Going somewhere, Soto? Yes, to the Yankees

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I would move Horton for Soto.  He's probably the only guy we know is available I'd do it for but I'd do it.  That would have to do like 90% of the heavy lifting though.  San Diego is not getting Horton and Caissie for instance.  They're getting like Horton and Christian Franklin, or Horton and Matt Mervis.

Realistically though, I don't expect Horton is available or necessary.  This report makes me think the return is one of Caissie/Alcantara and one of Assad/Wicks/Brown, which is basically where my head was at until the Morel rumors popped up.

I seriously doubt they trade Horton for Soto. I don’t think one year of a guy they have to pay $33M for gets the Padres a prospect at Horton’s level.

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

That is interesting. So what does that do for his chances of staying with the Cubs? And if they kept Morel I am not sure how Soto fits in, DH? Also does that take Alonso out of trade talks? Does that mean no interest in Hoskins. And finally I think that would close the books on Mervis.

It could give the Cubs a place to keep Morel if they brought in a DH like Soto or Ohtani. It could be a negotiation tactic for teams who are worried the Cubs don't need Morel if they bring in Soto/Ohtani. It could be the end for Mervis. I'm not entirely sure yet. It has lots of implications.

[JD94]

20 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I would move Horton for Soto.  He's probably the only guy we know is available I'd do it for but I'd do it.  That would have to do like 90% of the heavy lifting though.  San Diego is not getting Horton and Caissie for instance.  They're getting like Horton and Christian Franklin, or Horton and Matt Mervis.

Realistically though, I don't expect Horton is available or necessary.  This report makes me think the return is one of Caissie/Alcantara and one of Assad/Wicks/Brown, which is basically where my head was at until the Morel rumors popped up.

I’d move anybody not named Horton or PCA for Soto. Not for 1 year and I’m not even guaranteed to extend him. Obviously we’ve seen time and time again all you have to do is make the playoffs and be hot at the right time, but on paper, we aren’t a Juan Soto away from WS contenders. Going all in and trading one of, if not the best starting pitching prospect in all of baseball to go all in on WS or bust doesn’t make a whole hell of a lot of sense for this current Cubs team. 

[ToolDRT]

Damn. I don’t think I could get myself to trade Horton for Soto even with an extension. 
 

I think I would do PCA though. That obp is 🤤

Edited November 9, 2023 by ToolDRT

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, ToolDRT said:

Damn. I don’t think I could get myself to trade Horton for Soto even with an extension. 
 

I think I would do PCA though. That obp is 🤤

PCA is suffering from not being the shiney new toy. Happens to all prospects. Guys don’t want to trade the new best thing. But as soon as they see that guy they want to move him. 19 AB over 30 3 weeks in the majors shoukd not diminish PCA’s value. There is no way the Cubs should trade a top 15 prospect in the game for Soto. 

[ToolDRT]

13 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

PCA is suffering from not being the shiney new toy. Happens to all prospects. Guys don’t want to trade the new best thing. But as soon as they see that guy they want to move him. 19 AB over 30 3 weeks in the majors shoukd not diminish PCA’s value. There is no way the Cubs should trade a top 15 prospect in the game for Soto. 

I’m sure that’s it for some people, I’ve just had concerns with how his bat would translate to an everyday starting role. And would I trade him for a year of Soto? No.

Soto with an extension? Yes. And I’ll gladly drive him to the airport as well. Soto is a monster and only 25 years old. I can safely say I’d rather build a core around Juan Soto than PCA. 

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, ToolDRT said:

I’m sure that’s it for some people, I’ve just had concerns with how his bat would translate to an everyday starting role. And would I trade him for a year of Soto? No.

Soto with an extension? Yes. And I’ll gladly drive him to the airport as well. Soto is a monster and only 25 years old. I can safely say I’d rather build a core around Juan Soto than PCA. 

But when talking a trade with SD Soto has to be considered a 1 year rental. That is the value the Padres should expect back. And a top 15 prospect in the game shoukd not be traded for one year and a $33M contract. I get the PCA concern. But if they are going to trade PCA I would rather it be for a young controlled starting pitcher they can have for 4 years or more. Sign Bellinger and deal PC for a pitcher. 

Keep in mind, I would love Soto. But that is too high a price for him. They don’t need to give PCA for him. 

 

[ToolDRT]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

But when talking a trade with SD Soto has to be considered a 1 year rental. That is the value the Padres should expect back. And a top 15 prospect in the game shoukd not be traded for one year and a $33M contract. I get the PCA concern. But if they are going to trade PCA I would rather it be for a young controlled starting pitcher they can have for 4 years or more. Sign Bellinger and deal PC for a pitcher. 

Keep in mind, I would love Soto. But that is too high a price for him. They don’t need to give PCA for him. 

 

Oh no, we completely agree if it doesn’t come with an extension. There’s many prospects I’d hold out if it was just the one year. My only difference being if Soto came with an extension I’d do PCA in that deal. Still not sure that would make me move Horton. But maybe I’m wayyyy too high on Horton at this point, cause I love him. 

[Jason Ross]

11 minutes ago, ToolDRT said:

Oh no, we completely agree if it doesn’t come with an extension. There’s many prospects I’d hold out if it was just the one year. My only difference being if Soto came with an extension I’d do PCA in that deal. Still not sure that would make me move Horton. But maybe I’m wayyyy too high on Horton at this point, cause I love 

I think it's important to point out: an extension should not change Juan Soto's trade value. The reason why is due to the nature of the MLB; there are no sign and trades. Juan Soto's trade value and his extension will be mutually exclusive. Any trade with SD will only acquire a single year of Juan Soto at $33m (or so). If the acquiring team then goes on to sign Soto to an extension, that will not involve San Diego in any way. Basically, whether or not someone extends Soto, his value in a trade remains static.

Edited November 9, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Rcal10]

9 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think it's important to point out: an extension should not change Juan Soto's trade value. The reason why is due to the nature of the MLB; there are no sign and trades. Juan Soto's trade value and his extension will be mutually exclusive. Any trade with SD will only acquire a single year of Juan Soto at $33m (or so). If the acquiring team then goes on to sign Soto to an extension, that will not involve San Diego in any way. Basically, whether or not someone extends Soto, his value in a trade remains static.

Which is why guys like PCA and Horton shouldn’t even be discussed. 

Edited November 9, 2023 by Rcal10

[ToolDRT]

8 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think it's important to point out: an extension should not change Juan Soto's trade value. The reason why is due to the nature of the MLB; there are no sign and trades. Juan Soto's trade value and his extension will be mutually exclusive. Any trade with SD will only acquire a single year of Juan Soto at $33m (or so). If the acquiring team then goes on to sign Soto to an extension, that will not involve San Diego in any way. Basically, whether or not someone extends Soto, his value in a trade remains static.

Yeah, I worded that poorly, I was speaking more in hypotheticals. Like I’d trade PCA if I knew an extension was happening type of thing. 

[Rcal10]

57 minutes ago, ToolDRT said:

Yeah, I worded that poorly, I was speaking more in hypotheticals. Like I’d trade PCA if I knew an extension was happening type of thing. 

If you are saying you would rather go the next 10 years with Soto as the main core player than hope PCA can amount to a core player and be that main guy, I 100% agree with you.

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 hour ago, ToolDRT said:

Yeah, I worded that poorly, I was speaking more in hypotheticals. Like I’d trade PCA if I knew an extension was happening type of thing. 

It still doesn't make sense. Like SD gets a better player because the player they are trading agrees to an extension? Soto's value at this point should be close to what Betts' was 5 years ago, regardless of what happens with his contract. 

[ToolDRT]

26 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

It still doesn't make sense. Like SD gets a better player because the player they are trading agrees to an extension? Soto's value at this point should be close to what Betts' was 5 years ago, regardless of what happens with his contract. 

I mean the free agent market for position players is pretty poor at the moment. I think Soto will go for a haul to be honest. Having said that, if you can get him for less absolutely. I’m only saying where I would tap out of the conversation and that’s at Horton. 

[ToolDRT]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

If you are saying you would rather go the next 10 years with Soto as the main core player than hope PCA can amount to a core player and be that main guy, I 100% agree with you.

Yes, exactly. Ideally you could grab him without including PCA. My thought was just (assuming an extension were to happen) I’d do PCA for Soto if that’s what it took. 

[CubinNY]

13 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

PCA is suffering from not being the shiney new toy. Happens to all prospects. Guys don’t want to trade the new best thing. But as soon as they see that guy they want to move him. 19 AB over 30 3 weeks in the majors shoukd not diminish PCA’s value. There is no way the Cubs should trade a top 15 prospect in the game for Soto. 

I don't think that is true at all. Right now PCA is a glove-first type of player that we all hope learns to tone down his hyper-aggressive approach to maximize his bat-to-ball skills. He's not Baez but as close to Baez as we've had since. He doesn't have as much power and is less likely to make swing decisions before the pitcher releases the ball. 

I don't think they will consider trading him for Soto, but that doesn't mean there aren't things that PCA needs to work on. 

[Rcal10]

13 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I don't think that is true at all. Right now PCA is a glove-first type of player that we all hope learns to tone down his hyper-aggressive approach to maximize his bat-to-ball skills. He's not Baez but as close to Baez as we've had since. He doesn't have as much power and is less likely to make swing decisions before the pitcher releases the ball. 

I don't think they will consider trading him for Soto, but that doesn't mean there aren't things that PCA needs to work on. 

I agree that PCA has work to do. However before he came up talking about trading him was not done. Most love the newest guy coming. Until he gets here. Right now Horton is the guy. Shaw is also somekne people are living now. Maybe it is prospect fatigue. After a bit of time fans start to get tired of waiting in a guy so they go to the next guy. Again, the new shiney toy. 

[squally1313]

Thinking about a Soto extension pessimistically and probably too 'rational markets'-y....the financial details of a Soto extension for the Cubs or another team are probably such that no other team was willing to match those amounts, which implies a lack of surplus value on a go forward basis. The Cubs can decide how much a 5-6 WAR DH/bad corner outfielder making $33m is worth in terms of a trade offer for one year. I don't put a lot of stock in like, this exclusive negotiating window. He's going to go for the biggest offer 12 months from now. 

[Rcal10]

55 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Thinking about a Soto extension pessimistically and probably too 'rational markets'-y....the financial details of a Soto extension for the Cubs or another team are probably such that no other team was willing to match those amounts, which implies a lack of surplus value on a go forward basis. The Cubs can decide how much a 5-6 WAR DH/bad corner outfielder making $33m is worth in terms of a trade offer for one year. I don't put a lot of stock in like, this exclusive negotiating window. He's going to go for the biggest offer 12 months from now. 

Exactly. Same as every team. What is his value for 1 year, period. That is the return the Padres deserve. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Betts is a far superior player and was only set to make 27m when the Red Sox traded him. I think people are going to be surprised by the return the Padres get, although it's likely they won't settle for a headliner as weak as the Red Sox did.

[Bertz]

Even if you set aside any and all soft factors, the Qualifying Offer is a very tangible and explicit cudgel to aid in resigning a guy you want to keep.  So if you are keen on keeping Soto there very much is value in grabbing him now. 

There's also the big one, which is opportunity.  People pretend Boras guys never sign extensions but that's not true.  If you want Juan Soto  in 2025+ there's a very real chance you need to get him in the door this offseason.  

Edited November 9, 2023 by Bertz

[Rex Buckingham]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

Even if you set aside any and all soft factors, the Qualifying Offer is a very tangible and explicit cudgel to aid in resigning a guy you want to keep.  So if you are keen on keeping Soto there very much is value in grabbing him now. 

There's also the big one, which is opportunity.  People pretend Boras guys never sign extensions but that's not true.  If you want Juan Soto  in 2025+ there's a very real chance you need to get him in the door this offseason.  

The Qualifying offer is nothing to a player the caliber of Juan Soto. Nobody is going to hesitate to give up a pick to sign him.

[Bertz]

5 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

The Qualifying offer is nothing to a player the caliber of Juan Soto. Nobody is going to hesitate to give up a pick to sign him.

It's ~$20M in value that other teams have to pay that the Cubs don’t.  If they want to keep him that matters.

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

Even if you set aside any and all soft factors, the Qualifying Offer is a very tangible and explicit cudgel to aid in resigning a guy you want to keep.  So if you are keen on keeping Soto there very much is value in grabbing him now. 

There's also the big one, which is opportunity.  People pretend Boras guys never sign extensions but that's not true.  If you want Juan Soto  in 2025+ there's a very real chance you need to get him in the door this offseason.  

While I think it can help if you have him on the team in 24’ I think I’m the end he will take the most money. There is a slim chance he comes here and loves it so he gives a SLIGHT dissonant. Or maybe an offer is made so good he decides not to bother with the FA process. But I would say that is, at best, a 5% chance.

[chopsx9]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

  If you want Juan Soto  in 2025+ there's a very real chance you need to get him in the door this offseason.  

IMO I just don't think this is true.  He's in the drivers seat he's going to go where he wants.  In all likelihood it can't hurt but are you willing to waste the prospects to find out he has no interest in signing an extension.  If it all it takes is Morel - and I want to keep Morel - then I think you have to do it but I'm not huge on the idea of trading a boatload of prospects on the hopes of him re-signing a contract that an be expressed as a factor of a Billion Dollars.