Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Bertz]

46 minutes ago, Post Count Padder said:

I know we've cooled on him but Mervis still should hold value. I've been wondering if there's a way we could swing a deal with him for a controllable reliever like a James Karinchak. Is that too unreasonable? Not necessarily a one-for-one.

Like others I don't know that I love Karinchak specifically, but I do think Mervis going out in a deal for relief help makes a lot of sense.  I also think, depending on the bats that get brought in, you could argue Wisdom makes a similar amount of sense. 

[Rcal10]

26 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Like others I don't know that I love Karinchak specifically, but I do think Mervis going out in a deal for relief help makes a lot of sense.  I also think, depending on the bats that get brought in, you could argue Wisdom makes a similar amount of sense. 

They can also be used for a different bat. Mervis or Wisdom + for Polanco or Davis? Then sign the pen arm. Makes more sense for Polanco if the Twins are in a salary drop mode. 

[Backtobanks]

5 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Value wise, absolutely,  but this also means you must acquire Chapman or make a trade for a 3B, because all the internal options are gone.

I think Urshula is still out there.  You might get him on a one year deal with an optional 2nd year.

 

[soccer10k]

On 1/13/2024 at 2:27 PM, 1908_Cubs said:

I would eat my shoe if Scott Boras allowed that. At 6 years that's under $140m. $20m+ under Brandon Nimmo's total. 

Boras is the best in the business for a reason. He'll get someone to give him $160-$180m. Or get that really high AAV stuff. It might not be Chicago, but it'll be someone. I don't think he's getting this $200m+ deal he was banging his chest about, but he won't lose that much.

I'll put it this way as well: I appreciate Swasnon really wants Bellinger back, but he's probably not helping as much as he thinks he is.

Nimmo and KB also didn’t have two awful years like Bellinger did in 2021 and 2022. The closest each came were in 2016 for Nimmo (80 PA as a rookie) and 2020 for KB (147 PAs in the weird Covid year). Bellinger had 350 and 550 PAs in his two bad years. There’s going to be some skepticism from teams because of that.

of course like you said, all it takes is one team to go above and beyond.

[BTM33]

If you read through the last few pages of the thread you would assume Bellinger was already on the team...

I would hate to see the reaction if he isnt re-signed. There will be plenty of people who will complain if he gets too much money, but almost no one outright doesn't want him back, myself included.

They had better get that done.

 

I was against Matt Chapman at 3rd...but there is a part if me that would looooooove to watch that defensive infield.

[LBiittner]

I'm wondering if Caleb Theilbar could interest Jed as a late inning lefty?

Rcal: maybe package Theilbar with polonco?  (If I'm giving up Assad, I want more meat on the bone)

Edited January 17, 2024 by LBiittner

[Stratos]

7 hours ago, Bertz said:

I've been thinking a lot about 3B the last few days, and I've been thinking about it in the context of TT's great point about not having a set lineup. and I've been thinking about Jed emphasizing the team's needs as an ability to hit RHP instead of a specific position or two.

My guess is the team is going to run Madrigal out there as the primary 3B, but that they're comfortable with another one of the options getting significant time if things break a certain way.  Probably Busch, Jed talked up his versatility and IMO his ability to fake it as a 2B has zero utility for this team.  He'd be like, 6th on the depth chart?  "Versatility" has pretty much got to allude to his 3B experience.

So what's the plan?  It's to acquire Bellinger and another bat.  And I do mean bat   The primary consideration with this guy is offense.  Jed wants someone who can compliment the current set of hitters, and if he plays 1B or 3B or something that's a bonus.  I kind of like Justin Turner.  Minimal splits, pretty much the platonic ideal of a "professional hitter" which compliments Wisdom/Morel, and he is an emergency option at 3rd.  Age is an obvious concern but on a 1 year deal shouldn't be the end of the world.

So what you've got is half of your lineup is set.  Happ, Seiya, Swanson, and Hoerner all play every day at the positions you generally expect.  The catchers have a timeshare, but it's based on rest and pitchers not offense.

CF, 3B, 1B, and DH though vary wild day by day.  Bellinger plays everyday, but where he plays depends on matchups.  The other three spots depend on the day.  Steele's pitching?  We want Madrigal and Bellinger manning the infield corners to max out defense.  Opposing pitcher is a sinkerballer?  Let's get Wisdom and Morel in there.  Etc.

This also lets you fold the kids in as they're ready.  Put them into the rotation and break them in with optimal matchups.

Jed seems to avoid older players like Turner.  I agree with the strategy because you're paying for past production and the odds say they're more likely to decline in performance than have upside.  If the price is right he'd sign him but another team probably offers more.

Cubs have many more assets in the minors and some are going to need to move, so we could see a trade, or another FA signing.  Hoskins or whomever.

If it were me I'd scout and figure out who is more likely to be a better 3B vs 1B between Morel vs Busch.  if it's Morel then in ST you play him mostly at 3B and give him some time at 1B, and with Busch you do the opposite but primarily at 1B.  If Morel can't handle 3B then swap him with Busch at 1B.  Madrigal is a backup option if all fails and who can start at 3B if the Cubs have a contact SP like Hendricks or groundball pitcher like Steele on the mound, or in situations like you mention like the wind howling in.

[Rcal10]

17 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Jed seems to avoid older players like Turner.  I agree with the strategy because you're paying for past production and the odds say they're more likely to decline in performance than have upside.  If the price is right he'd sign him but another team probably offers more.

Cubs have many more assets in the minors and some are going to need to move, so we could see a trade, or another FA signing.  Hoskins or whomever.

If it were me I'd scout and figure out who is more likely to be a better 3B vs 1B between Morel vs Busch.  if it's Morel then in ST you play him mostly at 3B and give him some time at 1B, and with Busch you do the opposite but primarily at 1B.  If Morel can't handle 3B then swap him with Busch at 1B.  Madrigal is a backup option if all fails and who can start at 3B if the Cubs have a contact SP like Hendricks or groundball pitcher like Steele on the mound, or in situations like you mention like the wind howling in.

Signing Turner or JD Martinez on a 1 year deal is different than signing a guy who is 30 for 8 years. Turner and JD last year were both very good. Even if they did go with Busch and Morel on the corners, which most doubt they will do, they still need another bat. Having them for just 24’ isn’t blocking anyone either. If they fall off in 24’ it is one year of bad production where they would have bad production anyway, if they didn’t pick anyone up. 

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Signing Turner or JD Martinez on a 1 year deal is different than signing a guy who is 30 for 8 years. Turner and JD last year were both very good. Even if they did go with Busch and Morel on the corners, which most doubt they will do, they still need another bat. Having them for just 24’ isn’t blocking anyone either. If they fall off in 24’ it is one year of bad production where they would have bad production anyway, if they didn’t pick anyone up. 

Yes that's true, but we still don't know if or by how much they're going to fall off due to age regression.  Jed seems to prefer to sign guys, even on 1 yr or minor league deals, who are at their peak age years of 26-30.  With someone like Hoskins you get upside, with Turner and Martinez etc you get downside.

They're still an option, Belt is too and he'll be 36, you can get a discount for the downside risk for older players and can sign them for 1 yr, and yeah it's not like signing Abreu for 3 years, but i'm just saying it's not something Hoyer has done in the past.  My main hope is he doesn't sign any fringe position players for millions like the last 2 years.  I think Turner probably qualifies for that, but Martinez or Belt probably don't.

[Rcal10]

6 hours ago, Stratos said:

Yes that's true, but we still don't know if or by how much they're going to fall off due to age regression.  Jed seems to prefer to sign guys, even on 1 yr or minor league deals, who are at their peak age years of 26-30.  With someone like Hoskins you get upside, with Turner and Martinez etc you get downside.

They're still an option, Belt is too and he'll be 36, you can get a discount for the downside risk for older players and can sign them for 1 yr, and yeah it's not like signing Abreu for 3 years, but i'm just saying it's not something Hoyer has done in the past.  My main hope is he doesn't sign any fringe position players for millions like the last 2 years.  I think Turner probably qualifies for that, but Martinez or Belt probably don't.

I thought Turner was done too until looking at this numbers. He was pretty solid. I don’t think any of them qualify as a fringe player the Cubs would hope can hit. All can hit and did hit last year, similar to career marks. My biggest issue with any of these guys is who then plays 3rd? If not Morel you are signing this guy to DH, which would take AB for Morel. I want bays taken away from whoever they have penciled in at 3rd now, not Morel. 

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

I thought Turner was done too until looking at this numbers. He was pretty solid. I don’t think any of them qualify as a fringe player the Cubs would hope can hit. All can hit and did hit last year, similar to career marks. My biggest issue with any of these guys is who then plays 3rd? If not Morel you are signing this guy to DH, which would take AB for Morel. I want bays taken away from whoever they have penciled in at 3rd now, not Morel. 

Turner was solid with the bat but also a DH so 1.2 WAR over a full season I believe, which was near what Manini had when signed.  They may prefer a hitter who can also play the field adequately.

[gocubs218]

Levine mentioned Stanek, Stephenson and Ottavino for bullpen help along with Hader if he lowers his asking price to 2 or 3 years.

Also said Guardians asking for Horton for Clase, which is an obvious no.

[squally1313]

8 hours ago, Stratos said:

Yes that's true, but we still don't know if or by how much they're going to fall off due to age regression.  Jed seems to prefer to sign guys, even on 1 yr or minor league deals, who are at their peak age years of 26-30.  With someone like Hoskins you get upside, with Turner and Martinez etc you get downside.

It's important to remember here that Jed Hoyer took over the team at the end of the covid year, 2020, at which time Ricketts was claiming 'biblical' losses, the team was coming off a technical playoff appearance, and really, things were just weird big picture (the biggest offseason signing across baseball was George Springer for 6/150, only three players got over 100m). His two significant signings that year were Joc Pederson (28 years old, 1/7) and Arrieta (34 years old, 1/6). It was very much a 'one last run with the core' season, and we all know how that went, but my bigger point is that it was a strange offseason, no one was totally sure what 2021 would look like etc. 

2022 was projected to be, and ended up being, a very bad team. No real point in signing veterans, and no real point for the veterans to want to sign here. Of the signings going into 2023, still very much considered a bridge year, Taillon, Smyly, Mancini, Barnhart, Boxberger, Hosmer were all in their 30s. 

All of this to say that we really don't know what preferences Hoyer has based on past performance, because he's never ran a team in the middle of their competitive window. No one really thought too much about Imanaga because we were all focused on Shohei and Soto, and I assume absolutely no one saw the Busch trade coming. 

[Bertz]

23 minutes ago, gocubs218 said:

Levine mentioned Stanek, Stephenson and Ottavino for bullpen help along with Hader if he lowers his asking price to 2 or 3 years.

Also said Guardians asking for Horton for Clase, which is an obvious no.

Stanek and Ottavino are a big step down from those other guys.  I would not be happy with them if they're the big RP get, even though I like them in a vacuum.

Wonder if Almonte more or less didn't count and the plan is still 2 more relievers from here.  Because of those 5 names Hader and Clase are in one tier, Stephenson is a step down from that, and Stanek/Ottavino are another down from that.

[Tryptamine]

38 minutes ago, gocubs218 said:

Levine mentioned Stanek, Stephenson and Ottavino for bullpen help along with Hader if he lowers his asking price to 2 or 3 years.

Also said Guardians asking for Horton for Clase, which is an obvious no.

Alcantara is as high up the prospect list as I'm willing to go for a reliever. Anything involving PCA, Horton, Shaw and even Caissie, I could be somewhere becomes irate and unhappy. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

Turner was solid with the bat but also a DH so 1.2 WAR over a full season I believe, which was near what Manini had when signed.  They may prefer a hitter who can also play the field adequately.

Well than all of Belt, Martinez and Turner are off the table. Sure, Belt can play 1st, but Jed already said that is Busch’s position. If they resign Bellinger he would be the fall back (or Morel) if Busch struggled. What we come back to is cubs really need that second bat to be a 3rd baseman. Assuming it can’t be Morel, and they do eventually sign Bellinger, that is the only position they need an upgrade bat. Which means they have to trade for one, assuming they don’t want to tie the option up long term. 

[Derwood]

Sharma speculating that our interest in Hoskins is low

[Cuzi]

1 minute ago, Derwood said:

Sharma speculating that our interest in Hoskins is low

Not really that surprising. They just filled the 1B position and have a DH in Morel/Wisdom.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

7 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Sharma speculating that our interest in Hoskins is low

Where is that?  I'm not seeing a recent tweet or Athletic piece referencing Hoskins one way or another.

[Jason Ross]

11 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Sharma speculating that our interest in Hoskins is low

Yeah, sounds about right. I know that Hoyer mentioned that trading for Busch wouldn't preclude them from adding a 1b, but I wonder if that was more lipservice or a mention of Bellinger (who would have to move off of CF if the Cubs promote PCA) more so than Hoskins.

[Derwood]

7 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Where is that?  I'm not seeing a recent tweet or Athletic piece referencing Hoskins one way or another.

I don’t subscribe, so have t seen the direct source, but:

 

”

With Busch, assuming he hits, likely serving as the team's first baseman for the next several years, Hoskins no longer appears to be a clear fit for the Cubs given they are also prioritizing the return of Cody Bellinger. 

To that end, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic (Subscription Required) wrote over the weekend that the Cubs' interest in Hoskins likely decreased with the trade for Busch last week”

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Ah, the one from Monday, yeah he said Busch decreases the likelihood, and probably eliminates the chance they offer Hoskins a multi-year deal, but that part likely isn't limiting given Hoskins situation and he doesn't say they're not interested or anything sourced about him in particular.

[CubinNY]

I'm interested in what happens when/if they sign Bellinger. I know there are a lot of ABs to go around in a season, but this would seem to at least make the Cubs listen to offers for Armstrong. 

[Bull]

20 minutes ago, Derwood said:

I don’t subscribe, so have t seen the direct source, but:

 

”

With Busch, assuming he hits, likely serving as the team's first baseman for the next several years, Hoskins no longer appears to be a clear fit for the Cubs given they are also prioritizing the return of Cody Bellinger. 

To that end, Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic (Subscription Required) wrote over the weekend that the Cubs' interest in Hoskins likely decreased with the trade for Busch last week”

The new board format with quotes only going one deep makes it very difficult to follow context in mega threads. Unless I’m reading multiple pages at a time it is hard remember what what was responding to. The last few days (snow days) I’ve been coming here multiple times a day and have to re-read a page to follow the flow. Board moderators should either allow nested quotes or kill the mega threads if they want these forums to be enjoyable to visit multiple times a day, maximizing ad revenue.

[Backtobanks]

40 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I'm interested in what happens when/if they sign Bellinger. I know there are a lot of ABs to go around in a season, but this would seem to at least make the Cubs listen to offers for Armstrong. 

This is  what I have been saying for quite a while.  I believe signing Bellinger gives you a solid, productive CF for about 4 years and PCA's trade value goes a long way toward acquiring someone like Clase or a young, controlled TOR.  The trade would have to be for a "sure thing" though.