Cubs offseason chit chat...

[PackLandVA]

Anyone think Hottovy and the Cubs pitch lab could help out Kolby Allard?  Former Top 50 prospect and only 26.  Was non-tendered.

Edited November 26, 2023 by PackLandVA
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[Stratos]

horsefeathers

[ToolDRT]

7 minutes ago, Stratos said:

horsefeathers

What happened?

[Stratos]

14 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I think fans create narratives and then argue as if they are facts. And then they only choose examples to make their case and leave any other options out. I think that is what has happened with Morel. Those who want to suggest Morel came up and didn’t play 3rd are not wrong. That did happen. It is when we get into reasons why he didn’t that we start assuming.

My version of assuming goes like this. In spring, maybe the Cubs wanted to boost Madrigal’s stock so they played him at 3rd. They send Morel down and let him play 3rd in the minors. Then, when they brought Morel up they had options at 3rd. He was hitting at DH so they left him there. Maybe, had DH been filled by someone I hope fills it this year, Morel would have played 3rd. People want to point to the Cubs agreeing to let Morel play 1st in the DR. They say that is a sign they are still looking for position for him. They use Jed’s words when he says it is good for him to get exposure there too. But they leave out Jed also saying “we know he can play 2nd and 3rd” because that doesn’t fit their narrative. 
While I agree the Cubs may have some concerns about Morel at 3rd and I even agree it isn’t his best position. I don’t agree the Cubs have closed the book on that idea. I also think that if the Cubs did get a stud DH they wouldn’t necessarily have to trade Morel. If DH isn’t an option they just might put him at 3rd and take uneven play there. 
All that said, for the right deal(controlled starting pitcher-MOR) I can see him traded. I just don’t think he has to be. 

I think the situation last year was fairly straighforward.  Morel struggled offensively in the MLB when pitchers adjusted after his hot start last year so they sent him down to AAA.  I never believed they moved Madrigal to 3B to showcase him for trades, they moved him there because they acquired Swanson and Nico was now the fulltime 2B and there was a hole at 3B so that was the only place on the field where he was going to get playing time.

Last year the Cubs wanted to win games and get into the playoffs.  They had guys on the roster like Madrigal, Morel, and Wisdom who could play 3B or DH, and Ross thought the best team on the field was Madrigal at 3B because of his excellent defensive performance which was clearly better than Morel or Wisdom's glove.  That puts Morel at DH by default since most of the time since Wisdom had struggled at times offensively.

Morel could have played CF but Tauchman had played a decent CF, better than what Morel showed last season at the position.  Through 2023 the Cubs probably saw Morel as below-average defensively at 3B and OF, and better at 2B/SS.  It's not like they were going to play Morel at 3B and DH Madrigal, it wouldn't make sense.  Same reason Wisdom usually didn't play 3B over Madrigal.

Madrigal also showed a solid bat after coming back from Iowa which gave him some rope to stay in the lineup, along with his excellent glovework.  I agree with you that fans need to stop assuming things.  Madrigal and Candelario were seen as better at 3B than Morel during a playoff race, that seems like the long and short of it.  It doesn't mean he's doomed to never play the position adequately.

Edited November 26, 2023 by Stratos

[Rcal10]

8 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

^^ Yeah, “smart spending” is often readily confused for less spending or spreading “equal” among many. That’s prob still the angle on Hoyer’s game too even after Swanson had the best regular season of the FA SSs 

——

I didn’t realize how far the Ohtani stuff has progressed…They dropped that Cubs are sleepers nonsense reeeeal quick, moved to the meat of the pack:

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-rumors-trades-and-signings?t=trades-and-transactions

and apparently this Bruce Levine guy says it’s Dodgers or Cubs (so Cubs) 

https://fansided.com/posts/mlb-rumors-cubs-shohei-ohtani-final-2

This should be done soon. It took two half decade rebuilds within a decade, a very literal overhaul of the economics of the league under the Ricketts including soon enough a more official salary cap (holdforapplause), but the Cubs will resemble what they could have been to MLB over the past century+ :confetticannon:

—

With Reynaldo Lopez going to Atlanta I’m liking Ryne Stanek, Liam Hendriks, Shintaro Fujinami, David Robertson, Jordan Hicks, maybe Stephenson etc…There’s actually enough FA depth that they may be able to sign a depth arm like Thomas Szapucki to a MiLB deal 

 

Yep. And in theory of smart spending does make sense. Every team wants contacts that fit the players. And you can shop for some free agents and get solid deals. But you are never going to get the superstar player without giving him a contract that is not really sensible at some point of the deal. 

 

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Where you and I differ here is that the contract/s is/are only unpleasant to our brainwashed/conditioned sensibilities that likes to confuse nominal for real (tbf salary caps and our tanked increasingly privatized education system encourages this) and always favors our owners. “Intelligent spending” as Hoyer was using it was solely in the context of the public and media demanding Carlos Correa or Trea Turner just to say Cubs spent the money regardless of the baseball 

I’m not sure we differ when it comes to what we think the team should do in regards to their budget. I feel as a large market team they should always be pushing the envelope. It is the only advantage they have. The rest of the advantages are for the small markets. So they need to spend to take advantage of their only advantage. That said,  I am just talking about spending within the structure the Cubs ownership put in place. Cubs ownership doesn’t share my belief. They will manipulate the payroll and use it to not spend freely at some other time. So that brings us back to “smart spending” within the self imposed restraints the ownership puts on the team. If they get Ohtani or trade for Soto and then extend him they better have some young talent in the way up to negate the huge contract they have for that player. Because, IMO they will not constantly play over the LT. And I think this is what will get all the people who worry about that sort of stuff uncomfortable. 

[CubinNY]

Yes. The overall economics of baseball is incredibly suppressed and overwhelmingly skewed toward capital. Free agency is a “gift” that very few players are ever able to take advantage of and even those that are able have their market suppressed by “luxury taxes”, qualifying offers, and the ability of owners to back fill cheap talent through the draft and trades. Some of this is the fault of the union who bargained away their rights.
 

It’s the owners game and they are swimming in money.  Any fan who touts smart spending is playing their game as well. Smart spending was buying the franchise, everything else is either about trying to win or maximize profits. 

Edited November 26, 2023 by CubinNY

[Bertz]

12 hours ago, PackLandVA said:

Anyone think Hottovy and the Cubs pitch lab could help out Kolby Allard?  Former Top 50 prospect and only 26.  Was non-tendered.

He looks pretty done.  Fastball barely over 90, low spin rates, not a crazy release point.  I think the world of Hottovy but doesn't look like a lot of raw material to work with there.

[chibears55]

19 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Do they have to be north of $500M? I would have said that before the injury. I am not sure that is the case now. I honestly think there has already been an offer or it will come before the winter meeting. I am not sure it will be over 

500 mil for a player that will be 30 is a crazy amount of money to tie up into that person. If you go 10-12 years, your paying a guy 50mil or close to it, who likely not even playing anymore at the time from age 38-42, even more so if you go 15 years to lower the annual salary.

I mean it'll be awesome maybe the first 5-6 years,  but unless you have a team built around him ready to win championship ( Angels had good teams, and didn't come close) is it really worth signing him to such amount and years ?

[Tryptamine]

Unfortunately it looks like not much is going to happen league wide until December 3rd. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, chibears55 said:

500 mil for a player that will be 30 is a crazy amount of money to tie up into that person. If you go 10-12 years, your paying a guy 50mil or close to it, who likely not even playing anymore at the time from age 38-42, even more so if you go 15 years to lower the annual salary.

I mean it'll be awesome maybe the first 5-6 years,  but unless you have a team built around him ready to win championship ( Angels had good teams, and didn't come close) is it really worth signing him to such amount and years ?

As I said, I don’t know if it will be $500M. But I do know whatever the contract is there will be a good portion of people suggesting it is crazy for a team to make the deal they made. Fact is, to get a super star FA you have to go to a level that is behind a lot of people’s comfort. My guess is whoever gets Ohtani you will think for him on a ridiculous contract. He isn’t going to a team on a 6 year $250M contract. 

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Unfortunately it looks like not much is going to happen league wide until December 3rd. 

Did something happen or was something said for you to say this? Or do you just think nothing will happen until the winter meetings? 

[Bertz]

12 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Unfortunately it looks like not much is going to happen league wide until December 3rd. 

It's not crazy that a lot of stuff is being held up by Ohtani, but I'm surprised things have been *this* dead.  But yeah at this point seems pretty clear that position player stuff won't move until Ohtani signs, and I wonder if pitching is going to wait for Yamamoto and Imanaga?

[Tryptamine]

8 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Did something happen or was something said for you to say this? Or do you just think nothing will happen until the winter meetings? 

Just reading the tea leaves. As was mentioned, Yamamoto and Iwanaga are freshly posted. Ohtani is unlikely to happen prior to the winter meeting. I doubt any trades of consequence  will happen in the week leading up to the GMs being able to talk face to face. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

6 minutes ago, Bertz said:

It's not crazy that a lot of stuff is being held up by Ohtani, but I'm surprised things have been *this* dead.  But yeah at this point seems pretty clear that position player stuff won't move until Ohtani signs, and I wonder if pitching is going to wait for Yamamoto and Imanaga?

Probably not a great sign that the market for the lower/middle class of FA is going to be that hot, presumably due to how much TV money has evaporated in the last 12 months from clubs that do a lot of their spending in that bracket.

[Rcal10]

12 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Just reading the tea leaves. As was mentioned, Yamamoto and Iwanaga are freshly posted. Ohtani is unlikely to happen prior to the winter meeting. I doubt any trades of consequence  will happen in the week leading up to the GMs being able to talk face to face. 

Well if Ohtani signs this next week things can start happening. I thought he was wanting to get this done before the winter meeting. So that would be next week. There has been some activity, actually. 3 starting pitchers signed. A pen arm or two. Pretty typical for this time of year. 

[chibears55]

55 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Unfortunately it looks like not much is going to happen league wide until December 3rd. 

That pretty much the norm, and even during the meetings not too much happens.

I think most of the transactions get done right before the Holidays and right after for the most part

[chibears55]

51 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

As I said, I don’t know if it will be $500M. But I do know whatever the contract is there will be a good portion of people suggesting it is crazy for a team to make the deal they made. Fact is, to get a super star FA you have to go to a level that is behind a lot of people’s comfort. My guess is whoever gets Ohtani you will think for him on a ridiculous contract. He isn’t going to a team on a 6 year $250M contract. 

Right..  but I just think that unless your already pretty much built to win it all like the Dodgers, Rangers, Astros then it worth getting a guy for that money, I just dont feel the Cubs are in that category yet for a WS run.  If their intentions are to add a couple other solid top players this season and or next, then yea go for broke and let have fun for the next 5-6 seasons.

[Rcal10]

36 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Right..  but I just think that unless your already pretty much built to win it all like the Dodgers, Rangers, Astros then it worth getting a guy for that money, I just dont feel the Cubs are in that category yet for a WS run.  If their intentions are to add a couple other solid top players this season and or next, then yea go for broke and let have fun for the next 5-6 seasons.

How are they not built to win if they got Ohtani and added a few more pieces. They are the clear favorite in the central with those moves. To your way of thinking the only teams that should get premiere players are the Dodgers, Braves, Rangers and Astros. And that is just a ridiculous way to look at building a team. Cubs shouldn’t get the top guy until they win 90+ games for 3 straight years? I couldn’t disagree more with that thought. 

[chibears55]

Just now, Rcal10 said:

How are they not built to win if they got Ohtani and added a few more pieces. They are the clear favorite in the central with those moves. To your way of thinking the only teams that should get premiere players are the Dodgers, Braves, Rangers and Astros. And that is just a ridiculous way to look at building a team. Cubs shouldn’t get the top guy until they win 90+ games for 3 straight years? I couldn’t disagree more with that thought. 

I'm not saying they shouldn't go after a top guy,  just saying they're not ready for a 30 YO 500 million 10 plus year contract top guy, because they're not close with this current roster to competing for a WS championship with just Ohtani added to it.

Like I said, if their intentions are to spend more and add additional upgrades to the roster this offseason and next to put themselves in position to compete for a WS championship over the next 5-6 seasons, then yes go get Ohtani.

If not, then adding Ohtani money is useless if that all your doing spending wise cause it capping you out payroll wise with not wanting to be over the Threshold for multiple seasons. 

 

[ILMindState]

1 hour ago, chibears55 said:

Right..  but I just think that unless your already pretty much built to win it all like the Dodgers, Rangers, Astros then it worth getting a guy for that money, I just dont feel the Cubs are in that category yet for a WS run.  If their intentions are to add a couple other solid top players this season and or next, then yea go for broke and let have fun for the next 5-6 seasons.

The 60 win Rangers were built to win it all when they signed Seager and Semien? Were the 80 win Phillies ready when they signed Harper?

Edited November 26, 2023 by ILMindState

[KCCub]

15 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

I'm not saying they shouldn't go after a top guy,  just saying they're not ready for a 30 YO 500 million 10 plus year contract top guy, because they're not close with this current roster to competing for a WS championship with just Ohtani added to it.

Like I said, if their intentions are to spend more and add additional upgrades to the roster this offseason and next to put themselves in position to compete for a WS championship over the next 5-6 seasons, then yes go get Ohtani.

If not, then adding Ohtani money is useless if that all your doing spending wise cause it capping you out payroll wise with not wanting to be over the Threshold for multiple seasons. 

 

Or you lock up the once in a lifetime player and you continue to add pieces over his tenure. It’s much easier to build around a superstar. If they pass on Ohtani because they feel they aren’t WS ready, then everyone in the front office should be let go. 

[Rcal10]

15 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

I'm not saying they shouldn't go after a top guy,  just saying they're not ready for a 30 YO 500 million 10 plus year contract top guy, because they're not close with this current roster to competing for a WS championship with just Ohtani added to it.

Like I said, if their intentions are to spend more and add additional upgrades to the roster this offseason and next to put themselves in position to compete for a WS championship over the next 5-6 seasons, then yes go get Ohtani.

If not, then adding Ohtani money is useless if that all your doing spending wise cause it capping you out payroll wise with not wanting to be over the Threshold for multiple seasons. 

 

By saying they shouldn’t go $500M for 10+ years you are basically saying they shouldn’t go after Ohtani. You can’t say they should go after him and then the next sentence say they shouldn’t go long years or crazy money. Getting Ohtani might not take $500M, but it will take either crazy long years or crazy annual salary and probably both. 

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, KCCub said:

Or you lock up the once in a lifetime player and you continue to add pieces over his tenure. It’s much easier to build around a superstar. If they pass on Ohtani because they feel they aren’t WS ready, then everyone in the front office should be let go. 

EXACTLY! Now they might not ger him, but they have to try. 
But if nothing else, chibear is proving my point when I said if the cubs did sign him there would be a certain number of fans complaining about the signing. 

Edited November 26, 2023 by Rcal10

[ILMindState]

The best time to sign a generational player is when they are available.