Cubs offseason chit chat...

[KCCub]

I’m hoping for a move that we aren’t expecting 

[CubinNY]

3 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I'm with you, and I do think they did aggressively pursue Ohtani at least, and at a minimum pursued the contours of a Soto trade.  I know some folks are taking the waning belief Ohtani will sign as an indicator they offered him like 7/400 as a last offer or worse didn't try at all, but that is not the impression I've gotten from combing the Cubs internet.  And this also might be just a coping mechanism, but I also try to remember that everyone wants these guys and the other parties involved have agency, so there is some element that is beyond their control.  If Ohtani thinks Wrigley is a dump or Chicago is too cold or too long a flight or w/e, and Preller says 'We need pitching but I'm not a big fan of Wicks or Assad/Wesneski', then no amount of aggression or even foolhardy levels of pursuit is going to do it.

 

Ohtani doesn't bother me that much because he's the driver. He's going to go where he wants to go. The thing that does bother me is if the Cubs were out early due to preference and they continue to make like they are still all in. When Counsell said he didn't talk to Ohtani, that is a clear sign they are not seriously being considered by him.  I'm also not that bothered by Soto because the obvious fit is not there and the cost in terms of prospects is going to require some amount of pain. But I understand people who people can be bothered by it. 

I said before, I don't care how it happens, but the Cubs need a front-of-the-rotation starter, high-leverage bullpen help, and slugging preferably LH. The division is down, but the Reds are getting serious and the Cardinals and Brewers are still there. They need to fill holes. 

[WhyCantWeWin]

5 minutes ago, KCCub said:

I’m hoping for a move that we aren’t expecting 

That would be epic, imagine getting all three. I'd be happy with that for an offseason 

[17 Seconds]

Just now, WhyCantWeWin said:

That would be epic, imagine getting all three. I'd be happy with that for an offseason 

that would be a pretty weak offseason. bieber and clase might not even be good anymore

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

That would be epic, imagine getting all three. I'd be happy with that for an offseason 

At the prospect cost it would require to get all three of those players, can we just ask for Ramirez instead and then send Yamamoto a blank check?

[WhyCantWeWin]

Just now, 17 Seconds said:

that would be a pretty weak offseason. bieber and clase might not even be good anymore

Both are coming off down years but their overall body of work is impressive. But yeah a lot of red flags 

[WhyCantWeWin]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

At the prospect cost it would require to get all three of those players, can we just ask for Ramirez instead and then send Yamamoto a blank check?

Doesn't ramirez have a ntc? I'd be ok moving any player for him but I feel like he doesn't ever want to leave Cleveland. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

58 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

what do you think the rest of the offseason looks like? in terms of scale, i mean

In an offseason without Ohtani, my expectation is that they'll exceed the luxury tax but probably more in the 15-20 million overage, which would mean they add 65-70M in AAV.  I think they'll probably add 3 pitchers and 2-3 position players.  I think SP is probably the key decision in terms of the exact shape of the other moves.  If it's Glasnow I bet they try for another SP to hedge his injury risk, and it's possible then the 2nd SP is a Morel-based trade.  In that permutation then the 3rd position player is probably a low dollar bat, hopefully better caliber than Rios last year but also probably not a 10M+ AAV like JD Martinez.  If they don't get a 2nd SP then I think they probably add a 2nd RP but more in the Robertson/Boxberger range.  So a couple different permutations of what this could look like:

Glasnow/Imanaga/Robertson on the mound, Hoskins/Polanco at the plate

Bieber/Stephenson/Fujinami on the mound, Bellinger/Belt at the plate

Glasnow/Cabera/Miller on the mound, Hoskins/Naylor/Gallo at the plate

I can also see some plan B/C permutations where they put money they don't have a better home for into Woodruff.

[Bertz]

8 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

that would be a pretty weak offseason. bieber and clase might not even be good anymore

It's only ~25M in salary, so you'd still be able to do e.g. Glasnow and Hoskins on top of that

[We Got The Whole 9]

Screw Bieber. He's fine but he's a MORP now. I still like Clase. He keeps the ball on the ground and in the yard (11 HR in 238 IP!) and he still averages 99. He'd be expensive AF though. He is absolutely dirt cheap re the contract. His contract is ridiculous - 3/12 against the LT and 2/20 in options for 27-28.

[Cuzi]

9 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Doesn't ramirez have a ntc? I'd be ok moving any player for him but I feel like he doesn't ever want to leave Cleveland. 

Yes. He signed an extremely undervalue contract and asked for a NTC because he only wanted/wants to play in Cleveland. His agent has publicly said he advised Ramirez not to sign that contract and Ramirez signed it anyway. Why his name keeps being brought up as a possible trade target is beyond me.

Edited December 7, 2023 by Cuzi

[Jason Ross]

24 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I'm with you, and I do think they did aggressively pursue Ohtani at least, and at a minimum pursued the contours of a Soto trade.  I know some folks are taking the waning belief Ohtani will sign as an indicator they offered him like 7/400 as a last offer or worse didn't try at all, but that is not the impression I've gotten from combing the Cubs internet.  And this also might be just a coping mechanism, but I also try to remember that everyone wants these guys and the other parties involved have agency, so there is some element that is beyond their control.  If Ohtani thinks Wrigley is a dump or Chicago is too cold or too long a flight or w/e, and Preller says 'We need pitching but I'm not a big fan of Wicks or Assad/Wesneski', then no amount of aggression or even foolhardy levels of pursuit is going to do it.

 

Yeah, I agree with that. There's always agency on all parties. I do think there are ways around agency and ways you can brute force yourself into situations, and I think my biggest issue with the Cubs is that I just don't know if they have the stomach to throw their weight around. I don't expect them to go all Texas Rangers, but the Rangers brute forced their way into Seager, Seimien, DeGrom...and while the back end of those might not always be pretty, and we can question whether brute forcing all of those were good ideas, I'd like to see the Cubs, just once, decide they had to have a guy and really brute force their way into them. Be judicious, be smart, but also...be a big market. From an outside perspective, the Cubs seem to really have hard limits. Maybe it's because they haven't determined what that player is. When it comes to Ohtani, if this wasn't the one to brute force (and while I do believe they gave an earnest account, I'm not sure if they brute forced it) then I do struggle to wonder who that is. When you're big game hunting, unless you're in a unique situation, brute force is almost necessary. 

I'll be happy to be wrong on this some time. At least, I hope I'm wrong.

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Yes. He signed an extremely undervalue contract and asked for a NTC because he only wanted/wants to play in Cleveland. Why his name keeps being brought up as a possible trade target is beyond me.

Fair points, though they're coming off their first losing season in a while and if he's told the alternative is trading their best pen guy, second best offensive guy, and potentially their best starter, he might change his tune a little bit. 

Edit: Forgot this: 

 

Edited December 7, 2023 by squally1313

[UMFan83]

57 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

This might be just my coping mechanism at not getting our version of a nut-shelling squirrel, but I'm getting the impression that they have a higher view of the current roster and baseline they're working from than a lot of us do. There's some logic for that since the team's underlying performance was very good, and some of the ways they failed to meet it have been addressed or there's still plenty of opportunity to(rotation depth, bullpen firepower, Ross if you believe he was the problem).  Plus they'll pursue backfilling the production lost from Bellinger/Stroman.  I don't think they're calibrated quite perfectly, it puts a lot of pressure on a couple of the prospects in particular to be good fast instead of investing in higher quality to give them greater breathing room.  But there's always tradeoffs so if they feel they have a wave and some redundancy on that front, then I can understand it at least.

I'm sure the Dodgers have a pretty high view of their roster too lol

[muntjack]

To what TT said,  I think firing Ross was the first indicator that the organization believed in the roster they had created, at least more than the average fan believed.  They have a long road just to get back to that level,  however.  I'm still cautiously optimistic but there's a lot of work ahead. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

I'm probably too high on the org as a whole, but then again I was in 2014 and that turned out quite well, but I think we're easily going to end up at the beginning of the season as the favorites to win the division. I look to Counsell and staff to shore up several key weaknesses. His staffs kept low walk rates, his catchers excelled at framing (which helps to not prolong ABs and keep walk rates down) and he didn't wait for relievers to finish shitting the bed. I think we're going to win a lot of games that maybe the last couple years we would have felt like we would have lost. Those little differences will add up IMO.

 

The offense is really good if Seiya continues to emerge as he did after the reset and they add a couple 120 bats. They need to get more balanced and bring in legit LH, along with Hoskins, who feels inevitable at this point. But I Hoyer understands that and has intimated as such. The farm is well positioned to supplement the MLB roster. PCA's defense will give them a boost when his time comes and Counsell likes to press the action on the base paths. I think we can chalk up PCAs struggles to over-anxiousness and expect that he will be a significant part of the team after he acquits himself well in AAA. Horton, Brown, and Murray are knocking on the door. Shaw is a small step behind them. The upper-levels of the farm are deep.

 

I'm disappointed it seems like we aren't going to get the whale but I still think we will have the best team in the division and will be playing in October, where anything can happen.

[Tryptamine]

I don't even have a huge problem with not getting Ohtani/Yamamoto/Soto, I have a tremendous problem if they're completely skipping all of the 2nd tier players as well to focus on 3rd and 4th tier players. That is completely unacceptable from one of Baseball's biggest markets with what should be a lot of  money to available.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just now, Tryptamine said:

I don't even have a huge problem with not getting Ohtani/Yamamoto/Soto, I have a tremendous problem if they're completely skipping all of the 2nd tier players as well to focus on 3rd and 4th tier players. That is completely unacceptable from one of Baseball's biggest markets with what should be a lot of  money to available.

Who is in this 2nd tier that you think they're skipping?

[We Got The Whole 9]

Glasnow and Hoskins are not 3rd or 4th tier players. It sounds like they have cast a really wide net in the trade market. Let's just wait til March and see what unfolds.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Screw Bieber. He's fine but he's a MORP now. I still like Clase. He keeps the ball on the ground and in the yard (11 HR in 238 IP!) and he still averages 99. He'd be expensive AF though. He is absolutely dirt cheap re the contract. His contract is ridiculous - 3/12 against the LT and 2/20 in options for 27-28.

I wouldn’t hate Naydor and Bieber for the right price. I think Clase would cost too many assets. And I wouldn’t want Bieber and Naydor to be the off season. They would need more. Glasnow and Hoskins maybe. Then Morel does play 3rd? Not super exciting.

[Jason Ross]

16 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I'm probably too high on the org as a whole, but then again I was in 2014 and that turned out quite well, but I think we're easily going to end up at the beginning of the season as the favorites to win the division. I look to Counsell and staff to shore up several key weaknesses. His staffs kept low walk rates, his catchers excelled at framing (which helps to not prolong ABs and keep walk rates down) and he didn't wait for relievers to finish shitting the bed. I think we're going to win a lot of games that maybe the last couple years we would have felt like we would have lost. Those little differences will add up IMO.

 

The offense is really good if Seiya continues to emerge as he did after the reset and they add a couple 120 bats. They need to get more balanced and bring in legit LH, along with Hoskins, who feels inevitable at this point. But I Hoyer understands that and has intimated as such. The farm is well positioned to supplement the MLB roster. PCA's defense will give them a boost when his time comes and Counsell likes to press the action on the base paths. I think we can chalk up PCAs struggles to over-anxiousness and expect that he will be a significant part of the team after he acquits himself well in AAA. Horton, Brown, and Murray are knocking on the door. Shaw is a small step behind them. The upper-levels of the farm are deep.

 

I'm disappointed it seems like we aren't going to get the whale but I still think we will have the best team in the division and will be playing in October, where anything can happen.

The one thing I'll push back on is this idea that the offense is really good. They finished 12th in wRC+ last year and 14th in ISO, and lost their best hitter. I know they scored the 6th most runs, but I think that is a bit misleading looking the other numbers. I wouldn't expect them to out preform these metrics in run scoring. I think it's an offense that was far more "fine" than "good" and will require some real work. That's not to say they can't but I do think there was some real positive variance in runs scored for this team last year that I don't really see continuing without that work being done. 

With losing Bellinger, and seemingly, no new 130 wRC+ hitter incoming at this point, it's likely going to be an offense that relies more on depth than core, and probably will require young players to make instant contributions (players like PCA, Canario, Mervis, Shaw, Murray, Caissie....etc) at some point to maintain depth. 

I think in the end, you'll be right that on paper, this should probably shape out to be the best team in a bad division. But I have less faith in the returning offense than you do.

Edited December 7, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Transmogrified Tiger]

One small caveat is that wRC+ is not incorporating baserunning, and the Cubs were an elite baserunning team which is part of why despite being 12th in wRC+ they were 6th in runs.

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

One small caveat is that wRC+ is not incorporating baserunning, and the Cubs were an elite baserunning team which is part of why despite being 12th in wRC+ they were 6th in runs.

It certainly is part of it (I'd argue it's certainly not all of it). But also, trading out, say, Bellinger out for the Hoskins/Belt/Naylor crew is unlikely for that trend to continue. Even more so depending on the future of Morel. I think banking on out performing wRC+ based on a lot of base running seems a bit suspect moving forward.

Edited December 7, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Tryptamine]

10 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Glasnow and Hoskins are not 3rd or 4th tier players. It sounds like they have cast a really wide net in the trade market. Let's just wait til March and see what unfolds.

Glasnow is not a FA. Hoskins is 3rd tier because he is coming off an injury and going to be signing on a 1 year prove it contract. In the past he has not been a 3rd tier player, but coming off the injury, that is where he is.

[We Got The Whole 9]

2 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Glasnow is not a FA. Hoskins is 3rd tier because he is coming off an injury and going to be signing on a 1 year prove it contract. In the past he has not been a 3rd tier player, but coming off the injury, that is where he is.

Fair. I expect him to hit. He could have a small dropoff but I think he'll be solidly above average,