Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Backtobanks]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

It isn’t so much how many years I would go or even how many Jed is comfortable going. It is what would be needed for Bellinger. I think if you could get him for 7/$182 AND they did plan on dealing PCA to upgrade elsewhere, this is something I would consider. Yes, might be a few years more than is comfortable, but just trying to be realistic with what the market might be for him. 

Jed is just going have to accept the facts that:

1. FAs cost more than they should and want more years than he's comfortable with, 

2. To get quality players in trades, you're going to have to give up better prospects.

The longer he waits, the more likely other teams will decide to get busy on Hoskins, Clase, Bieber, Cease, Bellinger, Chapman, Naylor, Alonso, etc.

Edited December 22, 2023 by Backtobanks

[chopsx9]

5 hours ago, Petrey10 said:

I honestly hope the dodgers win it all. 

horsefeathers that. I hope they make it to the next 10 WS and lose them all.

[UMFan83]

14 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

Jed is just going have to accept the facts that:

1. FAs cost more than they should and want more years than he's comfortable with, 

2. To get quality players in trades, you're going to have to give up better prospects.

The longer he waits, the more likely other teams will decide to get busy on Hoskins, Clase, Bieber, Cease, Bellinger, Chapman, Naylor, Alonso, etc.

To quote Andrew Friedman back in 2016: "If you're always rational about every free agent, you will finish third on every free agent."

[LBiittner]

2 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Speaking as both a Kentuckian and someone who was just at Trace yesterday...EH Taylor is a fine choice (sadly, missed their recent EH Taylor drop by one day. Yesterday was a Blanton's day...which...is good but I'd rather the Taylor, myself).

I've got my wife on board with doing the bourbon trail at some point next summer or early in the fall. I'm excited but didn't expect the quantity limit as well as the 90 days between purchases. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

51 minutes ago, Layoutman said:

there is a core in place

Dansby, Suzuki, Happ, Hoerner?

As far as cores go, that one leaves a lot to be desired.

[LBiittner]

2 hours ago, JHBulls said:

I once found out on a forum that uromysitisis isn't a real thing. 

 

 

 

 

I say it is lol. Jerry would never make horsefeathers up! George on the other hand

[Transmogrified Tiger]

35 players were worth 4.5 fWAR or more last year. The Cubs had 3 of them(Steele, Swanson, Hoerner), all were under 30 and all are under team control for 3 (or more) seasons.  They didn't have a Top 5 pitcher or Top 10 hitter, but as far as nuclei go it's not bad.

[Illiterate Scholar]

7 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Dansby, Suzuki, Happ, Hoerner?

As far as cores go, that one leaves a lot to be desired.

Those 4 averaged like 4 war a piece last year. Some of the comments I've seen here and other places, I think there's a decent amount of Cubs fans that underrate the parts this team has in place. No, it's not the 1-3 of the Dodgers' order, but this is a legitimately good starting point.

[LBiittner]

2 hours ago, JBears79 said:

Can you do my taxes for me this year too

With my mathematic capabilities, you'd probably end up in the 37% bracket.

[Backtobanks]

8 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

35 players were worth 4.5 fWAR or more last year. The Cubs had 3 of them(Steele, Swanson, Hoerner), all were under 30 and all are under team control for 3 (or more) seasons.  They didn't have a Top 5 pitcher or Top 10 hitter, but as far as nuclei go it's not bad.

I understand the value of defense, but we need some offensive players in that 4,5 fWAR range.

Edited December 22, 2023 by Backtobanks

[Backtobanks]

Christmas wish list:

1. Sign Bellinger

2. Trade Morel + Wesneski + Triantos for Cease + Moncada

3. Trade PCA + Brown + Mervis for Naylor + Bieber + Clase

[Transmogrified Tiger]

5 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

I understand the value of defense, but we need some offensive players in that 4,5 fWAR range.

Tough to tell for certain, but Seiya probably would've done that last year without the oblique injury.  Even with that plaguing him in the first half he was a Top 25 hitter in the game.

[Jason Ross]

28 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

I've got my wife on board with doing the bourbon trail at some point next summer or early in the fall. I'm excited but didn't expect the quantity limit as well as the 90 days between purchases. 

Yeah, real bummer with how Trace does things. But it's only 90 days between purchases on specific brands. So if they drop Blantons on Thursday and Taylor Friday, you can get one of each. The rub is getting the right days! Each distillery has a few different rules. Make sure if you're doing Trace that you get tickets early. It's free but they fill up (so people can get drops). Sadly Turkey probably won't be up and running yet...they're recovering from a fire. Loved Woodford, really good tour.

[LBiittner]

3 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Yeah, real bummer with how Trace does things. But it's only 90 days between purchases on specific brands. So if they drop Blantons on Thursday and Taylor Friday, you can get one of each. The rub is getting the right days! Each distillery has a few different rules. Make sure if you're doing Trace that you get tickets early. It's free but they fill up (so people can get drops). Sadly Turkey probably won't be up and running yet...they're recovering from a fire. Loved Woodford, really good tour.

Thanks for sharing your experience 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, LBiittner said:

Thanks for sharing your experience 

Positives of living in Lexington: Bourbon is readily available.

Negatives of living in Lexington: Kentucky is still Kentucky.

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, CubinNY said:

the front office is implementing the owners' plan. They ain't goin' nowhere. 

How do you know this?  How do you know that Ricketts doesn't set a max payroll and largely leaves it up to Jed to figure out how to maximize the wins with that money?  That's also exactly what they've said is how it happens.

I think if there's going to be major spending on a player Jed and the FO go over it with a fine-toothed comb to make sure it's the best move for them, and then take all that data/evidence and show it to Tom to get his final ok on spending that money.  I think he generally trusts Jed to do his job.  Tom's not a baseball guy, WTF does he know about winning ballgames?

IMO it's all data-driven.  They've worked out the math and in their analysis they conclude that these huge 300/12 type deals don't produce as many wins for the team as e.g. 2 separate 150/6 deals.  We don't really know what that math is, but I think they probably have a good argument.

I wouldn't call these mega-contracts, but just as an example if the Cubs could have cut bait on Heyward and Lester halfway through their contracts we would have been much better off.  The likelihood that a player on a mega-contract outperforms that contract is close to zero.  The best they can do is live up to it, and that doesn't happen often.

 

[Stratos]

22 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

Christmas wish list:

1. Sign Bellinger

2. Trade Morel + Wesneski + Triantos for Cease + Moncada

3. Trade PCA + Brown + Mervis for Naylor + Bieber + Clase

I wouldn't do the 3rd one.

[Stratos]

43 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Dansby, Suzuki, Happ, Hoerner?

As far as cores go, that one leaves a lot to be desired.

I think the whole idea of needing a "core" is overblown.

[Bertz]

Regarding the core, I'll say too I think there is a lot to be said for the weak link theory of team building. We saw with the last group how teams with even the most fearsome middle of the order can be busts when you have gaping holes like Almora and Heyward.  Personally I am a believer that depth wins the regular season and stars win in October 

Jed came into this winter in a bit of an awkward spot.  $70Mish and 6-7 holes on the roster gives you four options:

- Fill 1-2 spots with stars, 2-3 spots solidly, and 2-3 hope you can make it work internally

- Fill all (or maybe all but one) of those spots solidly

- Blow the farm up trying to do both of the above

- Just sort of putz around and burn a year

I think most of us, myself included, wanted door #1.  Much of the fanbase is freaking out and thinks Jed's doing #4 but I'm not going out on a limb here when I think it's pretty clearly going to be #2 or pretty close to it by the time we hit ST.

[Backtobanks]

2 hours ago, Stratos said:

I wouldn't do the 3rd one.

Naylor, Hoerner, Swanson, Moncada, Happ, Bellinger, Suzuki, Gomes/Amaya looks like a solid core of players for quite a few years age wise (except for Gomes).

A rotation of Cease, Steele, Taillon, Bieber, Hendricks, Assad, Wicks and a bullpen of Smyly, Cuas, Merryweather, Alzolay, Clase, Thompson, Leiter, etc.

DH - Wisdom, Tauchman, Madrigal

 

[Rcal10]

3 hours ago, Backtobanks said:

Jed is just going have to accept the facts that:

1. FAs cost more than they should and want more years than he's comfortable with, 

2. To get quality players in trades, you're going to have to give up better prospects.

The longer he waits, the more likely other teams will decide to get busy on Hoskins, Clase, Bieber, Cease, Bellinger, Chapman, Naylor, Alonso, etc.

This is kind of my views. Sure, most free agents signed eventually end their careers hindering the team they are on for the last year or two of a deal. Sure, guys being traded shouldn’t cost as much as some do, but in order to get the players you want you have to overpay. My fear is Jed will stick to his beliefs and therefore not get much done. Just look at the couple of trades so far. Soto cost more than people thought. So did Glasnow when you realize they also took on another salary for a 4th outfielder. I agree with what people are suggesting the Cubs should trade to get guys. I know it sounds right. But I am not sure it is. Which may be why Jed hasn’t made a deal yet. As far as free agents go I am not comfortable with giving any of the top 3 a 6yr $150+ deal. And maybe Jed isn’t either. But someone will. So the Cubs don’t get any of those guys. I don’t want to give Bellinger any more than something like 6/$150-$160, or Chapman 4/$92M. But again, if Jed doesn’t someone else will. If this FO sticks to what a guy is really worth and won’t sign him for more than that, they won’t sign many. If they stick to only trading equal value of young talent for a proven talent they won’t make many trades. We can all say good for them to not overpay. But what we will be watching this year is a high 70’s to low 80’s win team unless they extend beyond their comfort to acquire additional talent. 

[LBiittner]

Bowden says dodgers are looking into closer clase

[Tryptamine]

What must it be like to have a gm who identifies a need,  decides on a guy who fills that need then does what is needed to land him instead of hoping talent somehow falls into their hands.

[ToolDRT]

31 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Ngl Clase to the Dodgers would be hysterical. What’s every other teams’ excuse then? I guess if a player isn’t overpaidz but available then the algorithm goes to actually not that good?

Dodgers seem to be best at wanting a player and getting him right now. I feel like Theo seemed to have that trait as well. Jed? No. 

[LBiittner]

Padres ended up grabbing patino off waivers today from whitesox. I asked yesterday if he might be a jed pickup but padres got him before cubs had a chance. Former top 100 prospect.