Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, thawv said:

If the Cubs don't have any other options at 1B for the next few years, I would do 4/80.  Yes, of course that's based on the assumption that he's 100% healthy. 

I would personally like to see them work Caissie at 1B because he's slow, and only going to get slower.  Plus the OF is already in the minors.  If they do that, than a one year deal for Hoskins sounds good.  

I don’t know if a contract can be structured like this, but if the Cubs did want 4 years of Hoskins is actually healthy, could they do one for $20M with a $5M buy out or club option for next 3 years at $20M per year? If they can do something like that, I would be ok with it. If it is Alonso for a year but you lose Morel  or Hoskins for a year and whoever (young pitcher) you get for Morel I would take the Hoskins option. I would also take the Hoskins for 3 more years at $20M a year (if healthy) over 6 more of Alonso for maybe $138M. 

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Simply spitballing, but it feels like a Morel/young SP swap would make sense in the event the Cubs signed, say, an expensive Japanese DH. It would help fill the hole left behind by Stroman, the Cubs then fill DH with Ohtani, sign Hoskins...bingo, bango...most of your offseason done.

They can also trade for Glasnow and go over the LT if need be. The following year Glasgow is gone and Otani takes that spot in the rotation. Bingo, bango, bongo…..

Glasnow gone in 25’ so back under the LT. 

[thawv]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Owen Caissie isn't slow. He's actually pretty athletic for his size. He has greatly improved in RF and reports on him this year are vastly better than the past.

The fear with Caissie has never been his current speed. It's what it may look like down the road. As of today there is little reason to take an improving 21 year old RF'er and just move him to 1b before it's needed. A move to 1b could occur, and it probably wouldn't take a ton of time, but as of now, Iowa's OF should be pretty clear, and the Cubs still need long term OF'ers. Suzuki and Happ aren't signed forever, just a few years.

He has a 40 speed tool, and a 30 FV speed tool.  I don't think the Cubs care about Iowa, other than developing players.  The move to 1B would be because the Cubs have a need there.  I don't really see much of a path short term or long term for Caissie in the OF as it currently stands.  If not 1B, then DH.  His stick is big, and the OF is full in the majors and crowded in the minors.  We need a 1B and to me he seems like a logical choice.  Why would they wait?  The need is there today. 

[Bertz]

10 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Simply spitballing, but it feels like a Morel/young SP swap would make sense in the event the Cubs signed, say, an expensive Japanese DH. It would help fill the hole left behind by Stroman, the Cubs then fill DH with Ohtani, sign Hoskins...bingo, bango...most of your offseason done.

Yeah I think if they sign Ohtani they need to save cash elsewhere, and if you trade for Alonso or Soto it seems pretty certain Wicks or Brown are going the other way.  In that case you'd love to have a backfill.  Either way you make the move.

Since trading Morel for pitching would be something you could do that doesn't have any dependencies elsewhere, it might happen pretty quick.

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, thawv said:

He has a 40 speed tool, and a 30 FV speed tool.  I don't think the Cubs care about Iowa, other than developing players.  The move to 1B would be because the Cubs have a need there.  I don't really see much of a path short term or long term for Caissie in the OF as it currently stands.  If not 1B, then DH.  His stick is big, and the OF is full in the majors and crowded in the minors.  We need a 1B and to me he seems like a logical choice.  Why would they wait?  The need is there today. 

You do realize how outdated those FG scouting reports tend to be, right?

 

Caissie has received very nice updates on his defense this year. I'll believe those over a scouting report FG probably hasn't updated much.

Edited November 12, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Cuzi]

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

They can also trade for Glasnow and go over the LT if need be. The following year Glasgow is gone and Otani takes that spot in the rotation. Bingo, bango, bongo…..

Glasnow gone in 25’ so back under the LT. 

Glasnow is still going to cost a decent chunk to acquire even at $25M. He was worth 4 WAR in just 130 innings. Problem with him is that he's so often hurt he is basically a reliever over the span of his career, so unless you are getting something else in the package I hope the Cubs stay away.

[Rcal10]

11 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Glasnow is still going to cost a decent chunk to acquire even at $25M. He was worth 4 WAR in just 130 innings. Problem with him is that he's so often hurt he is basically a reliever over the span of his career, so unless you are getting something else in the package I hope the Cubs stay away.

I year at $25M does hurt his trade value, however. If he cost a top 10 prospect on the Cubs, I would pass on this idea. We are talking about TB here. So they will want to drop his salary. And, they may like someone we don’t even have on our radar as a top Cubs prospect. It is worth looking into, anyway. 
My point is they can trade for a decent starting pitcher of high salary on the last year of his deal if they can get him cheaply. Just let him go the next year. Glasnow fits that scenario. But there might be others. 

[Tryptamine]

18 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

You do realize how outdated those FG scouting reports tend to be, right?

 

Caissie has received very nice updates on his defense this year. I'll believe those over a scouting report FG probably hasn't updated much.

From what I remember, those grades are updated only annually for the vast majority of prospects, with only a few getting a midseason upgrade.

[Cuzi]

34 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I year at $25M does hurt his trade value, however. If he cost a top 10 prospect on the Cubs, I would pass on this idea. We are talking about TB here. So they will want to drop his salary. And, they may like someone we don’t even have on our radar as a top Cubs prospect. It is worth looking into, anyway. 
My point is they can trade for a decent starting pitcher of high salary on the last year of his deal if they can get him cheaply. Just let him go the next year. Glasnow fits that scenario. But there might be others. 

Sure, it hurts it. But you did see the pitching market at the deadline right? Mid tier/borderline bums, like Jack Flaherty, were netting multiple top 20 prospects. Guys on Stromans level were getting 50FV prospects.

When healthy, Glasnow is one of the best in the game, key word healthy. The Rays will have no shortage of suitors willing to trade for him and the Cubs top 10 is full of mid tier prospects. We talk about the Cubs top 10 like its sacred ground, but you could probably scramble 2-15 in any order you want.

Edited November 12, 2023 by Cuzi

[thawv]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

You do realize how outdated those FG scouting reports tend to be, right?

 

Caissie has received very nice updates on his defense this year. I'll believe those over a scouting report FG probably hasn't updated much.

Ok, in a nutshell, where do you play him?  How long before he should join the team?

My point is not so much his OF abilities, more than we have a need at 1B, and he can get up pretty quickly if he plays 1B.  I think it's a good idea to do it sooner than later too.

[Tim]

46 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

We talk about the Cubs top 10 like its sacred ground, but you could probably scramble 2-15 in any order you want.

I'm curious... Who in the 11-15 range are you putting over Horton?

[Cuzi]

1 minute ago, thawv said:

Ok, in a nutshell, where do you play him?  How long before he should join the team?

He should join the team when he is ready. The Cubs arent hurting for corner OF right now. Caissie hasnt even seen AAA yet and he was striking out 31% of the time in AA.

[Jason Ross]

16 minutes ago, thawv said:

Ok, in a nutshell, where do you play him?  How long before he should join the team?

My point is not so much his OF abilities, more than we have a need at 1B, and he can get up pretty quickly if he plays 1B.  I think it's a good idea to do it sooner than later too.

I mean, your point has been his OF abilities to a degree, though. You've called him "slow" and brought up his FG defense scouting report. That's his current defense. 

But where do I play him right now? In RF. He's 21 years old. Having him get experience and get better there is a real thing still. The Cubs will have injuries at RF or in LF sometime. He's not MLB ready today and likely won't be until the end of next year if at all (I love Caissie but I expect him to have a rough introduction for a bit in AAA). Where do I play him in 2025? Well, again, lots of options. Maybe over that offseason then you move him to 1b for a year or two. Maybe he goes back to RF. There's lots of things that can happen between today and then. 

Edited November 12, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Cuzi]

18 minutes ago, Tim said:

I'm curious... Who in the 11-15 range are you putting over Horton?

Horton would probably still be near the top of that range, but I wouldn't question if someone put Canario ahead of him. There is something to be said about being successful in the upper tiers of the minors/MLB. It was just a little over a year ago the talk was how Christian Hernandez was a future ARod. That's not looking like such a hot prediction right now. Caleb Kilian was dominating AA and was going to be the best return the Cubs got out of the Rizzo, Bryant, and Baez sell off. Then he forgot how to throw strikes in MLB and AAA.

Edited November 12, 2023 by Cuzi

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Cuzi said:

Sure, it hurts it. But you did see the pitching market at the deadline right? Mid tier/borderline bums, like Jack Flaherty, were netting multiple top 20 prospects. Guys on Stromans level were getting 50FV prospects.

When healthy, Glasnow is one of the best in the game, key word healthy. The Rays will have no shortage of suitors willing to trade for him and the Cubs top 10 is full of mid tier prospects. We talk about the Cubs top 10 like its sacred ground, but you could probably scramble 2-15 in any order you want.

But that is kind of the point. A guy the  Cubs might have 11-15, Tampa may really like. So maybe the Cubs can get Glasnow for him. Using what a guy traded as a rental isn’t comparing apples to apples. As a rental you aren’t taking on as much salary. As good as Glasnow is, as you have pointed out, he is always hurt. He is not a sure thing to throw 130 innings. And he cost $25M. If someone wants to give a top 50-100 prospect for him they can have him. I don’t think be brings that. He is worth a look at if TB is reasonable on the return. If not, no big deal.

[Cuzi]

6 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

But that is kind of the point. A guy the  Cubs might have 11-15, Tampa may really like. So maybe the Cubs can get Glasnow for him. Using what a guy traded as a rental isn’t comparing apples to apples. As a rental you aren’t taking on as much salary. As good as Glasnow is, as you have pointed out, he is always hurt. He is not a sure thing to throw 130 innings. And he cost $25M. If someone wants to give a top 50-100 prospect for him they can have him. I don’t think be brings that. He is worth a look at if TB is reasonable on the return. If not, no big deal.

A team also reserves the right to trade Glasnow at the deadline and slap him with a QO if they dont. There's a trade off for the extra salary vs doing it at the deadline, because you can't give a player a QO that was traded mid year.

Edited November 12, 2023 by Cuzi

[chibears55]

Yankees offered Ross the Bench Coach position and he turned it down because he wants to either manage or take year off.

[Cuzi]

1 minute ago, chibears55 said:

Yankees offered Ross the Bench Coach position and he turned it down because he wants to either manage or take year off.

Take the year off. Hes already getting paid to be a manager without having to do the job.

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

A team also reserves the right to trade Glasnow at the deadline and slap him with a QO if they dont.

That is a good point. But would Triantos for Glasnow be fair? Borderline Cubs top 10 prospect. Also a type of guy Tampa seems to like. I don’t really like the trade simulator, However according to it, this is a very fair trade. I would be ok with something like this. 

[JHBulls]

21 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Horton would probably still be near the top of that range, but I wouldn't question if someone put Canario ahead of him. There is something to be said about being successful in the upper tiers of the minors/MLB. It was just a little over a year ago the talk was how Christian Hernandez was a future ARod. That's not looking like such a hot prediction right now. Caleb Kilian was dominating AA and was going to be the best return the Cubs got out of the Rizzo, Bryant, and Baez sell off. Then he forgot how to throw strikes in MLB and AAA.

I had to go back to make sure, the comparison to ARod (and Manny Machedo) was from a physical standpoint. If that was the comparison, then it makes more sense. 

7 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Yankees offered Ross the Bench Coach position and he turned it down because he wants to either manage or take year off.

This Sports Illustrated article from a few days ago claims Ross is on the Padres shortlist

https://www.si.com/fannation/mlb/fastball/news/san-diego-padres-considering-now-former-chicago-cubs-manager-david-ross-for-the-same-position

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

Yeah I think if they sign Ohtani they need to save cash elsewhere, and if you trade for Alonso or Soto it seems pretty certain Wicks or Brown are going the other way.  In that case you'd love to have a backfill.  Either way you make the move.

Since trading Morel for pitching would be something you could do that doesn't have any dependencies elsewhere, it might happen pretty quick.

I've had 1908's offseason(Ohtani, Hoskins, Morel for SP) in my head for the last 24 hours too, and especially if Ohtani doesn't want to drag out negotiations I think that's a pretty good pattern to pursue because of how few dependencies there are, especially if there's any real chance a Soto deal transpires after Ohtani decides(which feels likely if Ohtani signs relatively early?).  You're also far enough under your likely spending ceiling that you can be selective on if you want to invest more dollars in the pen, add another SP for safety, or put real money into 3B.

 

That said, the Morel for a pitcher paradigm does have some dependencies.  One is that some other trade, in particular Soto/Alonso, does really need Morel in order to happen.  The other is if the deal is not substantively a 1 for 1 trade.  That's less patterned after Moreno for Varsho, but also when you look at the rotation, it may make more sense to pay more to get a Luzardo(or a Gilbert if available). Those other pieces are not only not available for other deals but lower your depth so your interest in further deals wanes too.

[Cuzi]

I would have probably already given the job to Mike Shildt if I were the Padres. Why the Cardinals fired Shildt is still a mystery to me. The guy took Mike Matheny's .500 win team and made them one of the best defensive teams in baseball and had a .594 winning percentage with them and did nothing but manage 90 win teams before they fired him. Now 2 years later they have Marmol and are last in the division.

Edited November 12, 2023 by Cuzi

[Transmogrified Tiger]

As for Caissie and his defensive home, the way I think of this is that he is in a race against his body.  With his frame and starting point in athleticism, he's very likely to be someone you want at 1B/DH by the time he's arb eligible.  Maybe there's a year or two where he's MLB ready and he's an okay defender, but considering we don't think of him as a strong OF today, it's a narrow path to walk.  Considering Seiya is signed for 3 of those years and other players in the upper minors if they succeed offensively would be higher on the defensive spectrum(Alcantara, Canario), I think it's very fair to think of his primary MLB role as not taking place into the OF.  Doesn't mean that he needs to play 1B at Iowa right away or that there's zero chance he'll play an inning in the grass at Wrigley, but for roster building purposes and considering where folks are going to play the bulk of the time?  1B/DH for me.

[Tim]

I don't think I'd move him yet, but I'd have him start taking some grounders there during drills to see if he's capable.

[Jason Ross]

Yeah, I think the likelihood for Caissie is that the path to playing time isn't in RF (though one injury post-July this summer and any time before 2026 may highly change the equation for a while) with the Cubs. I'm all for getting him time at 1b. I just don't want to "move" him there yet. There's value in having him continue to refine his skills in RF for the time being (in case of that injury).