Cubs offseason chit chat...

[We Got The Whole 9]

2 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I don't think Alonso is available for a trade. 

[Tryptamine]

The margin for error continues to shrink. 

[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Also what’s up with Crow-Armstrong and Jordan Wicks being so like casually brought into so many trade conversations? Is it like cold feet or boredom the second things get real for these prospects? It would make more intuitive sense to I if like Shaw and Alcantara weren’t getting the infinite credit that comes with not having to do anything anytime soon

Maybe I’m just being a curmudgeon. I also still don't get what's so scary about Pete Alonso, stunned at how unpopular an option this 50+ HR threat has been all offseason

It's not just a casual toss of names. The Tigers do need some depth and MLB arms, and if we're talking "ready not" Jordan Wicks is. The Tigers, if they're moving Skubal, likely want MLB-now players. I know you're on team "trade Shaw", but Shaw isn't MLB ready now. Pete Crow-Armstrong is MLB ready, fits a decent need (the Tigers have openings in the OF, and have a huge ballpark, an 80 grade defender makes sense for them). And hell, that third big name could be Matt Shaw! Those weren't supposed to be a specific trade, but Tarik Skubal kicks ass when he's on the mound and it's going to hurt if we complete a trade there. PCA, Wicks + should hurt. 

I have no idea how badly the Cubs would want to do that, but if they traded for Skubal, they'd have plenty of money to sign Bellinger for CF, sign Sean Manaea to take the Wicks spot, etc...so it'd be something the Cubs could replace, too. I tried to use names that would conceivably make happen. It's okay if you wouldn't do that trade. I'm not sure what it'd take and it wasn't meant as an iron clad prediction or trade offer, either.

[CubinNY]

5 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Am I crazy for hoping they give Mervis a real chance? 

[Rob]

Michael Brantley just announced his retirement.

I had some very mild interest in him as a possible option for LF/DH. His bat has always been solid -- he just had trouble staying on the field.

I'm guessing he went on the market thinking of himself as a full-time starting caliber player, was finding he was only being offered a salary commensurate with part-time roles, and decided to pull the plug on what was a pretty underrated career.

[We Got The Whole 9]

27 minutes ago, Rob said:

Michael Brantley just announced his retirement.

I had some very mild interest in him as a possible option for LF/DH. His bat has always been solid -- he just had trouble staying on the field.

I'm guessing he went on the market thinking of himself as a full-time starting caliber player, was finding he was only being offered a salary commensurate with part-time roles, and decided to pull the plug on what was a pretty underrated career.

I wanted him since 2015 lol

[Bertz]

How about this one?

Cubs get: Jesus Luzardo, Tanner Scott, and Josh Bell

Marlins get: Morel, Wicks, Alcantara, and a fourth piece of substance (Wesneski, Triantos, Mervis, Palencia, etc. depending on what they're feeling)

Cubs do some one stop shopping and get a frontline SP, closer and other bat for under $30M.  This lets Jed really slowplay the market from here to finish building out the team, while the Marlins get at least two immediate MLB contributors including that that offensive shot in the arm they've desperately been seeking.  They also get out from Bell's contract.

[Rob]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

How about this one?

Cubs get: Jesus Luzardo, Tanner Scott, and Josh Bell

Marlins get: Morel, Wicks, Alcantara, and a fourth piece of substance (Wesneski, Triantos, Mervis, Palencia, etc. depending on what they're feeling)

Cubs do some one stop shopping and get a frontline SP, closer and other bat for under $30M.  This lets Jed really slowplay the market from here to finish building out the team, while the Marlins get at least two immediate MLB contributors including that that offensive shot in the arm they've desperately been seeking.  They also get out from Bell's contract.

Feels ever so slightly light on our end. I see that it's roughly even in a BBTV sense, but I feel like sites like those massively undervalue guys like Luzardo. There'd be a line out the door to trade for him if he was available, and somebody would overpay.

I also think Morel's value is a bit depressed. It's painfully obvious to the rest of the league that for the Cubs he's best utilized as a trade chip. I've no doubt he's been included in every trade discussion we've had this offseason. At a certain point, that does start to lower the perception of the guy.

[CubinNY]

14 minutes ago, Rob said:

Feels ever so slightly light on our end. I see that it's roughly even in a BBTV sense, but I feel like sites like those massively undervalue guys like Luzardo. There'd be a line out the door to trade for him if he was available, and somebody would overpay.

I also think Morel's value is a bit depressed. It's painfully obvious to the rest of the league that for the Cubs he's best utilized as a trade chip. I've no doubt he's been included in every trade discussion we've had this offseason. At a certain point, that does start to lower the perception of the guy.

lol, light on the Cubs end. Josh Bell is washed and expensive, we'd be doing them a massive favor and at the same time not upgrading the position. 

It's a terrible trade for the Cubs. 

Edited January 5, 2024 by CubinNY

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

They also aren't out on Bellinger. Kiermaier is only on a one year, roughly $10m deal. That can easily be converted into a 4th OF'ers role. Rumor is there they're still interested in a DH/OF type and Bellinger fits into that role just fine. It could be they prefer a Joc Pederson type, but Bellinger isn't out in Toronto. I think they're less desperate for a Bellinger with Kiermaier, but he's not a major roadblock either.

I don't see Kiermaier as a 4th OF for them when they only have 1 good OF right now, and he was their starting CF last season.  They could make Bellinger the LF I suppose.

[Jason Ross]

18 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

A few things here:

- I'm less dogmatically "trade Shaw" and more "obvious SNTS is obvious." Which isn't to say he's bad or this or that, just that SNTS is obviously influencing how this player is perceived by the home crowd

- The Shaw being ready or not ready thing is a maybe great example of the passive bonus to be shiny. One minute we're talking about this guy as The Future of 3B probably in 2024, but in the next trade speculation comes up and the language around how quick he can move changes. It all just seems like a dance of words to keep the less immediate prospects safe-r/vacuum sealed in their original packaging

- The obvious thing to do if the Tigers are asking for Crow-Armstrong and Wicks is just say no. Cubs online fandom avoids even talking about players with the biggest asks, almost certainly the Cubs wouldn't do it, so why make this random exception? Just go sign Blake Snell if you're willing to go even further more or less unprompted

- Just say it out loud and see how unrealistic this sounds: the Cubs trade both Jordan Wicks and Pete Crow-Armstrong to get older, more expensive, and much more injured in the rotation

 

Perhaps for you. I'm not very sure I'd agree. Tarik Skubal is really that good, IMO. And while I think Wicks is a nice arm, and while I think Pete Crow-Armstrong has significant upside, I know Skubal is a really good MLB pitcher (28th in fWAR last two seasons despite time missed, for example, 3rd in xFIP with arms over 190 IP). PCA and Wicks are unlikely to both hit their 90% outcomes. Skubal already has. That's not saying I'm gung-ho on anything, only that the bolded is subjective, not objective. 

I also think the last sentence you wrote is highly subjective. We can say that a few ways. "Cubs trade two unproven players for a controllable, 27 year old SP who has the third lowest xFIP over the last two seasons" and make it sound way differently. Both are true, but add in subjective things to make it highly biased. I'm going to avoid saying either, because both are true.

Again, I really haven't thought about it, and I'm not super interested in getting too deep into what if's here, trade packages and tangents. What I know is this: Tarik Skubal is really, really horsefeathers good and any trade that would end up with him would hurt. But you'd also be getting a really good player back and that's what those cost. That was the original point of the post, that the Cubs and the Tigers could find common ground somewhere and why the Tigers would be interested at all, not the minutia of a PCA or Matt Shaw trade or whatever.

[Rob]

16 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

lol, light on the Cubs end. Josh Bell is washed and expensive, we'd be doing them a massive favor and at the same time not upgrading the position. 

It's a terrible trade for the Cubs. 

Per Baseball Savant, Josh Bell's wOBA was .323 last season (.345 xwOBA). Cody Bellinger's wOBA was .370 last season (.327 xwOBA).

In other words, based on their batted ball metrics last season, Cody Bellinger's stat line should have looked an awful lot like the "washed" Josh Bell's actual line. And Bell's line should have been better. Yes, Bellinger is the better player due to his defense and baserunning, but in all likelihood we aren't talking about drastically different bats here.

Now, I'm not out here banging the drum for Josh Bell. But if his bat recovers to where we'd expect, he'd be worth near the value of his contract, but not the full value. It's not like taking him on is the equivalent of taking on a massive dead-money contract, such as Strasburg. It's probably more like $6-8M. You don't get Luzardo for peanuts by taking that off their hands.

[CubinNY]

7 minutes ago, Rob said:

Per Baseball Savant, Josh Bell's wOBA was .323 last season (.345 xwOBA). Cody Bellinger's wOBA was .370 last season (.327 xwOBA).

In other words, based on their batted ball metrics last season, Cody Bellinger's stat line should have looked an awful lot like the "washed" Josh Bell's actual line. And Bell's line should have been better. Yes, Bellinger is the better player due to his defense and baserunning, but in all likelihood we aren't talking about drastically different bats here.

Now, I'm not out here banging the drum for Josh Bell. But if his bat recovers to where we'd expect, he'd be worth near the value of his contract, but not the full value. It's not like taking him on is the equivalent of taking on a massive dead-money contract, such as Strasburg. It's probably more like $6-8M. You don't get Luzardo for peanuts by taking that off their hands.

should's back is breaking in that paragraph

[Rob]

4 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

should's back is breaking in that paragraph

Yeah, because in the year of our lord two thousand and twenty three, baseball analytics have never touched on predicative stats. We're all still just out here counting RBIs and pitcher Wins.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 minutes ago, Rob said:

Per Baseball Savant, Josh Bell's wOBA was .323 last season (.345 xwOBA). Cody Bellinger's wOBA was .370 last season (.327 xwOBA).

In other words, based on their batted ball metrics last season, Cody Bellinger's stat line should have looked an awful lot like the "washed" Josh Bell's actual line. And Bell's line should have been better. Yes, Bellinger is the better player due to his defense and baserunning, but in all likelihood we aren't talking about drastically different bats here.

They're at opposite ends of the spectrum for hitting the ball on the ground and sprint speed, so that's not entirely unexpected.  That's part of why Bell underperforms his xwOBA every year while for his career Bellinger is at or slightly exceeding his xwOBA.

That said, I don't mind Bell as a target, I kinda am curious if there's a Scott + Bell trade to be had without Luzardo since that may be a sweet spot in terms of making a realistic deal happen.  That probably can't happen without Bellinger or a trade lined up for the primary bat, though.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Rob said:

Feels ever so slightly light on our end. I see that it's roughly even in a BBTV sense, but I feel like sites like those massively undervalue guys like Luzardo. There'd be a line out the door to trade for him if he was available, and somebody would overpay.

I also think Morel's value is a bit depressed. It's painfully obvious to the rest of the league that for the Cubs he's best utilized as a trade chip. I've no doubt he's been included in every trade discussion we've had this offseason. At a certain point, that does start to lower the perception of the guy.

Why is it obvious that Morel is strictly a trade chip? I haven’t seen his names mention in any trade proposals from the Cubs. In fact, I haven’t seen any trade proposal from the  ins with anyone mentioned. If anything, weeks ago when Jed got upset with a reporter it was because that reporter suggested Morel was being discussed and Jed said that wasn’t true. 

[Jason Ross]

Giants and Mariners just made a trade. Robbie Ray goes to the Giants for Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSclafini. 

That likely opens them back up for Bellinger.

[Bertz]

Not sure this does anything major as far as Cubs implications go.  The money, for 2024 at least, is roughly a wash.  Giants still need a SP as Ray will be out most of the year.  Probably makes them slightly more likely for Bellinger/Chapman, and a lot more likely for Hoskins or other RHH 1B/DH types?

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Jerry has broken containment and is on a trading bender

 

[Bertz]

6 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Jerry has broken containment and is on a trading bender

 

We all should have guessed this would happen this weekend, the Mariners fan half of Cespedes BBQ posted this yesterday 

 

 

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Giants and Mariners just made a trade. Robbie Ray goes to the Giants for Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSclafini. 

That likely opens them back up for Bellinger.

Looks like Giants probably have about 30m in payroll space left if they spend the same as last year (about 210m).  So they'd likely have room for either 1 big FA SP or big FA bat like Bellinger.

I think if it comes down to Giants vs Cubs for Bellinger then we have the edge if offers are equal given he liked Chicago and hit well there.  Giants don't play in a good hitting park for LHB, plus the Cali income taxes factor.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

Not sure this does anything major as far as Cubs implications go.  The money, for 2024 at least, is roughly a wash.  Giants still need a SP as Ray will be out most of the year.  Probably makes them slightly more likely for Bellinger/Chapman, and a lot more likely for Hoskins or other RHH 1B/DH types?

 

I could see them going a bit cheaper than Bellinger/Chapman and grabbing a so-so position guy like Hoskins or Joc Pederson plus a FA MORP.

[Stratos]

Who could be in on Chapman??

Tigers, Jays, AZ, Phillies but probably not, Yanks but probably not

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Giants and Mariners just made a trade. Robbie Ray goes to the Giants for Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSclafini. 

That likely opens them back up for Bellinger.

Giants signed Lee, I forgot about that.  Might be out on Bellinger then.

[ILMindState]