Pete Alonso

[Derwood]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

Go look at his HR rates, if he manages to stay relatively healthy he’s going to get close to or hit 500 HR. Steroid era aside, that’s the definition of a generational talent. Is he a great baseball player, no, but he’s a generational masher of HR. That’s plenty valuable in the modern game
 

What were Chris Davis’ home run dates before he completely fell apart? How much do the Orioles still owe him?

[CubinNY]

44 minutes ago, Derwood said:

What were Chris Davis’ home run dates before he completely fell apart? How much do the Orioles still owe him?

Why are you coming up with a comparison that makes absolutely zero sense?

But since we’re having a conversation, which prospect that the Cubs have may become a generational talent? The Cubs or any team isn’t going to empty the minors for him. That doesn’t also mean they will be able to get him as a one year rental (which would be stupid anyway) for nothing special. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

First basemen have a pretty steep aging curve in the modern game, and the ones who have defied it the best are those who are in excellent physical condition and demonstrate other skills besides elite power(hit tool, plate discipline, gold glove defense).  Alonso has none of those, and even if he has better plate discipline than Chris Davis he's still a pretty substantial risk.  The optimist's case is that he has set a consistently high floor, which while it isn't foolproof(e.g. Prince Fielder) definitely helps, alongside his performance maybe being suppressed a bit by his home park.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

59 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Why are you coming up with a comparison that makes absolutely zero sense?

But since we’re having a conversation, which prospect that the Cubs have may become a generational talent? The Cubs or any team isn’t going to empty the minors for him. That doesn’t also mean they will be able to get him as a one year rental (which would be stupid anyway) for nothing special. 

The whole point of generational talent is that there's, you know, one per generation.  Most teams don't have one.

 

I hate how sports superlatives get watered down. Y'all murdered elite in a matter of years and now generational is next.

[Tim]

1 hour ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

The whole point of generational talent is that there's, you know, one per generation.  Most teams don't have one.

 

I hate how sports superlatives get watered down. Y'all murdered elite in a matter of years and now generational is next.

This reminds me...now that Sully is back he needs to pay up on the bet about the Bears having an "elite" running attack

 

[muntjack]

1 hour ago, TomtheBombadil said:

 chomping at the bit to [finally] trade some famous prospects for ML talent 

I'm confused.  They just traded for Candelario, worth a full win more than Alonso this season.  Would you rather they had given up better prospects?  

[Tim]

A package like Gallardo, Hearn and Murray could probably net Trout for us.

[CubinNY]

I don't know if the Sterns lead Mets are interested in trading Alonso, but if they are the Cubs need to make an effort. He hit his 44th HR last night. 114 EV.

[chibears55]

7 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I don't know if the Sterns lead Mets are interested in trading Alonso, but if they are the Cubs need to make an effort. He hit his 44th HR last night. 114 EV.

Instead of trading prospects for Alonso and then pay to keep him, they could just pay Bellinger and play PCA in CF.

Use the prospects to get pitching 

[Derwood]

8 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Instead of trading prospects for Alonso and then pay to keep him, they could just pay Bellinger and play PCA in CF.

Use the prospects to get pitching 

 

Agreed. Bellinger feels like he has a more sustainable career than Alonso. I'm happy to be wrong about him, but I've seen too many other super-slugging first baseman turn into pumpkins 6-7 years into their careers (due to injuries or just losing bat-speed)

[CubinNY]

Bellinger is not playing 1b full time. It's a waste of his talent. Any team who signs him in the offseason will be signing him to play CF.

[squally1313]

Yeah I don't think you really want to be making injuries/consistency part of your pro-Bellinger argument. Cody has missed 31 games this year, Alonso came up in 2019 and has missed 24 games in his career. We've got about 2.5 months of elite offensive performance from Cody in the last 3 years (at 6/30 this year he was carrying a .266/.329/.451 line, good for a 107 wRC). Alonso has never been below 120, throw out 2020 and he's never been below 130. He's had one month below 100 wRC month in the last three years. There are arguments to be made for Cody, but this one isn't it. 

[squally1313]

16 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Call me crazy but I’d [still] rather have around and pay  up for the high level pro athlete without a history of shoulder separation and alot more power 

Is 'Ohtani' the missing word there? 

[CubinNY]

18 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

As far as I can tell there are no rules against signing Ohtani (who I still think Cubs will sign) *and* adding more stars this offseason, even at the cost of prospects

 

Do you know who owns the Cubs?

[Rob]

1 hour ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Imagining the Ricketts’ whole agenda is to not spend money seems shortsighted/ uncritical. All it does is set up a situation in which all they have to do is spend a pittance, maybeeee go over the cap they helped bring in, to swing the narrative just in time for an election year (again)

 

Why would they need to swing the narrative in time for an election year? People don't go thinking "I love seeing the Cubs win, so I'm going to vote for Republican candidates."

The Ricketts will be using the extra cash on hand to fund sleazy GOP candidates who get them a great ROI. They get more out of those investments than they do from having a winning team -- especially in this 3 wild card era.

[Rob]

38 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

It’s cheap, easy, and a better situation to be in for years and years? A gazillion dollars over a billion years isn’t a gazillion dollars, trading prospects doesn’t guarantee a worse Future (2.0), but that won’t stop the average (totally liberal) media outlet and fan from saying otherwise, calling it overpayz, and saying the Ricketts did their part 

I’m not even sure they care about GOP or not. All two parties in the democracy agree on NIMBY

Pete Ricketts spent $12 million to become governor for four years. Jameson Taillon cost us $68 million over four years -- so $17 million for this year alone.

Politics is a lot cheaper to influence than baseball, sadly enough.

[CubinNY]

Let's try and keep this about Alonso. The Ricketts are not going to blow past the luxury tax, so expectations should be that they will spend to it but not over it for an extended period. If they target Ohtani, that's likely it for the Cubs minus some low-cost guys. 

There are other threads to bitch about the Ricketts extra-Cubs activities. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

20 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Let's try and keep this about Alonso. The Ricketts are not going to blow past the luxury tax, so expectations should be that they will spend to it but not over it for an extended period. If they target Ohtani, that's likely it for the Cubs minus some low-cost guys. 

There are other threads to bitch about the Ricketts extra-Cubs activities. 

Alonso is on the high end of what I would expect as a second addition alongside an Ohtani signing, but it really depends on a couple things that we don't have a good handle on.  

1. How far over the LT will they be willing to go, 5 mil v. 15 isn't a lot nominally, but probably significant for how feasible that outcome would be

2. What Ohtani's contract is post-injury, it was assumed he would zoom to 50M AAV, but if he's not pitching in 2024 and especially if he can't hit during some of his recovery, it wouldn't be surprising for that number to come down.  How much is the question.

3. Whether Stroman opts out or not, and by extension whether they want to bring back Hendricks.  There's permutations where the Cubs save 23 million, 7-13 million, or nothing compared to what we thought was the case before the season.

[squally1313]

28 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Alonso is on the high end of what I would expect as a second addition alongside an Ohtani signing, but it really depends on a couple things that we don't have a good handle on.  

1. How far over the LT will they be willing to go, 5 mil v. 15 isn't a lot nominally, but probably significant for how feasible that outcome would be

2. What Ohtani's contract is post-injury, it was assumed he would zoom to 50M AAV, but if he's not pitching in 2024 and especially if he can't hit during some of his recovery, it wouldn't be surprising for that number to come down.  How much is the question.

3. Whether Stroman opts out or not, and by extension whether they want to bring back Hendricks.  There's permutations where the Cubs save 23 million, 7-13 million, or nothing compared to what we thought was the case before the season.

I love the idea of Ohtani and Alonso so much, but I'm a little terrified at the idea of the money for those signings/trades coming from Stroman and/or Hendricks being gone and then using all our financial resources on two offensive players. Next year counts as part of the window too, and going into it with Jordan Wicks as the #2 starter is pretty concerning. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

13 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I love the idea of Ohtani and Alonso so much, but I'm a little terrified at the idea of the money for those signings/trades coming from Stroman and/or Hendricks being gone and then using all our financial resources on two offensive players. Next year counts as part of the window too, and going into it with Jordan Wicks as the #2 starter is pretty concerning. 

Those signings would also give you the flexibility to e.g. turn Morel into a controlled SP, so while it's not my current favorite path, you aren't punting on the 2024 rotation entirely.  Just probably for any substantive FA addition.

[We Got The Whole 9]

2 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Those signings would also give you the flexibility to e.g. turn Morel into a controlled SP, so while it's not my current favorite path, you aren't punting on the 2024 rotation entirely.  Just probably for any substantive FA addition.

What kind of controlled starter can we expect in return for a 1 win player?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

33 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

What kind of controlled starter can we expect in return for a 1 win player?

Just eyeballing BBTV, Bryan Woo or Edward Cabrera are names that match up and you could envision being available.

[CubinNY]

20 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Alonso is on the high end of what I would expect as a second addition alongside an Ohtani signing, but it really depends on a couple things that we don't have a good handle on.  

1. How far over the LT will they be willing to go, 5 mil v. 15 isn't a lot nominally, but probably significant for how feasible that outcome would be

2. What Ohtani's contract is post-injury, it was assumed he would zoom to 50M AAV, but if he's not pitching in 2024 and especially if he can't hit during some of his recovery, it wouldn't be surprising for that number to come down.  How much is the question.

3. Whether Stroman opts out or not, and by extension whether they want to bring back Hendricks.  There's permutations where the Cubs save 23 million, 7-13 million, or nothing compared to what we thought was the case before the season.

I believe that Ohtani's price was not significantly hurt at all by the elbow injury. I also don't believe for a second that the Rickeets would ok spending $30-50M/year/6-10years on Ohtani and then pick up Alonso's salary and extension. And a trade for him only makes sense for the Cubs if they can get an extension.  So, although I have my doubts that they are serious bidders for either of them should Aloson become available, It's outside of my imagination that they would actively pursue both of them.

[javy knows my name]

A propos of nothing, what were the reasons meph lived Khalil Greene

[Cuzi]

9 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

BTW my 2024 Alonso alternative is Bobby Dalbec:

.270/.384/.562/.407/133 @ AAA this year

36% GBs, 46% FBs

High EV hitter

Good 1B defender 

Avg-low chase

.351 and .341 xWOBAs from ‘20-‘21 in the MLB over 545 PAs

I’d go as low as Lewin Diaz, another AAA 1B, if/when Ohtani’s in. Sooooo…probably should get Alonso if that can happen 

Sounds like trading for an older Matt Mervis with more MLB failure when Matt Mervis is already on the team in AAA.