Cubs offseason chit chat...

[JD94]

15 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

No horsefeathers they aren't the same. Ohtani is a unicorn. So trying to say we know what exactly it's going to take to sign him just shows how completely full of horsefeathers one is.

If you think teams don't have a number in mind where they simply back out you are insane, even for Ohtani.

You used Bogaerts as an example, not me. For players like Bogaerts, there is most definitely a cutoff going into their free agency where you’re just not comfortable going there. We agree Ohtani is different. Teams that are seriously interested in signing Ohtani aren’t going to back out over $50M. If LA offers Ohtani $500M and Ohtani tells Jed to match it and he will come to Chicago, do you think Jed/Tom is going to say “no thanks, enjoy LA?” Absolutely not. That’s much more likely to happen with a player like Bogaerts, Swanson, Machado caliber players. If you want Ohtani, you automatically know that it’s likely costing you $4-500M. You’re not backing out on him due to, what’s at that point, not that much money… $50M over 10 years is not that big of a deal. Definitely not enough to pass on Ohtani. 

[Cuzi]

10 minutes ago, JD94 said:

You used Bogaerts as an example, not me. For players like Bogaerts, there is most definitely a cutoff going into their free agency where you’re just not comfortable going there. We agree Ohtani is different. Teams that are seriously interested in signing Ohtani aren’t going to back out over $50M. If LA offers Ohtani $500M and Ohtani tells Jed to match it and he will come to Chicago, do you think Jed/Tom is going to say “no thanks, enjoy LA?” Absolutely not. That’s much more likely to happen with a player like Bogaerts, Swanson, Machado caliber players. If you want Ohtani, you automatically know that it’s likely costing you $4-500M. You’re not backing out on him due to, what’s at that point, not that much money… $50M over 10 years is not that big of a deal. Definitely not enough to pass on Ohtani. 

This argument doesn't hold water.

If you are committed to $450M then another $50M isn't going to stop you. Now you've committed to $500M and the other team upped their offer by $20M. But you've committed to $500M so another $20M isn't going to stop you. Wrong. There's a cut off for everyone and acting like $50M is no big deal is moronic. It's like saying you've never walked past an item you've purchased before at the store because this time it's gone up 50 cents. It's just 50 cents right? So why didn't you buy it? Or you've sat there and waited for Black Friday to come along and get that item in your cart that's $200 for $175. It's just $25. Why wasn't it worth it to you a month earlier at $200?

Edited November 23, 2023 by Cuzi

[ToolDRT]

14 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Funny enough I started a post this AM about how secretly the Cubs don’t have any overly serious competition for Ohtani -and the Dodgers’ bullet was about how they’ve already blown their wad under Friedman to resemble the team Ohtani just left 

Don’t they also have less money on the books as of now too? Or have I made that up…

[JD94]

7 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

This argument doesn't hold water.

If you are committed to $450M then another $50M isn't going to stop you. Now you've committed to $500M and the other team upped their offer by $20M. But you've committed to $500M so another $20M isn't going to stop you. Wrong. There's a cut off for everyone and acting like $50M is no big deal is moronic. It's like saying you've never walked past an item you've purchased before at the store because this time it's gone up 50 cents. It's just 50 cents right? So why didn't you buy it? Or you've sat there and waited for Black Friday to come along and get that item in your cart that's $200 for $175. It's just $25. Why wasn't it worth it to you a month earlier at $200?

Before we make this a big deal, we can just agree to disagree to save both of us time going back and forth. I think one thing and you think another. I think, as long as no wrenches are thrown into it (like shorter term higher AAV), then Ohtani is going to pick where he signs based on where he wants to be and not because somebody outbid the other by 20, 30, 40 whatever million dollars. I think the money is going to be basically the same by all the finalist. 

[ToolDRT]

6 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Than the Cubs for 2025+? That answer is probably no but I might be wrong

Either way I see “blew their wad” as more he’d be sharing the marquee with two other HoFers already anchoring the lineup and behind Bobby Miller in the Future rotation over there 

Yeah, I gotcha. My question was I thought the cubs currently had more money committed to next years roster. So my concern would be while we might be able to do Ohtani and lesser pieces, the dodgers might go for Ohtani and Yamamoto. This is all speculative of course. I’m just not super concerned about teams outside of LA (maybe Texas) and am kinda sizing them up compared to us. 

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Cuzi said:

If you think teams don't have a number in mind where they simply back out you are insane, even for Ohtani.

I agree that most teams, including the Cubs, have a number they're willing to bid up to for every player that they won't go past, including for a Ohtani.  There's a number where Ohtani makes sense, and there's a number where he no longer makes sense, same for every player.  This is the same for pretty much anyone bidding on anything.

There's some fans (not saying it's JD94) who say "the Cubs shouldn't be worried about the numbers, if they want Ohtani just go out and get him", but that's not the way it works, and it would be irresponsible for any team including the Cubs to act like this.  At the end of the day, a team's payroll has a finite limit the owner is willing to set and the Cubs need to build the best team possible using that limit, which means not being foolish and drastically over-paying for players.

My one worry is that Ricketts and the Cubs will prioritize Ohtani for all the extra profit he will make ownership rather than how much Ohtani will improve the team, and pay him based on that profit-generation rather than on his ability to make the team better.  In other words, I don't want the Cubs to be stuck with a crazy Ohtani contract that will make Ricketts lots of money but over the long term not be what's best for the Cubs winning as many games as possible, which is all I care about.

[Stratos]

8 hours ago, LBiittner said:

At first thought, Belt probably translated to another Hosmer/Mancini debacle. But in reality he had a very good productive season in 2023. I'd be satisfied with his addition, provided Jed steps up and does some nice magic with the roster.

 

Belt had a career-high .370 BABIP last year, that worries me regression-wise.  He does have a pretty high career BABIP though at .323.  He's someone they can consider.  He doesn't match well with Mervis in a platoon though if they don't trade Mervis, which they may not if they go with a short-term option like Belt.

[thawv]

20 hours ago, JD94 said:

Morel and PCA probably get it done… or very close to it. That also depends on what the Blue Jays want. Maybe they want Horton instead of PCA. Or PCA and Brown. We just don’t know. 

I think that Steele and Bo have about the same surplus value.  Plus, I'm not really sold on Justin, so I would make that deal all day long in a one for one deal.  

[Rcal10]

7 hours ago, Stratos said:

I agree that most teams, including the Cubs, have a number they're willing to bid up to for every player that they won't go past, including for a Ohtani.  There's a number where Ohtani makes sense, and there's a number where he no longer makes sense, same for every player.  This is the same for pretty much anyone bidding on anything.

There's some fans (not saying it's JD94) who say "the Cubs shouldn't be worried about the numbers, if they want Ohtani just go out and get him", but that's not the way it works, and it would be irresponsible for any team including the Cubs to act like this.  At the end of the day, a team's payroll has a finite limit the owner is willing to set and the Cubs need to build the best team possible using that limit, which means not being foolish and drastically over-paying for players.

My one worry is that Ricketts and the Cubs will prioritize Ohtani for all the extra profit he will make ownership rather than how much Ohtani will improve the team, and pay him based on that profit-generation rather than on his ability to make the team better.  In other words, I don't want the Cubs to be stuck with a crazy Ohtani contract that will make Ricketts lots of money but over the long term not be what's best for the Cubs winning as many games as possible, which is all I care about.

I think fans have to get comfortable with the idea of any Ohtani contract with the Cubs will eventually be a bad deal. You just can’t have the superstar FA player during his prime years at reasonable dollars without also having him at the end of his career when he isn’t worth it, unless he agrees to a shorter deal. But if he takes a shorter deal the yearly salary is going to be much higher. And then that salary isn’t a good deal. 

IMO wherever he ends up the “smart spending fan” is going to complain the team that did get him was crazy agreeing to what they agreed to. 

For the record if he ends up on the Cubs I will not be one of those “smart spending fans”. I may be uncomfortable with what they give him, but enjoy the time we have him.

[thawv]

13 hours ago, Cuzi said:

Are you just naming guys, or actually putting together a 5 player package for Vlad Jr?

Even the best guys in the game dont command that many players on their own because there's a break point where it becomes not worth it. Not even Juan Soto brought back 5 players on his own. The Nationals gave up Soto and Bell to get 5 prospects and a salary dump MLBer. There's no shot the Blue Jays are getting 5 prospects for 2 years of Vlad Jr who was a 1 WAR player last year. He's worth far less than Bichette, not only because of positional worth and actual performance on the field, but because Vlad Jr is going to go through the arb process and is going to cost more than Bo Bichette over those 2 years.

Vlad Jr is probably pretty close to worthless right now. So the idea of him getting traded is probably a stretch, because it's worth far more to the Blue Jays to hope he turns it around.

I agree with this whole thing.  I think that Vlad could be had by a guy like, Wesneski, and a Roederer type. 

[NorthsideAvenger]

31 minutes ago, thawv said:

I think that Steele and Bo have about the same surplus value.  Plus, I'm not really sold on Justin, so I would make that deal all day long in a one for one deal.  

I don't know if Steele for Bichette one for one is ideal. If this is direction the Cubs want to pursue, I hope they can get Tor to include Kikuchi or Monoah in the deal (and whatever the Cubs have to add) to make it work. 

Edited November 23, 2023 by NorthsideAvenger
needed to make my point more clearly.

[thawv]

11 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

If the Cubs get Ohtani they are the favorites in the central. There is no reason they shouldn’t make the playoffs more often than not. They are a better team then the angels in a worse division. Yes, Dodgers can almost guarantee playoffs, but the Cubs wouldn’t be far off that WITH Ohtani.

Vegas is already assuming that the Cubs are going to be big players this off season, as they are favorites to win the central now.   They are 6th favorite to get to the WS out of the NL.

[thawv]

10 hours ago, ToolDRT said:

Yeah, I gotcha. My question was I thought the cubs currently had more money committed to next years roster. So my concern would be while we might be able to do Ohtani and lesser pieces, the dodgers might go for Ohtani and Yamamoto. This is all speculative of course. I’m just not super concerned about teams outside of LA (maybe Texas) and am kinda sizing them up compared to us. 

After 2024, they drop 75 million from payroll.  I see them going to the 3rd level (277 million) if they sign Ohtani.   I also don't see any way they can be competitive without going to the second level of 257 million.   I'm not suggesting that they do this, nor do I want this, but the simple fact is, if they brought Belli and Stroman back, we're looking at about 40 million added to payroll, and they are not better than last year.  They would then have about 10 million to improve the team from last season.  They MUST go over the CBT this season to have winning goals.  

[CubinNY]

11 hours ago, JD94 said:

Before we make this a big deal, we can just agree to disagree to save both of us time going back and forth. I think one thing and you think another. I think, as long as no wrenches are thrown into it (like shorter term higher AAV), then Ohtani is going to pick where he signs based on where he wants to be and not because somebody outbid the other by 20, 30, 40 whatever million dollars. I think the money is going to be basically the same by all the finalist. 

Absolutely. Teams are going to get an idea what he’s looking for and make him an offer based on that. Multiple teams will meet his demands and then he’ll pick what he believes is the best fit for him. Each team might have different sweeteners, but the important part will be the same. 

[jersey cubs fan]

21 hours ago, Petrey10 said:

He only has 2 years of control left. 
 

I think you could get Bo, Soto and Alonso for very little farm hurt for the caliber of player you get back.

 

plus you got some money to sign either jap SP

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

Absolutely. Teams are going to get an idea what he’s looking for and make him an offer based on that. Multiple teams will meet his demands and then he’ll pick what he believes is the best fit for him. Each team might have different sweeteners, but the important part will be the same. 

I just don’t think the Cubs chances of being a playoff team will hurt them in trying for Ohtani. It will come down to if he likes a particular city more than another. If he has liked his stay in LA, he will stay there. If he wants to experience another area of the country the Cubs have a good chance. I am confident the FO will put together a great sales pitch. I do also think money or contract structure could also come into play. And there is still a possibility of a team going well over anyone else. And that won’t be the Cubs, IMO. 

[Rcal10]

3 hours ago, thawv said:

I agree with this whole thing.  I think that Vlad could be had by a guy like, Wesneski, and a Roederer type. 

I think the Jays would laugh in the Cubs face at an offer like that. And if the shoe was in the other foot and the Cubs make that sort of deal and traded a guy like Vlad for that package fans would be irate. 

[Bull]

14 hours ago, Cuzi said:

If the Cubs traded Hoerner in a deal for Bichette, then Bichette would man second and he wouldn't be happy about it. I'm fairly certain he has publicly said he does not want to leave the SS position, and why would he? It's the most valuable position on the diamond behind the pitcher. Who wants to give that up 2 years before your big pay day?

I don’t think it happens. 
 

But I don’t think they’d be looking at him for second. They’d want him at third. The Jays would want a major league ready SS in return and would ask for Hoerner. The Cubs wouldn’t do that…UNLESS….they like Morel/Madrigal at 2B more than they like them at 3B. They then use Hoerner to lower the prospect cost on Bichette. That’s the only way the Cubs trade for Bichette.

I don’t think it happens.

(also, free agents get to say they won’t move off of SS, players acquired in trades don’t get that authority)

Edited November 23, 2023 by Bull

[LBiittner]

4 hours ago, thawv said:

I agree with this whole thing.  I think that Vlad could be had by a guy like, Wesneski, and a Roederer type. 

Roederer is free falling in his ranking within the system. The only reason he's still Cub relevant is his $1.2 million signing bonus.

 

[Rcal10]

33 minutes ago, Bull said:

I don’t think it happens. 
 

But I don’t think they’d be looking at him for second. They’d want him at third. The Jays would want a major league ready SS in return and would ask for Hoerner. The Cubs wouldn’t do that…UNLESS….they like Morel/Madrigal at 2B more than they like them at 3B. They then use Hoerner to lower the prospect cost on Bichette. That’s the only way the Cubs trade for Bichette.

I don’t think it happens.

(also, free agents get to say they won’t move off of SS, players acquired in trades don’t get that authority)

I don’t see Hoerner or Steele in a Bichette trade. It just doesn’t make sense. You will fill one need but create another. I think maybe Morel goes to the Jays, plus a prospect or prospects. Maybe if the Jays like Wesnecki or Assad they could be added too. Honesrly, I don’t even expect the Cubs to get Bichette because I don’t see a good match. Doesn’t make sense for the Jays to take prospects and doesn’t make sense for the Cubs to trade for a position of need by giving up a solid player and then creating a different position of need. 

[Bull]

55 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t see Hoerner or Steele in a Bichette trade. It just doesn’t make sense. You will fill one need but create another. I think maybe Morel goes to the Jays, plus a prospect or prospects. Maybe if the Jays like Wesnecki or Assad they could be added too. Honesrly, I don’t even expect the Cubs to get Bichette because I don’t see a good match. Doesn’t make sense for the Jays to take prospects and doesn’t make sense for the Cubs to trade for a position of need by giving up a solid player and then creating a different position of need. 

It’s not creating another need if you like madrigal and morel at 2B. 
 

to reiterate. I don’t think it happens.

Although Hoerner will never have more value than he has right now..

I don’t think it happens.

[Rcal10]

23 minutes ago, Bull said:

It’s not creating another need if you like madrigal and morel at 2B. 
 

to reiterate. I don’t think it happens.

Although Hoerner will never have more value than he has right now..

I don’t think it happens.

They can also just leave Madrigal or Morel at 3rd if they really thought either filled a need. But I agree with you a deal is not happening. 

[Jason Ross]

7 hours ago, thawv said:

I agree with this whole thing.  I think that Vlad could be had by a guy like, Wesneski, and a Roederer type. 

No he couldn't. A "Roederer-type" is a non-prospect. Wesneski has some upside but as of today is a decent, multi-inning reliever. Was Vlad not great last season? Sure. The Jays have more invested in him than simply his 2023 fWAR. They have hope that he can get back to prior (and his base savant data suggests that is well within belief at the age of 24). They aren't trading him for a maybe MLB SP who needs work and a literal nothing prospect.

[Rcal10]

I don’t see the Cubs doing something that big for a 3rd baseman. I think it will be filled within or on a smaller trade. Could Polanco play 3rd? If so, does something like Polanco and Joe Ryan for Morel and Ben Brown work? Cubs get a decent bat at 3rd and a young controlled pitcher who misses bats. Twins get a lot of cheaper years of a guy who can hit 30+ homers and a top 100 pitching prospect. They save some money. Maybe Vasquez and Gomes need to be added to even it out a little. Allows Twins to get out of the Vasquez contract and still have a back up catcher for a year. I think to like this idea you have to believe in Ryan. I admit I haven’t seen much of him. But I do like his K rate. 

[gocubs218]

They should have traded for Suarez if he was gonna be had for that cheap.