Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

They were reported to be sniffing around Imanaga a bit.  Never seen as likely though, so yeah I think net net this doesn't move the needle much

Probably not. Just trying to find some positive spin on the signing. Otherwise it is of no impact or negative impact because now that is one less fall back option.

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Probably not. Just trying to find some positive spin on the signing. Otherwise it is of no impact or negative impact because now that is one less fall back option.

I don't think there has to be a positive or a negative spin. If the Cubs are looking at, as Hottovoy suggested, one starter and two relievers, then Manaea probably wasn't an option for the Cubs. They need someone they can count on to be legitimately good and while I think Manaea has upside, he got dropped from the Giants rotation for cause before he made his changes. The amount of risk he presents as the missing link in our rotation feels too much. Making $14m he's being paid like a starter, and wasn't going to accept a simple swingman job, meaning he couldn't fill one of the reliever spots here. 

[Bertz]

17 minutes ago, JD94 said:

At this point I’m finding it hard to believe the Cubs will field a team better than the 2023 team who also wasn’t good enough to make the playoffs. Better hope some of our prospects are ready fast. Or some big trade happens that we don’t see coming. It doesn’t feel like we get Imanaga. It does feel like we are able to work something out for Bellinger, but even that isn’t close to enough. I’ve kind of been watching from afar since the Dodgers have done literally everything I wish the Cubs would have done. 

I'm not too worried about the position player group.  There are SO many options at 1B/DH, and Mancini/Hosmer/Mervis were SO bad, that it's pretty easy to make up a lot of what went out the door in FA.  And if Bellinger comes back, which I agree looks increasingly likely, it should be a better group than last year (and they were 9th in position player WAR last year).  Not as good of a group as it could have been with like Juan Soto, but it should be a good group.

Similar deal with the bullpen.  Except for a stray Phil Maton mention real early in the offseason, all of the names the team has been connected to are pretty legit.  We also got word that on Counsell's behest Jed is going to put more resources into the pen than he's traditionally comfortable with.  I would expect two relievers of at least Michael Fulmer-eque ability, probably one guy at about that level and another guy significantly above.  Something like e.g. Robert Stephenson and Matt Moore.  Combine that with some of the youths like Little and Palencia being further developed and this will likely end up a much better group than last year.

Where I am nervous is the rotation.  There are ties to Imanaga and Montgomery, but not super strong ones.  Aside from Cease (who does not feel likely) the pitchers on that level on the trade market there's some question how actually available they are.  So it's looking increasingly likely that we're just going to run it back with Stroman?  This is a group with enviable depth that could have used a crown jewel type, and so adding a mid-rotation starter feels like a missed opportunity.  Especially since you'd expect a step back from Steele this year.

There is, no matter what at this point, some significant missed opportunity this winter.  This is certainly not going to be one of the offseasons we drew up in October.  That said if you could promise me I'm not going to be pissed about the SP we wind up, I'd still feel pretty positive about the level of reinforcements we're going to wind up with.

[Rcal10]

Who says no?

Cease and Robert for Horton, PCA, Brown, Ferris and a choice of Alcantara, Shaw, Cassie. Only one of the last 3. 

Then Cubs extend Cease similar to the Glasnow extension, and rework Robert’s contract into a 10 year deal. 

I was listening to Bruce Levine discussing if the Sox should keep Robert or not. He tossed out PCA, Horton and Brown just for Robert. IMO that is a bit too much. So I added Cease and a few other Cub prospects. 

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I don't think there has to be a positive or a negative spin. If the Cubs are looking at, as Hottovoy suggested, one starter and two relievers, then Manaea probably wasn't an option for the Cubs. They need someone they can count on to be legitimately good and while I think Manaea has upside, he got dropped from the Giants rotation for cause before he made his changes. The amount of risk he presents as the missing link in our rotation feels too much. Making $14m he's being paid like a starter, and wasn't going to accept a simple swingman job, meaning he couldn't fill one of the reliever spots here. 

So then you are looking at it as the Cubs more likely than not to either sign one of the top 3 starters on the market or trading for a higher end starter? You are not considering fallback guys like Manaea, Paxton, Clevenger? Maybe even Stroman. I hope you are right. I am just not too sure. 

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

So then you are looking at it as the Cubs more likely than not to either sign one of the top 3 starters on the market or trading for a higher end starter? You are not considering fallback guys like Manaea, Paxton, Clevenger? Maybe even Stroman. I hope you are right. I am just not too sure. 

I think the Cubs are looking at Snell/Montgomery/Imanaga or a trade, yes. I do not think the Cubs are likely to simply add a James Paxton and wipe their hands clean. There's been enough smoke out there, pretty consistently, that the Cubs are going to make at least one, maybe two trades this offseason. With the position player market, especially Bellinger, looking like the smoke is blowing in the Cubs direction eventually the most likely trade scenario feels SP. 

Even if they're forced to go down the fallback area, they'll grab one later. I don't think the lack of options is an issue here. One or two players will be left out in the cold moreso than others, and if the Cubs are going fall back, then it'll be based on value proposition. Losing a few from that group won't matter.

[Rcal10]

28 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think the Cubs are looking at Snell/Montgomery/Imanaga or a trade, yes. I do not think the Cubs are likely to simply add a James Paxton and wipe their hands clean. There's been enough smoke out there, pretty consistently, that the Cubs are going to make at least one, maybe two trades this offseason. With the position player market, especially Bellinger, looking like the smoke is blowing in the Cubs direction eventually the most likely trade scenario feels SP. 

Even if they're forced to go down the fallback area, they'll grab one later. I don't think the lack of options is an issue here. One or two players will be left out in the cold moreso than others, and if the Cubs are going fall back, then it'll be based on value proposition. Losing a few from that group won't matter.

Cool. As I said, I hope you are right. Honestly I don’t see why not either Imanaga or Montgomery. Neither cost a draft pick. Neither is crazy expensive. Both fit in the top end of the rotation. No real excuse, but we are talking about the Cubs and their insistence on “smart spending”. Which might end up the problem. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

If the reports are true that Montgomery is looking to beat Nola's deal he's gonna sit on the market until March. I like the guy a lot but he has nowhere near that level of consistent quality. These Boras clients : facepalm:

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just now, We Got The Whole 9 said:

If the reports are true that Montgomery is looking to beat Nola's deal he's gonna sit on the market until March. I like the guy a lot but he has nowhere near that level of consistent quality. These Boras clients : facepalm:

I kinda feel like I'm taking crazy pills with how a lot of folks have been talking about him.  I said something similar a while back, but the gap between Taillon and Montgomery is like 25% ability and 75% handedness + home ballparks

[LBiittner]

5 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Cool. As I said, I hope you are right. Honestly I don’t see why not either Imanaga or Montgomery. Neither cost a draft pick. Neither is crazy expensive. Both fit in the top end of the rotation. No real excuse, but we are talking about the Cubs and their insistence on “smart spending”. Which might end up the problem. 

Plus, probably 8 -10 other teams with the same thoughts. I am a firm believer cubs will get skunked on anybody worth a tinkers dam.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, LBiittner said:

Plus, probably 8 -10 other teams with the same thoughts. I am a firm believer cubs will get skunked on anybody worth a tinkers dam.

I’m not at that level of negative yet. But I also don’t think it is a a slam dunk they get a few solid players at a reasonable price. I am fully aware that what you are suggesting can happen. I just choose to believe they will get a few good players. Still, this off season. 

[ILMindState]

6 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

This could be looked at 2 ways. First, it takes a possible back up plan out for the Cubs, as some were starting to like Manaea. But this also most likely eliminates a team from one of the top 3 pitchers. I don’t see the Mets doubling up on anyone pitcher. So we are down to the 3 lefties at the top and a fallback of Paxton and maybe Stroman.
Anyone interested in Clevenger? I think his outside activities are hurting him more than his pitching talent. But someone is going to sign him and he wouldn’t shock me to throw 160+ with an era under 4. MOR starter but a real jackass.

If you're gonna sign a shitbag pos human you might as well go in the deep end of the pool and sign Bauer instead of Clevinger. Just to clarify I am not in favor of going the route. 

[Tryptamine]

We're between 5 to 6 weeks until pitchers and catchers report. I know there's technically a lot of FA available, but it really feels increasingly likely that they go in with a bunch of 3rd and 4th tier FA on 1 or 2 year deals and try to sneak into the playoffs.

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

If you're gonna sign a shitbag pos human you might as well go in the deep end of the pool and sign Bauer instead of Clevinger. Just to clarify I am not in favor of going the route. 

Fair point on Clevenger. Not sure he is as bad as Bauer, however. I am sure his biggest issue is not his ability to pitch. 

[Tryptamine]

Even if we ignore the Bauer abuse situation, he has genuinely been disliked by his teammates on basically every team he has ever been a part of. He's a Milton Bradley level clubhouse issue. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

Even if we ignore the Bauer abuse situation, he has genuinely been disliked by his teammates on basically every team he has ever been a part of. He's a Milton Bradley level clubhouse issue. 

Bauer isn’t even considered by anyone IMO. I wasn’t sure about Clevenger. 

[Stratos]

7 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think the Cubs are looking at Snell/Montgomery/Imanaga or a trade, yes. I do not think the Cubs are likely to simply add a James Paxton and wipe their hands clean. There's been enough smoke out there, pretty consistently, that the Cubs are going to make at least one, maybe two trades this offseason. With the position player market, especially Bellinger, looking like the smoke is blowing in the Cubs direction eventually the most likely trade scenario feels SP. 

Even if they're forced to go down the fallback area, they'll grab one later. I don't think the lack of options is an issue here. One or two players will be left out in the cold moreso than others, and if the Cubs are going fall back, then it'll be based on value proposition. Losing a few from that group won't matter.

These are my thoughts also.  I can't see them losing Stroman and being satisfied with a lower tier SP unless they really see something in them.  I think they trade for a SP.

[Rcal10]

57 minutes ago, Stratos said:

These are my thoughts also.  I can't see them losing Stroman and being satisfied with a lower tier SP unless they really see something in them.  I think they trade for a SP.

I think that is the intent of the Cubs FO. The problem is they might not be willing to pay the cost in the way of young talent to bring in a TOR starter any more than they are willing to pay the market rate for a TOR FA starting pitcher. 

[Petrey10]

On 1/5/2024 at 7:46 PM, Rcal10 said:

Bold prediction. By Monday morning the Cubs will have made a move to add someone substantial to the major league roster. Just feeling I have. 

Disappointment pending

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, Petrey10 said:

Disappointment pending

Yep. Not aging well. Took a shot. 

[gocubs218]

Make it stop 

[Jfoley89]

This is fun. Right?  We're all having fun?.

[Derwood]

"Hernandez's $23.5million will only count as three dollars and twenty-seven cents against the cap for reasons"

[WhyCantWeWin]

Feels like the Dodgers have spent more money on total contracts this offseason than the Cubs have spent the last decade combined 

[LBiittner]

8 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

We're between 5 to 6 weeks until pitchers and catchers report. I know there's technically a lot of FA available, but it really feels increasingly likely that they go in with a bunch of 3rd and 4th tier FA on 1 or 2 year deals and try to sneak into the playoffs.

I dislike this