Cubs offseason chit chat...

[JHBulls]

What the Dodgers have done this winter has to be the single best FA/trade period a MLB club has ever had. 

[CubinNY]

5 hours ago, JHBulls said:

What the Dodgers have done this winter has to be the single best FA/trade period a MLB club has ever had. 

Save that for October, not the playoffs, but the regular season. I love what they've done. But they're already closing in on a win-ceiling in a typical year. It's tough to improve on a 100-win season.

At the same time, who cares, right? This is MLB, make the best team you can. I wish the Cubs would try to do that sometime. 

[Petrey10]

12 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Yep. Not aging well. Took a shot. 

Yeahhhh swing and a miss like schwarber there…

[Rcal10]

21 minutes ago, Petrey10 said:

Yeahhhh swing and a miss like schwarber there…

This has been a ridiculous off season up until now. But really if the Cubs FO is interested in Hoskins, Bellinger and/or Chapman you would expect it to drag on. Boras clients tend to do that. Add that to waiting on Imanaga and you have nothing happening. The lack of Cubs activity tells me those are the guys Jed is targeting. Because the only other option would be Jed just doesn’t care to improve the team this year. And I don’t believe that. Things will happen, but it will be on Boras’ time line. 

[Jason Ross]

Sharma just posted an article on The Athletic this morning. There's nothing really "quote worthy" IMO, but a quick summary is simply that Hoyer is operating the way most of us understand and have thought: it's a patient process. They've contacted every team to discuss trade scenarios, have discussed multiple free agents. They didn't see 2024 as an "all-in" season. They did not believe they'd get Ohtani, and did engage on Soto originally but dropped out when they saw the Yankees offering what they were. They did drop out on Yamamoto relatively early because they didn't like the price. They do understand they need to be irrational about a player, but when they see multiple other teams willing to be irrational, are not willing to bid those teams up. 

We'll see if it pays off.

[CubinNY]

10 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Sharma just posted an article on The Athletic this morning. There's nothing really "quote worthy" IMO, but a quick summary is simply that Hoyer is operating the way most of us understand and have thought: it's a patient process. They've contacted every team to discuss trade scenarios, have discussed multiple free agents. They didn't see 2024 as an "all-in" season. They did not believe they'd get Ohtani, and did engage on Soto originally but dropped out when they saw the Yankees offering what they were. They did drop out on Yamamoto relatively early because they didn't like the price. They do understand they need to be irrational about a player, but when they see multiple other teams willing to be irrational, are not willing to bid those teams up. 

We'll see if it pays off.

That's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see if it pays off.

------------

I would have been all in Yamamoto, but maybe not for the years he got. I get Ohtani and Soto, but They should have been more transparent with Ohtani. 

I hope like hell they target Soto next year, but he's going to go off in the Bronx. 

[Bertz]

Two bits I think are worth sharing 

Quote

As of Sunday evening, 23 of The Athletic’s top 40 free agents remained unsigned. Bellinger, Rhys Hoskins, Jordan Montgomery and Matt Chapman all are very realistic targets who would improve the Cubs’ current roster. Shoto Imanaga is a fit, even if the Cubs aren’t viewed as favorites to land him. Even players the Cubs are unlikely to view as priorities — like Josh Hader or Blake Snell — can’t be completely ruled out. At a certain point, any player can become attractive.

 

Quote

It’s been a month since Hoyer talked about the need to have “a lot of lines in the water.” Fans may wonder why nothing has gotten done yet, but by all accounts, despite the Cubs’ inactivity, officials have done exactly that. They have checked in with all 29 teams on the availability of certain trade candidates and actively engaged in talks with numerous clubs.

 

[Rcal10]

23 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Two bits I think are worth sharing 

 

 

I agree with all of this. But it is a dangerous game Jed is playing. Only takes one team for each guy to mess up his plan. Only takes one team to pull the trigger on a trade and get the guy the Cubs are targeting but are waiting to see how FA turns out before making a trade. If it works they will have a nice team going into 24’. Won’t be the Dodgers or the Braves, but it doesn’t have to be. Just has to be good enough to win the central. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

In mid-December I thought that the plan looked something along these lines:

On 12/15/2023 at 10:06 AM, Transmogrified Tiger said:

If I had to guess, I think the plan is roughly along these lines:

• Trade for Bieber and maybe like Karinchak.  That gives you your rotation stability, gives you RP upside, doesn't commit large dollars, years, or even likely trade assets.  Something like Canario and Arias is probably not so far away?
• Also get a FA SP, but more on your terms.  Imanaga is the deluxe version of this but we've seen names like Wacha and Martin Perez connected at least once, and in that permutation I think they're as much to give you permission to trade from the Wesneski/Assad/Brown group as anything
• Sign a FA RP to a 1 year deal.  If you've gambled on upside with Karinchak then maybe someone like Suter is the pairing?  He might be as "successful" an RP you can get to sign a 1 year deal
• Wait out Bellinger and Chapman's markets, with the intent of making sure you get one.
• Get a secondary bat.  This is where it depends on how far the Bellinger/Chapman markets come down and who your second SP is, because there's the range from signing Hoskins to trading for Polanco to playing in the JDM/Belt FA waters, to some type of off the radar trade(Alonso?  Moncada?)

Since then and especially with the Hottovy radio comments, I think the SP is viewed as a singular role and there's probably a greater emphasis on the bullpen(maybe increased since the Counsell hire?).  In that light, I think you can break this into 3 chunks:
 

• Most of the good fits for bats are still available, and they're heavily Boras dependent.  Was probably always gonna take until January given the weak class unless a good trade presented itself.
• Most RP options are still available as well, and especially if they aren't sprinting to hand out a 3+ year deal, those always take until January
• SP has dwindled somewhat but if you're only getting one then a lot of the options that have come off the board you'd prefer to see as contingencies, and even some of the heavier targets have slightly higher risks in that context(e.g. risking Glasnow's health if he's the only SP).

 

I'm dumb enough to keep thinking Lucy won't pull away the football this time, but I do wonder if they don't pull down Imanaga that they don't get very serious about whatever trade irons are in the fire.  I think some of those teams have probably been holding a pretty high price until options started dwindling(especially given the lack of worst case scenario so far from the Bally situation), so maybe this is the point where things start getting across the finish line.

[Jfoley89]

I'm a little surprised Hoyer got Ross' blood on his hands for this offseason. We'll keep waiting, but feels like a weird move to try and wait and see yourself into the playoffs. 

[Bertz]

Boston is not going to pull down one of the lefties.  It's also become clear. if it wasn't already, why they had to double promote Breslow as opposed to getting someone who had already led a team before.

 

[JBears79]

13 hours ago, gocubs218 said:

Make it stop 

Good, I was starting to get concerned. The Dodgers hadnt signed anyone in a few days.

[Jason Ross]

27 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Boston is not going to pull down one of the lefties.  It's also become clear. if it wasn't already, why they had to double promote Breslow as opposed to getting someone who had already led a team before.

 

And why they brought in Breslow to begin with, I think. Not only with the Boston connect, but that he learned under Hoyer and Co who basically was asked to do similar things in Chicago.

[CubinNY]

1 minute ago, 1908_Cubs said:

And why they brought in Breslow to begin with, I think. Not only with the Boston connect, but that he learned under Hoyer and Co who basically was asked to do similar things in Chicago.

Indeed. 

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I'm dumb enough to keep thinking Lucy won't pull away the football this time, but I do wonder if they don't pull down Imanaga that they don't get very serious about whatever trade irons are in the fire.

I also wonder if Imanaga’s specific salary allows for one path and after that closes it provides Jed some clarity.  Shota is going to, setting aside the posting fee, cost at most about $20M per year, maybe something like Taillon’s $17M on the low end.  Montgomery and Snell are going to be $25-30M.  For a team that has 4-5 other holes to fill, that $5-10M can be significant.  I wouldn't be surprised if Jed is hoping to land Imanaga, and if not pulls the rip cord and abandons the FA SP pool.  For example: 

 

Plan A

Cody Bellinger - $25M

Shota Imanaga - $20M

Robert Stephenson - $10M

Anthony Santander (trade) - $12M

Hunter Harvey (trade) - $3M

Plan B

Cody Bellinger - $25M

Rhys Hoskins - $18M

Robert Stephenson - $10M

David Robertson - $10M

Jesus Luzardo (trade) - $6M

 

Broadly both plans are similar, but whether you utilize money or prospects to address SP impacts which resource you have to address one of the bats and one of the relievers. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

6 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I also wonder if Imanaga’s specific salary allows for one path and after that closes it provides Jed some clarity.  Shota is going to, setting aside the posting fee, cost at most about $20M per year, maybe something like Taillon’s $17M on the low end.  Montgomery and Snell are going to be $25-30M.  For a team that has 4-5 other holes to fill, that $5-10M can be significant. 

Yep, I know they've been at least superficially linked to the others and they have to get at least one SP in general, but I think the odds of Snell's deal coming down to a place where they'd give up a pick for him(on top of potentially foregoing one for Bellinger/Chapman) are basically nil, and as you illustrate Montgomery seems dead set on 25+ million AAV and has a couple persistent suitors so I don't think he's in the cards either.  If they don't get Imanaga, I'd handicap the new SP's origin at roughly 75% trade, 20% lesser FA(maybe paired with Woodruff?), 5% Snell/Montgomery.

[CubinNY]

I'm fine with a Jesus Luzardo trade, just not what was speculated before. No one in the top 5. Morel + Wicks + Triantos/Canario. 

[Joj]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

If it works they will have a nice team going into 24’. Won’t be the Dodgers or the Braves, but it doesn’t have to be. Just has to be good enough to win the central. 

Barely treading water as a goal?  Gross.  Doing absolutely nothing means Jed has a genius master plan underway?  And if it all works they'll be slightly above average?  While crying poor to anyone still listening?

99.9% sure that's all garbage.

[Stratos]

Brandon Drury is interesting as a trade.  1 yr left with Angels, can play 3b and 1b.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

I also wonder if Imanaga’s specific salary allows for one path and after that closes it provides Jed some clarity.  Shota is going to, setting aside the posting fee, cost at most about $20M per year, maybe something like Taillon’s $17M on the low end.  Montgomery and Snell are going to be $25-30M.  For a team that has 4-5 other holes to fill, that $5-10M can be significant.  I wouldn't be surprised if Jed is hoping to land Imanaga, and if not pulls the rip cord and abandons the FA SP pool.  For example: 

 

Plan A

Cody Bellinger - $25M

Shota Imanaga - $20M

Robert Stephenson - $10M

Anthony Santander (trade) - $12M

Hunter Harvey (trade) - $3M

Plan B

Cody Bellinger - $25M

Rhys Hoskins - $18M

Robert Stephenson - $10M

David Robertson - $10M

Jesus Luzardo (trade) - $6M

 

Broadly both plans are similar, but whether you utilize money or prospects to address SP impacts which resource you have to address one of the bats and one of the relievers. 

Depends if Ricketts lets Jed go over the cbt line.  I think they have about 50m left under I believe.  Both those plans are over.  Bellinger plus any of the top FA SP and a bat plus pen make them go over.

Bieber projected to make 13m next year.

[Bertz]

6 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Depends if Ricketts lets Jed go over the cbt line.  I think they have about 50m left under I believe.  Both those plans are over.  Bellinger plus any of the top FA SP and a bat plus pen make them go over.

Bieber projected to make 13m next year.

Jed did like a half dozen things last year that most make sense if he was planning on going over this year. 

If Jed doesn't go over this year, he either made some major tactical errors (which isn't likely since Jed's problems are usually being too conservative) or Tom has more or less put the kibosh on ever going over again.  

[Irrelevant Dude]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

If Jed doesn't go over this year, he either made some major tactical errors (which isn't likely since Jed's problems are usually being too conservative) or Tom has more or less put the kibosh on ever going over again.  

We already know that isn't the case, unless everyone from ownership on down is repeatedly lying about their approach to the luxury tax.

[Jason Ross]

No numbers and what is "significant" is subjective.  But probably important to note.

[CubinNY]

39 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

We already know that isn't the case, unless everyone from ownership on down is repeatedly lying about their approach to the luxury tax.

They lie all the time. 

[Bertz]

30 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

No numbers and what is "significant" is subjective.  But probably important to note.

I really wonder how Boras handles conflicts of interest.  Like it seems reasonably likely that Boras holding onto Hoskins to keep Bellinger's market afloat ends up blowing back on Hoskins.  How do you navigate those sorts of dynamics and like what are the ethics there?