Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Jason Ross]

I think 3b could go sideways, but the Cubs have enough "options" early that they can likely salvage...something through June. By July 1st, there's Murray and Shaw who could provide ready, or a trade could provide support. It's not my *favorite* plan but I think it'll likely workout out well enough given the fluidity the Cubs can realistically have between internal options, prospects and trade potential. 

[Rcal10]

28 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think 3b could go sideways, but the Cubs have enough "options" early that they can likely salvage...something through June. By July 1st, there's Murray and Shaw who could provide ready, or a trade could provide support. It's not my *favorite* plan but I think it'll likely workout out well enough given the fluidity the Cubs can realistically have between internal options, prospects and trade potential. 

I really don’t like the idea of putting a band aid on it until June/July and hope Murray or Shaw can come in and save them there. I agree that could work. But I would rather have a proven guy there to start the season. And if Jed meant bats will be added, I would hope one of them would solve 3rd base (even if solving it meant a bat was added to play 1st and Busch moved to 3rd). Examples would be either Alonso or Naylor in a trade or Hoskins or Belt as a free agent. Maybe even Turner. That said, I like the idea of just putting Busch at 1st and trading for a third baseman. 
They have enough money left providing they will go over the 1st LT line, they have enough prospect capital to improve the position and they have enough options available who won’t block guys like Murray and Shaw in the future. They can just fill from what they have now, I just hope they don’t. 

[Jason Ross]

26 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I really don’t like the idea of putting a band aid on it until June/July and hope Murray or Shaw can come in and save them there. I agree that could work. But I would rather have a proven guy there to start the season. And if Jed meant bats will be added, I would hope one of them would solve 3rd base (even if solving it meant a bat was added to play 1st and Busch moved to 3rd). Examples would be either Alonso or Naylor in a trade or Hoskins or Belt as a free agent. Maybe even Turner. That said, I like the idea of just putting Busch at 1st and trading for a third baseman. 
They have enough money left providing they will go over the 1st LT line, they have enough prospect capital to improve the position and they have enough options available who won’t block guys like Murray and Shaw in the future. They can just fill from what they have now, I just hope they don’t. 

I think we will have to accept something isn't solved. I don't think Turner is a 3b any longer (and his batted ball is a bit concerning; he feels like he's a potential Mancini to me). The Cubs have options at 3b. There are worse things. 

Is it my favorite? Nope. Do I think it's doable based on sheer numbers? Yeah. Probably. The Cubs have 3 internal "night now" options and 2 internal prospect options who are maybes and so many tradable pieces that it feels like by September one of those will solve the problem. 

[ILMindState]

2 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think 3b could go sideways, but the Cubs have enough "options" early that they can likely salvage...something through June. By July 1st, there's Murray and Shaw who could provide ready, or a trade could provide support. It's not my *favorite* plan but I think it'll likely workout out well enough given the fluidity the Cubs can realistically have between internal options, prospects and trade potential. 

I’m curious what you think of Chapman. Do you think he projects as a better hitter than Cody moving forward due to better batted ball data?

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think we will have to accept something isn't solved. I don't think Turner is a 3b any longer (and his batted ball is a bit concerning; he feels like he's a potential Mancini to me). The Cubs have options at 3b. There are worse things. 

Is it my favorite? Nope. Do I think it's doable based on sheer numbers? Yeah. Probably. The Cubs have 3 internal "night now" options and 2 internal prospect options who are maybes and so many tradable pieces that it feels like by September one of those will solve the problem. 

I understand what you are saying. And there is a good chance you are right. But, I agree with you, it wouldn’t be my favorite plan either. However, if we take Jed at his word, they will add more than 1 bat. Even if Bellinger is 1 bat, what position would the second bat fill? Every position is filled if Morel is a DH. So if Jed is a straight shooter and we believe what he says, a second bat should be a 3rd baseman. IMO, if they start the season with a 3rd baseman who is already on the team and only add 1 bat, they shouldn’t be consider the favorite to win the central. And they really will have blown a great opportunity to do so. 

[Stratos]

13 hours ago, squally1313 said:

It's important to remember here that Jed Hoyer took over the team at the end of the covid year, 2020, at which time Ricketts was claiming 'biblical' losses, the team was coming off a technical playoff appearance, and really, things were just weird big picture (the biggest offseason signing across baseball was George Springer for 6/150, only three players got over 100m). His two significant signings that year were Joc Pederson (28 years old, 1/7) and Arrieta (34 years old, 1/6). It was very much a 'one last run with the core' season, and we all know how that went, but my bigger point is that it was a strange offseason, no one was totally sure what 2021 would look like etc. 

2022 was projected to be, and ended up being, a very bad team. No real point in signing veterans, and no real point for the veterans to want to sign here. Of the signings going into 2023, still very much considered a bridge year, Taillon, Smyly, Mancini, Barnhart, Boxberger, Hosmer were all in their 30s. 

All of this to say that we really don't know what preferences Hoyer has based on past performance, because he's never ran a team in the middle of their competitive window. No one really thought too much about Imanaga because we were all focused on Shohei and Soto, and I assume absolutely no one saw the Busch trade coming. 

Besides catchers like Gomes and Barnhart who have value from experience in handling a staff I can't even think of an older hitter Theo or Jed signed.  

[Stratos]

14 hours ago, gocubs218 said:

Levine mentioned Stanek, Stephenson and Ottavino for bullpen help along with Hader if he lowers his asking price to 2 or 3 years.

Also said Guardians asking for Horton for Clase, which is an obvious no.

Nice to get someone talented but I just can't see Jed signing Hader.  Maybe there's a trade somewhere.

[We Got The Whole 9]

13 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Besides catchers like Gomes and Barnhart who have value from experience in handling a staff I can't even think of an older hitter Theo or Jed signed.  

Mancini and Hosmer don't count?

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

Heck it kind of bothers me that we're making roster decisions based on Busch even though he's much farther along in his development cycle.  Just feel like we should have more flexibility at 1B in case he struggles.  Don't want to be stuck in another situation like last year with Hosmer/Mancini where it becomes a black hole for us.

I do like Shaw but I agree we shouldn't be holding spots on the roster for him.  That's what a small market club like the Royals would do.

They shouldn't sign a 3B for 4 years to block very good prospects either.  They'll probably sign an established corner INF bat who can at least play 1B.  We'd have them, Busch, Mervis, Wisdom, and Morel to play 1B.  Plus some guys in AAA like Murray, McGeary as backup.

I'm not that worried about 3B or 1B.   Worst case Morel is below average defensively at 3B but hits pretty well and puts up around 2.0 or 2.5 WAR or something and we're just average at 3B and 1B while being above average at most other positions.  Not the end of the world.  Our pen is pretty bad right now i'm more worried about that and CF/Bellinger.

[Stratos]

13 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Mancini and Hosmer don't count?

Mancini wasn't old, but Hosmer was so I guess he counts.  But also cost league minimum.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

37 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Besides catchers like Gomes and Barnhart who have value from experience in handling a staff I can't even think of an older hitter Theo or Jed signed.  

Zobrist

[Stratos]

13 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Well than all of Belt, Martinez and Turner are off the table. Sure, Belt can play 1st, but Jed already said that is Busch’s position. If they resign Bellinger he would be the fall back (or Morel) if Busch struggled. What we come back to is cubs really need that second bat to be a 3rd baseman. Assuming it can’t be Morel, and they do eventually sign Bellinger, that is the only position they need an upgrade bat. Which means they have to trade for one, assuming they don’t want to tie the option up long term. 

Bellinger definitely changes things at 1B if signed, we could go with a DH bat then.  I really have no idea how much they want Bellinger, he's a somewhat risky and likely longterm contract for a 1-2 year solution.  The fact that the Cubs have moved as slow as Boras has is indication they likely want him though.

We don't have any idea what they're going to do with the rest of the hitters, nobody predicted Busch either.  Looks like 1 or 2 more bats and some pen help that's all we know.

 

Edited January 18, 2024 by Stratos

[Stratos]

21 minutes ago, Bobson Dugnutt said:

Zobrist

Ok i'm wrong LOL. 

[Jason Ross]

8 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I understand what you are saying. And there is a good chance you are right. But, I agree with you, it wouldn’t be my favorite plan either. However, if we take Jed at his word, they will add more than 1 bat. Even if Bellinger is 1 bat, what position would the second bat fill? Every position is filled if Morel is a DH. So if Jed is a straight shooter and we believe what he says, a second bat should be a 3rd baseman. IMO, if they start the season with a 3rd baseman who is already on the team and only add 1 bat, they shouldn’t be consider the favorite to win the central. And they really will have blown a great opportunity to do so. 

Hoyer seemed to suggest the Cubs could add two bats, but it's hard to tell what kind of a bat that would be. It could be a situation in which the Cubs send a few spares out (Mervis/Canario/Wesneski/Asad group) and the Cubs need to replace depth. It could be a starter, he did suggest 1b could happen (which, what does that do to Morel?). 

There's a single third baseman on the market I think is a definitive upgrade over those crew and then a group of "I really don't knows". Like, JD Davis is still almost assuredly a DH in my book regardless of the single data point of OAA that suggests he got better (ala Patrick Wisdom's freshman year). He could be available if Chapman ends up in SF, but I think he's basically just Patrick Wisdom. Is he better? Are the Cubs going to jettison Mastro and Wisdom to add him and trade what it'd take? 

End result, the Cubs have a ton of "maybes" at third. I just don't think it'll be the position a second hitter comes in for.

[Jason Ross]

8 hours ago, ILMindState said:

I’m curious what you think of Chapman. Do you think he projects as a better hitter than Cody moving forward due to better batted ball data?

They're like...two sides of the same coin. Chapman has good batted ball data but questionable approach changes have created a pretty mediocre hitter (sub 90 wRC+ for five months last year, 110 wRC+ hitter since 2020). His approach is very similar to many the Cubs have: they strike out and hit the ball in the air (Dansby Swanson) and are marginally better than league average.

Bellinger has a solid approach and dinks and dunks a lot. His speed, however, can make up for some of that, stretching a few singles into doubles. With that said, the batted ball data suggests he's not 35% better than league average, but like...more 10-20% better. 

Who would I take? I'll take Bellinger, probably. He's a bit younger, I think his approach of "get the ball in play and I'll hit 25 home runs too" is probably a little more needed on the Cubs. His base running and versatility are helpers. So in a vacuum I'll say...Bellinger is probably the slightly better hitter but I think they probably both end up closer to one another than farther, if that makes sense. Contractually...not sure who would be the better buy.

[Rob]

They've both got some pretty big warts, but gun to my head -- I'd probably say Chapman is the better bet for the short term. But it'd be darn near even odds on that bet.

Chapman's approach has always led to some streaky results. But right when he was mashing the ball in late July / early August is when he jammed his finger. So it's possible some of the massive 2nd half downturn is simply due to trying to play through that injury. If so, there's a pretty easy path to see how his bat recovers.

There's just a lot more going on with Bellinger's batted ball data and approach, and that lends itself to more uncertainty. If I had faith last year's production could be replicated, he'd be the easy choice. That's particularly true over the length of a long-term contract. But I just don't have that faith.

 

[CubinNY]

14 hours ago, Petrey10 said:

Book it. 

That's an oldie, but a goodie! 

Honestly, minor leaguers are like scratch-off tickets. If you are hoping to get rich, you're bound to be disappointed. I'm as high on Shaw as anyone, but the Cubs are not a strong enough team to hold a seat for anyone. And more to the point, we don't know if Shaw can play 3B at a high level. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Hoyer seemed to suggest the Cubs could add two bats, but it's hard to tell what kind of a bat that would be. It could be a situation in which the Cubs send a few spares out (Mervis/Canario/Wesneski/Asad group) and the Cubs need to replace depth. It could be a starter, he did suggest 1b could happen (which, what does that do to Morel?). 

There's a single third baseman on the market I think is a definitive upgrade over those crew and then a group of "I really don't knows". Like, JD Davis is still almost assuredly a DH in my book regardless of the single data point of OAA that suggests he got better (ala Patrick Wisdom's freshman year). He could be available if Chapman ends up in SF, but I think he's basically just Patrick Wisdom. Is he better? Are the Cubs going to jettison Mastro and Wisdom to add him and trade what it'd take? 

End result, the Cubs have a ton of "maybes" at third. I just don't think it'll be the position a second hitter comes in for.

This is true. There really isn’t a good fit. But I don’t see just a 2nd bat added without a chance that guy can play 3rd, if they got Bellinger as the first bat. That  bat would be taking AB from Morel then. And to me, that doesn’t make sense. But like you said, Cubs have a lot of “maybes” at 3rd. And maybe Morel is going to get time at 3rd. Or maybe Morel will go to first and Busch to 3rd. That does open up the second bat to be anyone. I know what Jed has said. I also know it doesn’t appear they feel Morel can play 3rd. But “maybe” that is something being worked on right now. Maybe they can live with some errors at 3rd along with some very nice plays. My guess is he will make many more errors than Madrigal made. But because he can play deeper at 3rd because of his arm, he will probably get to more balls too. I know it is a reach but since we are throwing maybe 3rd baseman into the conversation, why not Morel and Busch too. Then any bat would make a lot of sense.

[CubinNY]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

This is true. There really isn’t a good fit. But I don’t see just a 2nd bat added without a chance that guy can play 3rd, if they got Bellinger as the first bat. That  bat would be taking AB from Morel then. And to me, that doesn’t make sense. But like you said, Cubs have a lot of “maybes” at 3rd. And maybe Morel is going to get time at 3rd. Or maybe Morel will go to first and Busch to 3rd. That does open up the second bat to be anyone. I know what Jed has said. I also know it doesn’t appear they feel Morel can play 3rd. But “maybe” that is something being worked on right now. Maybe they can live with some errors at 3rd along with some very nice plays. My guess is he will make many more errors than Madrigal made. But because he can play deeper at 3rd because of his arm, he will probably get to more balls too. I know it is a reach but since we are throwing maybe 3rd baseman into the conversation, why not Morel and Busch too. Then any bat would make a lot of sense.

I think they are happy with Madrigal and Wisdom. I'm not, but they are. 

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I think they are happy with Madrigal and Wisdom. I'm not, but they are. 

I’m not either. But I also am not so sure they are happy with them either. Jed said we are in the 4th or 5th inning of the off season. He surprised us with Busch and even Imanaga. Maybe he has something else cooking. 

[CubinNY]

3 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I don’t think they’re happy with Madrigal and Wisdom full stop, but rather Madrigal, Wisdom, Murray, I’ll say Shaw…I won’t be too surprised when Murray takes the job this season, maybe sooner rather than later 

Keep banging the drum. 

[Jason Ross]

43 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

This is true. There really isn’t a good fit. But I don’t see just a 2nd bat added without a chance that guy can play 3rd, if they got Bellinger as the first bat. That  bat would be taking AB from Morel then. And to me, that doesn’t make sense. But like you said, Cubs have a lot of “maybes” at 3rd. And maybe Morel is going to get time at 3rd. Or maybe Morel will go to first and Busch to 3rd. That does open up the second bat to be anyone. I know what Jed has said. I also know it doesn’t appear they feel Morel can play 3rd. But “maybe” that is something being worked on right now. Maybe they can live with some errors at 3rd along with some very nice plays. My guess is he will make many more errors than Madrigal made. But because he can play deeper at 3rd because of his arm, he will probably get to more balls too. I know it is a reach but since we are throwing maybe 3rd baseman into the conversation, why not Morel and Busch too. Then any bat would make a lot of sense.

Unless there is a good fit, then I can't see how the Cubs will add what might be a sixth "maybe" to the set. You've got Madrigal, Wisdom, Mastrobuoni, Morel and Busch who could all maybe do it. They'd probably have to lose one, maybe two. At some point there's just too many maybes for you to even have the ability to find an answer.

We went into the offseason thinking the Cubs would add two hitters of consequence. They've added Busch. I'm not sure they'll add two still. They could but I think it's likely Bellinger + something small offensively, unless there's a bigger trade coming that sends something else out (Morel?).

[Rcal10]

20 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I don’t think they’re happy with Madrigal and Wisdom full stop, but rather Madrigal, Wisdom, Murray, I’ll say Shaw…I won’t be too surprised when Murray takes the job this season, maybe sooner rather than later 

Maybe. But if you want to win the division you don’t do it counting on a prospect coming up in June to save the day. Especially, in the case of Murray, a guy not in your top 10 prospects and not a top 100 prospect. In the case of Shaw, not a guy with 150 minor league AB before the start of the season you expect him up. It could happen. Just not a good game plan IMO.

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Unless there is a good fit, then I can't see how the Cubs will add what might be a sixth "maybe" to the set. You've got Madrigal, Wisdom, Mastrobuoni, Morel and Busch who could all maybe do it. They'd probably have to lose one, maybe two. At some point there's just too many maybes for you to even have the ability to find an answer.

We went into the offseason thinking the Cubs would add two hitters of consequence. They've added Busch. I'm not sure they'll add two still. They could but I think it's likely Bellinger + something small offensively, unless there's a bigger trade coming that sends something else out (Morel?).

I could be wrong, but I thought the mention of another 2 bats being added was after they got Busch.. so he wouldn’t be one of the bats Jed was talking about. The more we talk about it, a second bat playing anywhere makes a lot more sense if the Cubs do think either Busch or Morel can play 3rd. That opens up all kinds of options. But if they can’t I don’t see a point to a second small bat, if not for 3rd. Why take AB away from Morel for a small bat? As you said, if it isn’t a good fit why do it? Why even add a second bat in that case? 

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

I could be wrong, but I thought the mention of another 2 bats being added was after they got Busch.. so he wouldn’t be one of the bats Jed was talking about. The more we talk about it, a second bat playing anywhere makes a lot more sense if the Cubs do think either Busch or Morel can play 3rd. That opens up all kinds of options. But if they can’t I don’t see a point to a second small bat, if not for 3rd. Why take AB away from Morel for a small bat? As you said, if it isn’t a good fit why do it? Why even add a second bat in that case? 

There really wasn't a rubber stamp guarantee. Hoyer talked about how they still wanted to add offense. That the Cubs wanted to get better at hitting right handed hitters. There's been speculation he meant two starting level hitters, but I'm not going to take him at his word that what he meant was "two MLB starting players". It could be a lot of things. I think we'll add Bellinger, but I'm not entirely convinced there will be a second addition to the "most of the time" lineup.