Cubs offseason chit chat...

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 hour ago, Bull said:

I'll see your TINSTAPP and raise you a TOOTBLAN.

PCA is a nincompoop.

PCA is a 21 year old that made some mistakes 

[Rcal10]

40 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Well sure, on the hierarchy of needs having that 2nd bat falls beneath having a playoff series SP.  But there's no sign those are mutually exclusive that I can see.  You can still do the above and sign Imanaga or Montgomery or trade for Bieber or Cease or maybe a Marlins or Mariners SP.

They could. But using PCA to get that pitcher in a trade gets you a better pitcher with more time to control him than using someone like Alcantara or Brown or other minor league talent. I think that is the point when people talk about dealing PCA, if they sign Bellinger. 

[NorthsideAvenger]

2 hours ago, Bull said:

I'll see your TINSTAPP and raise you a TOOTBLAN.

PCA is a nincompoop.

To be fair, most-if not all---MLB players are nincompoop. 

[squally1313]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Well sure, on the hierarchy of needs having that 2nd bat falls beneath having a playoff series SP.  But there's no sign those are mutually exclusive that I can see.  You can still do the above and sign Imanaga or Montgomery or trade for Bieber or Cease or maybe a Marlins or Mariners SP.

Do you think there's enough money in the budget for a Bellinger/Hoskins/Montgomery offseason? Per FG projections, that's adding $59m in salary next year from those three. Feel like that's already in the upper limits of where we think they're willing to spend, and that's with no other signings (bullpen, etc). Trades for Bieber/Cease/etc are doable but you're pulling your top trade pieces off the table. Do we want PCA as the fourth outfielder for two years if it means that Horton has to go to get a good enough pitcher?

[Jfoley89]

2 hours ago, Bull said:

I'll see your TINSTAPP and raise you a TOOTBLAN.

PCA is a nincompoop.

Thank you for this Google search.  I'm still laughing

[Irrelevant Dude]

42 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Do we want PCA as the fourth outfielder for two years if it means that Horton has to go to get a good enough pitcher?

Absolutely not.  If the Cubs aren't going to be willing to spend on a top of rotation starter (and there are no indications they will ever be willing to pay a #1 starter in free agency), then they need to hit on a guy like Horton from their own system.  He is the most untouchable guy they have right now.

[LBiittner]

Just asking because I don't have a clue, if bellinger as a cfer is worth 25-27million per, how much is a good 1B currently worth?

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Just asking because I don't have a clue, if bellinger as a cfer is worth 25-27million per, how much is a good 1B currently worth?

I would say someone you plan on playing first base 125+ games who is "good" would also be worth $25m or so a season. With that said, I think what makes a good 1b and a good CF are different, as well, and where I'd have some questions is just how good of a bat Cody Bellinger would have going forward because I think a good 1b requires more of the bat than a good CF.

[Rcal10]

10 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Just asking because I don't have a clue, if bellinger as a cfer is worth 25-27million per, how much is a good 1B currently worth?

Freeman signed a 6 year $162M deal with the Dodgers. He is a much better offensive player than Bellinger. Just look at his OPS+ the last 8 years. I would think if Bellinger was signed strictly to play 1st base we would be talking about something like 6/$132? 

[Bertz]

4 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Just asking because I don't have a clue, if bellinger as a cfer is worth 25-27million per, how much is a good 1B currently worth?

The line for a first division starter at 1B is being approximately 20% better than average on offense (a 120 wRC+ and an .800ish OPS).  That is IMO a slightly rosey but not totally unreasonable expectation for Bellinger's offense moving forward.

Bellinger is a good defender at 1B and a good baserunner and for a free agent quite young.  But even all of that being considered as purely a 1B Bellinger would maybe get like 4 years and $80M?  That's why I'm out on Bellinger on a traditional contract.  There's value in his flexibility and being able to man the OF but not close to $100M IMO.  Give me Bellinger on a short term deal though and I'm very onboard.

[squally1313]

5 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Just asking because I don't have a clue, if bellinger as a cfer is worth 25-27million per, how much is a good 1B currently worth?

Freeman got 6/162 (25/year) going into his age 32 season and coming off fWARs of 4.4, 3.2 in covid year, and 4.9.

Matt Olson got 8/168 (21/year) going into his age 28 season and coming off fWARs of 4.1, 0.6 in covid year, and 5.0. 

Both of those deals have looked really good, generally from an increased quality in play. Last year there weren't any primary 1Bs out there under 30 or nearly as good. Rizzo (33) got 2/40 coming off a 2.5 year, Abreu (36) got 3/58 coming off a 3.8 year. 

You would definitely say that Freeman and Olson are worth more than their contracts, but that's because they are 6-7 WAR players based on their 2023 performance, with wOBAs 40+ points higher than what Bellinger put up in 2023. 

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Freeman got 6/162 (25/year) going into his age 32 season and coming off fWARs of 4.4, 3.2 in covid year, and 4.9.

Matt Olson got 8/168 (21/year) going into his age 28 season and coming off fWARs of 4.1, 0.6 in covid year, and 5.0. 

Both of those deals have looked really good, generally from an increased quality in play. Last year there weren't any primary 1Bs out there under 30 or nearly as good. Rizzo (33) got 2/40 coming off a 2.5 year, Abreu (36) got 3/58 coming off a 3.8 year. 

You would definitely say that Freeman and Olson are worth more than their contracts, but that's because they are 6-7 WAR players based on their 2023 performance, with wOBAs 40+ points higher than what Bellinger put up in 2023. 

I agree with that you are saying, but your math is off on Freemen. He is getting an annual if $27M if he is getting 6/$162. Or did the Sosgers do some funny math with him too? 

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

I agree with that you are saying, but your math is off on Freemen. He is getting an annual if $27M if he is getting 6/$162. Or did the Sosgers do some funny math with him too? 

Good call, was just reading off Fangraphs for AAV. Digging a little deeper, he deferred $57m interest free until 2028-2040, which reduced the present value to $148m, so it's technically like $24.7m for most purposes. 

[Rob]

4 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Just asking because I don't have a clue, if bellinger as a cfer is worth 25-27million per, how much is a good 1B currently worth?

The defensive metrics on Bellinger are mixed.

With respect to his time in CF, DRS saw him above average until 2021, and average to slightly below since then. UZR has him floating around average. The statcast metrics have him pretty solidly above average. With respect to his time at 1B, DRS sees him as slightly above average, UZR sees him as average, and the statcast stats see him as average.

So just to make this easy on ourselves, let's call him both an average CF and an average 1B for the length of the contract. If that were the case, the positional adjustment would see him as worth approximately 15 runs more per full season as a centerfielder than a 1B. In theory, we should try to peg those runs to the run environment, but since this is a lazy projections, let's just call that approximately 1.5 wins per season.

The cost of a win isn't exactly linear. But at roughly $8M per win in free agency last I checked, Bellinger would be worth approximately $12M less per season if we were playing him as a 1B than if he were a CF.

[Tryptamine]

34 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Just asking because I don't have a clue, if bellinger as a cfer is worth 25-27million per, how much is a good 1B currently worth?

Well if you look at Freeeman for an example,  then an elite 1B is 27M annually.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

Do you think there's enough money in the budget for a Bellinger/Hoskins/Montgomery offseason? Per FG projections, that's adding $59m in salary next year from those three. Feel like that's already in the upper limits of where we think they're willing to spend, and that's with no other signings (bullpen, etc). Trades for Bieber/Cease/etc are doable but you're pulling your top trade pieces off the table. Do we want PCA as the fourth outfielder for two years if it means that Horton has to go to get a good enough pitcher?

Yes, i think  there’s absolutely money for that permutation, and I don’t think it’s true that it’s either that or your best trade assets out there door to get a SP.

[LBiittner]

Thank you for your responses.

[Backtobanks]

4 hours ago, CubinNY said:

Management of most MLB teams prefers cheap labor. 

Especially management of mediocre and bad teams.

 

[squally1313]

25 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Yes, i think  there’s absolutely money for that permutation, and I don’t think it’s true that it’s either that or your best trade assets out there door to get a SP.

You're more optimistic than I am. Let's hope so. 

[Tryptamine]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

You're more optimistic than I am. Let's hope so. 

I'm at the point where I'd put the odds on likeliest scenario being that they go into 2024 as an equal or worse team than they finished 2023. There's far too many things that would have to go just right for me to realistically believe they're going to put together a team projected for 90 wins, like I think most of us thought was imminent after the Counsell signing. If they don't end up snagging Bellinger, then things are going to start getting real dark around here.

[Backtobanks]

I don't understand all of this discussion about Bellinger and his worth as a 1B.  I don't think anyone has suggested that we go after Bellinger to play 1B.  If we want a 1B, there are cheaper options available.  Bellinger is being sought as a CF and his asking price is based on playing CF.  Of course, he is probably the only FA versatile enough to excel offensively and defensively at two prime positions.

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

I don't understand all of this discussion about Bellinger and his worth as a 1B.  I don't think anyone has suggested that we go after Bellinger to play 1B.  If we want a 1B, there are cheaper options available.  Bellinger is being sought as a CF and his asking price is based on playing CF.  Of course, he is probably the only FA versatile enough to excel offensively and defensively at two prime positions.

Well, I think the discourse around that is tied directly to Pete Crow-Armstrong as well. As long as the Cubs still have PCA in the system and are reportedly pursuing Bellinger, the discussion of Bellinger as a 1b is important. It's likely that the Cubs would move Bellinger to 1b for PCA in the event they're both here, as soon as June. PCA is nearly ready now, and regardless of how high you are on his bat, his defense and speed will carry the day for him in almost any situation to being somewhat useful. 

Maybe this would change with a PCA trade, but that doesn't appear to be on the horizon. The Cubs have spoken highly of "not blocking" prospects and have yet to make a single trade of consequence of a prospect, so while nothing is non-zero, it doesn't seem likely they'll go ahead and trade their industry consensus-top prospect who's quite close to MLB ready. 

[Tryptamine]

3 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

I don't understand all of this discussion about Bellinger and his worth as a 1B.  I don't think anyone has suggested that we go after Bellinger to play 1B.  If we want a 1B, there are cheaper options available.  Bellinger is being sought as a CF and his asking price is based on playing CF.  Of course, he is probably the only FA versatile enough to excel offensively and defensively at two prime positions.

It's talked about because many of us feel that keeping PCA around if you sign Bellinger is counter productive. You don't give Bellinger starting CFer money only to move him to 1B where you could get equal talent for a lot less money on the open market. 

[Bertz]

 

My interest would be highly dependent on the rest of the offseason around him, but Manaea is going to be a savvy pickup for someone.  SFG did a lot to get him back on track including this sweeper and adding back some velo.

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, Bertz said:

 

My interest would be highly dependent on the rest of the offseason around him, but Manaea is going to be a savvy pickup for someone.  SFG did a lot to get him back on track including this sweeper and adding back some velo.

Was just thinking about this Zumach post. There's many Cub teams and many scenarios where I'd be into Manaea, I just don't think this Cubs team is the Cub team he's a good fit for. He just hasn't been particularly great over his last two seasons, and I just don't think the Cubs are in the position to give him the shot he probably thinks he deserves. The Cubs would likely have to jettison Wicks in a trade for me to have any real interest in Manaea and it feels unlikely that kind of a trade is being discussed at this time (especially considering that the names being talked about seem to include Brown and Wesneski which already strike at our pitching depth). 

The Cubs feel too good to be taking a risk on Manaea in the rotation spot they actually have open (which is, for all intents and purposes, is an opening for what will become the second best pitcher in the rotation). And he probably should be able to find some team willing to give him a real chance to win a rotational spot Opening Day. So while I respect the hell out of Zumach, I think he's getting the kind of love he probably deserves from Cubdom right now.