NFL 2023 - Weekly Discussion

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

5 hours ago, gflore34 said:

I'd like to see how they're getting so wide open, is there some picking and rubbing off of defenders going on?

A lot of it is Love signaling to the WRs that the defense is likely to be in man or zone, and run a route combo accordingly.  Around the goalline they are running a lot of rubs/picks, but in the open field, it's a lot of clearance routes and TE leaks.  It isn't anything magic, but defenses are just completely falling apart.  

[Sammy Sofa]

 

[minnesotacubsfan]

1 hour ago, Sammy Sofa said:

 

 

 

Dude is one of my fav NFL players, such a character:

 

[Brian707]

Plus all the rubes on a gambling message board I frequent were tilted because he was drinking Bud Lite.

[jersey cubs fan]

1 hour ago, minnesotacubsfan said:

Dude is one of my fav NFL players, such a character:

 

Dude is great but everything about the Mummers sucks 

[jersey cubs fan]

3 minutes ago, username said:

I'm completely bewildered by the complete lack of uproar -- or frankly even casual discussion -- of Todd Bowles just quitting at the end of the Lions-Bucs game.  That's a fireable offense. 

Bewildered? That’s odd. There’s plenty of uproar if you want to look for it. Nobody here gives a horsefeathers about Tampa though, so you aren’t going to get much passionate discussion. 

[minnesotacubsfan]

2 hours ago, jersey cubs fan said:

Dude is great but everything about the Mummers sucks 

prolly my least fav XTC album

 

[Sammy Sofa]

2 hours ago, jersey cubs fan said:

Dude is great but everything about the Mummers sucks 

Clearly Jersey spends too much time listening to waiting room music:

 

[Brian707]

3 hours ago, username said:

I'm completely bewildered by the complete lack of uproar -- or frankly even casual discussion -- of Todd Bowles just quitting at the end of the Lions-Bucs game.  That's a fireable offense. 

To recap -- the Lions took a knee with 36 seconds left on the 32 yard line, bringing up 4th down.  In what world do you NOT use your remaining time out there?  The Lions kicker has made less than 70% of his kicks from 40+ yards.  It is FAR from certain he makes that kick.  If he misses, the Bucs get the ball with about 30 seconds left.  Difficult to get a TD and then a 2point conversion to tie?  Sure.  Impossible?  Obviously not.  But for the coach to just absolutely quit on his team rather than simply giving them a chance after those players have busted their ass the past 6 months to get to where they are?  Man, I don't see how he still has a job.  That should be a career ender IMO.  

You left the part out where Goff had plenty of time on the play clock on the previous plays where he could have killed the clock. It probably just was a gentleman agreement between Campbell and Bowles. "You don't call timeout, we won't wait til 1 second on each play killing the clock" 

If the Lions wanted to, with TB only having one timeout they would have let the clock go to 1 and ended the game. This "uproar" was not a real thing.

Edited January 23, 2024 by Brian707

[sneakypower]

i've just seen people understandably confused about the decision to go for 2 after their last score

which imo is pretty indefensible from TB's end if your play there is a goal-line fade

[Andy]

20 minutes ago, sneakypower said:

i've just seen people understandably confused about the decision to go for 2 after their last score

which imo is pretty indefensible from TB's end if your play there is a goal-line fade

#BanTheFade, but by itself, going for 2 when you are down 14 and then score a TD is actually a very smart play, because if you get it, you can then win the game with a TD+PAT as opposed to tying it. If you don't get it, you can still tie it up with a TD+2. Teams drastically undervalue gunning for the regulation win when coming from behind, and they shouldn't, especially in the playoffs, where there is no such thing as a tie.

I had never really heard of this idea before Carolina did it (unsuccessfully) against Green Bay in 2020, and it was one of those head-slappers, like, how did I not think of this before?

Edited January 23, 2024 by Andy

[Transmogrified Tiger]

10 minutes ago, Andy said:

#BanTheFade, but by itself, going for 2 when you are down 14 and then score a TD is actually a very smart play, because if you get it, you can then win the game with a TD+PAT as opposed to tying it. If you don't get it, you can still tie it up with a TD+2. Teams drastically undervalue gunning for the regulation win when coming from behind, and they shouldn't, especially in the playoffs, where there is no such thing as a tie.

I had never really heard of this idea before Carolina did it (unsuccessfully) against Green Bay in 2020, and it was one of those head-slappers, like, how did I not think of this before?

Mina Kimes had a tweet video referencing that decision, I think the stat was no one went for 2 in that situation for over 15 years prior to 2017, but this year coaches did it around 30% of the time.

 

[sneakypower]

it's all predicated on "black-box-plane" logic, yeah the math on it – the conversion rate is 55% this year because teams often save their best gadget plays for the very rare instance they need to pull out a philly special or whatever

"the math says go for it" is a flawed concept because it ignores too much context

[sneakypower]

goal line fade is like 15-30% success these days so that's the math they should consider

[CubColtPacer]

2 hours ago, sneakypower said:

it's all predicated on "black-box-plane" logic, yeah the math on it – the conversion rate is 55% this year because teams often save their best gadget plays for the very rare instance they need to pull out a philly special or whatever

"the math says go for it" is a flawed concept because it ignores too much context

That's not really the point of the math though.  It's not because the 2 point play is a higher percentage play in isolation.

It's more that you have 3 opportunities to basically flip a coin.  You can go for 2 after the first TD.  You can go for 2 after the second TD.  Or you can flip the OT coin.  You have to flip one of those three coins to win the gmae

If you lose the OT coin flip, you lose,  If you lose the second TD coin flip, you almost certainly lose.  If you lose the first coin flip, you have options.  That's why it's so much better to do it then.

And expanding it to these situations isn't going to change the percentages that much.  It makes sense for a normal team to go for 2 maybe 5-6 times during an entire season.  It doesn't need to be 55 percent, if it's more like 47-50 percent the math still makes sense to go for it.

[Old Style]

Raiders are interviewing Getsy for OC. :lol:

[BigbadB]

12 hours ago, Old Style said:

Raiders are interviewing Getsy for OC. :lol:

Maybe it's Fields intel. If by some weird chance they hire Getsy, you can eliminate the Raiders as a Fields landing spot. No way that combo works together again. 

[BigbadB]

I was only sorta half paying attention once the Lions got the ball back since they could just take a knee and end the game. I was pretty surprised when I read the article about Bowles just letting the time run out when Detroit allowed them an opportunity to get the ball back. 

You gotta call time out there. Missed field goal and a PI on Kindle Vildor on a Mike Evans deep pass is too likely to pass up. Not sure how they could have some sort of coach agreement to end that game from opposite sides of the field. I wouldn't consider Bowles taking the time out there to be any worse taking advantage of a situation any more than hiking the ball while defensemen are still running off the field or some other sort of take advantage of the rules type swindle. 

This is a playoff game. Win or go home. Detroit left a door open and Bowles closed it with a slam rather than taking a peak to see what was on the other side. The TB fan base should be livid. His response to why he didn't doesn't sit well, either. My guess is they just assumed the game was over and weren't paying close attention to the fact Detroit was taking the snap way sooner than they should. I think they just thought the same as me and thought the game was over. And by all intents and purposes, it should have been. 

[Soul]

On 1/24/2024 at 7:20 AM, BigbadB said:

I was only sorta half paying attention once the Lions got the ball back since they could just take a knee and end the game. I was pretty surprised when I read the article about Bowles just letting the time run out when Detroit allowed them an opportunity to get the ball back. 

You gotta call time out there. Missed field goal and a PI on Kindle Vildor on a Mike Evans deep pass is too likely to pass up. Not sure how they could have some sort of coach agreement to end that game from opposite sides of the field. I wouldn't consider Bowles taking the time out there to be any worse taking advantage of a situation any more than hiking the ball while defensemen are still running off the field or some other sort of take advantage of the rules type swindle. 

This is a playoff game. Win or go home. Detroit left a door open and Bowles closed it with a slam rather than taking a peak to see what was on the other side. The TB fan base should be livid. His response to why he didn't doesn't sit well, either. My guess is they just assumed the game was over and weren't paying close attention to the fact Detroit was taking the snap way sooner than they should. I think they just thought the same as me and thought the game was over. And by all intents and purposes, it should have been. 

This seems like the most likely scenario to me.  Which is horrible.  Not paying attention in any scenario is inexcusable.  In this scenario it’s beyond belief.

[CubinNY]

Jackson is some kind of athlete 

[Soul]

I can’t see the ravens coming back from that.. what a defensive play.

[17 Seconds]

the chiefs are amazing but it seems like everyone just shits the bed against them

[Rex Buckingham]

What a bad throw from Jackson

[Derwood]

1 hour ago, 17 Seconds said:

the chiefs are amazing but it seems like everyone just shits the bed against them

The refs are also insanely biased in the Chiefs favor (and have been for years)

[Tryptamine]

Lions putting it on the 49ers early.