Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Rex Buckingham]

1 for sure. The length of the Ohtani contract compared to Soto is what sells it. You imagine at least 3 years from Ohtani before an opt-out (doubting he wants an opt out after his first year back pitching), Imanaga seems not that far behind Yamamoto, and I'd rather have Alonso for 1 year with a chance to extend than Turner or Candelario for any years, not that I wouldn't mind Candelario on the right deal

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

 

 

Imanaga is going to be an interesting case. Stuff wise, I've seen some who suggest he's as good, if not a slight bit better than Yamamoto. However, there seems to be a massive disparity between how many home runs the two give up, and getting to the bottom of that disparity feels like it's pretty important. It's above my paygrade, so if the Cubs ultimately decide to go the route of Imanaga, I'll assume they have a plan in place to make sure this isn't a fatal flaw in his game. 

[Cuzi]

18 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

It's hard to pick between those two. For example, is Ohtani on a 10 year contract or is he on a high-AAV-multiple-opt out deal like was suggested? That third player also seems pretty skewed. Alonso is much better than Candelario or a 39 year old Justin Turner, so it feels like #1 is tilted based on just that. 

Agreed that if you gave me a better option in the 3rd slot from that medium tier, that I'd probably lean group 2 over group 1. Either would be good outcomes or me.

Even if you put Hoskins in that 2nd package over Candelario/Turner it's still skewed for #1.

For year 1 in those packages, #1 has the better premium hitter and the better secondary hitter while potentially being a wash in pitching. For year 2, #1 has the better pitching and #2 doesnt even have a hitter. And with package 1 you have better prospects to fill in the blanks.

Edited November 11, 2023 by Cuzi

[Have a seat, Neifi]

If package 2 included an extension for Soto, I’d give it some serious thought.  But it just says “trade” for Soto.

[JD94]

Let’s just say for ***** and giggles that package 2 is Soto on a 10 year extension and package 1 is Ohtani for 10 years no opt outs. Package 2 is Hoskins rather than Turner or Candy. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The salary difference between Ohtani + Imanaga v. Soto + Yamamoto is probably not all that great, so if you can get Alonso in scenario 1 you can probably do it in scenario 2. Especially since in 2 you aren't losing a QO pick and can afford to give up a lil more in trade.

[Rcal10]

Has to be 1 for me. Even if, for the sake of the discussion, Soto signed a long term deal, I would still chose 1 as long as Ohtani was here at least 4 years before opt outs kicked in. And even if Hoskins replaced Candelario or Turner it would still be one. Another thing against 2 is Soto would cost more than Alonso in a trade. So you lose more assets too. That said, an off season of Yamamoto, Soto and Hoskins would not be disappointing. 

[Bertz]

31 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Imanaga is going to be an interesting case. Stuff wise, I've seen some who suggest he's as good, if not a slight bit better than Yamamoto. However, there seems to be a massive disparity between how many home runs the two give up, and getting to the bottom of that disparity feels like it's pretty important. It's above my paygrade, so if the Cubs ultimately decide to go the route of Imanaga, I'll assume they have a plan in place to make sure this isn't a fatal flaw in his game. 

Yeah the data coming out makes it look like Yamamoto is better than Imanaga, but not by nearly enough to justify getting ~2.5x the cash.  The scouting-forward stuff seems to more affirm where the projected price tags are.  

[Tim]

I'll take door #3:

• Trade for Soto
• Sign Imanaga
• Sign Bellinger (same-ish money as Alonso)

[JD94]

https://x.com/cubszone/status/1723386339209421161?s=46&t=iRdezfuJVGBU0wPvMftX0w

[Cuzi]

2 minutes ago, JD94 said:

https://x.com/cubszone/status/1723386339209421161?s=46&t=iRdezfuJVGBU0wPvMftX0w

That's not to say he hasn't had any contact with Carter Hawkins.

Just kidding. Kind of weird to specifically say Jed Hoyer and not simply the Cubs, though.

[JHBulls]

3 hours ago, JD94 said:

This is kind of fun… which would you choose? 1 or 2 

 

 

I would take Package 1. 

You’re basically getting your ace for 2025 and beyond (Ohtani), a highly sort after pitcher in Imanaga, Ohtani’s top tier bat for 10+ years and Alonso for a year.

 

Package 2 is very good as well but I just feel like Ohtani/Imanaga beats out Yamamoto and Ohtani cancels out Soto. Candelario or Turner is definitely not enough to change my mind. 

[tenderdracula]

I'd take 1 but I feel like 2 is a lot more achievable.  1 is the dream off season, 2 is we went all in and this is what we ended up with.  

Edited November 11, 2023 by tenderdracula
deeper meditation on what i posted

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Cuzi said:

That's not to say he hasn't had any contact with Carter Hawkins.

Just kidding. Kind of weird to specifically say Jed Hoyer and not simply the Cubs, though.

Kind of weird for Preller to make any comment at all

[Stratos]

7 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Just my opinion, but I think Happ is less likely to be at 3rd than Morel is. Not often does a guy go from an easier position to a harder one. Usually the other way around. Most recent examples are Bryant and Braun. Happ has been in the OF too long and really, even when he did play the infield it wasn’t 3rd. Maybe he can play 1st. 

In the MLB Happ has played 185 innings at 3B and 61 innings at 1B.  He only played 2B in the infield in the minors.  He'd probably do ok but would say putting a back-to-back gold glove LF in the infield is probably not wise.

Morel would probably be at least average at any position they wanted if they left him at one darn position and just let him play.

[ToolDRT]

They must feel like they have a legit shot at Ohtani if they haven’t even checked in on Soto yet. Really need to start that dialogue with San Diego though. Juan Soto is a really good option. 
 

Of course, it’s early and I’m sure no trade happens until the meetings at the earliest anyway. Still. Call him Jed!

[Stratos]

There's lots of decent choices there.  I think it becomes a question of who the Cubs are able to get as the bigger bat (if any), which will determine how they proceed with the other holes.  I suspect a trade on the offense side.

If they don't sign Bellinger I could see them signing Bader in CF.  If they acquire Soto or Ohtani then maybe Hoskins at 1B or someone like Candelario/Polanco who can play both 3B and 1B.  Trade for Alonso then they might be able to roll with that or pick up someone at 3B.

Cubs were 6th in MLB in runs scored last year, but 16th in runs allowed even with a good defense, so improving pitching should be the priority, as long as they can replace Bellinger's production.

[Stratos]

Didn't know this, but Candelario was non-tendered by the Tigers last offseason.

[gocubs218]

24 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Didn't know this, but Candelario was non-tendered by the Tigers last offseason.

Well yeah, he was negative win player for them. People forget that and why I’m hesitant to go multi years with him.

Edited November 11, 2023 by gocubs218

[Stratos]

39 minutes ago, gocubs218 said:

Well yeah, he was negative win player for them. People forget that and why I’m hesitant to go multi years with him.

Yeah he had a bad year in 2022, I can see teams being hesitant.  But 3 of the last 4 seasons he's had good years (2020 was COVID shortened), though 2020-21 he had a high BABIP.  I'm more interested in paying for tools/abilities than just stats since the latter can vary season to season.  He seems like an above average hitter and average fielder.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

1 hour ago, gocubs218 said:

Well yeah, he was negative win player for them. People forget that and why I’m hesitant to go multi years with him.

His so far mediocre career should be enough for everyone to be hesitant.

[Rcal10]

24 minutes ago, Ding Dong Johnson said:

His so far mediocre career should be enough for everyone to be hesitant.

Hesitant to do what? Offer a 3 year deal? I think he will get that. For the right price as long as you realize he is what he is, he is an ok signing. #6 hitter in a solid line up and preferrably a 3rd baseman. He is fine for maybe 3/$40M.

[gocubs218]

11 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Hesitant to do what? Offer a 3 year deal? I think he will get that. For the right price as long as you realize he is what he is, he is an ok signing. #6 hitter in a solid line up and preferrably a 3rd baseman. He is fine for maybe 3/$40M.

Let someone else offer him 3 years. I’d rather go with Madrigal until Shaw is ready middle of next year: 

[Ding Dong Johnson]

28 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Hesitant to do what? Offer a 3 year deal?

Well that was what I was responding to so, yes. I don’t give a horsefeathers what anyone else would do. I wouldn’t.

[Rcal10]

16 minutes ago, gocubs218 said:

Let someone else offer him 3 years. I’d rather go with Madrigal until Shaw is ready middle of next year: 

Shaw is just the next great prospect. When the time comes for him to come up people will be finding fault with him too. You don’t leave spaces open for guys

 

2 minutes ago, Ding Dong Johnson said:

Well that was what I was responding to so, yes. I don’t give a horsefeathers what anyone else would do. I wouldn’t.

I don’t love Candelario. And I would be fine not getting him. But as long as the Cubs or whoever does sign him value him as an ok starter he can be signed to a reasonable contract. I am not,  in any way,  advocating the Cubs should sign him. I am just saying he is an ok/decent player. And if the  ins did sign him he better be their 4th biggest acquisition (via FA or trade) of the off season. He can’t be a main signing. That is what I mean by he is ok if valued correctly.