8/22 - Cubs (Smyly) vs Detroit (Olson): 5:40pm, Marquee

[UMFan83]

Just now, chibears55 said:

Is there someone in Tennessee that older(24-26) and has pitched well as of late that could get a jump for a 4-5 inning start against the Pirates ?

Shane Greene was mentioned earlier in this thread

[UMFan83]

Cuas trying to keep us from caring about the 9th inning.

[WhyCantWeWin]

Cuas is due for a big implosion. No control at all 

[chibears55]

4 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Morel now 4 for his last 55

He likely the odd man out of lineup now when or if they do bring PCA up September 1st.

[Jason Ross]

11 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I guess the disconnect for me is that I don't think this is particularly good?  It's basically the bare minimum of what we'd expect of a AAA pitcher with serious MLB aspirations, and we're getting to it by slicing his already minimal AAA time in half.  And this is in the context of a guy pitching once a week and who hasn't hit 90 pitches all year(notably, he's been pulled earlier than pitch count would imply in a couple of these strong recent starts), it just doesn't strike me as a realistic expectation that he can be a functional MLB starter immediately in a playoff chase.

A 22% K% is pretty good though, especially if we're talking about a high GB% pitcher.  I want to be very careful with this, because I'm not saying Wicks=Stroman at all, but Marcus Stroman posted a 20% K% with the Chicago Cubs this year, but because he was really good at using our infield, was having a great season prior to injury.  Should we expect Wicks to dip below 22% K% at the MLB, especially initially?  Yeah sure, he's entering the league and that's a fair expectation and it's likely to occur.  But being a ground ball merchant like Wicks' should be with a fastball (with good vertical movement), a changeup and a curveball can really bring that K% into line.  Historically he's always had good control, and we can probably expect most of that to translate.  Wicks doesn't need to strike out 9+ to be effective.  I'm not saying he's a stud, but there's a guy there.  Honestly, I think he's the most underrated arm in the system today.  Outside of the changeup nothing stands out, but he's just effective.  He's a "sum of all the parts" kind of guy to me.  I think people will be surprised when he comes up with how effective he is.

I also hesitate to worry about pitch counts.  The Cubs are essentially the clubhouse leader in being careful with MiLB arms league wide.  I would expect the Cubs to probably have him around an 80-90 pitch watch in his first start or two, and build from there, but I also think Wicks is capable of more and that a decent amount of this is the Cubs MiLB mandate of watching over their arms.  

I'm not worried about it being a playoff chase right now because the reality is, that's just what it is.  I'm worried about the guy I'd trust the most to get the Cubs into the 5th inning in a pretty safe place.  It's not Smyly.  It's not Killian.  Wesneski can't get LHH out.  So give me the guy who throws strikes, and gets ground balls and has some upside.  It may end up being a damned if you do, damned if you don't regardless, but I'd still go Wicks if I had a pick.

Edited August 23, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[SOFNR]

I don't how Amaya caught that one.

[Irrelevant Dude]

Just now, TomtheBombadil said:

Oh, it's that simple? That's the only thing that has to happen and change for a MiLB SP prospect, even a good one like Wicks, to make his ML debut in middle of a pennant race? Then what happens? Is he in the rotation forever? What if it goes bad? Does he suck if it goes bad and are the Cubs stupid? Insane to me how you guys can play make belief like this but something as simple as Smyly giving a few maybe even 5 innings was like....omgerd unpossible.  Same reacitonary nonsense that had everyone wondering sell or don't sell on a game by game basis. It's not real

Completely missed the point 

[UMFan83]

Maybe Cuas should try throwing overhand, might have more control

[chibears55]

Seems like Ross is sacrificing this game sorta to keep his main pen guys fresh for tomorrow 

[Jason Ross]

Cuas.  Strikes, maybe?

[Irrelevant Dude]

2 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Maybe Cuas should try throwing overhand, might have more control

My 6 year old agrees.

[Andy]

3 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Oh, it's that simple? That's the only thing that has to happen and change for a MiLB SP prospect, even a good one like Wicks, to make his ML debut in middle of a pennant race? Then what happens? Is he in the rotation forever? What if it goes bad? Does he suck if it goes bad and are the Cubs stupid? Insane to me how you guys can play make belief like this but something as simple as Smyly giving a few maybe even 5 innings was like....omgerd unpossible.  Same reacitonary nonsense that had everyone wondering sell or don't sell on a game by game basis. It's not real

I think everybody here understands who you don't want to start but you haven't come horsefeathers close to saying who should. Throwing Drew Smyly in a pennant race seems pretty damn stupid too given evidence at hand.

[Andy]

Having like 5 pitchers you can feel remotely comfortable with on the mound seems like an issue

[abuck1220]

maybe should have traded our #26 prospect for a RP

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

A 22% K% is pretty good though, especially if we're talking about a high GB% pitcher.  I want to be very careful with this, because I'm not saying Wicks=Stroman, but Marcus Stroman posted a 20% K% with the Chicago Cubs this year, but because he was really good at using our infield, was having a great season prior to injury.  Should we expect Wicks to dip below 22% K% at the MLB, especially initially?  Yeah sure, he's entering the league and that's a fair expectation.  But being a ground ball merchant like Wicks' should be with a fastball (with good vertical movement), a changeup and a curveball can really bring that K% into line.  Historically he's always had good control, and we can probably expect most of that to translate.  Wicks doesn't need to strike out 9+ to be effective.  I'm not saying he's a stud, but there's a guy there.  Honestly, I think he's the most underrated arm in the system today.  Outside of the changeup nothing stands out, but he's just effective.  He's a "sum of all the parts" kind of guy to me.  I think people will be surprised when he comes up with how effective he is.

I also hesitate to worry about pitch counts.  The Cubs are essentially the clubhouse leader in being careful with MiLB arms league wide.  I would expect the Cubs to probably have him around an 80-90 pitch watch in his first start or two, and build from there, but I also think Wicks is capable of more and that a decent amount of this is the Cubs MiLB mandate of watching over their arms.  

I hope this is true!  As a changeup guy I can see the argument that he might dodge the harsher adjustment period that comes from platoon side damage at the MLB level, but I think we're underestimating the level gap if we think he can be plug and play right away.  To that point, I don't think Wicks is ready to go even 80-90 pitches on 4 days rest with consistency, especially while making the biggest level jump there is.

[UMFan83]

3 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Oh, it's that simple? That's the only thing that has to happen and change for a MiLB SP prospect, even a good one like Wicks, to make his ML debut in middle of a pennant race? Then what happens? Is he in the rotation forever? What if it goes bad? Does he suck if it goes bad and are the Cubs stupid? Insane to me how you guys can play make belief like this but something as simple as Smyly giving a few maybe even 5 innings was like....omgerd unpossible.  Same reacitonary nonsense that had everyone wondering sell or don't sell on a game by game basis. It's not real

Considering Smyly was able to last 5 innings in just 2 of his last 9 starts, its not impossible but not very likely either.

You are talking about reactionary comments when people have been openly questioning the decision to start Smyly on this board since it was announced.  There was even an article written about it.

[Derwood]

I am no longer interested in seeing Cuas pitch

[Tryptamine]

Well Ross did everything he could to try and lose, let's see if they can overcome that

[UMFan83]

1 minute ago, Andy said:

Having like 5 pitchers you can feel remotely comfortable with on the mound seems like an issue

Burning through the heart of our pen during Royals series may not have cost us yesterday's game or today's game but it certainly made things a lot more dicier both nights.

At the very least everyone important has had at least 1 day off coming into tomorrow.  Guessing they'll prefer to avoid Leiter if they can given that he pitched 3 straight days before this but everyone else should be good to go.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Lange deserves to lose for that ridiculous neck covering, should honestly have to start every batter 1-0 as punishment

[Tryptamine]

Wtf was that showing a bunt with a man on and 2 down

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I hope this is true!  As a changeup guy I can see the argument that he might dodge the harsher adjustment period that comes from platoon side damage at the MLB level, but I think we're underestimating the level gap if we think he can be plug and play right away.  To that point, I don't think Wicks is ready to go even 80-90 pitches on 4 days rest with consistency, especially while making the biggest level jump there is.

I've watched a ton of Jordan Wicks over the last two years...partly because I went into draft-day-2021 with a pretty strong "Don't draft Wicks" mantra (in my defense I wanted Sal Frelick to fall, or the Cubs to go with Montgomery, both who would have been winners, but I digress) and I just needed to "get it" because I just didn't draft night.  My best thing I can say is this: Jordan Wicks reminds me of Jon Lester in so  many ways; the way they act on the mound, the way they attack hitters, the lack of anything that's "overpowering"...  I don't think he is Jon Lester and it's pretty unlikely he'll have that type of a career...but Jordan Wicks has that kind of vibe to me.  It's super subjective, and I don't like being subjective like that...but Wicks won me over.  I have a pretty sneaking suspicion he's going to do that to a lot of people when he gets here.

[Tryptamine]

Not a strike

[Jason Ross]

Well, horsefeathers.  Score 6, you should win most times.  

[UMFan83]

1 minute ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Literally the article called the Cubs stupid for not starting Jordan WIcks on short rest lol....It's being miserable and arbitrary to be miserable and arbitrary from a crowd who has had one foot out of 2023 the entire season

You pick one tiny tidbit to correct and then fold your arms and say "there argument won!"  OK fine, but people have still been talking for a week about hating the decision to start Smyly.

Now you'll probably come back triumphantly and point out that Smyly wasn't even announced as the starter until Sunday so the entire argument I made is wrong