notable, especially paired with half their rotation eying a 2nd half return.

 

[Tryptamine]

4 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Hayden Wesneski for Hunter Harvey, who says no

I made my affinity for Harvey well known a dozen or so pages back. That would give the Cubs an absolutely fierce 7,8,9.

[Rcal10]

A while back biitner asked a question about how many chances a 3rd baseman get a game. Turns out, not that many. So knowing that and knowing Madrigal plays up because of a weaker arm, is it possible that Morel, playing back more because of a stronger arm, may actually get to more balls than Madrigal would have? Sure he will make more errors, but is it possible because he makes more plays on balls Madrigal has no chance at, he doesn’t hurt them that much at 3rd? 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

14 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

A while back biitner asked a question about how many chances a 3rd baseman get a game. Turns out, not that many. So knowing that and knowing Madrigal plays up because of a weaker arm, is it possible that Morel, playing back more because of a stronger arm, may actually get to more balls than Madrigal would have? Sure he will make more errors, but is it possible because he makes more plays on balls Madrigal has no chance at, he doesn’t hurt them that much at 3rd? 

Morel has made 9 errors as a MLB infielder, and 7 of them are throwing errors(77%).  For comparison, the 15 qualified 3B combined had 47% of their errors be throwing errors.  We don't have the split for his MiLB career, but we also know this isn't exactly out of character with the scouting report either, especially on the left side of the infield(6 of 7 errors throwing).  So if the net result is Morel gets to more balls than Madrigal but those put greater strain on his (superior) arm to make the play, then I think you're maximizing the situations that lead to his errors and I don't know if you come out ahead.

That said, the optimistic takeaway you could make here is that this is a mechanics issue, there's not a huge risk of him being stone handed and kicking 30 balls so possibly with repetition you can help drill him in avoiding those errors.  But as we've talked about before, the left side of the infield isn't exactly a place he lacks reps, so you'd hope to have seen more progress by now to be particularly optimistic.

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Morel has made 9 errors as a MLB infielder, and 7 of them are throwing errors(77%).  For comparison, the 15 qualified 3B combined had 47% of their errors be throwing errors.  We don't have the split for his MiLB career, but we also know this isn't exactly out of character with the scouting report either, especially on the left side of the infield(6 of 7 errors throwing).  So if the net result is Morel gets to more balls but those more balls than Madrigal but those put greater strain on his (superior) arm to make the play, then I think you're maximizing the situations that lead to his errors and I don't know if you come out ahead.

That said, the optimistic takeaway you could make here is that this is a mechanics issue, there's not a huge risk of him being stone handed and kicking 30 balls so possibly with repetition you can help drill him in avoiding those errors.  But as we've talked about before, the left side of the infield isn't exactly a place he lacks reps, so you'd hope to have seen more progress by now to be particularly optimistic.

But it might be a throwing error in a ball Madrigal wouldn’t even get too. Either way the guy is on second base. Not advocating Morel play 2rd. Just asking the question.

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

But it might be a throwing error in a ball Madrigal wouldn’t even get too. Either way the guy is on second base. Not advocating Morel play 2rd. Just asking the question.

This is a small sample size all around, obviously, but using the stat RngR, defined as follows:

RngR (range runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity.

In 560 innings at third Madrigal had a RngR of 1.6, and in 180 innings of third base between 2022 and 2023, Morel had a -1.6 RngR. I don't pretend to know anything about defensive metrics, but going to assume higher is better. Obviously then you could pick at the idea of what 'vicinity' means, which brings me to my next point:

For hitting, you have typically have thousands of data points and hundreds of thousands of data points to reference against. For fielding...for me, you kinda just got to trust that they know Morel's bat is clearly superior to Madrigal or Wisdom, they've seen him play defense in the system for like 7 years now, and they still refused to give him more than 5 games worth of time there.

I spent years thinking defense was worthless in an era where Ks are up, walks are up, home runs are up. But eventually I just accepted the data, trusted that teams and sites like FG were valuing this stuff appropriately, and bought in.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

12 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

But it might be a throwing error in a ball Madrigal wouldn’t even get too. Either way the guy is on second base. Not advocating Morel play 2rd. Just asking the question.

Scorers are generally pretty generous with not giving throwing errors on balls that might've been sure doubles, plus you're depriving Happ(who has his share of assists) the chance at the ball, etc.  I think the point is well taken and it's in the spirit that we don't want to index too hard on error totals if there's a big difference in range(hence why good defenders often have superficially inflated error totals).  For this particular comparison though, in my view I don't think it's a case where it changes a lot about how we view the defensive options.  Said another way, both Madrigal and Morel need to maximize their time to throw in order to be successful defensively, just for different reasons.  Madrigal can't throw hard enough to beat the runner otherwise, and when Morel has less time his mechanics fail him and the ball goes everywhere.

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

This is a small sample size all around, obviously, but using the stat RngR, defined as follows:

RngR (range runs): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by how the fielder is able to get to balls hit in his vicinity.

In 560 innings at third Madrigal had a RngR of 1.6, and in 180 innings of third base between 2022 and 2023, Morel had a -1.6 RngR. I don't pretend to know anything about defensive metrics, but going to assume higher is better. Obviously then you could pick at the idea of what 'vicinity' means, which brings me to my next point:

For hitting, you have typically have thousands of data points and hundreds of thousands of data points to reference against. For fielding...for me, you kinda just got to trust that they know Morel's bat is clearly superior to Madrigal or Wisdom, they've seen him play defense in the system for like 7 years now, and they still refused to give him more than 5 games worth of time there.

I spent years thinking defense was worthless in an era where Ks are up, walks are up, home runs are up. But eventually I just accepted the data, trusted that teams and sites like FG were valuing this stuff appropriately, and bought in.

I only mentioned it because there was an article on BN comparing Madrigal to Chapman. It mentioned Chapman plays much deeper so he gets to more balls. So his zone rating incorporates a larger area. I would assume Morel’s would as well. 

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Scorers are generally pretty generous with not giving throwing errors on balls that might've been sure doubles, plus you're depriving Happ(who has his share of assists) the chance at the ball, etc.  I think the point is well taken and it's in the spirit that we don't want to index too hard on error totals if there's a big difference in range(hence why good defenders often have superficially inflated error totals).  For this particular comparison though, in my view I don't think it's a case where it changes a lot about how we view the defensive options.  Said another way, both Madrigal and Morel need to maximize their time to throw in order to be successful defensively, just for different reasons.  Madrigal can't throw hard enough to beat the runner otherwise, and when Morel has less time his mechanics fail him and the ball goes everywhere.

Good point on the time it might take Morel to get off a throw. That is a factor as well. But on the official scorer not giving an eeeor on an errand throw., if the throw is wild and the guy gets second base due to the throw it is going to be a hit and an error. With Madrigal it would be just a double. 
Hey, just trying to find a spot for Morel so they can sign someone like JD Martinez 😬

[Derwood]

Has anyone mentioned that Turner signed with Toronto?

[Bertz]

7 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Hey, just trying to find a spot for Morel so they can sign someone like JD Martinez

I still think one of the DH's can be a fit even after Bellinger.  It pushes Morel into more of 10th man role but that's fine.  We know Counsell is big on load management, we know there will be IL trips, etc.  It makes it a little harder for PCA, Caissie, etc. to force their way onto the roster, but depending on your POV that might be more feature than bug.

I think the potential limiting factor is more resources than playing time.  TBD on how many dollars Jed still has in his piggyback, but for me the priority list for the rest of the offseason would go:

1. One of the Boras 4 (probably Bellinger)

<large gap>

2. Late inning reliever

3. Additional Bat

<medium gap>

4. High-end Rehabbing pitcher (Woodruff or Hendriks)

5. Middle Inning Lefty Reliever

The team doesn't necessarily need all five of those things, but if Jed comes down with three of them (inclusive of #1 obviously) I'll be pretty happy with how this winter ultimately turned out.